Corona Virus & Day to Day

[GreginND]

Just yesterday, our Governor issued an executive order for people who have tested positive to stay home and self quarantine for 14 days. Just yesterday! I know we are a small low density state, but things are spreading here and many who are infected, haven't even been tested. No order for suspected cases to stay home. *sigh

 

[Stressbaby]

"All models are wrong but some are useful."
-- George Box

 

[ibglowin]

This new report on COVID-19 antibody response shows it's not simple.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10....2IiSIKr4hSXAURdI59jQoGKSZAbVK9XZToBDYK21mq4sM
They’ve analyzed 175 patients discharged from hospitals in Shanghai after coronavirus infection. Neutralizing antibodies appear about 10 to 15 days after the onset of disease (which sounds about right) and target three different regions of the “spike” protein on the virus. (Interestingly, these do not cross-react with the earlier SARS coronavirus spike protein). The total amount in the blood (the titer) varied quite a bit between individuals – notably, younger patients had far lower levels than older ones did, which raises the question of how immune they really are. In fact, ten of those young patients had no detectable neutralizing antibodies at all (!) and overall, about 30% of the entire cohort failed to develop a high antibody titer (although they had similar disease progression before their recovery).

 

[sour_grapes]

This new report on COVID-19 antibody response shows it's not simple.

Thanks for that info. Wishing the news were better...

 

[GreginND]

Today we (the US) went back up and had a record number of new cases in a day. Our number of deaths has also just met that of Spain and after tomorrow, our trend will surpass theirs. What looked like the start of a slowdown a couple days ago has accelerated back up again.

That being said, the tests are not 100% accurate. My colleague most assuredly is infected - has all the symptoms, fever, etc. Their partner has been tested positive with those symptoms, but hers was negative. I also know of at least one other with all the symptoms but cannot get a test. That suggests there are still many out there unknowingly spreading this. I wish my governor would take more definitive actions.

 

[ZebraB]

I wonder what the implications are for vaccines, If 30% of the patients do not get a longer term protection from antibodies.

 

[GreginND]

I wonder what the implications are for vaccines, If 30% of the patients do not get a longer term protection from antibodies.

That's a great question! It would imply that the vaccine would, at best, be 70% effective. Although, even that is better than not vaccinating.

 

[Johnd]

That's a great question! It would imply that the vaccine would, at best, be 70% effective. Although, even that is better than not vaccinating.

That, and the fact that you have to get vaccinated for the flu every year, so there’s no retained immunity there either..... If you get vaccinated for the wrong strain, no joy their either.

 

[GreginND]

That, and the fact that you have to get vaccinated for the flu every year, so there’s no retained immunity there either..... If you get vaccinated for the wrong strain, no joy their either.

The problem isn't retained immunity for the flu vaccine. It is that the flu evolves quickly and our antibodies for the previous year's strains are not recognizing it.

 

[reeflections]

It really doesn't look good.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-JE3L1Cc_Xxp2p8SscTak9IiNhTMFvYHL_3tliWt2s4rA

 

[ibglowin]

This was shocking.. I know NM is one of the poorest states in the US but we have seen nothing like this. I grew up in SA and know full well that there is a huge population that are poor but this pandemic has brought many people to the brink in so many ways.

Six THOUSAND families line up in their cars for hours at a food bank in San Antonio

https://www.soundhealthandlastingwe...cars-for-hours-at-a-food-bank-in-san-antonio/

 

[Boatboy24]

Did I see a Porsche in that pic?


(kidding)

 

[ibglowin]

80% of the population of SA is Hispanic (and low income). Has been that way for 300 years. They live paycheck to paycheck with nothing in the bank for any emergency especially one like this. Couple that with the fact that SA is a huge tourist town these days with not only the Alamo and riverwalk but Fiesta Texas (Six Flags) and Sea World and its no wonder you have lines like that. Even Toyota which employs ~2000 people for the Tundra is shut down.

 

[joeswine]

About 8 years ago my wife and I visited SA, and spent a week there . The town itself was empty,we ate at the Cattlemen's and on the Riverwalk, we walked alot and the town was empty.
The Alamo was great to see and the Valencia hotel was outstanding,but the town itself was empty,from there we went to Brownsville then came home.
Lot of emptyness, the people we meet were great we also were there to see the parade of Roses, ladies and horse's done up in their finest. Outstanding event parade.

 

[OilnH2O]

Back to the topic...
Here in Montana we are seeing a downturn, or lessening, of new cases/day since a high on March 26 (35) trending down through the 20's per day and in the last couple days 15 per day. We have had 6 deaths - one the other day after a couple weeks of 'only' 5, three of which came (sadly) from the same rural senior residence. It's easy enough to "self-isolate" in Montana and the states around us on ANY day! And, people for the most part are following the national guidelines and, our statistics seem to reflect it.
I realize there are places elsewhere in the country where things are more acute, but Inslee (gov of Washington) just released several hundred ventilators back to FEMA - unneeded. Also, he released their 250-bed "pop-up" hospital (built in their event center) was just dismantled for use elsewhere. It never had even one patient. Are things starting to look better across the board?
I just finished up yesterday my pruning of my small (27) vineyard and enjoyed temperatures in the high 60's and bright sun. It was enjoyable! Am I being blinded by that sun or just optimistic? The future looked pretty bright!

 

[sour_grapes]

I caution that the following are my relatively uninformed opinions.

I agree there is reason for optimism. I wouldn't say things are "starting to look better across the board," but almost across the board (in the US). The Kinsa map (US Health Weather Map by Kinsa) is looking good with a few exceptions. Looks like the shutdowns and social distancing is working decently.

Before I get too optimistic, I would need to see:
(1) the current hotspots ALL turn over (WA, MI, NY). I am particularly worried about Florida. IL is worrisome.
(2) No new hotspots emerge. Whether it be the variety of small population centers (like the current cases of Lafayette, LA or Albany, GA) or emerging clusters in large population centers (the Feds are worried about Philly, Baltimore, and DC). In Canada, the virus arrived later, and they aren't expected to peak until late spring.
(3) And I think we face a crapshoot when we ease the lockdown. Hopefully we can ride this out without large flareups by identifying and containing emerging clusters. Remember, that was really the plan all along. Until we get a treatment or a prophylaxis, we should only hope to be able to slow, not eliminate, the spread. ("Flatten the curve.")
(4) Remember, there are large swaths of the world's population that have not yet been hit hard AND are probably going to have trouble handling it. I am thinking of, say, Brazil, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, sub-Saharan Africa... These areas could "keep the flame alive" in a dangerous way.
(5) Reinfection. Once things return to some degree of normality, we could, at any time, face flare-ups of the variety that kicked this party off to begin with.

 

[Boatboy24]

I think we are nearing peak here in the DC Metro. I've been tracking (and graphing) total cases and new daily cases each day for weeks now. This week, we had a couple big days, and also a couple very low days. My company declared "work from home if you can" around the 9th of March and by the end of that week, 80% of us were doing so. We've been over 90% for 3-4 weeks now. Many others did the same about a week later. Virginia and Maryland governors declared the stay at home orders on the 30th of March, IIRC. So we are nearing the two week mark of significant distancing - 4 weeks with moderate distancing. Anxious to see what the next 5-7 days look like, but think it'll still be (or should be) 3-4 weeks AFTER peak that we start to relax some restrictions. Certainly not a full return to 'normal' though.

 

[joeswine]

Only time will tell and even then we can't be sure. Can we.

 

[ibglowin]

The problem is. This is just the first wave. That is all. There will be a secondary, a tertiary........ We go back to anything like it was before and the waves will be worse than the first IMHO. Until there is a vaccine we are sadly going to look like Asia for the last few years (wear mask out in public) or risk the fate of COVID-19.

 

[Ted Brumleve]

Herd immunity will limit this virus once 60+% of us have been exposed. That is likely to happen before any vaccine can be in widespread use, about 18 months. So unfortunately, we'll have to catch it to be immune.