Corona Virus & Day to Day

[Johnd]

Interestingly, Virginia will have been 'closed' for two weeks tomorrow (Tuesday). A lot of schools and businesses sent people home a week or two prior to that. But we're still seeing 'studies' (they're mostly opinion pieces) stating that we won't peak until June. So much out there, that you can't believe any of it.

Our schools last day was March 13, closed non-essential businesses on March 22, statewide stay at home on March 23. Here’s our new cases graph:

We got started with infections pretty early here, Mardi Gras may be the reason. It takes 2 - 3 weeks for the efforts to show up, folks infected in the last few days before the orders were issued may take up to two weeks to show signs and go for a test, several more days before the results are reported. The stats you see today are about what happened, infection-wise, 2 - 3 weeks ago. If your state does it well, you’ll see results.

As our cases go down, I’m skeptical that will be the end, as folks start to venture out again and start it all back up. We‘ll see........

 

[Rice_Guy]

. . . . Some have made it sound like life as we know it will be brutally altered - ie .. IMHO,

* the national debt load has been bad and will be worse, , , , i an saddened to think what we are doing to our kids and grandkids
* it is amazing to see all the creativity on you tube/ the web. I hope it stays
* my kids take it as a given ordering off the web, , more of us old farts will shift that direction
*

 

[joeswine]

Take a breath and try to be productive at home and appreciate what one has.

 

[Stressbaby]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316
They tested every woman presenting to labor and delivery for SARS-CoV2. Of 215 women, 33 were positive and 29 of those were asymptomatic on admission. Would be interesting to know how many of the negatives are seropositive. Also indirectly highlights the fact that people don't die directly from the virus. they die in large part from the cytokine storm that results in ARDS. Figuring out how to preventing the cytokine storm, myocarditis, and other secondary effects will be important in managing the disease.

 

[GreginND]

There seems to be lots and lots of speculation out there and no one knows what to trust. I think it is important to step back, take a deep breath, and continue to follow the science as it comes out. The honest truth is we won't have all the answers about the pandemic until it is over. It is quite useless to try to make too many comparisons with past pandemics and flues that are not yet justified by the data. I do think it is important to err on the side of caution because there are many otherwise healthy people of all ages dying unexpectedly right now.

There has been some talk about herd immunity. A new study that just came out suggests that the R0 number (transmission rate) for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is twice what they originally estimated (5 vs 2-3). That means it is more contagious than thought. If true, estimates of needing 60% immune for herd immunity are too low. This would suggest we need about 85% immunity for "herd immunity" protection. That means we really really need to develop a good vaccine for this as soon as we can.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

 

[Kraffty]

So just for a break from some of these confusing and scary stats, my wife had orders 4 packs of toilet paper weeks ago. We were expecting a total of 48 rolls of 3 ply standard size rolls at about 16.50 a pack or 1.37 a roll. Higher than the store but not killer. They took forever to ship and we finally contacted the seller who said they'll ship in a couple of more days. In the mean time the ad had been pulled due to a "mistake in the ad" and when the first package arrived it had 5 rolls of single (very thin single ply) at about 3/4 the dia. of a standard roll but still at 16.50 a pack.

I'm generally a pretty skeptical buyer compared to my wife but the flat out, in your face, gouging in a crisis genuinely upset me. We of course sent them back billed to the senders account and wrote a trashing review of the seller. Not that it matters.

Anyway, on the way back from dropping off those returns (I sent them back as four separate shipments to increase his cost) we stopped in at walmart just as they were putting some TP on the shelf, karma's not always a bad girl. I did resist the temptation to buy more than one 12 pack but ultimately decided to do as I preach and not be a part of the overall problem. We'll hopefully have better supplies and calmer attitudes 30 days from now or we'll go back to spraying each other down with a garden hose.......

Stay well and make note of JoesWine attitude and assurances in his posts and keep posting pertinent info like JohnD's Death causes per day, what an eye opener, I know I had a much more caviler attitude a month ago than now.

Mike

 

[Boatboy24]

Another good day - fingers crossed.

 

[OilnH2O]

Putting it into perspective, the comparison to other diseases / events, as we get this thing under control, the deaths per day won’t continue at that rate. Here in LA, we peaked (new cases) 10 days ago, 2 - 3 weeks after closing non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing. Most other states are doing the same, but not all.

Ah! "perspective" - that's exactly what is needed right now!
The graph in Boatboy's post yesterday is what is happening in a lot of places - it is well on its way down here in Montana, having peaked on March 26th.
So, what is happening in New York, particularly NYC and across the river in northern NJ is completely different from the LA basin, much less here in Montana (under 400 cases; 197 recovered; only 50 have been hospitalized; 24 are hospitalized today; 7 have died.)
And that "covid vs. daily average cause of death" graph Johnd posted, is really instructive - I think that is the "curve" that people talk about flattening. It updates and now is at 1535 (as of 4/13) but will continue to settle to something much lower. How much? Who knows, but probably more like the flu/pneumonia level. The two at the top, heart disease and cancer, aren't going to change until a "cure" is found.
So, my optimism is still positive, even though we have 4 inches of new snow on the ground this morning, and it's still coming down! Why be optimistic? Because the high today is supposed to be 45* - and that means no shoveling (we're not going anywhere) -- so, it's all going to melt!
(Wash your hands)

 

[Boatboy24]

Yesterday's numbers were updated, but we're still trending down.

 

[Johnd]

We’re also continuing the lower trend, though a bit level the last few days, hopefully it’ll continue on its downward trajectory.

 

[ibglowin]

We have the fortune of having a very proactive Governor that enacted a shelter in place for the entire State back in mid March when schools were shuttered. The curve has been flattening the last few days with new cases dropping down in the less than 10% (increase day over day) the last 3 days running now. Deaths however are shooting up with a 20% increase day over day just yesterday. These numbers are low compared to most any other State for the most part as we only have ~2.0M people total (5th in size)

Our biggest issue now is the explosion of new cases and deaths on the Navajo Nation (Four Corners region) as well as some of the other Pueblos in and around ABQ. The Pueblos enacted a complete closure this weekend for 48 hours (no one in or out) trying to slow the spread. Native Americans make up less that 11% of the State population but are currently closing in on almost 40% of the COVID-19 cases State wide. It doesn't look like we will be anywhere near peak ICU capacity or Vent capacity (which is not much by any means) as NM seems to be doing much better than other States in staying home. Our peak is pushed out to April 26th because of this. Data from covid19.heathdata.org

 

[ibglowin]

Latest numbers as of 4/14/20

 

[mainshipfred]

Latest numbers as of 4/14/20

View attachment 60154

This is the first I have seen positive vs total tested results. I think this statistic is really important in preparing models that seems to get overlooked.

 

[ibglowin]

They are doing 48 hour TAT on test these days. A few weeks ago they set up a drive through testing site here in Los Alamos County They had 200 test on hand and only 135 people came. Testing requirements have been reduced. You no longer have to be running a fever or showing signs. If you have been exposed or think you may have been exposed. You can/will be tested. The (2) National Laboratories in NM are helping out with testing supplies, reagents, and even high throughput testing machines if the need arises.

 

[sour_grapes]

Sometimes it is good to have 1 National Lab per million population!

 

[ibglowin]

Amen!

Sometimes it is good to have 1 National Lab per million population!

 

[GreginND]

I would be carefully trying to make sense of positives and negatives. My colleague has tested negative twice now but she undoubtedly has all the symptoms and lingering fever. Her husband tested positive.

 

[joeswine]

Well to day is my birthday and I thought I be in Utah or Charleston or even making plans for the end of the month for south of France and a wine and food tour, but alas here I am stuck doing house work and floundering around my humble abode, keep up your spirits my Vino friends the end is just around the corner, now what can I find to keep me company??

 

[mainshipfred]

Well to day is my birthday and I thought I be in Utah or Charleston or even making plans for the end of the month for south of France and a wine and food tour, but alas here I am stuck doing house work and floundering around my humble abode, keep up your spirits my Vino friends the end is just around the corner, now what can I find to keep me company??

There is a lot easier way to open that bottle rather than cutting it on a 45 or 90.

 

[Kraffty]

Happy Birthday Joe, All the best to you. I'm sure you'll find a way to make you day as enjoyable as possible under the circumstances.
Fred, damn how did I miss that, funny,
Mike