Estimating sediment

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Any suggestions about estimating the volume of sediment that will be produced?
I started a batch of cranberry mead recently. Started at slightly over 3 1/2 gallons of must but after fermentation this is what I got.
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In addition to this I have a 1/2 gallon jug that is 90+% full of sediment. When I racked I knew there was a lot of sediment but needed to fill the carboy. I used 9 lbs of cranberries that have been macerating in honey for several months and 1 banana. Never suspected I would lose this much. Has been setting since 7/8 and doesn't seem to be compacting. I will rack again into a couple of 1 gallon jugs but that is not ideal. If I had known I would have started a larger batch
 
The only bit that will be produced is the yeast that has grown throughout the first third of the primary fermentation process. Aside from that part of the solids at the end, the sediment you end up with is the sum of sediments you put into it.

Grape wine doesn’t seem to have as much sediment because we typically take the juice off the skins and seeds through pressing, return to a carboy and then rack off the gross lees then the fine lees sometime later on. The skins and seeds were still part of what made up the sediment. You can see this more so when doing extended maceration where everything is still in there until for 6-8 weeks. And grapes have a lot of juice comparatively.

When doing a mead, I really have very little sediment, however an apple wine gives me quite a lot, as do other fruit wines. One way to get more juice from your sediment is to compact it more by putting it in the fridge. The lees compact down and you have more juice to put back towards your total volume. Yours are still a bit fluffy and I imagine you could get more out of them. You also still have some time, as they won’t start to break down further until I think 3 months. Someone will have to fact check me on that though.

This was a bit of an ah-ha moment for me when I was doing a kit wine with extra skin packs. “Fill to the six gallon mark then add the skins” vs. “Add the skins then fill to the six gallon mark”. When you take out the skins in the second scenario, you have less than six gallons.
 
The pulp from the fruit? did you use a mesh bag to filter before adding to the carboy? some fruits i lose about 20% voulme
 
Tomato is another one that drops a lot of sediment. I started with 3 gallons and ended up with 2.

As far as estimating how much, that just comes from making some or seeing if anyone else here on WMT has made whatever you are making. This was my second batch of tomato and others here said all the color drops, so I was aware of what to expect.
 

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The pulp from the fruit? did you use a mesh bag to filter before adding to the carboy?
Cranberries and banana were put in a bag then added to primary. I did add 1/2 oz dried elderberry directly to primary, mostly for color. The bag was removed at 1.020 and squeezed vigorously. The volume of the bag had decreased significantly but not more than other fruit wines I have made. I did not filter while racking, started out racking the clear liquid but as I got closer to the bottom I could see that I was racking significant sediment, thought it was more important to fill the carboy than avoid it.

I did a peach last year that had a lot of sediment but I was expecting it to so started at 4+ gallons. I don't remember there being much more than this.
“Fill to the six gallon mark then add the skins”
How would you do this with fruit wines? I always assumed that 70-80% of the fruit is liquid and only added enough water to get to my desired volume plus 1-2 quarts for topping off.

So, if I understand, if I add bentonite, put into the refrigerator then wait up to 3 months I should be able to recover more cleared mead.
 
As Joni said, it's a lot of experience from what you've done and what others here have experienced as well. What's tough is that so much goes into the estimation that it may be difficult to account for all the variables (sugar content - has it rained and diluted the sugar in the fruit, size of the fruit, type of fruit, combinations of fruit, density...) That's the art.

All the above are also reasons folks look to try and adjust fruit content for flavor, sugar content to meet a particular SG for alcohol content, and pH to meet typical fermentation ranges and tastes. What works this year may not be the same for next. Two ways to help break down fruit to get the most flavor and liquid content out of them is to freeze them first, and to use pectic enzyme to help break down the cell walls. Some folks will do both - add enzyme to begin the process then freeze. You end up with a lot of broken down lees and less formed solids, and a bit more potential for liquid, sugars, etc... Once everything warms up and has mixed thoroughly you can get a good SG and adjust as needed. These are all to your taste. You're drinking it. You can also always back sweeten or add flavor on the back end if you want (fpack). It's still a good idea to keep the pH in a decent range, however, to help prevent spoilage and microorganisms from enjoying your work, and so that it isn't too flabby (higher pH) or acidic (lower pH).

I've tried to use a bag with fruit and grape skins but am apparently bag-challenged. So I just throw it all in to swim around as it pleases and then strain it later and press it if needed. You can get a lot more juice when using a mechanical press, even simple ones. @Rice_Guy has some from plastic tubes and clamps, there are bucket presses, and a host of others going on up to basket presses of various kinds.

Bentonite can add in both fermentation nucleation sites for yeast, and in dropping lees since they drop faster when clumped and heavier. There are some studies and folks that say bentonite may strip some color and/or flavor. I'm not sure but it's a possibility. I'll typically put the lees in the fridge and wait. I believe using a taller container allows for more pressure in the column than a short wide one.
 
tried to use a bag with fruit and grape skins but am apparently bag-challenged. So I just throw it all in to swim around as it pleases and then strain it later and press it if needed. You can get a lot more juice when using a mechanical press, even simple ones.
* low pressure helps, ,,, slow removal of liquid prevents gross rupture, and gives the longest life. the action is basically liquid weeping. High pressure with small pores is likely to blind the filter/ create an impervious surface with minimal porosity
* there are several grades of filter bag, coarse bags can stop about a 1/16”,the latest ones that I’ve tried are nut milk bags. Nut milk bags have finer pores than fine nylon bags from the wine supply store. For this application I wonder how well lees would be filtered, ,,, again a low pressure differential produces more volume even though it takes longer.
* filter aid, example rice hulls create longer channels that last longer

i haven’t tried filtering lees, another test to run someday
 
update: I added bentonite on 7/24 and after 3 days put the carboy into a spare refrigerator, 3 1/2 weeks later there is no discernible change in the amount of lees. I racked to two 1 gallon jugs plus 1 quart flip top.

This week I want to start a 5 gallon batch of elderberry using fresh/frozen berries. What should my initial target volume be to get 5 gallons plus maybe 3/4-1 quart for top off? Is 6 gallons enough? If I want to use 3 lbs/gallon of elderberries should I use 15 lbs for the 5 gal or 18 lbs since my initial volume will be 6 gallons and later racked down to 5?
 

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