WineXpert How many bottles = 12 month supply?

[Chilled]

I'm trying to plan out a 12 month rotation for my wines. That is, I need to make enough wine during the winter to last for a 12 month period.
Considering what I drink, gift and share with family and friends. I think it will be around 250 bottles per year. Or, about 50 gallons.
But, it could be higher.
If I lived in a colder climate I'm sure it would be higher. Since I seem to enjoy wine more in cooler temperatures than on a warm summer day.

So, how much wine do YOU need to make per year, to keep your supply on an even keel?

I suspect this amount could vary greatly depending on where you live (climate) and how much you share with others.
But thanks for sharing, as it will give me an idea as to where I stand.
Dave

 

[dralarms]

As much as I give away I make the legal 200 gallons. No more no less

 

[bkisel]

I'm guessing, now that I've pretty much got some stock built up, maybe around 42-60 gallons (7-10 6 gallon batches). I've only been at this hobby for 14 months so this time next year I'll likely have a narrower and more accurate estimate.

 

[eblasmn9]

I have been keeping track of consumption and give aways for the last two years. 2012 was aprox 54 gallons and last year it increased to 66 gallons.

 

[Dino466]

I am making between 72 and 84 gallons per year. With giving a lot away and storing some for the future ( hard to do) . I having been at it for 3 years - I figure I will slow down to roughly 60 gallons.

 

[jojabri]

This is my first full year, and I'm planning on making the legal 200 this year (the bug bit me HARD!!!). With our consumption, giveaways, and trying to build up a cellar, it looks like it may be necessary.

 

[cmason1957]

My wife and I generally make between 150 and 200 gallons per year. With giveaways, competitions and drinking we just barely keep up.

 

[bakervinyard]

Last year I estimate that I made about 150 gallons. It's not nearly enough though. I have 2 grown kids who love my wines, also my better half is good for at least 2/3 of a bottle a day. LOL, Bakervinyard

 

[FTC Wines]

I need 400+ bottles a year to break even! That is 350 for us to consume & at least 50 to give away. As I type this I realized that we give at least 40 to my son so I guess I need 450+ a year. And the longer you make it the more you give away!! Roy

 

[byathread]

I think about 250/yr with about 50 of those being gifted. But as I need to build up a cellar, I hope to start 10 kits in my first full year! (Halfway there and still have 7 months to go!)

 

[Dugger]

It appears you are making kit wine so you will need to make about 10 kits per year to meet your demand. When you factor in aging of your wine it gets a little more complex when starting out. If you are making mist kits, aging is really not necessary so just make enough to keep up with your needs. White wine kits require some aging so try to let them sit for maybe 3 months before drinking. Red wine requires more aging so these should sit for say 6 months before drinking. As well, the quality of the kit will determine the amount of aging needed to reach its potential - the smaller kits like the times mentioned above and the larger kits more time (say 6-12 months for a white and 12-24 months for a red).
You should look at your consumption needs based on these aging factors and then plan a kit schedule to meet these needs. It may sound complicated but once you look at it, it is not. The hardest part is getting your cellar initially stocked, likely meaning doubling up of some kits or putting away a case from each batch to fully age. Once you get it to where you want it, maintenance of your stock is relatively straightforward.
So look at what you need/want and make a plan. If you need more help setting this up, there are lots of knowledgeable folks on here to help you.

 

[sour_grapes]

Dugger's post is very good. I have been planning to start a thread on "cellar math" that addresses his points quantitatively.

In the meantime, I can answer your question for my situation. I figure I drink 4 bottles/week. Therefore, I need to make about 7 kits/year, or 210 bottles/year to replace what I consume. However, my goal is to establish an inventory where I will have aged wine to drink. For that, I plan to have an inventory of about 700 bottles. To get to this point, I will make 12 kits/year for the next three years. After that, I can taper off to 7 kits/year.

 

[ffemt128]

I'm with most here. I'm going to say we make between 150-200 gallons through out the course of the year. I have 2 sons that always stop by when they need wine and we give a lot away. During the week we will go through 3-5 bottles of wine with meals etc....Slowly building up the cellar again so the Chilean can age longer...

 

[Chilled]

Thank you for all the replies and insight.

Yes, at this time I am making mist kits. But with the tweaks I use, I like to age them 6 to 9 months.
I've found that I need to make significantly more wine than I drink and gift to build up the needed supply for aging. This seems to be the hardest part!

Getting enough made and in the cellar, so I can start my rotation of wine that is aged enough to be good, will be my first goal.
It is awful having wine in the bottles but with none of it ready to drink. I intend to avoid this situation in the future.
As Doug stated, at that point I will just need to replace what is used.

So, for 6 months minimum aging I need an 18 to 21 month supply to get this plan rolling. At this time I am well on my way there. Next winter should be enjoyable. Let it snow!

I appreciate all your' replies, as it has me thinking a little farther into this.
And, realizing just how much wine I really need to make NOW.

Dave

 

[jsiddall]

Agree with sour_grapes -- ideally you want to make enough up front that you will only be drinking well-aged bottles after a few years.

I created a spreadsheet to predict all this, with age in the columns along the top and elapsed time in rows along the left. I used 9 months per row/column, with the columns going from 0 to 45 months, but you can use whatever granularity you like.

The cells themseves contain the number of bottles at each combination of age and future date. the formula for each cell is essentially the value of the cell one row up and one column to the left minus any bottles consumed in that period. It's harder to explain than to build.

However, if all that sounds too ambitious then the simple math version is to take the number of bottles you want to consume per year, multiply it by the minimum age you want to consume them at and make that many bottles right now. Then make the number of bottles you want to consume per year every year going forward.

For example, assume you want to consume 100 bottles per year and you want to drink them no earlier than 2 years. Starting now make 100 x 2 = 200 bottles and then make another 100 per year every year from then on.

2 years from now you can start drinking your 2 year old bottles. You will have 200 - 2 year old bottles, 100 - 1 year old bottles and 100 brand new bottles (or equiv. in a carboy if you prefer bulk aging, when you bottle is up to you).

3 years from now you will be drinking the last 100 bottles of your first batches which are now 3 years old, and you will have 100 bottles that are 2 years old, 100 that are 1 year old and 100 brand new bottles.

4 years from now you be finishing your 4 year old bottles and can start drinking the bottles you made at the 1 year mark which are now 3 years old. Hopefully you can see the pattern.

From then on you should have a steady supply of 3-4 year old bottles to enjoy so long as you choose to keep making them.

Of course you can change the numbers in the calculation above to suite your plans. You can also make variants. Like if you don't want 3-4 year old bottles over the long term instead opting for 2-3 year old bottles then just don't make making any in year 1. Eventually all your bottles will be 2-3 years old.

 

[Boatboy24]

Dugger's post is very good. I have been planning to start a thread on "cellar math" that addresses his points quantitatively.

In the meantime, I can answer your question for my situation. I figure I drink 4 bottles/week. Therefore, I need to make about 7 kits/year, or 210 bottles/year to replace what I consume. However, my goal is to establish an inventory where I will have aged wine to drink. For that, I plan to have an inventory of about 700 bottles. To get to this point, I will make 12 kits/year for the next three years. After that, I can taper off to 7 kits/year.

Your situation is almost identical to mine. I'm in this thing just over 2 years now, and I've been making 350-400 bottles each year. My original goal was to get to the point where I had a 2 year supply, then go into maintenance levels of production. I'm tapering slightly this year and will continue that gentle glide path until I land at my "normal" production levels in another 18-24 months.

 

[cmason1957]

To get to this point, I will make 12 kits/year for the next three years. After that, I can taper off to 7 kits/year.

I'm tapering slightly this year and will continue that gentle glide path until I land at my "normal" production levels in another 18-24 months.

What is this tapering of which you speak? I seem to be buying more and more carboys and making more and more each year.

 

[sour_grapes]

Yeah, even as I wrote that, I was thinking "Do I really think I will taper??"

 

[Boatboy24]

Yeah, even as I wrote that, I was thinking "Do I really think I will taper??"

Same here.

To give you some idea: 6 months ago, I thought I'd be doing 4 kits this year, along with 2 (maybe 3) batches of juice/grapes. I ordered 4 LE kits in October. Then I learned the CC Yakima Syrah was being discontinued, so i grabbed one of those. Then I learned that WinExpert was doing an LE Rose kit, so I grabbed one of those. Then I learned that my original blend of Chilean grapes maybe needed more Cab and Merlot and less Syrah. So that batch grew in size with more Cab and Merlot. Then I decided to do a Viognier bucket. Then...

 

[JohnT]

I ensure that I only have well aged wine to drink. I simply let my wine bulk age for two years. This does mean that I need twice the amount of equipment (since I make wine each year), but I find that it is well worth it!