This thread illustrates what I believe is the hardest part for a new winemaker -- who is right?
The problem is that the answer often is "everyone". In winemaking, there is often more than 1 valid answer for any question. Deciding which choice to go with can be difficult, and should be based upon the new winemaker's interests, desires, and risk tolerance.
Whattaya wanna make? Chateau Petrus or Chateau Plonk? How much ya wanna invest? $ or $$$? Are ya gonna quit if the first batch doesn't turn out well?
@heatherd's advice to start with a juice bucket will get you closer to Petrus than Plonk. It's higher risk as the newbie is relying on advice from the internet (and we all know just how reliable that is!) and has more money invested, but the results have a greater chance of being really good. [There is great support here, as dozens of us put a lot of effort into helping beginners make successful wines.]
Kits? The risk is lower as the cost is often lower and the instructions from reputable vendors are really good. It's not going to be Petrus, but it will be better than Plonk. Starting with a low end kit ($60 to $100 USD) works, although the higher end kits will
often produce a better result. [If there's a bottle left from that 1st batch a year later, you're unusual, regardless of what you make.]
I hadn't considered
@NorCal's advice to start with Skeeter Pee and/or Dragon's Blood, but he's also spot on. The financial risk is lower, but the risk is a
bit higher than kits. Both are at the Plonk level, but who cares? They're FUN! And the process is essentially the same if you're pouring 4 bottles of RealLemon into the bucket or crushing the grapes you mortgaged the next 12 generations to purchase from Petrus.
The only stupid question is the one you don't post. Pick a first wine and get crackin'!
Off the record, I realize I'm never gonna make Chateau Petrus, and I'm cool with making fun wines that people enjoy. THAT is one of the points of winemaking. If folks have an empty glass out for a refill, you've succeeded.