Yep, tested before we bought. We have a walkout basement with 2 doors and 3 or 4 full size windows. And the 2015's were fine (except for the Cab, which had a low pH). Need to retest the pH on the Chileans once they are fully degassed.
Okay, might be reaching here, and at this point there may be no way to test it. In a post on another thread there was the discussion of SO2 levels and pH. In that article (pdf) there was this:
Different strains of yeast can produce anywhere from 10 ppm to 80 ppm during primary alcoholic fermentation. Most commercial strains for winemaking produce only 10 – 30 ppm, so they are generally preferred.
I researched the yeasts I know you used in the Spring (BM4x4, D254 and RP15 - don't know what you used for the Syrah). And two of them are moderate SO2 producers during fermentation (BM4x4 and RP15), but we would have to find out what is the moderate range. Historically Merlot can also be an issue on it's own when it comes to MLF.
So is it possible that if the buckets were over sulfited, you may have added sulfite to the whole grapes, and with the added sulfite the yeast produces during fermentation, coupled with certain pH's, could the SO2 be just high enough to make it tough on the MLB, even though I know you used VP41 eventually? (I think your pH's were Cab 3.27, Merlot 3.26, Syrah 3.53 and Carm 3.42).
I think the only way we could have ever known is if we checked the free SO2 level right before pitching the MLB. The common factor in this could be that a lot of us had issues this Spring, which could point to over sulfiting of the buckets, in general.
I know I'm grasping, but I haven't heard any other better ideas yet.
Edit: Interesting short article:
http://www.lallemandwine.com/wp-con...-Wine-Yeast-During-Alcoholic-Fermentation.pdf
Edit 2: an even more interesting booklet, just a little big size wise:
http://www.scottlab.com/pdf/ScottlabsHandbook2016.pdf