Corona Virus & Day to Day

[BernardSmith]

Many thanks GreginND,
The DIGG article was based on (I believe) data from recorded deaths in March and not an account of deaths per year etc which likely nvolves corrections so while the count may be subject to corrections the numbers of deaths are those deaths that were recorded and which are part of the public record for the month (but I am skeptical that that record is as up-to-date as the author of the article suggests: how quickly do different states collect and then make accessible the record of deaths that took place the previous day or week or even month? and how quickly is it possible to determine a cause of death when the deceased has died suddenly (a car accident that is determined to be suicide, a car accident that was caused by a sudden cardiac arrest etc).. That said, I am sure that unless the numbers for any cause of death is significantly different (statistically speaking) in any one month that that might suggest either a recording error or some peculiarity affecting the health of the nation that may need accounting for.

 

[1d10t]

Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.

My wife was in and out of ICU in two different hospital systems over a period of 3 months. I didn't see anything near this mortality rate. Where did you get this figure from?

 

[user 32114]

How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks

Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure changes in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all

if your going to bring in deaths by guns, then you 'll need to bring in the deaths by bicycles, wasp stings and so on that are multiples higher than gun death, and that argument borders on politics ,, yes/no??????
Dawg

 

[Johnd]

Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.

Thats just not right. I’m the Board Chair of a large hospital, mortality rates are nowhere near that number. Here’s an article you can read if you like, or Google up some more. ICU Outcomes | Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies

 

[BernardSmith]

My wife was in and out of ICU in two different hospital systems over a period of 3 months. I didn't see anything near this mortality rate. Where did you get this figure from?

My thinking is similar to yours, 1d10t. I would have put the numbers closer to about 10-18 % but I have seen a paper written by scholars from Turkey, (published in the US) that suggested a 50% mortality rate at ICUs as standard... The paper did not suggest that the data that was being used came from anywhere but Istanbul but I could be mistaken. But that said, there seems to be two kinds of deaths that take place in ICUs - the expected and the unexpected deaths and the "expected" deaths might in fact be quite high given that doctors in the US go way beyond extraordinary lengths to preserve life for even a few hours and those lengths might require ICU facilities.

if your going to bring in deaths by guns, then you 'll need to bring in the deaths by bicycles, wasp stings and so on that are multiples higher than gun death, and that argument borders on politics ,, yes/no??????
Dawg

I don't know that I was discussing deaths by guns. I am a medical sociologist, Dawg, and illness and death interests me but I don't know that you have any idea of my views on firearms and I don't discuss my political views on this forum. Sorry.

 

[bstnh1]

My wife was in and out of ICU in two different hospital systems over a period of 3 months. I didn't see anything near this mortality rate. Where did you get this figure from?

Sorry about the bad numbers. When I rechecked that, I discovered the site I was on was in Istanbul! The U.S rate is 8-15%. Big difference.

 

[user 32114]

How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks

Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure changes in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all

just when you bring in firearms as a example, then you should not leave out causes of death that is multiples greater than firearms, that's all i'm saying, when people of all stripes use firearms as examples they always tend to leave out things that cause death mupitles greater the firearm example, which tends to be the most politically devise example that is made in political arguments, your pick for a example that is a mediocre example at best, it is not a dig at you, it merally points out a misused example, now if by means of citing a mediocre example of death might befitting beings so far the death rate is not the greatest factor, contagabilty is the greatest factor,
Dawg

 

[Rice_Guy]

@GreginND great insight!
An after effect I hadn’t seen on the web, , number 1 son has a boss from China who went through COVID who has continuing breathing issues when he exercises as walking up the stairs.

 

[sour_grapes]

if your going to bring in deaths by guns, then you 'll need to bring in the deaths by bicycles, wasp stings and so on that are multiples higher than gun death, and that argument borders on politics ,, yes/no??????

Well. that is certainly misleading.

During 2000–2017, a total of 1,109 deaths from hornet, wasp, and bee stings occurred, for an annual average of 62 deaths. Deaths ranged from a low of 43 in 2001 to a high of 89 in 2017.
Source: National Vital Statistics System. Underlying cause of death data, 1999–2017. Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2018 Request.

 

[user 32114]

Well. that is certainly misleading.

the so on, was meant to include bicycles and peanuts, ect, ect, but feel free, i know i do!!!! at the risk of being offence i typed this real slowly for you, now if you wish to childishly wish to ban me feel free, as for this thread this is my very last response on this thread PERIOD,
D\awg ,,,

 

[sour_grapes]

It happens that my best friend was one of those 1109 killed by wasp stings. I believe it was YOU who cautioned others against carelessly citing "mediocre" statistics.

 

[Stressbaby]

Apologies if this was posted earlier, but this is a useful site from UWash: IHME | COVID-19 Projections US and state-by-state forecasts.
As some of you know, I'm a physician. I trained in the HIV/AIDS era 1983-1991. This is way scarier to me.
We are fortunate to have folks with military backgrounds leading the COVID work in our org.

 

[GreginND]

Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.

I'm not sure where you are getting your information, but the consensus seems to be about 9-19%, on average, mortality for normal ICU operations in the US.

 

[GreginND]

Not to be a downer, but the data keeps getting worse for the US. Our number of daily new infections continues to accelerate with over 32,000 new confirmed cases yesterday. It appears the US is somewhat unique in the world for not being able to at least slow the rate of new infections by this time after first cases. It may be that our country is large and the virus is spreading in waves over the larger population centers. But it is concerning that people are still out and about and not taking precautions. There are many people infected who don't know it and are seemingly healthy. THEY should be wearing masks to prevent spread to others. Masks are most useful for keeping those shedding the virus from spreading it.

 

[bstnh1]

Total projected deaths are still less than the 1968 Swine Flue that killed 1 million worldwide and 100,000 in the U.S.

 

[ibglowin]

Is there any adjustment for population? The data has to be normalized in some fashion or it would seem to be apples and oranges.

Not to be a downer, but the data keeps getting worse for the US. Our number of daily new infections continues to accelerate with over 32,000 new confirmed cases yesterday.

 

[Boatboy24]

Is there any adjustment for population? The data has to be normalized in some fashion or it would seem to be apples and oranges.

That'll make China look great! (if you believe their numbers).

 

[ibglowin]

I don't believe theirs or Russia.

That'll make China look great! (if you believe their numbers).

 

[GreginND]

Is there any adjustment for population? The data has to be normalized in some fashion or it would seem to be apples and oranges.

Well, that is a bit complicated because there are many factors. Population densities vary a lot across the country. Normalizing to percent population doesn't tell much other than maybe some kind of individual risk. The absolute numbers of infections and new infections per day do tell us something about whether the infections are accelerating or slowing down. Total population is not a factor, but the absolute number of connections between people transmitting it is.

The data is only as good as the testing, of course. But every country does seem to show the same trends over time. The US has not shown any kind of slow down yet, even though many have been distancing. I don't think we are doing enough. Perhaps a better comparison is the number of New Cases per Day for the US compared with all of Europe. I have just done that comparison. The data sources are different, but what is clear is that the trend (shown by the 5 day rolling average lines) for the US is not showing ANY slowdown yet. Europe, however, is definitely showing a change in the rate of infection.

 

[Johnd]

One reason we‘ve seen no slowing yet is that all states aren’t reacting the same, some have taken full measures weeks before the others. The governors of the states make the call, and some seem oblivious to what’s going on across a political (but not environmental) border. My state was shut down quite some time before our neighbors, for instance, but the virus doesn’t respect these borders, and it was already in the bordering states anyway, just hadn’t manifested through symptoms and testing. Now the neighboring state rates are starting to blossom as their residents go about their normal activities, and then their governors issued stay at home orders. Had they understood earlier, and issued the order earlier, they may have averted higher rates. In all fairness, many people will ignore these orders if they can’t see numbers to explain why it’s been issued. This scenario is playing out across the country, and it will progress until everyone who continues to expose themselves gets sick or starts to heed the orders. Those of us who choose to protect ourselves just have to wait them out.