3.5 Billion bottles of wine went unsold last year.....
Further Evidence Wine Sales Are Plummeting........
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Interesting video that evokes a number of thoughts.
Foremost, it is such a shame seeing those beautiful vineyards being razed. It represents the destruction of many years of growth and maturing that would be difficult and expensive to replace should demand change. It is sad that they cannot find another use for the grapes when demand for wine is low. I have no ideas, but it would seem that preserves would be an option. There has to be others.
Attributing the reason for the decline to the WHO warning to me seems questionable because it does not explain why the sales of other alcoholic beverages (beers and spirits) are not declining. It likely has more to do with value, i.e. what is received for what is given. If one is looking for "alcohol," wine might yield the least return. As an example, take a $25 case of beer, a $25 bottle of whiskey and a $25 bottle of wine. The beer at 5% would give 14 oz. of alcohol. The whiskey at 86 proof (43%) would yield about 12 oz. of alcohol. The wine at 14% would yield about 4 oz. of alcohol. In the economy we have today, it would be the lowest value for "alcohol." Moreover, consider the number of "servings" one gets from the three alternatives, a case of beer, 24; a bottle of whiskey 18+ and a bottle of wine, 5.
I know that I am watching my expenditures more closely than I ever have and I would assume many others are too.
bearpaw8491
Senior Member
Agree with Rocky, there must be other uses.
Certainly brings a tear to the eye of all true wine lovers.
Certainly brings a tear to the eye of all true wine lovers.
I think GenZ and Millennials have lots of other options these days than what we had (Boomers). There are a boatload of "hard" seltzers of different types and craft beers that are very popular. Also the legalization of cannabis is many States gives another plethora of options to get your buzz on in a pretty safe and controlled fashion. I am speaking of the edibles category that has sprung up in huge popularity over the last few years in many States.
The one factor here from the video that makes things seem not quite so bad is that grapes that were being plowed up were in Lodi, CA (113,000 acres of grapes planted) and not Napa or other high rent wine growing districts. When that starts to happen then the sky just may be falling for real.
The one factor here from the video that makes things seem not quite so bad is that grapes that were being plowed up were in Lodi, CA (113,000 acres of grapes planted) and not Napa or other high rent wine growing districts. When that starts to happen then the sky just may be falling for real.
jswordy
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The situation - and especially generationally - is the same across all categories of alcohol, not just wine, and so IMO it is not merely a matter of choice. The craft beer industry, for example, is in retreat. Also, people are not choosing to buy cheaper bottles of wine. They just aren't buying it. We saw the beginnings of this change in European grape and juice surpluses being destroyed as many as five or more years ago. I follow the investor side of the industry, and people were beginning to shy away from making financial commitments starting about that same time (which was lovely for my lil bit of wine stocks, lol).
There has been a decided uptick in the number and stridency of news stories about how any amount of alcohol consumption is bad for health, and more features about people like the ones in this video clip, who eschew alcohol (although pricey fake wine does not appeal to me; what's the point?). I think that more than anything else, that trend is having an effect, as well as the influencers that younger people follow.
The legalization of pot in, IIRC, 28 states has also had an effect on alcohol sales, IMO.
What's most interesting to me, though, is that the laws of supply and demand are not bringing down overall retail wine prices per bottle, even as bulk wine, grapes and juice have declined at wholesale. There's a lot of diverted juice and juice that is never pressed these days, and yes, it seems the industry will have to right-size, yet during this glut retail prices are still up there. As we winemakers know, commercial wine is a high margin, marketing-driven commodity. It would seem there would be plenty of room for prices to drop. But nope.
The most robust wine segment still appears to be the higher-priced bottles, as older consumers who still drink and have the resources continue to purchase those.
There has been a decided uptick in the number and stridency of news stories about how any amount of alcohol consumption is bad for health, and more features about people like the ones in this video clip, who eschew alcohol (although pricey fake wine does not appeal to me; what's the point?). I think that more than anything else, that trend is having an effect, as well as the influencers that younger people follow.
The legalization of pot in, IIRC, 28 states has also had an effect on alcohol sales, IMO.
What's most interesting to me, though, is that the laws of supply and demand are not bringing down overall retail wine prices per bottle, even as bulk wine, grapes and juice have declined at wholesale. There's a lot of diverted juice and juice that is never pressed these days, and yes, it seems the industry will have to right-size, yet during this glut retail prices are still up there. As we winemakers know, commercial wine is a high margin, marketing-driven commodity. It would seem there would be plenty of room for prices to drop. But nope.
The most robust wine segment still appears to be the higher-priced bottles, as older consumers who still drink and have the resources continue to purchase those.
Not in my house they didn't!
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When I grew up, we viewed wine as a beverage that rich people drink. Beer, and now hard cider, were beverages for "ordinary" people. There is a cultural shift in the perception of wine, and alcohol in general. Another factor might be the aging of the Baby Boomer generation and other demographic changes.
It is good that there is more awareness of the danger of abuse of alcohol. But that doesn't mean that we all need to become teetotalers. I once had a German friend, and he and his family had a glass of wine with dinner every night, including the kids. That was part of their culture. But if people only drink wine at parties or special events, consumption is a lot lower.
I would be interested in seeing a comparison in the sales numbers for wine, beer, cider, and hard liquor. It would also be interesting to see how that looks for different countries. I found this study by Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/353858/alcohol-consumption-low-end-recent-readings.aspx
And a study by Pew Research: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...-americans-and-alcohol-as-dry-january-begins/
The percentage of Americans who drink any amount vs. those who abstain entirely has varied within a fairly narrow range since 1939. Those with higher incomes are more likely to consume alcohol, as are college graduates (likely related to income). According to the Pew Research study, sales at wine, beer, and liquor stores has been rising, with a peak in 2020. Sale figures, of course, are affected by the price, so they cannot be used to compare consumption directly.
Since price also affects consumption, after several years of high inflation, the consumption levels for alcohol are likely to be down.
It is good that there is more awareness of the danger of abuse of alcohol. But that doesn't mean that we all need to become teetotalers. I once had a German friend, and he and his family had a glass of wine with dinner every night, including the kids. That was part of their culture. But if people only drink wine at parties or special events, consumption is a lot lower.
I would be interested in seeing a comparison in the sales numbers for wine, beer, cider, and hard liquor. It would also be interesting to see how that looks for different countries. I found this study by Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/353858/alcohol-consumption-low-end-recent-readings.aspx
And a study by Pew Research: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...-americans-and-alcohol-as-dry-january-begins/
The percentage of Americans who drink any amount vs. those who abstain entirely has varied within a fairly narrow range since 1939. Those with higher incomes are more likely to consume alcohol, as are college graduates (likely related to income). According to the Pew Research study, sales at wine, beer, and liquor stores has been rising, with a peak in 2020. Sale figures, of course, are affected by the price, so they cannot be used to compare consumption directly.
Since price also affects consumption, after several years of high inflation, the consumption levels for alcohol are likely to be down.
There was a time in the 80's that spilling an alcoholic drink would bring forth a crescendo of "alcohol abuse" which of course the punishment was a fresh round.
Of course, we are much more sensible now
Of course, we are much more sensible now
I have to say that what happened in the 80's, stays in the 80's!
Mainly because I can't remember most of the 80's
Mainly because I can't remember most of the 80's
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Difficult video to watch…..
jswordy
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I have to say that what happened in the 80's, stays in the 80's!
Mainly because I can't remember most of the 80's
That may be true, but I sure as hell wish the late 1970s and the first half of the '80s could be replayed. Think of all the angst that is so commonplace today that we had no idea would evolve back then. And we were not instantly in touch with each other, and there was no social media. Both huge benefits.
What I wouldn't give for a return to those less angst ridden times. I mean, you could pick up someone you never knew before and have unprotected sex! The worst that could happen was a couple of shots or a lotion to kill the crabs.
Now? Could be a death sentence! Plus we had Ricardo Tubbs and Sonny Crockett. My friend, who was trying HARD to quit smoking at the time, had to swear off "Miami Vice.""Just the way Sonny makes love to a cigarette before he lights it makes me want one so bad!"
BernardSmith
Senior Member
But I wonder how accurate the idea is that supply outstripped demand. Californian wildfires must have spoiled the salability of countless thousands of pounds of grapes, and if they were in fact fermented and bottled for sale, I wonder if buyers were refusing to return to buy more.
Wouldn't that count as a case of demand dropping?
BernardSmith
Senior Member
Absolutely, but there is a world of difference when demand drops from when supply rockets. I am suggesting not that supply increased but that demand for tainted wine fell. The basic assumption in that video was that demand - all other things being equal - dropped. Want , may not have changed but no one was going to pay for poor quality supply. So, all other things were not equal. I wonder if demand for Finger Lakes wine fell, or demand for Australian, French, Spanish, Italian, or Chilean wines also dropped? Was it just Californian wines?
WA State is 2nd in US wine/grape production (only to CA) and they started to see the decline in demand several years ago. The sh!t hit the fan so to speak when SWME cut their contracts for grapes by 40% over 3 years.
https://wineeconomist.com/2023/08/22/wawine/
https://wineeconomist.com/2023/08/22/wawine/
Ouch!
On the plus side, it has made it easier for me to get grapes from commercial vineyards. Last year, the lady who owns a super nice vineyard in Amador just told us pick as much as we want for a fixed price. We picked until the truck sagged.
On the plus side, it has made it easier for me to get grapes from commercial vineyards. Last year, the lady who owns a super nice vineyard in Amador just told us pick as much as we want for a fixed price. We picked until the truck sagged.
Boatboy24
No longer a newbie, but still clueless.
Wish I could still get Amador grapes.
Sounds like you can and they are basically giving them away! Just need to rent a truck and drive cross country next fall!
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Can you stop in Missouri? I'll take 300 lbs of cab sauv, 300 lbs zinfandel, and probably 250 lbs of Merlot.Sounds like you can and they are basically giving them away! Just need to rent a truck and drive cross country next fall!
