# Corona Virus & Day to Day



## Kraffty

Hey Everyone:
Maybe it's time for a spot dedicated to the day to day life under the new rules because of the virus for a while. It seems to be seeping into just about every thread so why not give it a place to "self-quarnitine" for a while.

I'm guessing we'll be dealing with this for a while and the stories of the effects will probably range from minor inconveniences to major life changes and I'm sure from humorous to incredibly sad.

Might be a good chance to share experiences with a group of people we know and trust (not totally sure about ibglowin yet), but anyway, we're following the guidelines as much as reasonable but do need to head out to the store today or tomorrow. If we don't make it back because the Zombies got us then carry on and be safe all.

Seriously, do take care,
Mike


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## Boatboy24

My workday has broadened to 14+ hours, but with multiple breaks and distractions. I feel super-productive and worthless at the same time.


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## ibglowin

Kraffty said:


> Might be a good chance to share experiences with a group of people we know and trust (not totally sure about ibglowin yet).......


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## cmason1957

Boatboy24 said:


> My workday has broadened to 14+ hours, but with multiple breaks and distractions. I feel super-productive and worthless at the same time.


I hear this often when people first start working at home. Pick a start time and stop time, stuck to them like they are work hours. Unless the house is on fire and you need to do something about it, the kids don't bother you. Focus, focus, focus.

I've been working at home for about 20 years. You have to do that or you work all the time.


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## Monty Knapp

I use a Kmeta solution in a spray bottle to sanitize equipment. (3 tbps/gallon) Think it kills the virus?


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## Kraffty

I was walking through my wife's home office, she was on a FaceTime type conference with one of her customers I happen to know. He launched into a coughing fit just then and immediately apologized telling her "don't worry it's just a cold". Before thinking (I'm a smart ass at heart) I shouted "It's ok, she's got virus protection on the system". I could hear him laughing as I walked out.
Mike


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## Kraffty

Monty Knapp said:


> I use a Kmeta solution in a spray bottle to sanitize equipment. (3 tbps/gallon) Think it kills the virus?


I suppose if you could track down some of those little Shreck looking virus orbs and drown them with it it might work.
Mike


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## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> I was walking through my wife's home office, she was on a FaceTime type conference with one of her customers I happen to know. He launched into a coughing fit just then and immediately apologized telling her "don't worry it's just a cold". Before thinking (I'm a smart ass at heart) I shouted "It's ok, she's got virus protection on the system". I could hear him laughing as I walked out.
> Mike



Now that is funny, right there!


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## Rice_Guy

K meta does lung damage in concentration! and it is bad on metal surfaces. 
Based on being an acidic reducing agent is should, , , BUT ! it is toxic, , it isn’t approved for that use. 


Monty Knapp said:


> I use a Kmeta solution in a spray bottle to sanitize equipment. (3 tbps/gallon) Think it kills the virus?


The news says that this virus is easy to kill, therefore the old rule from micro lab should apply. Simply washing with soap water removes 5 or 6 log cycles of viral contaminant.
Public radio had a program on which suggested let contamination dry or even apply heat as a first step to decontaminate.


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## Ajmassa

Rice_Guy said:


> K meta does lung damage in concentration! .



It will damage your nasal passage before it damages the lungs. At least that’s what happened to me. After a long night of prepping bottles I endured a bloody nose and my nasal passage on one side was extremely sore and tender for a few days. 

That was an isolated incident tho. Took more fumes in one night then I would ever normally take working


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## olusteebus

What about Starsan. I researched but cannot find anything.


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## cmason1957

olusteebus said:


> What about Starsan. I researched but cannot find anything.



Someone posted this on another winemaking site, I make no claim that it is accurate, but it has enough big words and sound impressive enough:


> If you are looking in the winery for disinfectants, then I think Star-San is the go-to product for fighting Covid-19. Star-San has surfactant molecules (dodecylbenzenesulfonic acid) that will tear apart membranes in bacteria and yeast. This is how it works to kill these organisms in the food and wine industry.
> 
> These same membrane molecules make up the "viral coating" that is protecting the infective RNA in Covid-19. This is why soap is more effective than bleach at getting rid of Covid-19, because soap is a surfactant molecule (dodecylsulfate, or lauryl sulfate) that disrupts membranes.
> 
> Once the viral membrane coating is removed from Covid-19, the RNA inside is actually rather fragile and gets broken down in water and by RNase enzymes that are pretty much everywhere.
> 
> You won't find Star-San listed on the EPA website of disinfectants, but that means that you will find it in local Homebrew stores and places that need your business right now. A similar molecule to dodecylbenzenesulfonic acid is on the EPA website . It is octanoic acid and recommendation is to use a 2 min contact time.


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## winemanden

Lots of advice being given in UK. A professor of Biology in UK says that because the virus has an oily membrane washing your hands in soap or even dish washing liquid is more effective than anti-bacterial gel or liquid.
Meanwhile, as we are in self imposed isolation it's given me the incentive to catch up on wine making tasks. Just started a brew with what I had at hand, Apple juice, Orange juice, some grape concentrate and of course sugar. No recipe just playing it by ear so to speak, but we'll see how it turns out.
Regards and stay safe to all.


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## JustJoe

I racked one batch of wine and bottled another. With all of the Kmeta and starsan around I assume I am sanitized for a while.


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## ZebraB

I went to the local grocery store at 7:30 am across the sound from Seattle. All the self check lanes are blocked off, but the checkered lanes were open and packed with long lines. Additionally, the open reach area, like bakery, olive bar, bulk foods were closed. So I conclude that the health department is more concerned about transmittion via contacted infected surfaces vs distance from cough. So wash your hands, wash your hands, and wash your hands. 

Yes. There was lots of TP but it was going quickly because it seemed like it was in everybody's cart. I was loading up on fresh produce to freeze & eat as well as getting plants for a garden. 

Stay safe


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## Kraffty

We also had to venture out to the market (Fry Foods). Since our last trip they've closed the full service butcher counter. Chicken, ground beef and most cuts of meat were available, many items now limited to 2 per household which makes sense. We pretty much shopped our normal amounts on everything. Paper goods are still bare and the bread, pasta, beans, rice, all frozen veggies and many of the canned goods were pretty much picked over. Question: when do the hoarders shop? every cart we saw looked to have normal amounts, check out lines were normal to short and most people seemed to be in good moods and behaved. We were out in the middle of the day.

I expected all the people that needed 6 cases of TP to be done buying by now and start seeing supplies showing up on the shelves again.


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## joeswine

" and this to we shall overcome "


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## 1d10t

cmason1957 said:


> Someone posted this on another winemaking site, I make no claim that it is accurate, but it has enough big words and sound impressive enough:


I just read an article that said the same thing about the way soap works. I have a 5 gallon bucket of Star-San and a spray bottle always on hand anyhow so I started using it. I figured it was better than nothing. I could use some smaller spray bottles for the rare times I'm out though.


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## buzi

cmason1957 said:


> Someone posted this on another winemaking site, I make no claim that it is accurate, but it has enough big words and sound impressive enough:



Thank you for sharing.

I noticed the link in their post was for SARS. That said SARS is a virus and, the most effective sanitizer I.e. lease amount of contact time... is still bleach and peroxide. 

Stay safe out there, everyone. Wash your hands, clean and sanitize your homes. And get ready for the next batch!

https://www.americanchemistry.com › ...PDF
Novel Coronavirus - American Chemistry Council


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## joeswine

Today I went on a service call for one of my customers, A funeral home in South Jersey .
Last night they received their first virus customer ,they were not prepare for this eventually but were told to let the body sit for 72 hrs.before prep.( Cold storage).
Times they be achaingen,we installed 8 uv Ray air cleaners , that's at least helpful ,will go back and disenfect the evaporator coils. 
I was also told by my sister in law who's a RN to wash my clothes upon returning to home.im not sure any of this Will help.


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## Ajmassa

joeswine said:


> Today I went on a service call for one of my customers, A funeral home in South Jersey .
> Last night they received their first virus customer ,they were not prepare for this eventually but were told to let the body sit for 72 hrs.before prep.( Cold storage).
> Times they be achaingen,we installed 8 uv Ray air cleaners , that's at least helpful ,will go back and disenfect the evaporator coils.
> I was also told by my sister in law who's a RN to wash my clothes upon returning to home.im not sure any of this Will help.



Nice Joe. It’s here in Burlington county so better safe than sorry. I forgot to take off my boots at the door after getting home from work. 

I almost started WWIII!

*Edit 
Here’s a list for NJ with county breakdown updated 30min ago. After the showdown news conference. 

https://www.fox29.com/news/new-jersey-covid-19-cases-swell-to-1327-including-16-deaths

Also— I’m a bit annoyed that NY and NJ are allowing construction work but PA is not. Working on getting proper credentials to continue working if PA allows exceptions. 

I can’t just stay home. I can’t sit still. Higher probability wife kills me than the Rona. Home Depot is open. And I’m gonna run out of money renovating everything eventually!


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## ibglowin

*Perhaps a timely reminder that WMT is and has always been a "politics free" forum. During this crisis lets especially make sure we leave politics out of all of our replies and discussion. *

Thanks.


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## porkchopmessiah

So, I work in restaurants repairing equipment so my job is pretty much done for now...my boss is letting me run some training classes for the rest of the staff but I now have an abundance of free time, which allowed me to make alot of progress on my latest project....
Here's the link to the video, to large to upload


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## BernardSmith

Not a biologist or a doctor but CDC & NIH seem to suggest that the best sanitizer is soap and water but if you don't have immediate access to soap and water then alcohol-based sanitizers are OK but they need to be at least 60% abv (120 proof).


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## Mumazilla

I don't post much, and I stay home a lot anyways, doing many things, but the weather has been cold/rainy to do much outdoors. I came across a store selling bananas $13 for 40 pounds. Yep, with just 2 bottles left of really good banana wine, I'm starting another batch - despite my rule "I'm not starting any more until all these are bottled". I won't have to wait long for the bananas to be perfectly ready, as you would guess for the price. Has anyone tried bananas with honey instead of sugar? I have a gallon crystalizing I could use...


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## Kraffty

Sounds like a good combo. Kind of a banana mead.
I had just begun a couple design projects for some California companies but no word back on preliminary proof on either last week so I’m assuming the shut down has put them on hold. My wife was also in the beginning stages of buying the components to assemble a large mailer we do annually for Maxon Liftgates and they’ve put that on hold. She sells them the majority of there marketing and ad specialties products that they give away at trade shows. It’s going to get very quiet very quickly for us. 
Mike


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## ZebraB

There was a post on our local Facebook page (so don't know how reliable but...) They recommend sanitizing everything that comes in the house from a store or mailbox or amazon. The news stated that it stays on cardboard for 24 hours. Who knows how long on the grocery store conveyor belts or how diligent the person is about sanitizing that is putting stock on the shelves or the person in the grocery store touching the fresh fruits & veggies. This seemed extreme but it is crazy days....


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## Kraffty

Just got an email saying NASCAR will be holding an i-race today. I can’t believe I just set it to record.


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## ZebraB

Many Americans seem to be following the recommendations of public health officials to clean and sterilize countertops, doorknobs, faucets and other frequently touched surfaces in their homes.

The problem? Many are then tossing the disinfectant wipes, paper towels and other paper products they used into the toilet.

The result has been a coast-to-coast surge in backed-up sewer lines and overflowing toilets, according to plumbers and public officials, who have pleaded with Americans to spare the nation’s pipes from further strain.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...ng-with-the-coronavirus-are-clogging-toilets/


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## Boatboy24

ZebraB said:


> Many Americans seem to be following the recommendations of public health officials to clean and sterilize countertops, doorknobs, faucets and other frequently touched surfaces in their homes.
> 
> The problem? Many are then tossing the disinfectant wipes, paper towels and other paper products they used into the toilet.
> 
> The result has been a coast-to-coast surge in backed-up sewer lines and overflowing toilets, according to plumbers and public officials, who have pleaded with Americans to spare the nation’s pipes from further strain.
> 
> https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...ng-with-the-coronavirus-are-clogging-toilets/



PSA: "Flushable" does not literally mean "Flushable".


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## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> Just got an email saying NASCAR will be holding an i-race today. I can’t believe I just set it to record. View attachment 59420
> View attachment 59419



The Caps are showing simulated games on TV using EA Sports NHL Hockey. Will be based on the actual schedule. IIRC Tuesday is against the Maple Leafs.


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## skyfire322

Boatboy24 said:


> The Caps are showing simulated games on TV using EA Sports NHL Hockey. Will be based on the actual schedule. IIRC Tuesday is against the Maple Leafs.



This German kid who builds Lego replicas of soccer stadiums live tweeted a match he played using Legos. It's actually pretty cute.


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## Kraffty

I wouldn’t have considered that. We’re on septic so we wouldn’t anyway but that’s a very good “share” thanks
Mike


ZebraB said:


> Many Americans seem to be following the recommendations of public health officials to clean and sterilize countertops, doorknobs, faucets and other frequently touched surfaces in their homes.
> 
> The problem? Many are then tossing the disinfectant wipes, paper towels and other paper products they used into the toilet.
> 
> The result has been a coast-to-coast surge in backed-up sewer lines and overflowing toilets, according to plumbers and public officials, who have pleaded with Americans to spare the nation’s pipes from further strain.
> 
> https://www.seattletimes.com/nation...ng-with-the-coronavirus-are-clogging-toilets/


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## olusteebus

cmason1957 said:


> Someone posted this on another winemaking site, I make no claim that it is accurate, but it has enough big words and sound impressive enough:




Oh hell yeah! "dodecylbenzenesulfonic" - that did it for me!. I am gonna use it.


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## joeswine

On a septic,make sure it's biodegradable,Scott tissues are that for sure.


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## Rice_Guy

everything I know from micro/fungal control in food systems says that we slow the natural death rate by refrigeration! I would not trust 72 hours.

I would seriously suggest spray down with a chemical agent before cooling. Italy has started cremation in this event.


joeswine said:


> Today I went on a service call for one of my customers, A funeral home in South Jersey .
> Last night they received their first virus customer ,they were not prepare for this eventually but were told to let the body sit for 72 hrs.before prep.( Cold storage).
> Times they be achaingen,we installed 8 uv Ray air cleaners , that's at least helpful ,will go back and disenfect the evaporator coils.
> I was also told by my sister in law who's a RN to wash my clothes upon returning to home.im not sure any of this Will help.


UV is worth looking at, many hard to clean objects get it.
Ozone generator? Again works on hard to clean objects.
Washing in cold removes micro count, hot water is better and soap better yet. We have another layer today by running hot clothes driers, could also argue for exposure to sun on the clothes line.

Stay healthy


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## joeswine

And the BEAT goes on ️


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## GreenEnvy22

My family and I were in South America on vacation for March, but we had to rush home yesterday before our connecting airport closed totally.
So now in 2 week quarantine at home. I was already working remotely while on vacation and will continue now from home. My work has told everyone to work from home where possible anyway.

I'll get some projects done around the house as well. Will have time to do a refining of all my 2019 wines.


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## Rice_Guy

Monday, I am waiting for the shoe to drop. It isn’t bad since the network has not mentioned any cousin names and the state hasn’t locked down yet. Wife and I will walk this am.
My brother clarified the 90 YO in the news was in a Grafton memory care unit. This is a locked facility so someone who thought they were healthy carried it in roughly six days ago, Tuesday. , , , Statistically that carrier should have 100 to 150 close contacts, don’t like the math of this if I assume 24 hour incubation then shedding virus starts.
Mean while the 19 YO nephew is still partying at night and daughter #1 says the hospital is OK but projecting the day they run out of items.

@Ajmassa your link from Saturday to foxTV says about 2000 identified in NJ, from an epidemiological point of view this is the week where things get interesting.


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## ZebraB

A flash of potential good news from the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic: A treatment is showing promise. Doctors in France, South Korea and the U.S. are using an antimalarial drug known as hydroxychloroquine with success. We are physicians treating patients with Covid-19, and the therapy appears to be making a difference. It isn’t a silver bullet, but if deployed quickly and strategically the drug could potentially help bend the pandemic’s “hockey stick” curve.......

On March 9 a team of researchers in China published results showing hydroxychloroquine was effective against the 2019 coronavirus in a test tube. The authors suggested a five-day, 12-pill treatment for Covid-19: two 200-milligram tablets twice a day on the first day followed by one tablet twice a day for four more days. 

A more recent French study used the drug in combination with azithromycin. Most Americans know azithromycin as the brand name Zithromax Z-Pak, prescribed for upper respiratory infections. The Z-Pak alone doesn’t appear to help fight Covid-19, and the findings of combination treatment are preliminary.

But researchers in France treated a small number of patients with both hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pak, and 100% of them were cured by day six of treatment. Compare that with 57.1% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone, and 12.5% of patients who received neither.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-...virus-patients-11584899438?mod=trending_now_3

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150618?mod=article_inline

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69?

https://www.mediterranee-infection....as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/mod=article_inline


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## BernardSmith

This does look like a port in this storm, given the need to do extensive tests on any new drug before it can be used to treat anyone who may not be at death's door (and even then there are legitimate reasons not to prescribe such drugs). Hydroxychloroquine has a longish history as a drug to treat malaria, so it is simply being used off-label.


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## Boatboy24

Governor just closed all Va schools at least until the end of this academic year.


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## jswordy

Working hard from home, cranking out those news releases. Among them...









OK, we’re dealing with COVID-19, but what’s a virus in the first place?


Everybody knows by now that the United States and the world are in the grip of one of the dangerous coronaviruses called COVID-19, but what’s a virus and how can it make us feel ill? Why do our bodies react the way they do? Are viruses alive?




www.uah.edu













UAH joins supercomputing effort to find drugs effective against COVID-19


A professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at UAH is part of an effort led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Tennessee that applies the power of supercomputers to screen compounds for effectiveness against the pandemic COVID-19 virus.




www.uah.edu


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## Kraffty

Thanks, Jim, mostly way above my head but keep up the good work!
Mike


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## Rice_Guy

looking
at the projected curve for the virus
it is very well known to me
we have watched it many times
from outside, , the glass carboy

looking
at the growth curve for yeast innoculum
5 grams, , exponential, , plateau, , toss the lees
it feels so strange waiting, , in the carboy
looking, , out the glass window


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## sour_grapes

Rice_Guy said:


> looking
> at the projected curve for the virus
> it is very well known to me
> we have watched it many times
> from outside, , the glass carboy
> 
> looking
> at the growth curve for yeast innoculum
> none, , exponential, , plateau, , senescence
> it feels so strange waiting, , in the carboy
> looking, , out the glass window



That is beautiful, horrible, incisive, moving, and poignant, all at the same time.


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## opus345

porkchopmessiah said:


> So, I work in restaurants repairing equipment so my job is pretty much done for now...my boss is letting me run some training classes for the rest of the staff but I now have an abundance of free time, which allowed me to make alot of progress on my latest project....
> Here's the link to the video, to large to upload




Dear god. This is a work of art! you should be on Shark Tank with it.


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## hounddawg

Ajmassa said:


> Nice Joe. It’s here in Burlington county so better safe than sorry. I forgot to take off my boots at the door after getting home from work.
> 
> I almost started WWIII!
> 
> *Edit
> Here’s a list for NJ with county breakdown updated 30min ago. After the showdown news conference.
> 
> New Jersey COVID-19 cases swell to 1,914, including 21 deaths
> 
> Also— I’m a bit annoyed that NY and NJ are allowing construction work but PA is not. Working on getting proper credentials to continue working if PA allows exceptions.
> 
> I can’t just stay home. I can’t sit still. Higher probability wife kills me than the Rona. Home Depot is open. And I’m gonna run out of money renovating everything eventually!



i live very rural but yesterday it was confirmed within 6 miles of me, since only few tested in arkansas they only know about 218 here so far, stay safe all,
Dawg


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## hounddawg

QUESTION, on this virus thing, they were saying 3 or 4 days on cardboard, then today i heard that the virus lasted 17 days on cruise ship cabins,,, i got my wine press in finally, some say bleach water will kill it, others say no, i hit every single definition of it being deadly for me, i know some of yawl are heavy on the grey matter, i really don't want to wait a long time, but will if need be to be safe, i do know i ordered back before things got real bad, but it took awhile for them to ship, and it was in a box inside another box, so i'm fairly sure it was in the inside factory box pre virus,maybe? so any safe way to make sure it is safe, a mistake for me could be very easily be all she rolled... from reading post over the years i know there are several that understand membranes rupturing ,AKA. destroying a virus, so on so forth, so i am asking for knowledge based thoughts, i also am stating whether or not i take any advice i knowingly do so solely of my own accord... so i am responsible for my decisions regardless of any and all advice,,, 
so anything goes wrong i am solely responsible for what i decide Period,, ??????????????????????//
Dawg


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## sour_grapes

hounddawg said:


> QUESTION, on this virus thing, they were saying 3 or 4 days on cardboard, then today i heard that the virus lasted 17 days on cruise ship cabins,,,



You are not to be blamed for this error. This was VASTLY mispresented.

The study found _traces of RNA _17 days later. Not the virus. Not something that could hurt you. Not something you could get the disease from.

A bit of a strained analogy, but it is (a bit) like saying that you came across the skeleton of a mass murderer, and you could still tell the identity of the mass murderer from his skeleton 17 years later! (gasp!)

A random bit of good reporting: Coronavirus RNA detected on cruise ship 17 days after passengers left: CDC report



> pieces of viral RNA can remain on surfaces for extended periods of time, but “this does not reflect infectious virus.”





> “As we know, the longest a coronavirus can last on a surface is nine days in a laboratory — you can’t get it to last longer than that,” he said. “So this identification does not have any impact on transmission on the risk for humans, it just simply means that at one time or another, the virus happened to be on their ship.”


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## hounddawg

sour_grapes said:


> You are not to be blamed for this error. This was VASTLY mispresented.
> 
> The study found _traces of RNA _17 days later. Not the virus. Not something that could hurt you. Not something you could get the disease from.
> 
> A bit of a strained analogy, but it is (a bit) like saying that you came across the skeleton of a mass murderer, and you could still tell the identity of the mass murderer from his skeleton 17 years later! (gasp!)
> 
> A random bit of good reporting: Coronavirus RNA detected on cruise ship 17 days after passengers left: CDC report


thank you for this information, this is very helpful , on the news i get told different contradictions every they speak,,,, since i hit all of the criteria , so all my mail is left out side for a week, then opened with exam gloves, 
again thank you for this information,
Dawg


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## Rice_Guy

hounddawg said:


> ,,,, since i hit all of the criteria , so all my mail is left out side for a week, then opened with exam gloves,


one of the messages on the web is that drying the virus kills it, it lasts less time on paper because it drys out


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## Cellar Vader

Rice_Guy said:


> Ozone generator? Again works on hard to clean objects.


I was hoping to find any info I could on this. I have an Ozone Generator, but wonder how to actually get the Ozone "inside" my bottles. Probably not a viable disinfecting routine, so I'll just stick with my Kmeta rinses. 
THOUGH, as slippery as StarSan is, it sounds like an even better option if our concern is to also rid any Covid-19 contamination.


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## ibglowin

I have a new normal for mail and delivered packages. All mail gets opened up outside. Junk mail goes right into the recycle bin. Anything that needs opening which is not much these days as all bills are paid online but if something requires an actual look inside and then if it by chance anything needs to be saved only the important part gets brought inside and then set off in a box in another room away from the kitchen/dining room area for a few days. Any packages get opened outside and all boxes and materials get tossed immediately into the recycle bins. Only the actual item gets brought inside and again set aside for a few days. Never brought into the kitchen or dining area. I use a clorox wipe on things like my hands and any openers before coming back inside. Once inside I wash hands per the recommendation with a foamy hand soap. Its not TP we are going through. It's paper towels! Seems like I wash them once an hour. My hands are now getting dry and cracked from being stripped of all oils each day all day. We have plenty of lotion on hand since we live in the desert. Like tons of the stuff as Mrs IB is always using it most every day long before the pandemic.

Stay safe people!


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## hounddawg

Rice_Guy said:


> one of the messages on the web is that drying the virus kills it, it lasts less time on paper because it drys out


thank you Rice_Guy, i try to be extra cautious because i'm a prime candidate for the worse end of it, bef a virus, sides, i got a bottle or two i'd sure like to know how they have matured, i hear cold seems to be a good killer of a virus as well, but as with ever thing else the more knowledge the better, and i value your input very much,
Dawg


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## hounddawg

ibglowin said:


> I have a new normal for mail and delivered packages. All mail gets opened up outside. Junk mail goes right into the recycle bin. Anything that needs opening which is not much these days as all bills are paid online but if something requires an actual look inside and then if it by chance anything needs to be saved only the important part gets brought inside and then set off in a box in another room away from the kitchen/dining room area for a few days. Any packages get opened outside and all boxes and materials get tossed immediately into the recycle bins. Only the actual item gets brought inside and again set aside for a few days. Never brought into the kitchen or dining area. I use a clorox wipe on things like my hands and any openers before coming b, ack inside. Once inside I wash hands per the recommendatiomask, n with a foamy hand soap. Its not TP we are going through. It's paper towels! Seems like I wash them once an hour. My hands are boot how getting dry and cracked from being stripped of all oils each day ight on the spooky side of things day. We have plenty of lotion on hand since we live in the desert. Like tons of the stuff as Mrs IB is always using it most every day long before the pandemic.
> 
> Stay safe people!



corn huskers lotion is one of the bet things to keep your hands from drying and cracking, it seems to me that cracked skin could become an entrance point, i get corn huskers lotion at walmarts, if going there i go at odd hours and wearing examine gloves and faces mask, but it is coming about 5 weeks since i self quarantine myself , i live rural north east arkansas, up in the instep of the missouri boot hill, yesterday they handed out official travel papers is the necessary workers, in a very rural area that is just a mighty spooky thing it seems to me, 
Dawg


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## ibglowin

This virus can only enter through your nose or mouth. It has to make it's way into your lungs in order to cause any damage.



hounddawg said:


> it seems to me that cracked skin could become an entrance point,


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## Rice_Guy

When work has required lots of exposure to soaps/ sanitizers the best solution to cracks in the hands has been liquid bandage. 


ibglowin said:


> . . I use a clorox wipe on things like my hands and any openers before coming back inside. Once inside I wash hands per the recommendation with a foamy hand soap. . . . My hands are now getting dry and cracked from being stripped of all oils each day all day. We have plenty of lotion


Wine is a sanitizer all by itself
I can see bagging/ treating with ozone, a bottle the neighbor brought over if I had to drink it today, but 3days time should work as well. I am not adding extra inside the bottle treatments, just the normal maintain SO2 and rinse bottles with meta. , , , , free SO2 is an extremely harsh chemical


Cellar Vader said:


> I have an Ozone Generator, but wonder how to actually get the Ozone "inside" my bottles. Probably not a viable disinfecting routine, so I'll just stick with my Kmeta rinses.


----------



## hounddawg

ibglowin said:


> This virus can only enter through your nose or mouth. It has to make it's way into your lungs in order to cause any damage.


yep, your more then likely right, but they have changed their points of view so many times, that i have lost faith in everything they have to say,,, one day they say they have their first mammal to mammal,,, human to dog, then they say the dog died, ,, then a couple days later they say no dog has gotten it, nore has any dog died of that, i understand it is new and a moving target,, i just wish they'd be a little bit more credible ,then doctors hint at months some sat weeks or months, or even years,,, not to mention there has already on a very small scale, been a few punks trying to rob elders for their foods or money,, crazy, ole world
Dawg


----------



## hounddawg

ibglowin said:


> This virus can only enter through your nose or mouth. It has to make it's way into your lungs in order to cause any damage.


didn't they say something about you eye's too, 
Dawg


----------



## Kraffty

This is kind of interesting, WeatherUnderground has added a map showing confirmed cases of the Virus by counties. I fully understand that the confirmed numbers do not represent an accurate count of actual cases but I do have a feeling they can give a sense of how areas compare to each other so far. We're pretty quiet so far and everyone we've talked with seems to be stay home as much as possible.


Mike


----------



## hounddawg

heck if i know i just hope and pray all goes well,,,,
DAWG


----------



## BernardSmith

hounddawg said:


> yep, your more then likely right, but they have changed their points of view so many times, that i have lost faith in everything they have to say,,, one day they say they have their first mammal to mammal,,, human to dog, then they say the dog died, ,, then a couple days later they say no dog has gotten it, nore has any dog died of that, i understand it is new and a moving target,, i just wish they'd be a little bit more credible ,then doctors hint at months some sat weeks or months, or even years,,, not to mention there has already on a very small scale, been a few punks trying to rob elders for their foods or money,, crazy, ole world
> Dawg



But who "they" - people routinely self publish nonsense on the internet. The only reliable sources of information at this time are CDC, WHO, and depending on where you live your state's health office. No other source is authoritative. No other source. None. No exceptions. And the CDC , WHO and state's boards of health are learning more about this novel (new) virus hour by hour. Political sources are precisely that and individual family doctors know a fraction more about this virus than you do. But the science is with CDC, WHO and your own state's health authority and what they state is reliable and the best knowledge we have at this moment.


----------



## Rice_Guy

* this is thing fits in the family called corona virus. We can see it with the electron microscope pictures that pop up on TV, , and have an idea what to expect. This is not the first corona virus people have studied.
* normally an organism which causes disease in other species will not infect people. example we have little risk from kissing the dog or vice versa. Normally there is significant genetic evolution for an infection to jump species, when an organism does jump species it usually goes along with a large number of individuals in close contact, , example a flock of chickens and the farmer live close to each other. 
yes we have examples as toxoplasmosis in cats will infect people
* we humans are creating the situation where populations of a small number of species are in contact with people. 17 species provide about 78% of the food that we humans eat. The risk of this happening will increase. We humans are creating cities which pull resources from across the globe, , the risk will increase as our population increases
* I too am frustrated with the number of stories on the internet, I wish there was a mechanism where anyone who posted false stories could be held criminally liable, , false info is hurting the US. As a start putting limits on the ability to push a button and republish seems wise. , , , if one had to retype it they would have to think first. , , , Another way could be “think about it for a day” if you still believe the story than you can forward it to your friends. 
* the news papers and major TV networks seem to give better information than the web. The old fashion peer review science papers which give references that relate to their story seem best, , but very slow. 


hounddawg said:


> yep, your more then likely right, but they have changed their points of view so many times, that i have lost faith in everything they have to say,,, one day they say they have their first mammal to mammal,,, human to dog, then they say the dog died, ,, then a couple days later they say no dog has gotten it, nore has any dog died of that, i understand it is new and a moving target,, i just wish they'd be a little bit more credible ,then doctors hint at months some sat weeks or months, or even years,,, not to mention there has already on a very small scale, been a few punks trying to rob elders for their foods or money,, crazy, ole world
> Dawg


----------



## Steve Wargo

hounddawg said:


> QUESTION, on this virus thing, they were saying 3 or 4 days on cardboard, then today i heard that the virus lasted 17 days on cruise ship cabins,,, i got my wine press in finally, some say bleach water will kill it, others say no, i hit every single definition of it being deadly for me, i know some of yawl are heavy on the grey matter, i really don't want to wait a long time, but will if need be to be safe, i do know i ordered back before things got real bad, but it took awhile for them to ship, and it was in a box inside another box, so i'm fairly sure it was in the inside factory box pre virus,maybe? so any safe way to make sure it is safe, a mistake for me could be very easily be all she rolled... from reading post over the years i know there are several that understand membranes rupturing ,AKA. destroying a virus, so on so forth, so i am asking for knowledge based thoughts, i also am stating whether or not i take any advice i knowingly do so solely of my own accord... so i am responsible for my decisions regardless of any and all advice,,,
> so anything goes wrong i am solely responsible for what i decide Period,, ??????????????????????//
> Dawg


I assume everything is contaminated and needs to be disinfected. If I receive a shipment I use work treated gloves to bring it to a disinfected area that I use as my decontamination chamber. I wipe the bottom of box before sitting product down, Then I wipe all sides of box, and start peeling away, continuing disinfecting everything., the caps, everything. I discard what I can immediately into the outside trash. I then let contents sit for at least one day. Next day repeat and wipe everything down again. I then let things sit one more day. I am careful to continuously disinfect hands and gloves in the process, Any gloves, jackets, coveralls, used to come in contact with contaminants remain outside. Keeping the decontamination chamber virus and germ-free is key.


----------



## mainshipfred

We may not be making much money but sure are having fun on the forum. Especially for being out of season.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> We may not be making much money but sure are having fun on the forum. Especially for being out of season.



A lot of projects on hold, Fred? I imagine permitting has gotten more challenging at the least.


----------



## hounddawg

Rice_Guy said:


> * this is thing fits in the family called corona virus. We can see it with the electron microscope pictures that pop up on TV, , and have an idea what to expect. This is not the first corona virus people have studied.
> * normally an organism which causes disease in other species will not infect people. example we have little risk from kissing the dog or vice versa. Normally there is significant genetic evolution for an infection to jump species, when an organism does jump species it usually goes along with a large number of individuals in close contact, , example a flock of chickens and the farmer live close to each other.
> yes we have examples as toxoplasmosis in cats will infect people
> * we humans are creating the situation where populations of a small number of species are in contact with people. 17 species provide about 78% of the food that we hum ans eat. The risk of this happening will increase. We humans are creating cities which pull resources from across the globe, , the risk will increase as our population increases
> * I too am frustrated with the number of stories on the internet, I wish there was a mechanism where anyone who posted false stories could be held criminally liable, , false info is hurting the US. As a start putting limits on the ability to push a button and republish seems wise. , , , if one had to retype it they would have to think first. , , , Another way could be “think about it for a day” if you still believe the story than you can forward it to your friends.
> * the news papers and major TV networks seem to give better information than the web. The old fashion peer review science papers which give references that relate to their story seem best, , but very slow.


at first on the news there was far more miss information, as for the original coronavirus had nowhere near as contagess as this covid19, like ebola the natural strain was nowhere as contaguesse as what we have now, not to mention what does the number 19 stand for h the batch being tried now?, and another thing the different news media each have there own spin,all aside, i too disinfect mail , tell people i am not accepting company,


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> A lot of projects on hold, Fred? I imagine permitting has gotten more challenging at the least.



Just minutes ago we finally received our last approval for the winery. Pre-con is scheduled for Monday. I now have 2 months to get the building to the point where they have refrigerated storage for their cases which are being made offsite at this time. The Production Facility has to be totally operational by August, wish me luck.


----------



## mainshipfred

This came from the Facebook Home Winemaking page. I sure hope my grapes are on the water already.

Today the South African wine industry was dealt a shattering blow. With wine deemed a non-essential item during #21daysLockDownSA, hundreds of wineries are left stranded in the middle of harvest, with thousands of tons of grapes still on the vine. As a non-essential item, producers are not permitted to finish picking or perform any cellar work (as in, winemaking) during lockdown.
While Springfield has fortunately finished harvesting and with most of our fermentation finished, we are distraught thinking of our fellow producers whose very livelihood will be left to rot on on the vine.
Further to that, wine (and all alcohol) is not permitted to be sold or transported during lockdown, which means that at this point we are unable to export to countries that are still able to sell alcohol - which was a small comfort for us during this time.
While #VinPro is lobbying for an industry that contributes around R36,1 billion to the GDP annually, we are calling on you, our fellow wine lovers, to do your part for an industry that might not be around when we all get out of this.
Please, support your favourite wineries. Order wine online even though you will only receive it after lockdown. Every time you find yourself wishing you had a glass of wine right now, add a bottle to your cart. Make sure that the wineries you love, are still able to make the wine you love after all of this is over.
More than anything, please do your part to make this lockdown go as smoothly and as quickly as possible. Stay at home. Stay safe.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> This came from the Facebook Home Winemaking page. I sure hope my grapes are on the water already.
> 
> Today the South African wine industry was dealt a shattering blow. With wine deemed a non-essential item during #21daysLockDownSA, hundreds of wineries are left stranded in the middle of harvest, with thousands of tons of grapes still on the vine. As a non-essential item, producers are not permitted to finish picking or perform any cellar work (as in, winemaking) during lockdown.
> While Springfield has fortunately finished harvesting and with most of our fermentation finished, we are distraught thinking of our fellow producers whose very livelihood will be left to rot on on the vine.
> Further to that, wine (and all alcohol) is not permitted to be sold or transported during lockdown, which means that at this point we are unable to export to countries that are still able to sell alcohol - which was a small comfort for us during this time.
> While #VinPro is lobbying for an industry that contributes around R36,1 billion to the GDP annually, we are calling on you, our fellow wine lovers, to do your part for an industry that might not be around when we all get out of this.
> Please, support your favourite wineries. Order wine online even though you will only receive it after lockdown. Every time you find yourself wishing you had a glass of wine right now, add a bottle to your cart. Make sure that the wineries you love, are still able to make the wine you love after all of this is over.
> More than anything, please do your part to make this lockdown go as smoothly and as quickly as possible. Stay at home. Stay safe.



Wow. That is an enormous blow. Frankly, I'm a little shocked they would do this.


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> Wow. That is an enormous blow. Frankly, I'm a little shocked they would do this.



Really seems like an uneducated, rash decision to me. I don't know what other industries there are in S. Africa but I think wine is a huge part of it.


----------



## hounddawg

BernardSmith said:


> But who "they" - people routinely self publish nonsense on the internet. The only reliable sources of information at this time are CDC, WHO, and depending on where you live your state's health office. No other source is authoritative. No other source. None. No exceptions. And the CDC , WHO and state's boards of health are learning more about this novel (new) virus hour by hour. Political sources are precisely that and individual family doctors know a fraction more about this virus than you do. But the science is with CDC, WHO and your own state's health authority and what they state is reliable and the best knowledge we have at this moment.


the CDC & WHO are the they that have changed as this virus is a moving target, but just the same, i'm locked down . and staying away from everybody, mail is my only variable, one the very first day that new virus was named-brought to attention, i went put back a 5 to 6 month supplies, so living very rural i put back long term feed for my chickens, got winter hay, so i now leave this thread, prepare for the worst, hope and pray for the best, i am bailing out of this thread, getting to contenchence , will just try to sanitize best i can, , not let visitors around, LATER ALL, BE SAFE,,,,


----------



## sour_grapes

hounddawg said:


> not to mention what does the number 19 stand for h the batch being tried now?,


It is the (last two digits of) the year it the virus emerged, namely, 2019.


----------



## Rice_Guy

In this state, today Thursday, testing has a two week back log. The FDA approved test is a research grade method which can de done by two state labs (600/day) and a few contract (pay) labs. . . . . If Arizona has transportation from the rest of the country it is en route. One guess is that the virus survives longer with humidity, , ie up north where we have springtime showers, , , and it will slow later in the year. We are too early in this to have scientific data , , guesses based on earlier viruses.

Singapore has been scanning folks as they walk as the first level screening/ isolating cases and their numbers seem to be developing slower. We need faster numbers!


Kraffty said:


> This is kind of interesting, WeatherUnderground has added a map showing confirmed cases of the Virus by counties. I fully understand that the confirmed numbers do not represent an accurate count of actual cases but I do have a feeling they can give a sense of how areas compare to each other so far. We're pretty quiet so far and everyone we've talked with seems to be stay home as much as possible.


----------



## DrJeff

hounddawg said:


> didn't they say something about you eye's too,
> Dawg



Yes, this is why you see health care workers with protective eye gear. Your tear ducts connect to your nasal cavity. So, touching your eyes, or somehow having the virus coming in to contact with the eye membrane, can allow the virus to travel into your nasal passages, and it's off to the races.


----------



## ZebraB

According to the WHO, the US is now #1 in reported new cases.


----------



## 1d10t

Rice_Guy said:


> Normally there is significant genetic evolution for an infection to jump species, when an organism does jump species it usually goes along with a large number of individuals in close contact, , example a flock of chickens and the farmer live close to each other.


In the past I've read that part of the problem in China is the agricultural methods. People have their pigs, chicken, and other live stock, upstream of their rice paddies. When it rains the 'crap' is washed down into the paddies as fertilizer. Swine flu? Avian flu? Their is a difference in using this stuff raw and composting in a pile where the temperature rises enough to start killing off some of the pathogens. True or not I don't know. Just something I've read and it stuck with me.


----------



## ibglowin

This just in. K-12 has moved to online learning as much as possible for the rest of the school year. Not sure what is happening in the rural areas and the 4 corners region with limited access to the internet and tablets etc.


----------



## hounddawg

DrJeff said:


> Yes, this is why you see health care workers with protective eye gear. Your tear ducts connect to your nasal cavity. So, touching your eyes, or somehow having the virus coming in to contact with the eye membrane, can allow the virus to travel into your nasal passages, and it's off to the races.


the cdc have guidelines for your footwear being remover before entering your house, they have admitted to still stabbing in the dark, this is very different the the regular coronus , although they took it down almost immediately, there was mention of traces of gene splicing, every one is free to do as the see fit, but i got as much faith in the WHO an CDC as i do for other greedy factions ,,, may god bless us all...


----------



## hounddawg

ibglowin said:


> This just in. K-12 has moved to online learning as much as possible for the rest of the school year. Not sure what is happening in the rural areas and the 4 corners region with limited access to the internet and tablets etc.
> 
> View attachment 59568


i live extremely ruaul and our school is closed down as well.


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## BernardSmith

Perhaps this will be what we need to push local, state and federal authorities to create the services we need when disasters (man made or natural) strike us. How many school districts across the US are still in the 19th Century when it comes to technology? My wife is a HS teacher in Manhattan and every kid has a laptop and for years have been required to send in homework through the web. When the authorities closed the school buildings the school itself was not closed - the teachers worked like dogs over three or four days to transform their in-class lessons to online (not a simple task - I teach online for the State University of NY, so I some idea of what good online learning and teaching looks like), so while most schools have closed and many schools have changed their mode of teaching to the equivalent of "home schooling" theirs is open and the kids are learning and working - from home as are the teachers.


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## Ajmassa

Covid-19 birthday cake?

NAILED IT!  Lol

Well I tried my best at least. Keep in mind the limiting conditions having to scrape off the stores design and decorate the cake on my tailgate in the parking lot since I couldn’t do it at home!


----------



## Ajmassa

Just noticed those ‘reactions to post’ options on top of the standard “like”. I only use WMT app but it has been down for a few days. Using the mobile site now and seeing it. Is this a new feature?


----------



## sour_grapes

Yup! Now you can increase your "reaction score" by posting something horrendous that everyone gives a  to, and no one will ever know!


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## Rice_Guy

curious what you think on line should look like? I have heard more complaints from the wife in the last week (HS English) and they don’t get out of spring break till Monday. They are aiming low expectations on what kids can do and pass fail This quarter.


BernardSmith said:


> My wife is a HS teacher in Manhattan and every kid has a laptop and for years have been required to send in homework through the web. When the authorities closed the school buildings the school itself was not closed - the teachers worked like dogs over three or four days to transform their in-class. . .


----------



## ibglowin

I think the app is now dead according to @TxBrew



Ajmassa said:


> Just noticed those ‘reactions to post’ options on top of the standard “like”. I only use WMT app but it has been down for a few days. Using the mobile site now and seeing it. Is this a new feature?


----------



## BernardSmith

Rice_Guy said:


> curious what you think on line should look like? I have heard more complaints from the wife in the last week (HS English) and they don’t get out of spring break till Monday. They are aiming low expectations on what kids can do and pass fail This quarter.



From a college perspective, you want a flipped classroom when the course is online. You don't teach by lecturing. Rather you get students to read your lecture notes and source material before they come to the class and the class consists of either asynchronous or synchronous discussions. You, as facilitator, raise a question from the material that touches on the course outcome (what is it that you want students to know or be able to do) and you have every student raise a question from the material that they ask their class-mates. No one sits at the back of the class - there is no back of the class. You demonstrate your understanding of the material by answering questions posed and by raising questions for others to answer. 
As the facilitator you poke and prod and help both the questioner and the rest of the class delve more deeply into the material to respond to the questions and you can cancel an irrelevant question (one that you can look up the answer)... You can assign a task to groups and learning management systems (Blackboard and Moodle, for example, and even Zoom) enable you to create "groups" within a class... and so you can then assign or ask for each member of the group to accept a task that is not dependent on anyone else doing their work (You do the graphic for the data, you do the annotated bibliography, you write up the conclusion, You summarize the key findings etc).
My wife refuses to recognize anyone as "present" in her high school classes if they do not have their cameras "on" so she can see them an she knows that they are ostensibly "attending" to what is being discussed . The school my wife teaches at does not want the kids in the school to be in online classes for more than a couple of hours a day: they have reading to do and homework to submit, but that is on their "own" time. And teachers are expected to have read & commented on all the homework before classes begin each morning so they are not spending time online dealing with homework...


----------



## ceeaton

We've had the technology in our district for awhile, but the faculty was caught off guard by the timing of the school closures (I personally thought they'd close up shop earlier). Tomorrow is their first day attempt at everyone using their i-Pads to "attend" school. I'll be curious what it looks like. I'm just hoping it isn't a bunch of videos since I'm working from home as well and we have "fast" DSL. So far it has been fine, but the kids had reverted to summer hours not getting up till 9 or 10 in the morning. By then I've usually accomplished what I need to do for the day since I normally log in around 4:45 am. I've been asking them if they have a start time or not, haven't got any answers (they don't look up long enough from their various electronics to answer me). Fortunately (or unfortunately pay wise) my wife has the day off tomorrow since she works in the ER and there are supposed to be no elective surgeries. I'm hoping she can deal with the kid's issues while I get some work done.


----------



## Kraffty

Craig, do you and/or your wife have extra concerns or take extra precautions because of her profession? Also please tell her thanks for the work she's continuing to do.
Mike


----------



## ceeaton

Kraffty said:


> Craig, do you and/or your wife have extra concerns or take extra precautions because of her profession? Also please tell her thanks for the work she's continuing to do.
> Mike


Yes and no. If she gets it, I sleep about six inches away from her and there isn't a really comfortable option for other places to sleep (I don't do the floor). Our only precaution at this point is to wash anything that we are out in public with when we get back home, and the rest of the family doesn't "associate" with anyone outside of the household. I've been working at home for over a week. Early in the morning, I walk around the house with a solution in a bucket and wipe everything that we normally touch, leave it wet for at least 6 minutes, then take a shower. 

My older brother is a Cardiologist and just had one of his office physician assistants test positive, so most of his office staff (26 I think he said) are in two week quarantine. My other brother works for the House of Reps (IT director) and has been working from home for two weeks. We don't even visit each other (talk on the phone only) and we live a mile away from each other (it's actually pretty tough for me, you probably can't tell but I'm a very social person). 

So we'll see what happens if she gets it. She has been sewing a bunch of masks for people, she finally made some for us (mine using Philadelphia Eagles fabric) that we can wear in case someone in the house gets sick, but they won't offer that much protection. I had ordered her an N95 mask from England three weeks ago, but it ships from China and they aren't shipping anything at the moment, oh bother (Eeoor reference). 

I spend as much time outside or in the basement away from the others, drinking beverages to keep my throat wet every 15 minutes or so, or maybe more. My older doctor brother told me tonight that the rule is 3 minutes or less within 6 feet of someone, if they aren't noticeably sick. Don't know if I buy that one or not.


----------



## hounddawg

hum, i worked for many years as a mall rat,, (sup building stores in shopping malls)
the only thing i dreamed of all those years seeing car wrecks, siriens , the buzz of people, was to take my watch off, no calendars, just the peace and quiet of the countryside, i have every underlying condition, 59. i went got some of what i needed, as well igot dexter cattle, chickens, at the first rumble in mid feb i locked down, i hate what this is doing to people and our nation, i pray for all,,,
Dawg


----------



## Rice_Guy

* the time rule comes from Singapore. Time is a numbers game! ! with so much risk per minute and you just keep the clock adding. Distance is a numbers game, more would be better, however for Singapore it works as an initial low tech precaution.
* the technology for monitoring temperature is available and should be done as another low tech/ low cost option. I don’t understand why our government pHd aren’t copying/ weren’t copying Asia at the start of the month.
* I don’t understand why we aren’t being encouraged to have masks on also. The med facility rule is keep one on all day so doctors don’t get sick from patients they are treating and also staff don’t bring something into the hospital from outside.
* It gives a false sense of security to see normal working distances and no precautions/ healthy looking folks/ any one of which could be carrying covid.



ceeaton said:


> If she gets it, I sleep about six inches away from her and there isn't a really comfortable option for other places . . . My older doctor brother told me tonight that the rule is 3 minutes or less within 6 feet of someone, if they aren't noticeably sick. Don't know if I buy that one or not.



*We appreciate doctors who risk themselves, , thank your brother & wife*


----------



## crushday

President said four more weeks of this. Ok... I’m glad Iive where I love.

Decided that we need to a barrel tasting tonight. Everything is coming along nicely.

I opened a bottle of 2016 Smitherings Red Blend wine, it’s nice...


----------



## hounddawg

Rice_Guy said:


> * the time rule comes from Singapore. Time is a numbers game, with so much risk per minute and you keep the clock running. Distance is a numbers game, more would be bette, however for them it works as an initial low tech precaution.
> * I don’t understand why we aren’t being encouraged to have masks on too. The med facility rule is keep one on all day so doctors don’t get sick from patients they are treating and also staff don’t bring something into the hospital from outside.
> * It gives a false sense of security to see normal working distances and no precautions/ healthy looking folks/ any one of which could be carrying covid.
> 
> 
> *We appreciate doctors who risk themselves, , thank your brother & wife*



first the CDC & WHO does not have a handle on this virus, they keep changing what they think, as a matter of fact, sadly look how many brave medical people have come down sick with this virus, as for N95 mask at first we were way short and for the first time i can remember i have never heard that the CDC & WHO ask the construction trade to send in their masks, an according to the CDC they are not solidly sure that a N 95 is anywhere close to foolproof, most of the double talk and vague explanations are to keep the people from panic, the only true silver lining is we are keeping our death rate down, around 1%,,, i am hoping for a cure, a enveloped lipid virus, really needs the protective envelope broken in order to hasten the death of the virus. I hope you and yourn are safe and healthy,,,
Dawg


----------



## hounddawg

crushday said:


> President said four more weeks of this. Ok... I’m glad Iive where I love.



yes i am so happy that i live away from people, and very rural , yet with all my underlying medical issues , I am still staying locked down, I hope you and yourn are safe,,,
Dawg


----------



## crushday

We are safe and enjoying the wine we‘ve made...


----------



## hounddawg

crushday said:


> We are safe and enjoying the wine we‘ve made...


I as well...
Dawg


----------



## sour_grapes

crushday said:


> I’m glad *Iive* where I *love*.



I am sure your wife is relieved to read that, too!


----------



## crushday

At the end of the day, it’s one of things I’m glad we have in common. We have a walking trail near our house. Generally people are non responsive and unfriendly-we simply lack deeper commonality. It’s weird to me that people easily ignore you even if you say “hi”.... @hounddawg - I’m glad we have this in common.


----------



## hounddawg

crushday said:


> At the end of the day, it’s one of things I’m glad we have in common. We have a walking trail near our house. Generally people are non responsive and unfriendly-we simply lack deeper commonality. It’s weird to me that people easily ignore you even if you say “hi”.... @hounddawg - I’m glad we have this in common.



me too, and what you said about people ignoring you when you say hi, that's sad, But with trail nearby that to me sounds like heaven to me,,, anything that you and your's enjoy is all that truly matters, a stroll through nature is so calming, so therapeutic, it souths one's soul, an yes it is a honor to me to run across another vinter that has that connection with nature
Dawg


----------



## sour_grapes

“Explaining a joke is like dissecting a frog. You understand it better but the frog dies in the process.” ― E.B. White

At the risk of killing the frog, I just wanted to make sure @crushday understood me:



crushday said:


> Ok... I’m glad I *Iive* where I *love*.





sour_grapes said:


> I am sure your wife is relieved to read that, too!





crushday said:


> At the end of the day, it’s one of things I’m glad we have in common. We have a walking trail near our house.



You wrote that you are glad you _live_ where you _love, _whereas I suspect you meant to say that you _love_ where you _live._ The former has a different meaning than the latter!


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## hounddawg

sour_grapes said:


> “Explaining a joke is like dissecting a frog. You understand it better but the frog dies in the process.” ― E.B. White
> 
> At the risk of killing the frog, I just wanted to make sure @crushday understood me:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You wrote that you are glad you _live_ where you _love, _whereas I suspect you meant to say that you _love_ where you _live._ The former has a different meaning than the latter!


no offence but are you even understandable,,, lol
Dawg


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## GreginND

For those who are interested, I have been charting the data from Worldometer for some time when people started to compare Italy with the US. I also have been looking at Spain while it was a hotspot. It appears, based on the number of new daily cases, that we are on the cusp of it starting to slow down here in the US. For the first time yesterday, the number of new cases reported was less than the day before. IF that trend continues (a few more days of data will make me more confident), then we could see the rise in infections slow down over the next couple of weeks. Once we hit a peak of infections and start to see more recoveries, it will still be maybe 3-4 weeks before things start to be safer to open up. My prediction is we are probably looking at early May before we can even start to think about getting back to operating as a country again.


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## hounddawg

GreginND said:


> For those who are interested, I have been charting the data from Worldometer for some time when people started to compare Italy with the US. I also have been looking at Spain while it was a hotspot. It appears, based on the number of new daily cases, that we are on the cusp of it starting to slow down here in the US. For the first time yesterday, the number of new cases reported was less than the day before. IF that trend continues (a few more days of data will make me more confident), then we could see the rise in infections slow down over the next couple of weeks. Once we hit a peak of infections and start to see more recoveries, it will still be maybe 3-4 weeks before things start to be safer to open up. My prediction is we are probably looking at early May before we can even start to think about getting back to operating as a country again.View attachment 59655
> View attachment 59656
> View attachment 59657
> View attachment 59658
> View attachment 59659
> that


i just seen on the news, (((they are not super reliable to say the least))) that in china, it is being reported that a reinfection rate of 3 to 10%,,, and yes i am very interested in your research, dad;s 86, mom 76, i am 59 triple bypass, tracheostomy, diabetes type 2, an more, brother was exposed to chemical agents in baghdad 02 $ 03, we locked down in mid-february , thank you for your research, 
Dawg


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## ZebraB

There is devil in the details. CA and TN still have case count growth and several cities are warning potential new hot spots. (Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit and possibly LA). However, China's example of a six-week lockdown is a reason for optimism for some areas of the country. Outside of Wuhan opened up in Feb, but Wuhan is now just opening up. 

US has been testing over 100K people per day. The current test takes 5-days to get back results, but a 15 minute test was just approved by the FDA. Abbot Labs says it can deliver 50K rapid result tests per day beginning next week. So I anticipate that the case count will go higher just because we will be testing more people and more rapidly. 

Below is a link that are government's list of disinfectants and timelines. Star San is not listed, nor does the company claim any antiviral effectiveness. 









About List N: Disinfectants for Coronavirus (COVID-19) | US EPA


EPA expects all products on List N to kill the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) when used according to the label directions.




www.epa.gov





Some of these timelines are longer than practical. So we have set up a "hot zone" for incoming packages. 3 days before opening and then decontaminate the insides if practical or wait another 3 days before bringing in the house. Stay safe


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## hounddawg

ZebraB said:


> There is devil in the details. CA and TN still have case count growth and several cities are warning potential new hot spots. (Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit and possibly LA). However, China's example of a six-week lockdown is a reason for optimism for some areas of the country. Outside of Wuhan opened up in Feb, but Wuhan is now just opening up.
> 
> US has been testing over 100K people per day. The current test takes 5-days to get back results, but a 15 minute test was just approved by the FDA. Abbot Labs says it can deliver 50K rapid result tests per day beginning next week. So I anticipate that the case count will go higher just because we will be testing more people and more rapidly.
> 
> Below is a link that are government's list of disinfectants and timelingloves each and every time, es. Star San is not listed, nor does the company claim any antiviral effectiveness.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> About List N: Disinfectants for Coronavirus (COVID-19) | US EPA
> 
> 
> EPA expects all products on List N to kill the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) when used according to the label directions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.epa.gov
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Some of these timelines are longer than practical. So we have set up a "hot zone" for incoming packages. 3 days before opening and then decontaminate the insides if practical or wait another 3 days before bringing in the house. Stay safe



yes i too have places where things go before they enter the house, not to mention they are after a few days are opened out side, the the contents get the same put away in a different area before it is messed with, using exame ,gloves each and every time, i even set up a dry place for USPS, USP, FEDEX TO DROP OF ANYTHING COMING IN, 
Dawg


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## stickman

I thought this program had some interesting information and data, some of the best I've seen so far at least in my opinion. Of concern is the aerosol that is emitted from people even as they talk, some of the material settles quickly, but some very fine material continues to float around the room for long periods of time. We can't overlook the packages and mail etc. that we bring into the home, but for most of us, going to the store is still probably one of the highest risks we take. The original link and YouTube link are below.









COVID-19: Fighting a Pandemic - NHK Documentary | NHK WORLD-JAPAN On Demand


What can be done to stop this mysterious virus? Researchers are working to contain the spread, and are learning new facts about infection mechanisms. The latest research reveals how tiny droplets carrying the virus can remain in the air for some time. We bring you reports from the frontlines of...




www3.nhk.or.jp


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## mainshipfred

About the only thing we are able to do around here is walk the trails at the parks and play golf. On Saturday I tried to book a tee time for Sunday and there wasn't one to be had. Every golf course within a 50 mile radius was either booked solid or closed and most were simply booked, at least until 5:00. The only restriction VA had for golf courses is they can't open the clubhouse except for the pro shop with the 10 person maximum.


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## hounddawg

stickman said:


> I thought this program had some interesting information and data, some of the best I've seen so far at least in my opinion. Of concern is the aerosol that is emitted from people even as they talk, some of the material settles quickly, but some very fine material continues to float around the room for long periods of time. We can't overlook the packages and mail etc. that we bring into the home, but for most of us, going to the store is still probably one of the highest risks we take. The original link and YouTube link are below.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19: Fighting a Pandemic - NHK Documentary | NHK WORLD-JAPAN On Demand
> 
> 
> What can be done to stop this mysterious virus? Researchers are working to contain the spread, and are learning new facts about infection mechanisms. The latest research reveals how tiny droplets carrying the virus can remain in the air for some time. We bring you reports from the frontlines of...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www3.nhk.or.jp



that is some spooky info,,,,
Dawg


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## BernardSmith

Rice_Guy, I was on a conference call the other day with among other people a doctor who works in a NYC hospital treating Covid-19 patients. He said that masks for the public are not really effective in the ways that people imagine - first because the virus is essentially not airborne so the problem is that you and I bring the virus into our mouths, eyes and noses by touch. In a hospital setting nurses and doctors might be sneezed on, coughed on and have other fluids from patients splashed on and so the more effective N95 masks are necessary (if you intubate a patient, for example, your face is inches from their mouth. However, where a mask IS effective is that it prevents the WEARER from touching two out of the three access points for the virus (mouth and nose). BUT if your mask is contaminated today and you wear it again tomorrow without sterilizing it you may be at greater risk than not wearing one because if you touch it and contaminate your fingers and then rub your eye or stick your finger in your mouth or nose then you have introduced the virus into your body in precisely the way it needs to reproduce and disturb your immune response which is , it seems, what is making you "ill" with this virus. 

The other thing the doctor was saying was that social distance is not REALLY about protecting you and I from becoming infected. Sure it works to help that BUT the real issue is NOT personal health. It's public health and this is the model he used: He said that the risk to you and me if we go outside and mingle might be 1 in 1000. That risk is not tiny but it's not terrifyingly high either. Now in a community of 1 million people with the risk being 1 in 1000 , 1000 people will CERTAINLY become infected. And at this time if 1000 people are infected 500 will require ICU or ER care. Five hundred beds and the number of nurses that requires and doctors to take care ONLY of people suffering from Covid-19 will very quickly overwhelm hospital resources - but if you have 8 million people or 300 million people then you can see the problem.. So again, the real issues are not about personal health (your or my health in this epidemic) but about how the society can take care of (or not) the tens of thousands of folk who are almost certain to need critical care (and if someone needs a ventilator because they cannot breath by themselves, that person needs to be sedated and so needs constant supervision... and that's where the problems are... so for most of us IF IF you have to go out and IF you have to touch something another person has touched you MUST wash your hands with soap and water AND best to try to stay indoors and /or away from everyone while anyone might be shedding virus even while asymptomatic. And as the CDC says IF we can all cooperate to turn the curve of cases from rising to falling then doctors and nurses and hospitals and first responders will have the resources to deal with those who become infected (albeit that a percentage of those with other underlying medical conditions may not recover but if the hospitals do not have the resources they need to treat the cases that they receive then a far greater percentage of those infected are likely to die - so this is a public health problem more than a personal health problem.


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## opus345

Remember the models and forecasts are only as good as the assumptions and the forecasts may change as new data is received.

"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months."









IHME | COVID-19 Projections


Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




covid19.healthdata.org


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## opus345

Like this guys perspective on data modeling.

"Brian Goebel: Making Sense of COVID-19 Data, Graphs and Models."









Brian Goebel: Making Sense of COVID-19 Data, Graphs and Models


Noozhawk.com delivers local breaking news, local sports, schools, nonprofits, obituaries, business, arts and entertainment, calendar, local opinions and more.




www.noozhawk.com


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## hounddawg

this is a exponential health threat ,,, NYC & Jersey are just larger scale patterns of urban patterns that then flow down to eventually to very rural areas, so, a very big issue living further from more dense areas, are in the path, just at a slower rate, which means hygiene and social responsibility and personal distance is essential, to try to break this chain of events, containment is impossible, so social behaviour and adherence to protocol is key to try to slow these cycles, to give civilianization a chance, to come up with the means to counteract this threat to modern civilisation this is in no way a area problem,,, It is a every square inch of this planet, every style of life, ever creed, ever belief, ever race'S problem with the only factor of time and of hygiene. in which it will affect us all. Not anything in my personal opinion is in no way meant to be political, but a common sense problem, rich, poor, inbetween, this is a humankind moment, we either all come together or we descend back to primal, uneducational despair, this is a moment in time for all civilizational differences to come together as one,,, All agenda;s to be set aside for the benefit of modern society, at this point mask and gloves are played down in order to protect our only chance, the first line is the medical and scientific community , whom are immersing themselves into this virus in order to try to understanding,,, This so they can figure out cures and vaccines for this lipid enveloped virus,,, Like with hygiene and hand washing, multiple clothes washing is a must, So as is a staging area for incoming safe place transitioning for packages, mail, shoes clothes, to help make a barrier from the outer world to your inner world (((home)))be safe everyone, god bless, good luck, and best wishes from my heart to yawl one and all,,,
just my 2 cents
Dawg


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## Rice_Guy

@BernardSmith well thought out hazard analysis.
Yes! ! ,, The cellulose ones I use working in insulation either leak below or fog up the glasses. A mask is a social message to the 4 school age kids walking down the sidewalk ,,, to the four adults walking 4 dogs last night ,,, I don’t like the social message that this is not real, , as listening to Rush yesterday where he po pos experts who do COVID infection modeling.
@stickman excellent Japanese documentary! , , , I wonder who is getting sold what when I compare Fox vs CNN vs good morning america. , , I miss the fairness doctrine when I could trust all TV and not ask who is selling me.


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## 1d10t

BernardSmith said:


> He said that masks for the public are not really effective in the ways that people imagine - first because the virus is essentially not airborne


This is being called into question by current research from the University of Nebraska.


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## BernardSmith

1d10t said:


> This is being called into question by current research from the University of Nebraska.


 1d10t, Hmmm , I'd love to see exactly what this paper is in fact suggesting (rather than a reporter's report) but my albeit very limited understanding is that while those who are infected are shedding the virus and that their coughing and sneezing project the virus in microscopic and larger globules of liquid the fact that the virus is suspended in the air for any length of time is not in and of itself a problem. The problem is only when the virus has access to your lungs through your mouth , nose and tear ducts (eyes). It is POSSIBLE (I'd say PROBABLE) that in hospital settings you do NEED full protective gear but if you are outside in the open or in a room with no one who is shedding viruses is constantly shedding 24/7 in a fixed and closed locale (as in an ICU or ER or other hospital ward) then the actual danger or risk of infection is small if not tiny. I 
would think that the rate of cases (despite the lack of routine testing) would be much greater if aerosol infections were a likely cause. But if their data suggests that the risk itself is large I would love to see their methods and findings.


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## 1d10t

Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center


Lack of evidence on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics has led to shifting isolation guidelines between airborne and droplet isolation precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals confirmed positive with COVID-19 infection, air and surface samples were collected in eleven isolation...




www.medrxiv.org


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## hounddawg

1d10t said:


> Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center
> 
> 
> Lack of evidence on SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics has led to shifting isolation guidelines between airborne and droplet isolation precautions. During the initial isolation of 13 individuals confirmed positive with COVID-19 infection, air and surface samples were collected in eleven isolation...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.medrxiv.org


so far even the CDC & WHO recommendations has been a shifting target, this variante of the virus is a completely new ball game, yesterdays yes's can become tomorrow's no's,,,
Dawg


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## 1d10t

A skeptical person might think that the CDC has been flat out lying to keep the general public from competing for the N95 masks. Chinese officials have been on record as saying the masks are necessary.


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## hounddawg

1d10t said:


> A skeptical person might think that the CDC has been flat out lying to keep the general public from competing for the N95 masks. Chinese officials have been on record as saying the masks are necessary.


my family and i stocked up a little and locked down mid february, the CDC said that surgical grade masks were useless, yet all medical personnel were wearing and still wearing surgical grade mask. 2 days ago i ordered 100 more mask, my health is , very ruff and i have a tracheostomy,,, so tube sticking out my neck straight to my lungs, so i ordered 100 masks, day B4 yesterday, today i got a email that, that vendo was arrested and his masks confiscated, the email was from the government/ebay joint email, stating that due to my disabilities and ruff health that i would get and keep my mask, and 100 pair of medical gloves, that proves right there in my book that the CDC is lying to people, the more money you have and the more power you have will get you moved ahead of the curve, i have neither but my items were shipped just hours before the raid, so they let it go. i have used the words
9(((they))) an/or (((them))), some called me on that, so i made it clear a huge part of my info was from the CDC & WHO,,, their rules are constantly changing as they learn more,,,, this is not the time for snide comments,, no this is the time for all americans to unite as one in order to survive this global spread has no borders, no colors, no creeds, yes i am going on 7 weeks of lock down, and for the ones of yawl are used to socializing,, i know this is driving you nuts, but remember when anyone of us make bad decisions, then the bad decisions for our loved ones, can be permanent,,,
Dawg


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## joeswine

When it comes to these things does anyone know the real truth about this problem or are we truly a day to day ,as what found out yesterday.?
All's we can do is day by day , listen and learn and hoping this will come to an end soon .


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## Rice_Guy

We are too new in this to have “scientific method truth”. That will come down the road. In the mean time we are making analogies from what was known with other health events whether in chicken flocks or SARS outbreak.
The analogies/ guesses change as we gather info, ,,, the boss used to hate that I would run a week of testing and modify/ improve the guess. AND,, I have been surprised how many times I have beat my head on the wall looking for an answer and found what I was looking for by stepping back/ starting the next project. Looking in hind sight we will see what is real, ,,, in the mean time we go by track record, ,, if someone gives consistent info they are more believable, ,, if an article/ researcher *explains * how *new info *changed the prior model I will trust it more. Research is like the rule of three, ,,, get three estimates on a roof or kitchen model or real estate agent and toss out the weird one.


joeswine said:


> When it comes to these things does anyone know the real truth about this problem or are we truly a day to day ,as what found out yesterday.


The thing that I fear most in this is *people hiding information *since it will make them look bad. I will trust folks like Johnson and Johnson because after Tylenol contamination they said we had a problem/ mistake and they publicly correct it. *everyone makes mistakes ! *


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## BernardSmith

1d10t said:


> A skeptical person might think that the CDC has been flat out lying to keep the general public from competing for the N95 masks. Chinese officials have been on record as saying the masks are necessary.


N95 masks are essential if you work in a hospital and your face is inches from people both shedding and spraying viral material. You and I don't need such masks if we keep 6 feet away from everyone not in our immediate household AND we wash every time we touch something upon which someone who was infected could have shed viral material. 
That said, I have to assume that we cannot know how close we are to mitigating (still less containing) the spread of this virus: we are not testing 100 percent of the population and those we test we are not testing in real time. That quite simply means we have no good idea of who is infected and who is shedding and who is asymptomatic but shedding and who is free and clear. When we have a better handle on those data then and only then can we know whether the rate of infection is in fact slowing down because fewer people are becoming infected or if it APPEARS to be slowing down because fewer people who are symptomatic or are asymptomatic are being tested. You can be infected and you can be shedding (and so spreading the virus) even a) days before you have ANY symptoms and b) even if you have NO symptoms... The ONE possible alternative indication is when the death rate drops (but that datum I am not certain enough to bet on)...


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## GreginND

Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US today.

These are new cases PER DAY.


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## sour_grapes

GreginND said:


> Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US today.



I am sorry the news isn't better, but thanks for the update.


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## Rice_Guy

Greg, I wonder how bad it would look if it was normalized to cases per 10,000?


GreginND said:


> Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US. . . These are new cases PER DAY


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## hounddawg

GreginND said:


> Sorry, my previous data was not correct. New cases are growing. This was as of the end of yesterday. We've topped 200,000 cases in the US today.
> 
> These are new cases PER DAY.
> View attachment 59724
> 
> View attachment 59726
> View attachment 59728


yup, even our medical people are still using theories, or as they hate saying guessing, educated or not still a guess on their part


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## hounddawg

1d10t said:


> This is being called into question by current research from the University of Nebraska.


all data is evolving minute by minute, me i see all the scientists wear mask, as do doctors, the mask deal falls back to supply and demand, not enough supply and way to much demand,
Dawg


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## bstnh1

The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).


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## sour_grapes

bstnh1 said:


> The new coronavirus causing COVID-19 has led to more than 454,000 illnesses and more than 20,550 deaths worldwide. For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).



But this comparison is faulty, so I am not sure why you are making it. While the flu is a serious disease, the numbers you cite are integrated over a full season and cover the large fraction of the US population that has been exposed to the flu. The novel coronavirus has not (yet) circulated widely, and the deaths have only happened over a few weeks.

I am pretty confident that, for the flu, they don't set up 85 reefer trucks in one city to serve as morgues, nor do other cities convert ice rinks to morgues.

BTW, I don't know when you pulled your illness/death numbers, but they are already off by a factor of two, that is, there have been more than twice as many COVID-19 illnesses and deaths as you cite. In other words, you are _a few days_ behind the times (which should be an indicator of another reason not to make this comparison).


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## bstnh1

The '57-'58 H2N2 Asian Flu killed 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the U.S. I don't remember any panic about it at the time nor any measures like "stay at home", etc.
The 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 1 million worldwide and 100,000 in the U.S. And again, I do not recall any isolation type measures being taken.
My point is that we have experienced "new" viruses in the past for which there was no vaccine that sickened and killed a lot of people. I don't see this one as much different. The isolation measures will slow the spread of it and ease the immediate impact on health care facilities. But none of these measures will actually stop the spread of the virus.


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## sour_grapes

bstnh1 said:


> The isolation measures will slow the spread of it and ease the immediate impact on health care facilities. But none of these measures will actually stop the spread of the virus.



On this we are in complete agreement. I have no idea why citing seasonal flu numbers (in your first post) would help make this point.


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## 1d10t

We failed to take the measures that could have alleviated death and suffering in the past so we should be prohibited from doing it now? Great logic there.


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## Rice_Guy

To mask or not to mask? ### an interesting comparison of filter efficiency by prof Nasia Safdar (school of medicine) in an alumni news chat:

N95 masks should take 97% of particulates out
vacuum cleaner bags come in at 93% of particulates removed ****brain storm *** ? how could I fabricate a mask from a vacuum cleaner? ? ****
a lot of the paper ones do 50% efficiency and cotton towels are less


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## ibglowin

Lots of DIY videos on using HEPA vacuum cleaner bags to make mask at home with an insert for the HEPA filter. We just got a shipment yesterday from Amazon. Mrs IB is making mask today for wearing when going out in public. Some info (warmings) have popped up today saying these bags have chemical fumes that off gas (people can smell the fumes when they are an inch away from their nose). Not sure if placing the bags in a small toaster oven at low temp (outdoors) would solve the gas/fume problem. We may or may not use the bags at this time but we will be looking into it obviously.


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## Rice_Guy

I have been blessed with looking over the shoulder of the daughter in the medical system. They have been looking at measures for at least three weeks in response to COVID19 trying to adjust the network to work around short supplies, staff shortages, cash flow issues, staff burn out, limiting family access, etc. The health network is always trying to improve their patient interaction quality.


1d10t said:


> . . We failed to take the measures that could have alleviated death and suffering in the past so we should be prohibited from doing it now?


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## BernardSmith

How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks

Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure _*changes*_ in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all


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## GreginND

BernardSmith said:


> How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks
> 
> Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure _*changes*_ in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all



I now you said you are not looking for answers, but let me provide some for others. 

The coronavirus particle size is about 70-90 nanometers. That is 0.07 micrometers (microns). A HEPA filter standards are to filter out 97% of particles down to 0.3 microns. So, they are not very effective at removing virus particles. That being said, the virus is usually suspended in larger droplets that can be filtered.

There are varying reports of how long the SARS-CoV-2 virus is suspended in the air in aerosols or droplets. Most say not that long - 15 minutes? 

Face masks, even simple cloth ones, are better than nothing. They are most effective at preventing an infected person from creating airborne droplets. They help reduce the amount of virus spread from coughs and sneezes. Masks that are not tight fitting won't do a lot to protect the wearer from aerosolized droplets getting around them. But I do think it is still better than having nothing that might catch some droplets and reduce the exposure. I would point out that Asian countries, where widespread mask use when out in public is common, have generally been more effective at slowing the spread.

I've had a lot of people tell me I should be comparing my graphs against populations to get an accurate risk. The point of absolute numbers is not to determine individual risk, but to determine the rate of spread. This is dependent on absolute numbers of infected interacting with others. The problem is there are many variables that affect that - testing frequency and change thereof, regional population densities, etc. etc. 

Comparing COVID-19 death rates to other diseases and causes is usually fraught with errors because we are only at the beginning of this pandemic and other statistics are deaths over a much longer time frame. There is a lag after infection and showing symptoms to death. As our infected numbers rise, deaths will rise probably at an increasing rate over the short term until we catch up with the lag.

There are sobering statistics about mortality with severity. The numbers I am seeing from medical professionals in New York and other hard hit areas indicate that 50-80% of people who enter ICU with COVID-19 die. You don't want to get that sick. The chances are not good.


----------



## bstnh1

Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.


----------



## BernardSmith

Many thanks GreginND, 
The DIGG article was based on (I believe) data from recorded deaths in March and not an account of deaths per year etc which likely nvolves corrections so while the count may be subject to corrections the numbers of deaths are those deaths that were recorded and which are part of the public record for the month (but I am skeptical that that record is as up-to-date as the author of the article suggests: how quickly do different states collect and then make accessible the record of deaths that took place the previous day or week or even month? and how quickly is it possible to determine a cause of death when the deceased has died suddenly (a car accident that is determined to be suicide, a car accident that was caused by a sudden cardiac arrest etc).. That said, I am sure that unless the numbers for any cause of death is significantly different (statistically speaking) in any one month that that might suggest either a recording error or some peculiarity affecting the health of the nation that may need accounting for.


----------



## 1d10t

bstnh1 said:


> Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.


My wife was in and out of ICU in two different hospital systems over a period of 3 months. I didn't see anything near this mortality rate. Where did you get this figure from?


----------



## hounddawg

BernardSmith said:


> How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks
> 
> Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure _*changes*_ in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all


if your going to bring in deaths by guns, then you 'll need to bring in the deaths by bicycles, wasp stings and so on that are multiples higher than gun death, and that argument borders on politics ,, yes/no??????
Dawg


----------



## Johnd

bstnh1 said:


> Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.



Thats just not right. I’m the Board Chair of a large hospital, mortality rates are nowhere near that number. Here’s an article you can read if you like, or Google up some more. ICU Outcomes | Philip R. Lee Institute for Health Policy Studies


----------



## BernardSmith

1d10t said:


> My wife was in and out of ICU in two different hospital systems over a period of 3 months. I didn't see anything near this mortality rate. Where did you get this figure from?



My thinking is similar to yours, 1d10t. I would have put the numbers closer to about 10-18 % but I have seen a paper written by scholars from Turkey, (published in the US) that suggested a 50% mortality rate at ICUs as standard... The paper did not suggest that the data that was being used came from anywhere but Istanbul but I could be mistaken. But that said, there seems to be two kinds of deaths that take place in ICUs - the expected and the unexpected deaths and the "expected" deaths might in fact be quite high given that doctors in the US go way beyond extraordinary lengths to preserve life for even a few hours and those lengths might require ICU facilities.


hounddawg said:


> if your going to bring in deaths by guns, then you 'll need to bring in the deaths by bicycles, wasp stings and so on that are multiples higher than gun death, and that argument borders on politics ,, yes/no??????
> Dawg


I don't know that I was _*discussing*_ deaths by guns. I am a medical sociologist, Dawg, and illness and death interests me but I don't know that you have any idea of my views on firearms and I don't discuss my political views on this forum. Sorry.


----------



## bstnh1

1d10t said:


> My wife was in and out of ICU in two different hospital systems over a period of 3 months. I didn't see anything near this mortality rate. Where did you get this figure from?


Sorry about the bad numbers. When I rechecked that, I discovered the site I was on was in Istanbul! The U.S rate is 8-15%. Big difference.


----------



## hounddawg

BernardSmith said:


> How large is the virus and how large the particles that HEPA filters hold back? How virulent are virus cells when they are suspended in air for any length of time? How many virus cells does it take to infect a person? How many virus cells are you and I likely to encounter at any time as we are walking from point A to point B or as we walk through a supermarket buying food? How many virus cells are hospital workers likely to encounter when attending to people who are infected and who are shedding? How effective are the "barriers" and masks that are not fitted to prevent any flow of air from the sides? How likely are those wearing barriers on their face to infect themselves when they remove the mask in ways that are not indicated or when they rub their face to alleviate discomfort that most face masks produce? - I am not really asking for answers. I simply want to highlight some of the issues that underlie the differing opinions about the usefulness and effectiveness of facial barriers and/or N52 face masks
> 
> Last point: I see today , DIGG claimed that Covid-19 is the third largest cause of death in the USA 1049, after heart disease - 1774 deaths and cancer - 1641 deaths in March 2020. So, while deaths per 100,000 is I think the standard way to measure _*changes*_ in rates of death (suicides, for example) and that would be useful when comparing US deaths from Covid-19 to deaths from Covid-19 in other countries, (or different States) or comparing deaths from one cause compared to the same cause over time (deaths by firearm, for example), knowing whether Covid-19 is the 10th largest cause of death or the 5th or.. the 2nd is perhaps meaningful to everyone involved in public health within the US - and to us all


just when you bring in firearms as a example, then you should not leave out causes of death that is multiples greater than firearms, that's all i'm saying, when people of all stripes use firearms as examples they always tend to leave out things that cause death mupitles greater the firearm example, which tends to be the most politically devise example that is made in political arguments, your pick for a example that is a mediocre example at best, it is not a dig at you, it merally points out a misused example, now if by means of citing a mediocre example of death might befitting beings so far the death rate is not the greatest factor, contagabilty is the greatest factor, 
Dawg


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## Rice_Guy

@GreginND great insight!
An after effect I hadn’t seen on the web, , number 1 son has a boss from China who went through COVID who has continuing breathing issues when he exercises as walking up the stairs.


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## sour_grapes

hounddawg said:


> if your going to bring in deaths by guns, then you 'll need to bring in the deaths by bicycles, wasp stings and so on that are multiples higher than gun death, and that argument borders on politics ,, yes/no??????



Well. that is certainly misleading. 



> During 2000–2017, a total of 1,109 deaths from hornet, wasp, and bee stings occurred, for an annual average of 62 deaths. Deaths ranged from a low of 43 in 2001 to a high of 89 in 2017.
> Source: National Vital Statistics System. Underlying cause of death data, 1999–2017. Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2018 Request.


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## hounddawg

sour_grapes said:


> Well. that is certainly misleading.


the so on, was meant to include bicycles and peanuts, ect, ect, but feel free, i know i do!!!! at the risk of being offence i typed this real slowly for you, now if you wish to childishly wish to ban me feel free, as for this thread this is my very last response on this thread PERIOD, 
D\awg ,,,


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## sour_grapes

It happens that my best friend was one of those 1109 killed by wasp stings. I believe it was YOU who cautioned others against carelessly citing "mediocre" statistics.


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## Stressbaby

Apologies if this was posted earlier, but this is a useful site from UWash: IHME | COVID-19 Projections US and state-by-state forecasts. 
As some of you know, I'm a physician. I trained in the HIV/AIDS era 1983-1991. This is way scarier to me.
We are fortunate to have folks with military backgrounds leading the COVID work in our org.


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## GreginND

bstnh1 said:


> Under "normal" circumstances, before COVID 19, 50% of ICU patients die in ICU.



I'm not sure where you are getting your information, but the consensus seems to be about 9-19%, on average, mortality for normal ICU operations in the US.


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## GreginND

Not to be a downer, but the data keeps getting worse for the US. Our number of daily new infections continues to accelerate with over 32,000 new confirmed cases yesterday. It appears the US is somewhat unique in the world for not being able to at least slow the rate of new infections by this time after first cases. It may be that our country is large and the virus is spreading in waves over the larger population centers. But it is concerning that people are still out and about and not taking precautions. There are many people infected who don't know it and are seemingly healthy. THEY should be wearing masks to prevent spread to others. Masks are most useful for keeping those shedding the virus from spreading it.


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## bstnh1

Total projected deaths are still less than the 1968 Swine Flue that killed 1 million worldwide and 100,000 in the U.S.


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## ibglowin

Is there any adjustment for population? The data has to be normalized in some fashion or it would seem to be apples and oranges.



GreginND said:


> Not to be a downer, but the data keeps getting worse for the US. Our number of daily new infections continues to accelerate with over 32,000 new confirmed cases yesterday.


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> Is there any adjustment for population? The data has to be normalized in some fashion or it would seem to be apples and oranges.



That'll make China look great! (if you believe their numbers).


----------



## ibglowin

I don't believe theirs or Russia.



Boatboy24 said:


> That'll make China look great! (if you believe their numbers).


----------



## GreginND

ibglowin said:


> Is there any adjustment for population? The data has to be normalized in some fashion or it would seem to be apples and oranges.



Well, that is a bit complicated because there are many factors. Population densities vary a lot across the country. Normalizing to percent population doesn't tell much other than maybe some kind of individual risk. The absolute numbers of infections and new infections per day do tell us something about whether the infections are accelerating or slowing down. Total population is not a factor, but the absolute number of connections between people transmitting it is. 

The data is only as good as the testing, of course. But every country does seem to show the same trends over time. The US has not shown any kind of slow down yet, even though many have been distancing. I don't think we are doing enough. Perhaps a better comparison is the number of New Cases per Day for the US compared with all of Europe. I have just done that comparison. The data sources are different, but what is clear is that the trend (shown by the 5 day rolling average lines) for the US is not showing ANY slowdown yet. Europe, however, is definitely showing a change in the rate of infection.


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## Johnd

One reason we‘ve seen no slowing yet is that all states aren’t reacting the same, some have taken full measures weeks before the others. The governors of the states make the call, and some seem oblivious to what’s going on across a political (but not environmental) border. My state was shut down quite some time before our neighbors, for instance, but the virus doesn’t respect these borders, and it was already in the bordering states anyway, just hadn’t manifested through symptoms and testing. Now the neighboring state rates are starting to blossom as their residents go about their normal activities, and then their governors issued stay at home orders. Had they understood earlier, and issued the order earlier, they may have averted higher rates. In all fairness, many people will ignore these orders if they can’t see numbers to explain why it’s been issued. This scenario is playing out across the country, and it will progress until everyone who continues to expose themselves gets sick or starts to heed the orders. Those of us who choose to protect ourselves just have to wait them out.


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## GreginND

Our local sporting goods store was packed with people today. I don't understand.


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## Boatboy24

GreginND said:


> Our local sporting goods store was packed with people today. I don't understand.



How is that an essential business? Oh, I guess people are feeding their families with the lures and ammo they get there.


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## Stressbaby

bstnh1 said:


> Total projected deaths are still less than the 1968 Swine Flue that killed 1 million worldwide and 100,000 in the U.S.



Not exactly. It's widely accepted that ~33,800 persons died from influenza 1968-1969. The 100K total is over 3-4 years.
Projected COVID deaths this year ~93K.


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## GreginND

Boatboy24 said:


> How is that an essential business? Oh, I guess people are feeding their families with the lures and ammo they get there.



Guns and ammunition? Just a guess.


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## sour_grapes

GreginND said:


> Our local sporting goods store was packed with people today. I don't understand.



Wait! How do you know?


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## Boatboy24

Seafood markets at The Wharf in DC yesterday were shut down because there were so many people and nobody was practicing social distancing. 

I feel bad for the employees. Video I saw showed them telling patrons to space out or they'd be shut down. Many of them are showing up to work this morning and just then finding out they don't have a job.


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## GreginND

sour_grapes said:


> Wait! How do you know?



Reports from several folks driving by saw the parking lot packed full.


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## ibglowin

Very interesting research paper coming out of China.









COVID-19: Attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism


The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) is an infectious acute respiratory infection caused by the novel coronavirus. The virus is a positive-strand RNA virus with high homology to bat coronavirus. In this study, conserved domain analysis, homology modeling, and molecular docking were used to...




chemrxiv.org


----------



## Stressbaby

Some good news: the UWash projections are now better than they were a couple of days ago. IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Total deaths down to 81K from 93K. Peak resource usage has shifted down and back by 2-3 weeks. These projections assume continued social distancing through May.


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## Johnd

Stressbaby said:


> Some good news: the UWash projections are now better than they were a couple of days ago. IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> Total deaths down to 81K from 93K. Peak resource usage has shifted down and back by 2-3 weeks. These projections assume continued social distancing through May.



The folks behind the scenes at IHME have re-evaluated and adjusted their modeling, resulting in all of the projections getting less severe, and moving time lines closer, pretty much across the board.


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## Johnd

Stressbaby said:


> Some good news: the UWash projections are now better than they were a couple of days ago. IHME | COVID-19 Projections
> Total deaths down to 81K from 93K. Peak resource usage has shifted down and back by 2-3 weeks. These projections assume continued social distancing through May.



Here in LA, where we were supposed to peak sometime this week, we’re now 6 days past the peak. We should now be seeing the results of shutting down nearly everything 3 weeks ago. Hope all other states follow suit. No complaints.


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## ibglowin

Very interesting article from the LA Times. On a lighter side note make sure to read to the end. 









How a discovery that brought us Viagra could help those battling the coronavirus


Inhaled nitric oxide appeared to kill the coronavirus that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and it might work on COVID-19 as well.




www.latimes.com


----------



## Boatboy24

Johnd said:


> Here in LA, where we were supposed to peak sometime this week, we’re now 6 days past the peak. We should now be seeing the results of shutting down nearly everything 3 weeks ago. Hope all other states follow suit. No complaints.



I've been pretty confused by some of the projections I'm seeing. In my state of Virginia, the governor locked down non-essentials a week ago, yet the predictions were for infections to peak in late May. The math doesn't add up to me. I'm hopeful that our peak is more like some time next week. However, that doesn't mean we all go back to normal. Continued social distancing will be needed to keep this trend going.


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## ZebraB

That study is interesting, especially Favipiravir!. This could be a game changer Japan may have it approved in May. Wonder about US and our astringent FDA guidelines. 









Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China


Shares in Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, which developed favipiravir, surged after praise by Chinese official




www.theguardian.com




.....
Zhang Xinmin, an official at *China’s science *and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving *340 patients.*

“It has a *high degree of safety* and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
......
But a *Japanese health ministry *source suggested the drug was *not as effective in people with more severe symptoms. *“We’ve given Avigan to 70 to 80 people, but it doesn’t seem to work that well when the virus has already multiplied,” the source told the Mainichi Shimbun....Favipiravir would need government approval for full-scale use on Covid-19 patients, since it was originally intended to treat flu......A health official told the Mainichi the drug could be *approved as early as May.* “But if the results of clinical research are delayed, approval could also be delayed.”


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> I've been pretty confused by some of the projections I'm seeing. In my state of Virginia, the governor locked down non-essentials a week ago, yet the predictions were for infections to peak in late May. The math doesn't add up to me. I'm hopeful that our peak is more like some time next week. However, that doesn't mean we all go back to normal. Continued social distancing will be needed to keep this trend going.



Where are you getting the late-May projection? The IHME model referenced above has you peaking on April 20th.


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## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> Where are you getting the late-May projection? The IHME model referenced above has you peaking on April 20th.



It was another projection I saw over the weekend.

Reminds me of the old saying: 'Opinions are like @#[email protected]#(&* - everybody's got one.'


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## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> Reminds me of the old saying: 'Opinions are like @#[email protected]#(&* - everybody's got one.'



Yup! "And they all stink!"


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## joeswine

I don't think anyone has an idea of ,what ,how or when and that kind of rambling is infectious and not productive.
Stores are running low on bascis and don't seem to be filling up at all.
This is the world we live in at present, soon a brighter note the wine cellar is full  and the tastings have been good to excellent  I'm making raviolis ( homemade) and cooking more than ever.
Oh well , I'm just rambling.


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## Johnd

Just a note, the IHME projections have changed in the last day or so. I read an article about why they changed, apparenetly due largely to the model that was created to make the projections. As the data has flowed in, the actual numbers just weren't following the projections created by the model, so it was adjusted. I can only imagine the difficulty in creating a model like that with no precedents, other than what has been seen in other countries, which one do you use? Do you use a blend of their experiences? Do you completely ignore the numbers from China with the same land mass as the US, but 4 times the population? Pretty tough gig for sure. The upside is, hopefully, the refining that has been done to the model is more indicative of how the numbers play out, and this thing us under control sooner rather than later, with a lot less loss of life and economic impacts to us all. Best wishes to you all!!


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## joeswine

Amend


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## GreginND

Just yesterday, our Governor issued an executive order for people who have tested positive to stay home and self quarantine for 14 days. Just yesterday! I know we are a small low density state, but things are spreading here and many who are infected, haven't even been tested. No order for suspected cases to stay home. *sigh


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## Stressbaby

"All models are wrong but some are useful."
-- George Box


----------



## ibglowin

This new report on COVID-19 antibody response shows it's not simple.









Neutralizing antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in a COVID-19 recovered patient cohort and their implications


Background The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus threatens global public health. Currently, neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) versus this virus are expected to correlate with recovery and protection of this disease. However, the characteristics of these antibodies have not been...




www.medrxiv.org





They’ve analyzed 175 patients discharged from hospitals in Shanghai after coronavirus infection. Neutralizing antibodies appear about 10 to 15 days after the onset of disease (which sounds about right) and target three different regions of the “spike” protein on the virus. (Interestingly, these do not cross-react with the earlier SARS coronavirus spike protein). The total amount in the blood (the titer) varied quite a bit between individuals – notably, younger patients had far lower levels than older ones did, which raises the question of how immune they really are. In fact, ten of those young patients had no detectable neutralizing antibodies at all (!) and overall, about 30% of the entire cohort failed to develop a high antibody titer (although they had similar disease progression before their recovery).


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> This new report on COVID-19 antibody response shows it's not simple.



Thanks for that info. Wishing the news were better...


----------



## GreginND

Today we (the US) went back up and had a record number of new cases in a day. Our number of deaths has also just met that of Spain and after tomorrow, our trend will surpass theirs. What looked like the start of a slowdown a couple days ago has accelerated back up again.

That being said, the tests are not 100% accurate. My colleague most assuredly is infected - has all the symptoms, fever, etc. Their partner has been tested positive with those symptoms, but hers was negative. I also know of at least one other with all the symptoms but cannot get a test. That suggests there are still many out there unknowingly spreading this. I wish my governor would take more definitive actions.


----------



## ZebraB

I wonder what the implications are for vaccines, If 30% of the patients do not get a longer term protection from antibodies.


----------



## GreginND

ZebraB said:


> I wonder what the implications are for vaccines, If 30% of the patients do not get a longer term protection from antibodies.



That's a great question! It would imply that the vaccine would, at best, be 70% effective. Although, even that is better than not vaccinating.


----------



## Johnd

GreginND said:


> That's a great question! It would imply that the vaccine would, at best, be 70% effective. Although, even that is better than not vaccinating.


That, and the fact that you have to get vaccinated for the flu every year, so there’s no retained immunity there either..... If you get vaccinated for the wrong strain, no joy their either.


----------



## GreginND

Johnd said:


> That, and the fact that you have to get vaccinated for the flu every year, so there’s no retained immunity there either..... If you get vaccinated for the wrong strain, no joy their either.



The problem isn't retained immunity for the flu vaccine. It is that the flu evolves quickly and our antibodies for the previous year's strains are not recognizing it.


----------



## reeflections

It really doesn't look good.









More coronavirus patients testing positive again after recovery: report


Coronavirus patients in South Korea are now testing positive for the virus a second time, health officials are warning, following similar reports in other countries.Bloomberg reported Thu…




thehill.com


----------



## ibglowin

This was shocking.. I know NM is one of the poorest states in the US but we have seen nothing like this. I grew up in SA and know full well that there is a huge population that are poor but this pandemic has brought many people to the brink in so many ways.

*Six THOUSAND families line up in their cars for hours at a food bank in San Antonio*









Six THOUSAND families line up in their cars for hours at a food bank in San Antonio - Sound Health and Lasting Wealth


The San Antonio Food Bank distributed one million pounds of food to roughly 6,000 families in a single day as millions across the country turn to charity




www.soundhealthandlastingwealth.com


----------



## Boatboy24

Did I see a Porsche in that pic?


(kidding)


----------



## ibglowin

80% of the population of SA is Hispanic (and low income). Has been that way for 300 years. They live paycheck to paycheck with nothing in the bank for any emergency especially one like this. Couple that with the fact that SA is a huge tourist town these days with not only the Alamo and riverwalk but Fiesta Texas (Six Flags) and Sea World and its no wonder you have lines like that. Even Toyota which employs ~2000 people for the Tundra is shut down.


----------



## joeswine

About 8 years ago my wife and I visited SA, and spent a week there . The town itself was empty,we ate at the Cattlemen's and on the Riverwalk, we walked alot and the town was empty.
The Alamo was great to see and the Valencia hotel was outstanding,but the town itself was empty,from there we went to Brownsville then came home.
Lot of emptyness, the people we meet were great we also were there to see the parade of Roses, ladies and horse's done up in their finest. Outstanding event parade.


----------



## OilnH2O

Back to the topic...
Here in Montana we are seeing a downturn, or lessening, of new cases/day since a high on March 26 (35) trending down through the 20's per day and in the last couple days 15 per day. We have had 6 deaths - one the other day after a couple weeks of 'only' 5, three of which came (sadly) from the same rural senior residence. It's easy enough to "self-isolate" in Montana and the states around us on ANY day! And, people for the most part are following the national guidelines and, our statistics seem to reflect it.
I realize there are places elsewhere in the country where things are more acute, but Inslee (gov of Washington) just released several hundred ventilators back to FEMA - unneeded. Also, he released their 250-bed "pop-up" hospital (built in their event center) was just dismantled for use elsewhere. It never had even one patient. Are things starting to look better across the board?
I just finished up yesterday my pruning of my small (27) vineyard and enjoyed temperatures in the high 60's and bright sun. It was enjoyable! Am I being blinded by that sun or just optimistic? The future looked pretty bright!


----------



## sour_grapes

I caution that the following are my relatively uninformed opinions.

I agree there is reason for optimism. I wouldn't say things are "starting to look better across the board," but _almost_ across the board (in the US). The Kinsa map (US Health Weather Map by Kinsa) is looking good with a few exceptions. Looks like the shutdowns and social distancing is working decently.

Before I get too optimistic, I would need to see: 
(1) the current hotspots ALL turn over (WA, MI, NY). I am particularly worried about Florida. IL is worrisome.
(2) No new hotspots emerge. Whether it be the variety of small population centers (like the current cases of Lafayette, LA or Albany, GA) or emerging clusters in large population centers (the Feds are worried about Philly, Baltimore, and DC). In Canada, the virus arrived later, and they aren't expected to peak until late spring.
(3) And I think we face a crapshoot when we ease the lockdown. Hopefully we can ride this out without large flareups by identifying and containing emerging clusters. Remember, that was really the plan all along. Until we get a treatment or a prophylaxis, we should only hope to be able to slow, not eliminate, the spread. ("Flatten the curve.")
(4) Remember, there are large swaths of the world's population that have not yet been hit hard AND are probably going to have trouble handling it. I am thinking of, say, Brazil, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, sub-Saharan Africa... These areas could "keep the flame alive" in a dangerous way.
(5) Reinfection. Once things return to some degree of normality, we could, at any time, face flare-ups of the variety that kicked this party off to begin with.


----------



## Boatboy24

I think we are nearing peak here in the DC Metro. I've been tracking (and graphing) total cases and new daily cases each day for weeks now. This week, we had a couple big days, and also a couple very low days. My company declared "work from home if you can" around the 9th of March and by the end of that week, 80% of us were doing so. We've been over 90% for 3-4 weeks now. Many others did the same about a week later. Virginia and Maryland governors declared the stay at home orders on the 30th of March, IIRC. So we are nearing the two week mark of significant distancing - 4 weeks with moderate distancing. Anxious to see what the next 5-7 days look like, but think it'll still be (or should be) 3-4 weeks AFTER peak that we start to relax some restrictions. Certainly not a full return to 'normal' though.


----------



## joeswine

Only time will tell and even then we can't be sure. Can we.


----------



## ibglowin

The problem is. This is just the first wave. That is all. There will be a secondary, a tertiary........ We go back to anything like it was before and the waves will be worse than the first IMHO. Until there is a vaccine we are sadly going to look like Asia for the last few years (wear mask out in public) or risk the fate of COVID-19.


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## Ted Brumleve

Herd immunity will limit this virus once 60+% of us have been exposed. That is likely to happen before any vaccine can be in widespread use, about 18 months. So unfortunately, we'll have to catch it to be immune.


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## ZebraB

Without enough PPE and ample testing how do we let everyone go back to normal


----------



## 1d10t

Ted Brumleve said:


> Herd immunity will limit this virus once 60+% of us have been exposed. That is likely to happen before any vaccine can be in widespread use, about 18 months. So unfortunately, we'll have to catch it to be immune.


I just read that about 14%(?) tested positive in a German town.


----------



## bstnh1

reeflections said:


> It really doesn't look good.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More coronavirus patients testing positive again after recovery: report
> 
> 
> Coronavirus patients in South Korea are now testing positive for the virus a second time, health officials are warning, following similar reports in other countries.Bloomberg reported Thu…
> 
> 
> 
> 
> thehill.com



But some researchers say reinfection is an unlikely explanation for patients who test positive twice, and note the possibility that testing errors, and releasing patients from hospitals too early, are more likely to be the cause of patients who retest positive. 

“If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,” Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, told The Los Angeles Times in March. “To get reinfected again when you’re in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right.”


----------



## bstnh1

Massachusetts has detected a much higher than expected amount of Covid 19 in municipal sewerage systems leading officials to suspect that many more people have been infected than has been reported. This would mean a lot more people have antibodies against the virus.


----------



## Boatboy24

bstnh1 said:


> But some researchers say reinfection is an unlikely explanation for patients who test positive twice, and note the possibility that testing errors, and releasing patients from hospitals too early, are more likely to be the cause of patients who retest positive.
> 
> “If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,” Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, told The Los Angeles Times in March. “To get reinfected again when you’re in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right.”



Wondering if it's a matter of people getting different 'versions'?


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## bstnh1

Boatboy24 said:


> Wondering if it's a matter of people getting different 'versions'?


According to Dr. Fauci, the virus hasn't mutated so there are no other versions.


----------



## ibglowin

60% of the US population (328 million people) is 197 million folks that would need to be exposed to the virus to provide herd immunity. At a death rate of 3% that means we would have to let almost 6 million people die in the US in order to take this approach. We should probably stick to social distancing for awhile.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Some good news, this state has enough testing so that we have eliminated the two week lag for results. (currently 20 state and contract labs testing) 
I agree with @ibglowin that we need to plan for a seconday wave. Flattening the curve means we are making the uninflected population exposed to risk longer. Politically are we willing to put resources into keeping the human herd healthy? Will we act wise with our resources/ wealth?


----------



## 1d10t

ibglowin said:


> 60% of the US population (328 million people) is 197 million folks that would need to be exposed to the virus to provide herd immunity. At a death rate of 3% that means we would have to let almost 6 million people die in the US in order to take this approach. We should probably stick to social distancing for awhile.


The results I mentioned above in Germany puts the death rate much lower than the 3% figure but still there would be too much death to just let this run its course. Oxford thinks they can have a vaccine in 6 months based on current results and it may go into production early so that it will be available before the end of the trials for rapid deployment. 80% effective figure thrown out but way to early to know.


----------



## ibglowin

When will this end, and what comes next? Health officials and epidemiologists are working to figure out Washington’s coronavirus end game


Keeping the virus under control in the long term will require an ambitious strategy that one Seattle scientist calls “the Apollo program of our times.”




www.seattletimes.com


----------



## bstnh1

We do not have any numbers on the number of people who have had the virus beyond those who saw a doctor and/or we admitted to a hospital. Because so many people have very mild symptoms, it's suspected that a lot more people have actually had the virus making the actual death rate well below 1%.


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## sour_grapes

bstnh1 said:


> We do not have any numbers on the number of people who have had the virus beyond those who saw a doctor and/or we admitted to a hospital. Because so many people have very mild symptoms, it's suspected that a lot more people have actually had the virus making the actual death rate well below 1%.



Ratios have both numerators and denominators. We also don't have good numbers on deaths. Sometimes, people die in their homes, so no cause of death is known. In NYC, about 200 people per day MORE THAN USUAL have been found dead in their homes in recent weeks. (Usually 50/day die at home, recently 250/day.) Total deaths are necessarily sketchy, but likely figures would add 50% (~2500 deaths) to the "official" COVID death toll (~5500).

But, in any event, we don't need to speculate on what a full-scale, widespread infection looks like, regardless of what the "death rate" is. As of yesterday, 0.06% of people in NYC were known to have died of COVID-19. Not the percentage of people who had it, the percentage of people that live there. (And, as mentioned above, this is probably an undercount.) One result is that mass burials of unclaimed bodies in their potter’s field are now taking place 5 days a week. This is just for _unclaimed_ bodies.







I am sure you have your own reasons, known only to you, for seeking, post after post after post after post, to minimize the situation we face. I am attempting to be clear-eyed.


----------



## bstnh1

sour_grapes said:


> Ratios have both numerators and denominators. We also don't have good numbers on deaths. Sometimes, people die in their homes, so no cause of death is known. In NYC, about 200 people per day MORE THAN USUAL have been found dead in their homes in recent weeks. (Usually 50/day die at home, recently 250/day.) Total deaths are necessarily sketchy, but likely figures would add 50% (~2500 deaths) to the "official" COVID death toll (~5500).
> 
> But, in any event, we don't need to speculate on what a full-scale, widespread infection looks like, regardless of what the "death rate" is. As of yesterday, 0.06% of people in NYC were known to have died of COVID-19. Not the percentage of people who had it, the percentage of people that live there. (And, as mentioned above, this is probably an undercount.) One result is that mass burials of unclaimed bodies in their potter’s field are now taking place 5 days a week. This is just for _unclaimed_ bodies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I am sure you have your own reasons, known only to you, for seeking, post after post after post after post, to minimize the situation we face. I am attempting to be clear-eyed.



No, I'm not seeking to minimize the situation. But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion. As of Saturday, there have been 533,378 confirmed Covid19 cases in the U.S. There have been 20,601 documented Covid19 and pneumonia deaths. Because many people exhibit very mild or no symptoms from Covid19, it's assumed the number of cases is much higher than what has been documented. Contrast those numbers with the numbers for the current seasonal flu season which, by all measures, has been milder than most. CDC estimates there have been between 39 and 56 million cases of the seasonal flu so far this season. Because the flu is not a reportable disease, the CDC develops estimates based on what data they have. CDC also estimates that there have been between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to the seasonal flu this season. CDC further estimates that there have been between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations for the flu and between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths from the seasonal flu through April 11th. Yes, Covid19 appears to be much more contagious than the seasonal flu. But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion. There is plenty of hype and fear mongering trying to convince us that Covid19 is going to bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to. But that's all it is - hype and fear mongering.


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## Rice_Guy

Now you tell me, and I have been in a rental snaking out a toilet line.


bstnh1 said:


> Massachusetts has detected a much higher than expected amount of Covid 19 in municipal sewerage systems leading officials to suspect that many more people have been infected than has been reported. This would mean a lot more people have antibodies against the virus.


It is fair to say a lot of this is fear mongering. From the start we knew we have a strong technical base and could minimize death rate.
.
The BBC comment that this is primarily a political problem rings true.
.
listening to “Hidden Brain” (NPR podcast) this week pointed out that some cultures dislike rules/ ie doing things for the common good,, Instead of “my” free choice. Therefore Italy and Spain have a significantly higher death rate than China Or Singapore.


----------



## mainshipfred

With my lack of medical knowledge and quite frankly lack of interest in learning about COVID 19 I should really stay out of this. This is not an attempt to down play the severity and I'm doing my part to protect myself, my family and my employees. However mathematically I can't get the numbers to add up. If using 330,000,000 people in the US and rounding up the total confirmed and presumptive cases to 500,000 and the total deaths rounded up to 20,000 as of yesterday's CDC count the death rate in the US is .0061% and only .15% have been confirmed or presumptive. The death rate of confirmed case is 4% so if the number of deaths is based on 4% of course you will see death rates in the millions but this is not accurate information. If this disease is as infectious as implied the number of positive unconfirmed cases could probably be increased 10 fold if not more further reducing the percentage of the death rate. Again I'm trying to do my part, social distancing is absolutely putting this thing in check and it is a real problem. I just feel the numbers are not representing what is real.


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## Stressbaby

bstnh1 said:


> No, I'm not seeking to minimize the situation. But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion. As of Saturday, there have been 533,378 confirmed Covid19 cases in the U.S. There have been 20,601 documented Covid19 and pneumonia deaths. Because many people exhibit very mild or no symptoms from Covid19, it's assumed the number of cases is much higher than what has been documented. Contrast those numbers with the numbers for the current seasonal flu season which, by all measures, has been milder than most. CDC estimates there have been between 39 and 56 million cases of the seasonal flu so far this season. Because the flu is not a reportable disease, the CDC develops estimates based on what data they have. CDC also estimates that there have been between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to the seasonal flu this season. CDC further estimates that there have been between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations for the flu and between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths from the seasonal flu through April 11th. Yes, Covid19 appears to be much more contagious than the seasonal flu. But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion. There is plenty of hype and fear mongering trying to convince us that Covid19 is going to bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to. But that's all it is - hype and fear mongering.



A couple of serious flaws/fallacies here...

First, we don't shut down the country for influenza. The COVID numbers are held lower as a result of shutting everything down.

The second relates to case fatality rates and the definition of cases. The CFR for influenza uses a clinical case definition, "influenza-like illness" (link). It's true that a number of people with COVID may be minimally or asymptomatic, and that the CFR including those as cases is unknown. However, that number is also unknown for influenza, because that's not how we define cases. The COVID CFR using a case definition analgous to influenza is known, within some range, and it is on the order of 10X higher than influenza.

And finally the Slippery Slope Fallacy - You conclude by saying that it will "bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to." If anyone said that in this thread, I missed it.


----------



## sour_grapes

bstnh1 said:


> But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion.
> 
> 
> But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion.



Color me confused, then. The numbers you cite indicate a far, far higher fatality rate for COVID than the flu. But you temper that with the assumption (your term) that there are many asymptomatic COVID cases. Leading you to conclude that there are "no statistics to support" the conclusion that COVID has a higher fatality rate?

But again, we don't need to speculate what it would look like if the virus circulates widely. We already know what it looks like in New York, and that is _with_ a shutdown.


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## Johnd

I don’t subscribe to media hype, ever, and have spent an inordinate amount of my time trying to stay gainfully informed.
It is my opinion, and only mine, that there is no such thing as acceptable losses as it relates to this virus. Whensomeone starts to minimize the life of another human as an acceptable number, it saddens my heart, particularly at this time of the year. 
What sort of death numbers need to be generated before we start to care for one another?


----------



## Newlyretired

bstnh1 said:


> No, I'm not seeking to minimize the situation. But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion. As of Saturday, there have been 533,378 confirmed Covid19 cases in the U.S. There have been 20,601 documented Covid19 and pneumonia deaths. Because many people exhibit very mild or no symptoms from Covid19, it's assumed the number of cases is much higher than what has been documented. Contrast those numbers with the numbers for the current seasonal flu season which, by all measures, has been milder than most. CDC estimates there have been between 39 and 56 million cases of the seasonal flu so far this season. Because the flu is not a reportable disease, the CDC develops estimates based on what data they have. CDC also estimates that there have been between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to the seasonal flu this season. CDC further estimates that there have been between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations for the flu and between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths from the seasonal flu through April 11th. Yes, Covid19 appears to be much more contagious than the seasonal flu. But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion. There is plenty of hype and fear mongering trying to convince us that Covid19 is going to bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to. But that's all it is - hype and fear mongering.


Wow if I say more i would be banned for life.


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## bstnh1

Stressbaby said:


> And finally the Slippery Slope Fallacy - You conclude by saying that it will "bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to." If anyone said that in this thread, I missed it.


I did not see that conclusion here. But I've heard it said in many different forms by various medical and non-medical people on TV. Some have made it sound like life as we know it will be brutally altered - ie .. stadium seating will be feet apart, concerts will no longer involve people crowded together, airline seats will be feet apart, we will no longer shake hands, etc., etc. IMHO, none of that will occur.


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## GreginND

We have definitely hit at least a local peak in new daily infections in the US. This has not yet had an effect on overall infections and active cases, but it should pretty soon if the trend continues. The death toll continues to rise with about 2000 per day today. I would be surprised if we were to keep that under 50-60 thousand.


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## bstnh1

Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said he hopes for “a real degree of normality” by November.


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## sour_grapes

Me too!


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## Steve Wargo

I think the USA/world will continue some type of mitigation mode longer than we can see into the future. We are dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 a virus that is 5 - 10x more virulent than earlier SARS. Earlier SARS-2005 was contained because the infection/virus was transmitted after a person presented symptoms, not before, still no vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19, / Novel Coronavirus (many names the same virus) does not present early symptoms, so the person is unaware of being infected. Infected COVID-19 persons can spread the virus before presenting with symptoms. One can get COVID-19 just by talking to an infected person, or that person breathing near you, or you running or jogging, walking behind a person infected with COVID-19. Then there are all the surface contact contaminations. November 2020 will be wearing a protective mask, washing your hands, take a shower after arriving home, wash your clothes / jacket immediately after getting home kind of normal. We didn't get a blueprint of this COVID-19 until Mid January 2020. Still, a lot to learn about it. Stay Safe.


----------



## ibglowin

Just looked at our bank account online and the stimulus money is there (processing) I can see the amount. Should be officially transferred by later this afternoon. Start checking if you used direct deposit.


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## bstnh1

ibglowin said:


> Just looked at our bank account online and the stimulus money is there (processing) I can see the amount. Should be officially transferred by later this afternoon. Start checking if you used direct deposit.


Mine is there too, but with an effective date of Wednesday 4/15.


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## bstnh1

Steve Wargo said:


> I think the USA/world will continue some type of mitigation mode longer than we can see into the future. We are dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 a virus that is 5 - 10x more virulent than earlier SARS. Earlier SARS-2005 was contained because the infection/virus was transmitted after a person presented symptoms, not before, still no vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19, / Novel Coronavirus (many names the same virus) does not present early symptoms, so the person is unaware of being infected. Infected COVID-19 persons can spread the virus before presenting with symptoms. One can get COVID-19 just by talking to an infected person, or that person breathing near you, or you running or jogging, walking behind a person infected with COVID-19. Then there are all the surface contact contaminations. November 2020 will be wearing a protective mask, washing your hands, take a shower after arriving home, wash your clothes / jacket immediately after getting home kind of normal. We didn't get a blueprint of this COVID-19 until Mid January 2020. Still, a lot to learn about it. Stay Safe.


Nope. I don't believe people will be that paranoid in November that they'll be wearing masks and running for the shower the minute they get home and throwing their clothes in the washing machine on the way. The common cold and the flu are both typically contagious before a person shows symptoms. We don't shed our clothes and dive into the shower because of those. The paranoia surrounding this virus is utterly amazing.


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## joeswine

I was talking to a fellow wine maker last night ( Kate). Who is a head of the viruses task force for appropriation for a major hospital here in NJ.
Her comments,in brief.
South Jersey hospital's can't get masks, or any of the other tools needed to fight with, she's begging MFGS. .there all being sent up north.
Asked "did this comes from Bats?" "She said yes ,most definitely. The proved it."
Are masks effective?
"No only if you have the virus".
We talked for over and hour , about making the sanitizer, etc.
She also stated that for some reason others are lumping all deaths together ( respiratory,heart,and flu, it's crazy .)
This is a lady who knows first hand and I trust and not a bad wine maker by the way.
It wasan interesting conversation after that I went down to the cellar and opened up a bottle of Sanginvese.


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## bstnh1

joeswine said:


> I was talking to a fellow wine maker last night ( Kate). Who is a head of the viruses task force for appropriation for a major hospital here in NJ.
> Her comments,in brief.
> South Jersey hospital's can't get masks, or any of the other tools needed to fight with, she's begging MFGS. .there all being sent up north.
> Asked "did this comes from Bats?" "She said yes ,most definitely. The proved it."
> Are masks effective?
> "No only if you have the virus".
> We talked for over and hour , about making the sanitizer, etc.
> She also stated that for some reason others are lumping all deaths together ( respiratory,heart,and flu, it's crazy .)
> This is a lady who knows first hand and I trust and not a bad wine maker by the way.
> It wasan interesting conversation after that I went down to the cellar and opened up a bottle of Sanginvese.


It seems that no one has died recently from any cause other than Covid-19!


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## Stressbaby

bstnh1 said:


> Nope. I don't believe people will be that paranoid in November that they'll be wearing masks and running for the shower the minute they get home and throwing their clothes in the washing machine on the way. The common cold and the flu are both typically contagious before a person shows symptoms. We don't shed our clothes and dive into the shower because of those. The paranoia surrounding this virus is utterly amazing.



Maybe not, but there is clearly no "normal" by November.









"I’ve read the plans to reopen the economy. They’re scary."


There is no plan to return to normal.




www.vox.com





Also, see my prior replies on case fatality rates.


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## joeswine

Normal is what one makes it, will it ever return, who knows?
We need to take each day in stride.take a breath, don't blame anyone and try to move forward.
That's who we are.


----------



## Boatboy24

I've been tracking cases in Virginia for about a month now. Yesterday looked good, but as I expected, we are back up today (I try to check daily between noon and 1pm). Blue line is the 7 day moving average. Hoping the heavy volume these last few days is our peak.


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## Kraffty

Hey Jim, are you guys ok with the weather out your way today? Be Safe.
Mike


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## ibglowin

Yea, complete and unwarranted paranoia.












bstnh1 said:


> The paranoia surrounding this virus is utterly amazing.


----------



## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> Hey Jim, are you guys ok with the weather out your way today? Be Safe.
> Mike



It sure was nasty this morning. 76 and partly sunny now, though pretty fierce winds. There is a tornado watch and high wind warnings until 6pm local. I went for a run a couple hours ago and with the exception of the occasional strong headwind and puddle jumps, it was quite pleasant.


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## Johnd

If accurate, this is significant.....








Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death


A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin



public.flourish.studio


----------



## Boatboy24

Johnd said:


> If accurate, this is significant.....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Covid vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death
> 
> 
> A Flourish data visualisation by Robert Martin
> 
> 
> 
> public.flourish.studio



Rather alarming.


----------



## Johnd

Boatboy24 said:


> Rather alarming.



Putting it into perspective, the comparison to other diseases / events, as we get this thing under control, the deaths per day won’t continue at that rate. Here in LA, we peaked (new cases) 10 days ago, 2 - 3 weeks after closing non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing. Most other states are doing the same, but not all.


----------



## Boatboy24

Johnd said:


> Putting it into perspective, the comparison to other diseases / events, as we get this thing under control, the deaths per day won’t continue at that rate. Here in LA, we peaked (new cases) 10 days ago, 2 - 3 weeks after closing non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing. Most other states are doing the same, but not all.




Interestingly, Virginia will have been 'closed' for two weeks tomorrow (Tuesday). A lot of schools and businesses sent people home a week or two prior to that. But we're still seeing 'studies' (they're mostly opinion pieces) stating that we won't peak until June. So much out there, that you can't believe any of it.


----------



## mainshipfred

I wish I knew what to believe.


----------



## Johnd

Boatboy24 said:


> Interestingly, Virginia will have been 'closed' for two weeks tomorrow (Tuesday). A lot of schools and businesses sent people home a week or two prior to that. But we're still seeing 'studies' (they're mostly opinion pieces) stating that we won't peak until June. So much out there, that you can't believe any of it.


Our schools last day was March 13, closed non-essential businesses on March 22, statewide stay at home on March 23. Here’s our new cases graph:


We got started with infections pretty early here, Mardi Gras may be the reason. It takes 2 - 3 weeks for the efforts to show up, folks infected in the last few days before the orders were issued may take up to two weeks to show signs and go for a test, several more days before the results are reported. The stats you see today are about what happened, infection-wise, 2 - 3 weeks ago. If your state does it well, you’ll see results.

As our cases go down, I’m skeptical that will be the end, as folks start to venture out again and start it all back up. We‘ll see........


----------



## Rice_Guy

bstnh1 said:


> . . . . Some have made it sound like life as we know it will be brutally altered - ie .. IMHO,


* the national debt load has been bad and will be worse, , , , i an saddened to think what we are doing to our kids and grandkids
* it is amazing to see all the creativity on you tube/ the web. I hope it stays
* my kids take it as a given ordering off the web, , more of us old farts will shift that direction 
*


----------



## joeswine

Take a breath and try to be productive at home and appreciate what one has.


----------



## Stressbaby

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316



They tested every woman presenting to labor and delivery for SARS-CoV2. Of 215 women, 33 were positive and 29 of those were asymptomatic on admission. Would be interesting to know how many of the negatives are seropositive. Also indirectly highlights the fact that people don't die directly from the virus. they die in large part from the cytokine storm that results in ARDS. Figuring out how to preventing the cytokine storm, myocarditis, and other secondary effects will be important in managing the disease.


----------



## GreginND

There seems to be lots and lots of speculation out there and no one knows what to trust. I think it is important to step back, take a deep breath, and continue to follow the science as it comes out. The honest truth is we won't have all the answers about the pandemic until it is over. It is quite useless to try to make too many comparisons with past pandemics and flues that are not yet justified by the data. I do think it is important to err on the side of caution because there are many otherwise healthy people of all ages dying unexpectedly right now.

There has been some talk about herd immunity. A new study that just came out suggests that the R0 number (transmission rate) for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is twice what they originally estimated (5 vs 2-3). That means it is more contagious than thought. If true, estimates of needing 60% immune for herd immunity are too low. This would suggest we need about 85% immunity for "herd immunity" protection. That means we really really need to develop a good vaccine for this as soon as we can.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2


----------



## Kraffty

So just for a break from some of these confusing and scary stats, my wife had orders 4 packs of toilet paper weeks ago. We were expecting a total of 48 rolls of 3 ply standard size rolls at about 16.50 a pack or 1.37 a roll. Higher than the store but not killer. They took forever to ship and we finally contacted the seller who said they'll ship in a couple of more days. In the mean time the ad had been pulled due to a "mistake in the ad" and when the first package arrived it had 5 rolls of single (very thin single ply) at about 3/4 the dia. of a standard roll but still at 16.50 a pack.

I'm generally a pretty skeptical buyer compared to my wife but the flat out, in your face, gouging in a crisis genuinely upset me. We of course sent them back billed to the senders account and wrote a trashing review of the seller. Not that it matters.

Anyway, on the way back from dropping off those returns (I sent them back as four separate shipments to increase his cost) we stopped in at walmart just as they were putting some TP on the shelf, karma's not always a bad girl. I did resist the temptation to buy more than one 12 pack but ultimately decided to do as I preach and not be a part of the overall problem. We'll hopefully have better supplies and calmer attitudes 30 days from now or we'll go back to spraying each other down with a garden hose.......

Stay well and make note of JoesWine attitude and assurances in his posts and keep posting pertinent info like JohnD's Death causes per day, what an eye opener, I know I had a much more caviler attitude a month ago than now.

Mike


----------



## Boatboy24

Another good day - fingers crossed.


----------



## OilnH2O

Johnd said:


> Putting it into perspective, the comparison to other diseases / events, as we get this thing under control, the deaths per day won’t continue at that rate. Here in LA, we peaked (new cases) 10 days ago, 2 - 3 weeks after closing non-essential businesses and practicing social distancing. Most other states are doing the same, but not all.



Ah! "perspective" - that's _exactly_ what is needed right now!
The graph in Boatboy's post yesterday is what is happening in a lot of places - it is well on its way down here in Montana, having peaked on March 26th. 
So, what is happening in New York, particularly NYC and across the river in northern NJ is completely different from the LA basin, much less here in Montana (under 400 cases; 197 recovered; only 50 have been hospitalized; 24 are hospitalized today; 7 have died.)
And that "covid vs. daily average cause of death" graph Johnd posted, is really instructive - I think that is the "curve" that people talk about flattening. It updates and now is at 1535 (as of 4/13) but will continue to settle to something much lower. How much? Who knows, but probably more like the flu/pneumonia level. The two at the top, heart disease and cancer, aren't going to change until a "cure" is found. 
So, my optimism is still positive, even though _we have 4 inches of new snow on the ground this morning,_ and it's still coming down! Why be optimistic? Because the high today is supposed to be 45* - and that means no shoveling (we're not going anywhere) -- so, it's all going to melt!
(Wash your hands)


----------



## Boatboy24

Yesterday's numbers were updated, but we're still trending down.


----------



## Johnd

We’re also continuing the lower trend, though a bit level the last few days, hopefully it’ll continue on its downward trajectory.


----------



## ibglowin

We have the fortune of having a very proactive Governor that enacted a shelter in place for the entire State back in mid March when schools were shuttered. The curve has been flattening the last few days with new cases dropping down in the less than 10% (increase day over day) the last 3 days running now. Deaths however are shooting up with a 20% increase day over day just yesterday. These numbers are low compared to most any other State for the most part as we only have ~2.0M people total (5th in size)

Our biggest issue now is the explosion of new cases and deaths on the Navajo Nation (Four Corners region) as well as some of the other Pueblos in and around ABQ. The Pueblos enacted a complete closure this weekend for 48 hours (no one in or out) trying to slow the spread. Native Americans make up less that 11% of the State population but are currently closing in on almost 40% of the COVID-19 cases State wide. It doesn't look like we will be anywhere near peak ICU capacity or Vent capacity (which is not much by any means) as NM seems to be doing much better than other States in staying home. Our peak is pushed out to April 26th because of this. Data from covid19.heathdata.org


----------



## ibglowin

Latest numbers as of 4/14/20


----------



## mainshipfred

ibglowin said:


> Latest numbers as of 4/14/20
> 
> View attachment 60154



This is the first I have seen positive vs total tested results. I think this statistic is really important in preparing models that seems to get overlooked.


----------



## ibglowin

They are doing 48 hour TAT on test these days. A few weeks ago they set up a drive through testing site here in Los Alamos County They had 200 test on hand and only 135 people came. Testing requirements have been reduced. You no longer have to be running a fever or showing signs. If you have been exposed or think you may have been exposed. You can/will be tested. The (2) National Laboratories in NM are helping out with testing supplies, reagents, and even high throughput testing machines if the need arises.


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## sour_grapes

Sometimes it is good to have 1 National Lab per million population!


----------



## ibglowin

Amen! 



sour_grapes said:


> Sometimes it is good to have 1 National Lab per million population!


----------



## GreginND

I would be carefully trying to make sense of positives and negatives. My colleague has tested negative twice now but she undoubtedly has all the symptoms and lingering fever. Her husband tested positive.


----------



## joeswine

Well to day is my birthday and I thought I be in* Utah* or* Charleston* or even making plans for the end of the month for *south of France *and a wine and food tour, but alas here I am stuck doing house work and floundering around my humble abode, keep up your spirits my Vino friends the end is just around the corner, now what can I find to keep me company??


----------



## mainshipfred

joeswine said:


> Well to day is my birthday and I thought I be in* Utah* or* Charleston* or even making plans for the end of the month for *south of France *and a wine and food tour, but alas here I am stuck doing house work and floundering around my humble abode, keep up your spirits my Vino friends the end is just around the corner, now what can I find to keep me company??



There is a lot easier way to open that bottle rather than cutting it on a 45 or 90.


----------



## Kraffty

Happy Birthday Joe, All the best to you. I'm sure you'll find a way to make you day as enjoyable as possible under the circumstances.
Fred, damn how did I miss that, funny,
Mike


----------



## joeswine

anyone can use a standard opener .it takes talent and skill to use a saw and miter box


----------



## mainshipfred

joeswine said:


> anyone can use a standard opener .it takes talent and skill to use a saw and miter box



Maybe but now you're thinking inside the box.


----------



## sour_grapes

Happy birthday, Joe!


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Maybe but now you're thinking inside the box.



I see what you did there!

Happy birthday, @joeswine


----------



## Boatboy24

A bit of a bump today, but the trend is still very promising.


----------



## joeswine

Thanks to all and to all a good night


----------



## Chuck E

I have not been on the blog since 3/14/20. I just got out of the hospital. I was in the ICU for 5 days and 9 days in "recovery". I seldom get sick, so I thought if I caught the Wuhan bug it would the easy road. Not for me... I have lost about 40% of my lung capacity. The doctors are not sure if that will improve or be permanent. At least I did not get put on a ventilator.


----------



## Kraffty

First of all, so glad you made it out and survived. Please continue to improve and jump in as much a possible with your first hand knowledge.
Happy you're back!
Mike


----------



## mainshipfred

Real glad you recovered, welcome back.


----------



## ibglowin

Welcome back Chuck! Grateful your doing better. Hope you improve as time goes by.


----------



## sour_grapes

Sorry for your troubles, but glad you recovered and are back.


----------



## reeflections

Don't know you yet, but glad you made it thru. Sounds harrowing.


----------



## CDrew

Chuck E said:


> I have not been on the blog since 3/14/20. I just got out of the hospital. I was in the ICU for 5 days and 9 days in "recovery". I seldom get sick, so I thought if I caught the Wuhan bug it would the easy road. Not for me... I have lost about 40% of my lung capacity. The doctors are not sure if that will improve or be permanent. At least I did not get put on a ventilator.



I'm sure it was a frightening experience. Thanks for posting and nice to hear from you.


----------



## Boatboy24

Glad you're doing better, @Chuck E . Hang in there.


----------



## Johnd

Wow!! Happy to hear you’re on the mend, hoping for a full recovery @Chuck E !!


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## joeswine

Hi , do you remember my friend Kate, and she stated that the deaths contribute to the virus all death's, we're being lumped together , they just stated that this morning and are asking why. 
Difference in county deaths are 50%lower and not do to the virus itself. Imagine that.
Don't get me wrong one death is to many at anytime, but why do stay people think this is correct.
Or remember a saying ," never let a good crisses go to waste.,,
Take a breath and walk away tomorrow will be brighter, that's who we are.


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## 1d10t

They will estimate a death rate after this is all over with modeling. If you died of flu because you couldn't get a bed that was taken up with a covid19 patient is that covid related? Year to year comparisons over a couple years will be used. Putting too much stock into what any one person has to say right now is dangerous, regardless of their title. When my wife was sick I saw 'adamant nurses' and other technicians be totally wrong about their opinion because they only saw their area. Think blind men and the elephant. It was up to the doctors to digest information and keep their eye on the big picture.


----------



## GreginND

Chuck - glad you're back with us. Hope you continue on the healing path.

I will just say once again that we will not know any statistics for certain until this pandemic is long over. It's human nature to try to model and speculate about death rates, etc. All we can do is go by the most recent current data, and that is far from complete. Please err on the side of caution and be safe. One thing that is certain is that this is a dangerous virus in more ways than one.

Data from places around the world that have started to "reopen" are demonstrating that infections are most likely to pick up and accelerate again. My opinion is that it is best to stay the course and wait for more data, more treatment options, more testing to inform us of our risks and a vaccine.


----------



## Boatboy24

We've jumped back up the last couple days. But at least the 7 day average appears to be trying to plateau.


----------



## 1d10t

Turns out even the post pandemic modeling will be skewed because of things like this.

"Influenza, which each year kills hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, all but vanished in Europe last month as coronavirus lockdowns slowed transmission, according to EU data and scientists."

"Influenza killed 152,000 people in Europe in the 2017-18 winter. So far, COVID-19 has taken nearly 100,000 lives across the continent, albeit in a shorter period of time."









Remember the flu? Coronavirus sent it into hiding, but at a cost


At least one victim of the coronavirus pandemic will not be mourned.




www.reuters.com





Maybe masks should be more common all the time?


----------



## Doug’s wines

Georgia reopening starting this Friday. 









Kemp: Restaurants, other businesses to reopen in Georgia amid COVID-19 fight


Kemp, Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, House Speaker David Ralston, and other officials discussed reopening the state during a briefing on Monday.




www.fox5atlanta.com


----------



## Boatboy24

Doug’s wines said:


> Georgia reopening starting this Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kemp: Restaurants, other businesses to reopen in Georgia amid COVID-19 fight
> 
> 
> Kemp, Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, House Speaker David Ralston, and other officials discussed reopening the state during a briefing on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fox5atlanta.com



Too soon (IMHO)


----------



## sour_grapes

Doug’s wines said:


> Georgia reopening starting this Friday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kemp: Restaurants, other businesses to reopen in Georgia amid COVID-19 fight
> 
> 
> Kemp, Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, House Speaker David Ralston, and other officials discussed reopening the state during a briefing on Monday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fox5atlanta.com





Boatboy24 said:


> Too soon (IMHO)



Yeah, I am rooting for them, I really am. I would LOVE to be proven wrong about this, but I am worried about a second wave for them.

Oh, well, at least they have the CDC conveniently located in Georgia!


----------



## Doug’s wines

I’m currently in Georgia so will let you know how it goes.


----------



## 1d10t

They may mistakenly believe that with summer coming this will recede as the flu does. There is no evidence to support a warm weather reprieve but there is mounting evidence that it is plainly wrong.


----------



## Johnd

1d10t said:


> They may mistakenly believe that with summer coming this will recede as the flu does. There is no evidence to support a warm weather reprieve but there is mounting evidence that it is plainly wrong.


It‘s been spreading rampantly in Louisiana, unhindered by the warm temps we have already had down here, that myth should already be debunked.....


----------



## Boatboy24

Still on the rise in Virginia.


----------



## Doug’s wines

Interesting analysis on the characteristics of the spread and the (non?) impact of the attempts to control:









The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus


A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies




www.timesofisrael.com





Maybe there is hope for us here in GA!


----------



## GreginND

Although most places are limited, ND is one of the states that has not done a lockdown. While a lot of people are being smart with PPE and distancing, there are still idiots congregating at stores that really shouldn't be open and having parties.


----------



## Boatboy24

Doug’s wines said:


> Interesting analysis on the characteristics of the spread and the (non?) impact of the attempts to control:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus
> 
> 
> A similar pattern – rapid increase in infections to a peak in the sixth week, and decline from the eighth week – is common everywhere, regardless of response policies
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.timesofisrael.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Maybe there is hope for us here in GA!



Interesting read.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Have to wonder how this ends? There are too many “important” folks who are fortune telling. ,,, Rush on the radio yesterday was extrapolating from a Stanford test to say half the test area was already infected. ,,,, ie why worry ,,, get back to normal.


1d10t said:


> "Influenza killed 152,000 people in Europe in the 2017-18 winter. So far, COVID-19 has taken nearly 100,000 lives across the continent, albeit in a shorter period .... Maybe masks should be more common all the time,,,


At this point I wish the university here had a similar data set ,,,,, when daughter #1 was sick for a week what was it ,,, and since I helped her move on March 2nd did I get it too? and were the cough/ sore throat the mild form? and ... we can only catch it once .. etc 


1d10t said:


> Putting too much stock into what any one person has to say right now is dangerous, regardless of their title. When my wife was sick I saw 'adamant nurses' and other technicians be totally wrong about their opinion because they only saw their area. Think blind men and the elephant. It was up to the doctors to digest information and keep their eye on the big picture.


My personal preference is for big data sets. 
Does this mean the phone or fit bit monitor my health and send out a notice to go to the hospital to visit #1 and get the more accurate PCR test?
As a globe we will have reservoirs of pathogen. I take it as a given that we are at least two years with this risk factor.

A side note the voice on the radio uses terms like “personal freedom” or “constitutional rights”. 
***** We as a society need to debate if we care about the common good****


----------



## cmason1957

Or stop listening to the big fat guy from my hometown of Cape Girardeau, MO who is an expert on absolutly nothing, but talking. Hes' been that way since before he graduated high school, same year as my older brother (or maybe sister, they were a year apart, so sometimes I get confused).


----------



## Steve Wargo

Money to be made when a person dies of coronavirus. No one dying of anything else these days. Previous deaths re-classified as coronavirus deaths, can't be going on. Is it possible to die twice of coronavirus? It makes one wonder
one wonder.


----------



## Johnd

Steve Wargo said:


> Money to be made when a person dies of coronavirus. No one dying of anything else these days. Previous deaths re-classified as coronavirus deaths, can't be going on. Is it possible to die twice of coronavirus? It makes one wonderView attachment 60324
> one wonder.


Just a smidge of research before spreading lies??? No? OK, let me help. This is the same guy, Lenard Wells, who was both a RETIRED police officer from Wisconsin AND a professor in Memphis (his retirement gig). He passed while in Wisconsin, where he was saluted for his contributions there in the PD, but his passing was also recognized where he lived and taught, Memphis. So you see, he didn’t die twice, he just meant something different to the two communities he touched. If you’d like to see for yourself, click these two articles:









69-year-old retired Milwaukee police lieutenant died from COVID-19







fox6now.com












University of Memphis professor dies from coronavirus, report says


The University of Memphis is mourning the loss of a criminal justice professor who died from the coronavirus.




www.kiro7.com


----------



## GreginND

John, Thanks for the clarification. There's usually a good explanation for most things.

I know these topics can spur passions and speculation. I think it is important to remember to research what you post, respond with kindness and give people the benefit of the doubt. I don't think anyone intended to spread lies.

We should be careful about speculation and unfounded conspiracy theories. I think this can be a place to discuss these important topics and release some steam. But, please try to be thoughtful.

Thanks.

Greg


----------



## Boatboy24

The Virginia Dept of Health updates it's Coronavirus site daily between 9 and 10am. Yesterday, they reported the largest single-day increase in new cases yet. Today, they haven't updated their site.


----------



## Chuck E

Even if your state "opens for business" you still can make the choice to stay in your home. As humans, we have to evaluate the risks of living individually.


----------



## 1d10t

Boatboy24 said:


> The Virginia Dept of Health updates it's Coronavirus site daily between 9 and 10am. Yesterday, they reported the largest single-day increase in new cases yet. Today, they haven't updated their site.


I don't follow the charts as much right now. Reporting guidelines have changed. Testing is still ramping up. Fatalities is sadly probably the most accurate figure right now and even that has some room for improvement. They have now found people in California that died back in February from the disease so this hit the shores much earlier than known and the requirements for who was tested were way to limited.


----------



## Kraffty

I'm genuinely struggling with resolving my personal stance on this whole thing. It's almost impossible to believe my opinions have any weight or validity when, like it or not, they are so heavily influenced by my personal situation. Like quite a few of you I'm semi retired or retired depending on the day of the week or my mood. I've got very few monthly expenses and have a little rainy day money set aside. I strongly believe (I think) we need to stay as shut down and distanced as possible for quite a while longer especially considering how mixed the info we're getting is. It's pretty easy to take that stand though when it comes with few personal consequences.
However,
If I were 10 or 20 years younger, still had a business open to the public, had 15 or 20 employees depending on that weekly check or I was depending on a weekly check and that business had to shutter, I'm sure my view would be completely different. I'm also sure I would strongly believe in that view.

Chuck E's couple of lines say it well and I'll do what I believe is best for me and mine. They may open things back up early to improve the economy but I don't see businesses thriving because of it -lack of customers- and if anything I see it doing more damage and prolonging the time it takes to get past this.

Stay safe and thoughtful and considerate of others.
I'll climb down now but do feel a bit better sharing those thoughts.

Mike


----------



## Johnd

GreginND said:


> John, Thanks for the clarification. There's usually a good explanation for most things.
> 
> I know these topics can spur passions and speculation. I think it is important to remember to research what you post, respond with kindness and give people the benefit of the doubt. I don't think anyone intended to spread lies.
> 
> We should be careful about speculation and unfounded conspiracy theories. I think this can be a place to discuss these important topics and release some steam. But, please try to be thoughtful.
> 
> Thanks.
> 
> Greg



Duly noted, and you are correct, I certainly didn’t mean cause any hard feelings, just wanted to nip it in the bud. We should all know better than to repost something already noted as #FakeNews. 

I feel particularly bad for the gentleman who’s the subject of this viral conspiracy post, dedicated his life to the service of others in both Law Enforcement and Education, a life cut short by COVID-19 and exploited by this post.


----------



## mainshipfred

Kraffty said:


> I'm genuinely struggling with resolving my personal stance on this whole thing. It's almost impossible to believe my opinions have any weight or validity when, like it or not, they are so heavily influenced by my personal situation. Like quite a few of you I'm semi retired or retired depending on the day of the week or my mood. I've got very few monthly expenses and have a little rainy day money set aside. I strongly believe (I think) we need to stay as shut down and distanced as possible for quite a while longer especially considering how mixed the info we're getting is. It's pretty easy to take that stand though when it comes with few personal consequences.
> However,
> If I were 10 or 20 years younger, still had a business open to the public, had 15 or 20 employees depending on that weekly check or I was depending on a weekly check and that business had to shutter, I'm sure my view would be completely different. I'm also sure I would strongly believe in that view.
> 
> Chuck E's couple of lines say it well and I'll do what I believe is best for me and mine. They may open things back up early to improve the economy but I don't see businesses thriving because of it -lack of customers- and if anything I see it doing more damage and prolonging the time it takes to get past this.
> 
> Stay safe and thoughtful and considerate of others.
> I'll climb down now but do feel a bit better sharing those thoughts.
> 
> Mike



Very well stated Mike, my feelings exactly. I do have employees that wouldn't be able to survive without their weekly pay check.


----------



## 1d10t

Yes, personal circumstance will shape opinion. But, look at the personal circumstances of those on the front line pleading with others to do their part. If front line combat troops were pleading for bullets would you be out target practicing?


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> Even if your state "opens for business" you still can make the choice to stay in your home. As humans, we have to evaluate the risks of living individually.



That is certainly true. However, collective actions greatly influence those risks. For example, in most locales, it is not legal to discharge a firearm in a residential area. Although that rule limits my freedom to discharge a firearm as I please, we collectively decided to put those strictures in place to mitigate one of the "risks of living." So, yes, we must evaluate risks individually, AND we owe it to each other (collectively) to mitigate risks to others.


----------



## Boatboy24

1d10t said:


> I don't follow the charts as much right now. Reporting guidelines have changed. Testing is still ramping up. Fatalities is sadly probably the most accurate figure right now and even that has some room for improvement. They have now found people in California that died back in February from the disease so this hit the shores much earlier than known and the requirements for who was tested were way to limited.



I'm facetiously putting on my tin foil hat when making the comment about today's numbers, but you make a very good point. As an example, Virginia's numbers (beginning this week) are given in total, and also broken down between positive test results and 'presumed' positives where no test was given but symptoms are present and a contact is confirmed/likely. What I don't know is were the presumed positives included prior to this week or not. If not, it very easily explains and delegitimizes yesterday's 'largest single day increase'. I'm always trying to get data and news from as many sources as possible - and that is even more true now. Bottom line is we (John Q Public) are lucky to get fully non-biased, non-partisan, non-agenda bearing information so it's important to consider your sources and seek to confirm with solid data. A lot of 'facts' being presented out there with "I fear that..." or "If this trend continues...", etc. While some of these will start with hard data, the conclusions are based on assumptions or worse.

I try to start with assuming good intent. Sometimes I'm better at that than others.


----------



## 1d10t

One reporter for Cleveland dot com has been doing a decent job while admitting the numbers seemed to be getting harder to parse. Today he posted this article about it.


----------



## cmason1957

I have begun to wonder what all the fuss is about. Oh sure we've had large numbers of people catching this and deaths from it, but nowhere near the numbers predicted and certainly the death rate (very thankfully has been much smaller than expected). Certainly some who get it have had a really rough time of it, many days in the ICU, much cost, but so far, the hype has not equaled the response we have given it and maybe that's a really good thing and due to all the distancing and such. I really don't know. For me it hasn't made much difference, except on weekends, when I would normally have been out and about more. I am among the lucky where we are continuing to be gainfully and fully employed. 

I read that the numbers of people with antibodies are much, much higher than numbers of people reported with it and to me that sounds like a good thing, many less percentage points are very negatively impacted by being exposed. I just don't even know what to think anymore. Maybe that's all I'm trying to say.


----------



## GreginND

Chuck E said:


> Even if your state "opens for business" you still can make the choice to stay in your home. As humans, we have to evaluate the risks of living individually.



The problem for those who are most vulnerable, is that this doesn't give them a choice. They must remain isolated the longer we drag this out and others are making that choice for them. I definitely see your point, though. I don't have any easy solutions and personally am very mixed about this as well. So, I look for data which is spotty and won't be fully understood until we are well past this pandemic. Sweden has been touted as a poster child for not shutting down and doing great! Well, that is not really true. All of their neighbors have peaked and numbers of new infections and deaths are going down. Sweden is still rising. And their economy is barely better than the rest. So, I guess we won't know until we know. I want to open my business. But other areas of the world that have eased up are having to shut down again because of spiking new cases and deaths. At this point I err on the side of protecting people with the best information I have.

As a good friend of mine recently said, "The goal of this is to have as many of us alive on the other side as possible."


----------



## Stressbaby

cmason1957 said:


> I read that the numbers of people with antibodies are much, much higher than numbers of people reported with it and to me that sounds like a good thing, many less percentage points are very negatively impacted by being exposed. I just don't even know what to think anymore. Maybe that's all I'm trying to say.



It's good in that herd immunity might be achieved sooner than was previously thought. However, we don't know a lot about these tests and their sensitivity, specificity. Further, the predictive value of these tests depends upon the prevalence of the disease, and we don't really know that either.


----------



## Steve Wargo

Johnd said:


> Just a smidge of research before spreading lies??? No? OK, let me help. This is the same guy, Lenard Wells, who was both a RETIRED police officer from Wisconsin AND a professor in Memphis (his retirement gig). He passed while in Wisconsin, where he was saluted for his contributions there in the PD, but his passing was also recognized where he lived and taught, Memphis. So you see, he didn’t die twice, he just meant something different to the two communities he touched. If you’d like to see for yourself, click these two articles:
> 
> 
> I did some but obviously did not do enough research pertaining to the posted pic. I apologize to the group and the Wells family. Thank you for bringing this to my attention


----------



## Boatboy24

Another daily record here in Virginia. Not a good thing. I can only hope it's due to increased testing.


----------



## Kraffty

I wrote a few days back about being gouged and ripped off by a seller on Ebay...well... I received back today the 20 rolls of TP we returned as undeliverable because the seller closed his doors and left no forwarding address. Ebay returned our money and additionally they banned the guy as a seller. I don't know how that works and would guess he'll be back under a different name but regardless of that it all caught up to him in this moment.
Mike


----------



## OilnH2O

So much is being learned that will be helpful in the future. But, the differences in locale are profound; just as my biggest worry is getting to be bud-break while others are posting pictures on "show us your clusters!"

Montana begins our gradual opening Sunday, beginning with houses of worship (within guidelines of course). Then phased over the next few weeks. I look forward to being able to get a haircut - with my barber I had to make an appointment before, and it was just the two of us. I suppose he'll have to wear a mask in his shop now! 

I know some are against this, but the screen shot below (taken April 24th) shows the difference between Montana and elsewhere. Our big hospitals in Billings, Missoula, Bozeman and elsewhere have laid off many doctors and nurses who are not dealing with the C-19 outbreak. Over 600 in Kalispell Regional Medical Center alone. Note below - today, only 12 cases are hospitalized across the state (thus 2-3 in each hospital) with a total of 59 hospitalized since the first case was presented (March 11). The peak cases/day was March 26 and declined ever since; there were two new cases yesterday - shown below at the right of the chart. It's not on the screen shot but Montana has had (as of today 4/24) a total of 444 cases.











Story Map Series


This story map was created with the Story Map Series application in ArcGIS Online.




montana.maps.arcgis.com





Some will say that we, along with other states, "shouldn't open at all" because of not enough of this test, not enough PPE, or there is an increased risk to others. But, people are making decisions about elective surgeries and diagnostic procedures - those are "non-essential" as are some other procedures, but some delays can be detrimental to the patient, too. 

It's a complex issue, for sure, but I hope _we all get through this okay_ and back to worrying about bud-break, late frosts (in my case) and how many camden tabs to add between rackings!


----------



## GreginND

While there is great news for numbers in New York City, the number of new cases in the rest of the country are not declining. And, unfortunately, active cases continue to rise. Along with that, the number of deaths will continue to rise. *sigh


----------



## opus345

"_I look forward to being able to get a haircut - with my barber I had to make an appointment before, and it was just the two of us. I suppose he'll have to wear a mask in his shop now!_"

I checked, Flowbees are sold out on Amazon and Walmart.


----------



## Boatboy24

opus345 said:


> "_I look forward to being able to get a haircut - with my barber I had to make an appointment before, and it was just the two of us. I suppose he'll have to wear a mask in his shop now!_"
> 
> I checked, Flowbees are sold out on Amazon and Walmart.




I went to order some clippers from Amazon a couple weeks ago. The only name brand I knew was Wahl. Those were all sold out. I did find some at Target though.

I've learned some valuable skills. Did my own sides and back of my head twice, my kids once. Last Sunday, the whole head, with the top longer than the sides and back. Top is a tad shorter than I normally get it cut, but not bad at all. If I do say so myself, a pretty decent haircut. But the rest of the head isn't much to work with, so perhaps there's only so much damage one can do with the hair alone.


----------



## Kraffty

If I mentioned this before forgive my memory but my wife went to hair dressing school straight out of High School and worked in salons for 10 or 15 years. She cut my hair in my 20's - think david cassidy style nonsense, in my 30's - young professional grooming, on and off and after we took a long hiatus from each other we picked up with the hair cutting in my late 40's - more Drew Carrey I guess now. Yep I got me one valuable wife now fellas....
Mike


----------



## sour_grapes

Pardon me if I mentioned this before. I decided to buy clippers early enough that I still had my choice on Amazon. Being the cheap-ass that I am, I opted for the Conair $12 special from Amazon rather than the $20 Wahls. I buzzed my head the same length (#4) all over. It is/was a horrible job, but that will change with time! Not like I care at the moment...


----------



## 1d10t

I just let it grow so this has been no problem for me.


----------



## Kraffty

gal durn hippy freaks.......


----------



## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> Pardon me if I mentioned this before. I decided to buy clippers early enough that I still had my choice on Amazon. Being the cheap-ass that I am, I opted for the Conair $12 special from Amazon rather than the $20 Wahls. I buzzed my head the same length (#4) all over. It is/was horrible a horrible job, but that will change with time! Not like I care at the moment...



Try a 4 all over, then a 3 on the sides and back (or maybe even a 2). Lots of good YouTube videos on how to self-cut.


----------



## Boatboy24

Virginia set a record today for the number of new cases with 772. In fact, 3 of the last 5 days have been 'the highest ever' reported new cases. Peaking? Nope.


----------



## GreginND

Big spike in the US yesterday. I don't know exactly what this means. Number of deaths was down, but they lag new infections by 1-2 weeks typically and that could reflect the leveling of the new infections.


----------



## Doug’s wines

Lots of new testing capacity coming online and no normalization of the data so likely to see big spikes as it turns on.


----------



## joeswine

I just went out and bought a violin it went with the long Italian Rivera look.


----------



## Doug’s wines

Interesting forecast site:









Data-Driven Innovation Lab


The Data-Driven Innovation Lab advances data science and artificial intelligence to inform, inspire and intelligentize the innovation process.




ddi.sutd.edu.sg


----------



## Boatboy24

I heard earlier that Virginia in the last 'few days' (words of the Governor) has been conducting twice as many tests as we were a week ago. That certainly explains the increase in reported cases per day.


----------



## mainshipfred

I find this extremely informative, LOL!


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> I find this extremely informative, LOL!




Excellent summary, thanks for sharing, Fred!


----------



## ZebraB

I saw this in the paper today. 

"We are a group of passionate citizen-scientists who offer four actionable, non-partisan proposals to produce safe and effective COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines in the shortest possible timeframe, and to reopen our society in a manner that reduces the risk of future COVID-19 outbreaks. None of the contributors named in this proposal have any direct or known indirect financial interests in the referenced companies. Our only motivation is to help defeat the serious threat our nation and the world now faces." Attached is thier plan


----------



## Kraffty

Thanks Fred, I was confused but now I'm not... except for a little that I'm now clear about,
Mike


----------



## Boatboy24

Looks like the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds will be flying within a mile of the house tomorrow.


----------



## Kraffty

They're in the Phoenix area noonish today but that's about 100 miles south of us, I love seeing those guys and both groups together would be awesome. Take some Pics!


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> Looks like the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds will be flying within a mile of the house tomorrow.



Heck, I'll be in Hamilton at that time tomorrow, probably won't be able to see them.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Heck, I'll be in Hamilton at that time tomorrow, probably won't be able to see them.



Bummer! I'm trying to pin down the exact flight path, but the maps I've seen get really blurry when you start to zoom in. It looks like they'll be flying almost directly over the Wegmans, but I can't tell.


----------



## ibglowin

The 4 Corners region of the Navajo Nation continues to blow up. Things are so bad that the mayor of Gallup asked the Gov of NM to lock down the City with no travel in or out. There are now more positive test in McKinley County (pop 71,000) than in Bernalillo County where ABQ is located (pop 679,000). The rest of the State has peaked as far as new cases but deaths are still on the rise as we are losing many of the elderly population in the 4 Corners area every day. Many of the nursing homes in that region are especially hard hit at the moment.


----------



## Boatboy24

Hey Mike: What's the testing rate been like? I've been concerned about the rise in Virginia, but assume that it was due to increase testing. Fortunately, that turned out to be the case. In the last 10-12 days, testing here has tripled.


----------



## ibglowin

NM got out of the gates early and fast and has ramped up quickly. At one point I think we were second in the nation as far as testing per capita behind only NY. As things have peaked around the bulk of the State they have been shifting resources to the 4 corners area moving supplies on a daily basis which is why the numbers up there are now exploding.

As you know I have family in TX which on the day they decided to relax and open back up they had the highest one day death rate to date. TX is not testing. The have a less than 1% testing rate. NM is over 3% now. But yeah, lets reopen. All clear......



Boatboy24 said:


> Hey Mike: What's the testing rate been like? I've been concerned about the rise in Virginia, but assume that it was due to increase testing. Fortunately, that turned out to be the case. In the last 10-12 days, testing here has tripled.


----------



## Boatboy24

As it turned out, they flew right over our house. But we had a much better vantage point from a work zone about a mile away.


----------



## jswordy

My home state of Tennessee is wide open and working hard to build up the fall and winter peak but my wife and I have been isolated for 7 weeks. She took a leave from her retail job to avoid being exposed during the peak. I own a farm, so I had to go out twice for parts, once for fertilizer and twice to grocery shop.

I know it is not PC to say this but I am loving this life! This is the first spring since 1992 that I have been here daytimes to watch it unfold - beautiful! I am fortunate to still be paid by the university and my work continues, busier than ever actually, from home. I just wish I had more time to get more of the often delayed projects around here done, but I have tackled several.

I can definitely see the benefits of retirement and I cannot wait! We've worked pretty hard for 30 years to get this place decent and it should be a fun thing to mess around with in my retired years. I have 2 years and 5 months to a pension, so I am trying to hold out. But this experience has been such a joy. I'm not tensed up about my workday or about what is going to happen tomorrow, I can go out and see nature anytime I want to, and my work is getting done. Very blessed.

Now if my friend's dad would just get off the ventilator for good and my other friend's grandmother and two aunts could get off theirs, it would be perfect. I am never far way from COVID, as I cover it for the university in a variety of ways.

Today we passed 65,000 sons and daughters, brothers and sisters, cousins, mothers and fathers, grandmothers and grandfathers. Gone. As I said, I am very blessed.


----------



## ibglowin

Opinion | How New Mexico Is Beating the Virus (Published 2020)


It has two things missing elsewhere: political leadership and a strong health system.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## ibglowin

This might be my wife's (and many other wives thoughts about now).....


----------



## ibglowin

The Darwin Awards have begun.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/23/ohio-funeral-canceled-coronavirus/


----------



## jswordy

NY Post coins my new favorite word: Covidiot.












Covidiot cuts hole in mask to make it ‘easier to breathe’


A Kentucky covidiot was captured in a viral clip shopping with a hole cut in her face mask, claiming that it made it “easier to breathe.” Footage posted on TikTok showed a gas station c…




nypost.com


----------



## jswordy

Thoughts on the approach to 70,000 dead... over 10,000 more than in the Vietnam war, and in a matter of weeks, not over 20 years.

Gotta say, for all those who are protesting about their "rights," this crisis has pretty much made a nice clean line between those who are "all about me" and those who are "all about us." It is real easy to identify who is who.

I wish these early open, let me do what I want types would spend some time with my ER cardiologist friend in southern Georgia, where it is a complete disaster - a disaster that experts say will become more widespread after we open up. I want Steve to tell them how it feels to watch people die by drowning in their own thick mucous. I got to see my MIL die up close and personal from COPD - it was gruesome - and he told me COVID makes COPD look like an easy death.

Ah, but on the other hand, these "ME, ME, ME" types are so hardheaded, even watching somebody die that way wouldn't affect them. 

I have three friends so far who have retired rather than be called back to unsafe working conditions. We're all of that age or thereabouts. I could too, and I will if I have to return to an unmanageable and unsafe situation. 

I have zero faith in my country or the federal government, both of which I think are dying. 

"E Pluribus Unum," my foot. It should read "You're On Yer Own!"

OK, soapbox removed. Yank this if inappropriate. It's how I feel.


----------



## Boatboy24

Virginia will begin "opening up" next Friday. Myself (easy for me to say, I'm not working) and most of my friends and family are saying "that's great, have fun with it" and will continue to distance and minimize trips to public places and even smaller gatherings (most are able to work from home - even if at reduced hours/pay in some cases). There are those that are in dire straits and have to work, and I get that. I just hope they can find sufficient support from those who are venturing out. Wait staff in restaurants is one group that I know are suffering immensely and want to get back to work. We go to a nearby Bonefish Grill about once a month for lunch and almost always have the same waiter - he is excellent at his job and we're always happy when we get seated in his section. I saw him at Wegman's a couple weeks ago training to be a cashier. Really sucks, but I'm glad he was able to find something. Just wish we can all get back to normal sooner than later.


----------



## Boatboy24




----------



## Chuck E

jswordy said:


> Thoughts on the approach to 70,000 dead... over 10,000 more than in the Vietnam war, and in a matter of weeks, not over 20 years.
> 
> Gotta say, for all those who are protesting about their "rights," this crisis has pretty much made a nice clean line between those who are "all about me" and those who are "all about us." It is real easy to identify who is who.
> 
> I wish these early open, let me do what I want types would spend some time with my ER cardiologist friend in southern Georgia, where it is a complete disaster - a disaster that experts say will become more widespread after we open up. I want Steve to tell them how it feels to watch people die by drowning in their own thick mucous. I got to see my MIL die up close and personal from COPD - it was gruesome - and he told me COVID makes COPD look like an easy death.
> 
> Ah, but on the other hand, these "ME, ME, ME" types are so hardheaded, even watching somebody die that way wouldn't affect them.
> 
> I have three friends so far who have retired rather than be called back to unsafe working conditions. We're all of that age or thereabouts. I could too, and I will if I have to return to an unmanageable and unsafe situation.
> 
> I have zero faith in my country or the federal government, both of which I think are dying.
> 
> "E Pluribus Unum," my foot. It should read "You're On Yer Own!"
> 
> OK, soapbox removed. Yank this if inappropriate. It's how I feel.



I get how you feel. This virus put me in the hospital for a couple weeks with half the time in the ICU. Where I differ with you is that I think the Governors have a DUTY to make a better case for the "lock down." We need to see the same information that they are basing their decisions on.  We the people can figure out solutions if we know what we are up against. The situation is different in southern Illinois than it is in Chicago. One size does NOT fit all. 
My step sister owns a successful hair salon, and she is starving. Her choice is buy food or pay the rent. If she can't pay her rent the landlord will get the contents of her salon, and she will be left with nothing. The bad credit rating will follow her for years. If given the chance she could find a solution that kept her & her customers safe. I was sick and I quarantined myself. I have not seen my new grandson since he was born on 3/18/20. I don't want anyone to go through my ordeal, I don't want my 90 year old father to catch this from me. But I need to get back to work too.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

jswordy said:


> Thoughts on the approach to 70,000 dead... over 10,000 more than in the Vietnam war, and in a matter of weeks, not over 20 years.
> 
> Gotta say, for all those who are protesting about their "rights," this crisis has pretty much made a nice clean line between those who are "all about me" and those who are "all about us." It is real easy to identify who is who.
> 
> I wish these early open, let me do what I want types would spend some time with my ER cardiologist friend in southern Georgia, where it is a complete disaster - a disaster that experts say will become more widespread after we open up. I want Steve to tell them how it feels to watch people die by drowning in their own thick mucous. I got to see my MIL die up close and personal from COPD - it was gruesome - and he told me COVID makes COPD look like an easy death.
> 
> Ah, but on the other hand, these "ME, ME, ME" types are so hardheaded, even watching somebody die that way wouldn't affect them.
> 
> I have three friends so far who have retired rather than be called back to unsafe working conditions. We're all of that age or thereabouts. I could too, and I will if I have to return to an unmanageable and unsafe situation.
> 
> I have zero faith in my country or the federal government, both of which I think are dying.
> 
> "E Pluribus Unum," my foot. It should read "You're On Yer Own!"
> 
> OK, soapbox removed. Yank this if inappropriate. It's how I feel.


One of my nephews is an EMT in Georgia, and he says that the news media are really DOWNPLAYING how bad the situation is there. To me, that is the scariest part of NOT KNOWING! Our government, and the news should be unbiased and "tell us like it is", not tell us what they* think* we should know!


----------



## DizzyIzzy

Chuck E said:


> I get how you feel. This virus put me in the hospital for a couple weeks with half the time in the ICU. Where I differ with you is that I think the Governors have a DUTY to make a better case for the "lock down." We need to see the same information that they are basing their decisions on. We the people can figure out solutions if we know what we are up against. The situation is different in southern Illinois than it is in Chicago. One size does NOT fit all.
> My step sister owns a successful hair salon, and she is starving. Her choice is buy food or pay the rent. If she can't pay her rent the landlord will get the contents of her salon, and she will be left with nothing. The bad credit rating will follow her for years. If given the chance she could find a solution that kept her & her customers safe. I was sick and I quarantined myself. I have not seen my new grandson since he was born on 3/18/20. I don't want anyone to go through my ordeal, I don't want my 90 year old father to catch this from me. But I need to get back to work too.


Sorry to hear about your illness Chuck. Seems like you "missed the bullet", thank God. My boyfriend's daughter just left OSU after spending 3 weeks on a ventilator., and another 2 weeks in ICU without the ventilator. It was touch-and-go for a long time not knowing whether she was going to make it. She is home now, very weak and struggling to walk. This virus is nothing to minimize. In 1918 the Spanish Flu killed 600,000 Americans and lasted ten months coming in three distinct waves. I think we all need to prepare for the long haul. Stay safe, and stay well my friend.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

jswordy said:


> Thoughts on the approach to 70,000 dead... over 10,000 more than in the Vietnam war, and in a matter of weeks, not over 20 years.
> 
> Gotta say, for all those who are protesting about their "rights," this crisis has pretty much made a nice clean line between those who are "all about me" and those who are "all about us." It is real easy to identify who is who.
> 
> I wish these early open, let me do what I want types would spend some time with my ER cardiologist friend in southern Georgia, where it is a complete disaster - a disaster that experts say will become more widespread after we open up. I want Steve to tell them how it feels to watch people die by drowning in their own thick mucous. I got to see my MIL die up close and personal from COPD - it was gruesome - and he told me COVID makes COPD look like an easy death.
> 
> Ah, but on the other hand, these "ME, ME, ME" types are so hardheaded, even watching somebody die that way wouldn't affect them.
> 
> I have three friends so far who have retired rather than be called back to unsafe working conditions. We're all of that age or thereabouts. I could too, and I will if I have to return to an unmanageable and unsafe situation.
> 
> I have zero faith in my country or the federal government, both of which I think are dying.
> 
> "E Pluribus Unum," my foot. It should read "You're On Yer Own!"
> 
> OK, soapbox removed. Yank this if inappropriate. It's how I feel.


*JS.......couldn't agree with you more!!*


----------



## ibglowin

They sound PDG for a bunch of old geezers! (like me!)



Boatboy24 said:


>


----------



## sour_grapes

jswordy said:


> NY Post coins my new favorite word: Covidiot.



Another good one is: "Branch Covidian."


----------



## GreginND

sour_grapes said:


> Another good one is: "Branch Covidian."



My favorite, so far.


----------



## Kraffty

Me too except..... wasn't NOT LEAVING their home the reason for their demise?
But absolutely for the stupidity.
Mike


----------



## Doug’s wines

@DizzyIzzy I'm not sure where in Georgia your nephew is, but in the Atlanta area where I live, things seem better than where I work (Santa Clara, California)...

The statistics also don’t really seem to support that the situation is “BAD” in Georgia. 









Georgia Coronavirus Map and Case Count


See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in Georgia.



www.nytimes.com





Normally I would ignore your post, but I keep hearing from people who don’t live in Georgia, how bad things are here which couldn’t be further from the truth at least in the Atlanta metro area which is the bulk of the Georgia population (60%). Everyone should carefully consider their own personal risk as certain conditions and age groups are much more susceptible to this disease, and definitely an “invisible disease” creates a tremendous fear effect, however I’ve heard numerous misstatements about “the situation in Georgia” which I would caution from my point of view as a Ga resident sound a lot like fear mongering. Time will tell, but imo it’s too soon to see any real impact of our state reopening as we are barely past the early incubation stage of the earliest possible new cases.


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> They sound PDG for a bunch of old geezers! (like me!)



Yeah, I kept thinking that this sounded better than my memories of the original!


----------



## ibglowin

Auto-Tune! 

It wasn't around in the 70's!



sour_grapes said:


> Yeah, I kept thinking that this sounded better than my memories of the original!


----------



## ceeaton

Jim (@Boatboy24), thank you so much for posting that, one of my favorite songs from my past. Instantly improved my mood! I was dancing in the rain (neighbors probably think I'm nuts, which I am).

I just had to file for unemployment benefits today, hours cut (2 billable hours so far this week). Fortunately the first time in my lifetime. That was a hard pill to swallow, I was brought up to support myself and family and not depend on anyone to support me (other than my parents when I was growing up). Oh lights just went out, maybe I shouldn't be typing this....or maybe He's making it so I can't go make that pizza dough in the mixer right now. Kinda gives you a new perspective when it affects you personally. 

So slightly depressed and feeling sorry about myself, what do I do? Called Mom. Had an hour conversation and got to share how wonderful of a parent she was. I get my upbeat attitude (most times) and love of God from her. Remember it is Mothers Day on Sunday, call your mom if she is still around. This pandemic is really hard and cruel on our older popuation. Please pray for them if you are religious at all. 

Watched earlier today and saw my Son interact with his diabetic dietician (virtual visit). He's so smart and knows his insulin pump almost better than the dietician who works with literally thousands of kids. I think my wife and I don't give each other enough credit for our four kids upbringing. Stop beating yourself to death parents, life will do that all by itself.

What to get from my ranting? If you feel down and need help, just reach out to someone. It is cliche to say we are all in this together, but we are and we will get through this with the help of each other. If you have a neighbor in need, just help, you don't have to fix all their problems, but just let them know you care and maybe fix a small one.

I hope all are well, I can't imagine losing a loved one and having to stay six feet away from each other in a mask to celebrate their life. Please, if you are so inclined, to pray for those in need.


----------



## Kraffty

I think you speak for many of us right now Craig. Sent you a PM.
Mike


----------



## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> I think you speak for many of us right now Craig. Sent you a PM.
> Mike



You are absolutely right, Mike. 

Craig: sorry to hear your news, but your attitude is great - that will go a long way to helping you get through and perhaps even coming out better than you went in. Your post raised my spirits, so thank you. And I'm glad my little bit of shared music helped you, even if only for a few moments.


----------



## ceeaton

Thank you guys and thanks for the PM's. What I though was going to be the worse day in recent memory turned out to be the best since I married my wife 2??? ut oh, I'm in trouble...hmmm 1997...2020...May 17....almost 23 years ago in a week and a half. Just wish we could go out to dinner....

We can't control about 90% of what happens to us, but we control our attitude. Amazing what a positive one can do to turn a crappy day into a great one.

Thank you guys again for caring so much!


----------



## 1d10t

I did a curbside pickup at big box hardware store. It was very busy. Way to many people couldn't be bothered to wear masks. One group that looked like a father and his two late teen/early twenty kids were so scroungy and dirty I would have avoided them pre-COVID. Of course, no masks. It wouldn't bother me as much if I could get certified N95's for my own use. I'm OK in a group where everyone is wearing what amounts to home made sneeze guards as long as there is some distancing. I have no idea what it was like in the store but there was traffic jams at the door. No traffic control at all. This is a few miles north of the county that led Ohio in deaths until the bigger counties and counties with prisons decided to catch up.


----------



## ZebraB

I also visited a curb side big box hardware store yesterday. I witness the same event. No masks and lots of people with no limits buying non essential stuff. After 25 minutes of waiting for curbside and trying to call to get a status with no avail, we bailed. Just wasn't worth it.


----------



## ceeaton

Much better day today, amazing what a good nights sleep does for your spirits. Had as full a day of work as I'm allowed pretty much, after I got the internet stable enough to connect to the VPN and work. We had an outage (two poles down, two different accidents) and sometimes the substation that controls my phone and DSL take a while to get back to normal), almost had to call the engineer for Verizon I call in Pittsburgh to have techs check it out. Had gotten his number after the backup batteries went dead in the substation a few years back and they were slow in replacing them.

Went to the grocery store and they had everything on my list except anchovies, didn't know there was a run on those. They even had bread flour and big packs of paper towels, miracles never cease to happen. Got a 7+ lb bone-in pork butt. Looking at the forecast it looks like a Sunday cook. I love using the leftovers to make up some pulled pork spicy nachos. The gift that keeps giving, especially the next morning. Just wish people could follow the arrows they have plastered down on the floor. There is usually one who can't follow simple directions (they even have one way signs), but there were about six of them (and only 25 or so people in the store). Wonder what kind of drivers they are?

Just a beautiful Spring day here, wind is starting up a bit. Guess I have to enjoy it before our rainy Friday and high wind Saturday.

Hope you'all are doing well today!


----------



## DizzyIzzy

Doug’s wines said:


> @DizzyIzzy I'm not sure where in Georgia your nephew is, but in the Atlanta area where I live, things seem better than where I work (Santa Clara, California)...
> 
> The statistics also don’t really seem to support that the situation is “BAD” in Georgia.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Georgia Coronavirus Map and Case Count
> 
> 
> See the latest charts and maps of coronavirus cases, deaths, hospitalizations and vaccinations in Georgia.
> 
> 
> 
> www.nytimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Normally I would ignore your post, but I keep hearing from people who don’t live in Georgia, how bad things are here which couldn’t be further from the truth at least in the Atlanta metro area which is the bulk of the Georgia population (60%). Everyone should carefully consider their own personal risk as certain conditions and age groups are much more susceptible to this disease, and definitely an “invisible disease” creates a tremendous fear effect, however I’ve heard numerous misstatements about “the situation in Georgia” which I would caution from my point of view as a Ga resident sound a lot like fear mongering. Time will tell, but imo it’s too soon to see any real impact of our state reopening as we are barely past the early incubation stage of the earliest possible new cases.


I will call my nephew and ask him just where in Georgia he is working as an EMT. I'll get back to you. You shouldn't take my post personally, I am just conveying what an EMT who is "on-the-ground" in Georgia is reporting back to his family in Ohio and Maine. He has no reason to exaggerate or lie about the dangers he faces everyday in trying to protect the citizens of Georgia.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

ceeaton said:


> Jim (@Boatboy24), thank you so much for posting that, one of my favorite songs from my past. Instantly improved my mood! I was dancing in the rain (neighbors probably think I'm nuts, which I am).
> 
> I just had to file for unemployment benefits today, hours cut (2 billable hours so far this week). Fortunately the first time in my lifetime. That was a hard pill to swallow, I was brought up to support myself and family and not depend on anyone to support me (other than my parents when I was growing up). Oh lights just went out, maybe I shouldn't be typing this....or maybe He's making it so I can't go make that pizza dough in the mixer right now. Kinda gives you a new perspective when it affects you personally.
> 
> So slightly depressed and feeling sorry about myself, what do I do? Called Mom. Had an hour conversation and got to share how wonderful of a parent she was. I get my upbeat attitude (most times) and love of God from her. Remember it is Mothers Day on Sunday, call your mom if she is still around. This pandemic is really hard and cruel on our older popuation. Please pray for them if you are religious at all.
> 
> Watched earlier today and saw my Son interact with his diabetic dietician (virtual visit). He's so smart and knows his insulin pump almost better than the dietician who works with literally thousands of kids. I think my wife and I don't give each other enough credit for our four kids upbringing. Stop beating yourself to death parents, life will do that all by itself.
> 
> What to get from my ranting? If you feel down and need help, just reach out to someone. It is cliche to say we are all in this together, but we are and we will get through this with the help of each other. If you have a neighbor in need, just help, you don't have to fix all their problems, but just let them know you care and maybe fix a small one.
> 
> I hope all are well, I can't imagine losing a loved one and having to stay six feet away from each other in a mask to celebrate their life. Please, if you are so inclined, to pray for those in need.


ceeaton....I feel your pain on the need for unemployment. Thank God it's there for those who are in need., and I heard the president has authorized increased benefits? You have nothing to blame yourself for......this virus can be the undoing of so many of us. Our country, and our citizens, have seen hard times before, and we *WILL* survive! God bless you and your family.............*..stay strong, and make wine.*


----------



## joeswine

And this to shall pass..my fine Vino friends,alone with the ignorance and the stupidity of others.
I've learned to enjoy my home as I venture out on my service calls
I've appreciate my wife more and the 41years we've been together , through it all.
I miss the little things and found out that the big things really weren't important after all and they will keep.
Take a breath and just relax


----------



## sour_grapes

DizzyIzzy said:


> ceeaton....I feel your pain on the need for unemployment. Thank God it's there for those who are in need., and I heard the president has authorized increased benefits?



I apologize, Dizzy. I believe in an earlier post, I made a response that assumed you were in the US. I should have known better, since this is a global forum. Where are you located?


----------



## ibglowin

IP is saying KY (USA)



sour_grapes said:


> Where are you located?


----------



## Boatboy24

Hoping this trend continues. The 6-7th numbers are identical because Virginia had some sort of "glitch" and didn't report on the 6th, and simply reported a revised total on the 7th. I just split that down the middle for those two days. Our 7 day moving average appears to have plateaued, despite testing having tripled in the last two weeks. We are set to begin a phased reopening next Friday, and phase 1 is pretty minimal.


----------



## ceeaton

I didn't have much work today, but boy a few us are having a good laugh! Our paychecks are mostly direct deposit so I had my boss mail it to me when he went in the other day. The reason I had him do this is because it was a rather large sum in my direct deposit. When I got the check I realized why it was so large, they credited me with 144.5 hours, when it should be 80 (at a reduced rate for the 8 hours we miss every week). I had turned in a weeks vacation for pay, which they are nice enough to do at the beginning of May and June. But the 40 was on a separate line. I thought they may have cashed all my vacation in at a much reduced rate. But no, they gave me 40 at regular rate (when I earned it last year). Now how do you get 144.5 when it should be 80? Can't be a typo. So I scanned and emailed the check to our payroll manager and the HR manager. Still waiting to see who they blame it on. I'll owe back $1000+ dollars, but the laughs messaging back and forth between a few of us is worth sending it back.

Have a great Fryday! (Not a typo, I work for a company called Fry)


----------



## Boatboy24

Maybe they'll let you keep it. You know, just for being honest.


----------



## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> Maybe they'll let you keep it. You know, just for being honest.


Nice thought. When I brought up the issue with the payroll manager, he said you can't apply for UC benefits because you are salary. Here he never heard they converted a bunch of us from salary to hourly so they could slash our hours. Last four weeks they have been posting us as 80 hours and reducing our multiplier used to figure out the salary (little strange in my mind). Since they already sent in my 401K deduction, they can't just let me send them a check to reimburse the extra funds I received. Sounds like they will deduct the difference from my next...4 or 5 paychecks. I will be getting $0 dollars until I bill enough hours to make up the difference. Oh well. The best is the HR manager hasn't come up with the numbers yet I have to change for my initial claim. Fortunately I know the payroll manager from another printing company and she was gracious enough to set up a time tomorrow to talk with me to try and help me get my numbers in order enough to get my initial claim to go through.


----------



## joeswine

Trials and tribulations,of the work place ever changing, always evolving,getting more politicly correct.and can't think there way out of a paper bag. No offence mind you just a thought
.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

sour_grapes said:


> I apologize, Dizzy. I believe in an earlier post, I made a response that assumed you were in the US. I should have known better, since this is a global forum. Where are you located?


I live in central Ohio, about 1 hr. 15 min. NE of Columbus.


----------



## sour_grapes

DizzyIzzy said:


> I live in central Ohio, about 1 hr. 15 min. NE of Columbus.



Oh, now I need to apologize again! Sorry about that, your comments above made it sound like you were not from the US. Sorry for my confusion.


----------



## GreginND

So, it looks like the US is plodding along only very very slowly showing a downward trend in new cases and new deaths. My guess is that this will continue or even start to rise again as many places in the US "open up".


----------



## Chuck E

GreginND said:


> So, it looks like the US is plodding along only very very slowly showing a downward trend in new cases and new deaths. My guess is that this will continue or even start to rise again as many places in the US "open up".



When the goal was to "Flatten the Curve," in order to keep hospitals and staffs from becoming overwhelmed; that never meant that the death toll would be smaller. It only meant it would last longer into the future. I think that is what we are are seeing in the urban population centers. If you take NY & NJ out of the stats, the US looks like it is doing well compared with other countries. We have several "hot spots" that skew our numbers.


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> When the goal was to "Flatten the Curve," in order to keep hospitals and staffs from becoming overwhelmed; that never meant that the death toll would be smaller. It only meant it would last longer into the future. I think that is what we are are seeing in the urban population centers. *If you take NY & NJ out of the stats, the US looks like it is doing well compared with other countries. We have several "hot spots" that skew our numbers.*



I more or less agree with most of your post. However, the underlined/bolded part doesn't make sense, IMHO. We are discussing a highly contagious disease with no known treatment. We are not talking about Type 2 diabetes or something. "Hot spots" are how Covid rolls. Clusters don't skew the numbers, they ARE the numbers. So you want to take out the clusters, and then compare US data to other countries where you DON'T exclude their clusters? 

I would also quibble that "flatten the curve" meant that the _case numbers_ (not deaths) would be similar, but just spread out more in time. My understanding was that we also had reason to hope for fewer _deaths_, because it is harder to survive while being treated by an overwhelmed health system. But I acknowledge that this is a second-order effect.


----------



## GreginND

Actually, NY and NJ have largely declined and their curves have gone way down. If you take them out, the rest of the country shows a continued increase.


----------



## ceeaton

PA is starting to flatten but still going up. They extended our stay at home orders until June 4th, I could see that getting extended. I like it because I'm really digging this work at home thing, even though the pay is nauseating. It's worth the freedom, getting so much done around the house. Now if our two months of constant wind would break, I'd get even more done.

According to weather underground, the county I live in has had 159 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. We are sandwiched on the north, west and east by counties with higher populations and way more cases. Other than the community I live in, most are pretty spaced out here, probably not as much as ND, but better than a metropolitan area like Phila or Pittsburgh.


----------



## Chuck E

sour_grapes said:


> I more or less agree with most of your post. However, the underlined/bolded part doesn't make sense, IMHO. We are discussing a highly contagious disease with no known treatment. We are not talking about Type 2 diabetes or something. "Hot spots" are how Covid rolls. Clusters don't skew the numbers, they ARE the numbers. So you want to take out the clusters, and then compare US data to other countries where you DON'T exclude their clusters?
> 
> I would also quibble that "flatten the curve" meant that the _case numbers_ (not deaths) would be similar, but just spread out more in time. My understanding was that we also had reason to hope for fewer _deaths_, because it is harder to survive while being treated by an overwhelmed health system. But I acknowledge that this is a second-order effect.



I am suggesting that the methodology for combatting the virus is much different between rural and urban zones. One size solution definitely does not fit all. I think NYC did their at risk citizens a gross disservice. More protections could have been afforded to seniors and persons with co-morbidities.


----------



## mainshipfred

I'm sure social distancing has helped tremendously as did the stay at home orders and shut downs. However the increase in cases is somewhat relative to the number of tests given which is also increasing. There are several statistics that I have not been able to find.
1. The number of people tested vs. the number of positive cases. Positive cases should be higher since most are tested with symptoms.
2. The number of people that test positive and show little, mild or no symptoms and have recovered.
3. Perhaps along with #2 the number of people that had/have to be hospitalized.
4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> I'm sure social distancing has helped tremendously as did the stay at home orders and shut downs. However the increase in cases is somewhat relative to the number of tests given which is also increasing. There are several statistics that I have not been able to find.
> 1. The number of people tested vs. the number of positive cases. Positive cases should be higher since most are tested with symptoms.
> 2. The number of people that test positive and show little, mild or no symptoms and have recovered.
> 3. Perhaps along with #2 the number of people that had/have to be hospitalized.
> 4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.



Some of the answers may be here: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/

As you noted, positive cases are higher (in VA, at least) and that is due to increased testing. We had our 2nd highest number of new daily cases yesterday - at nearly 1,000. But we also had our highest number of tests, at nearly 10k - we were testing an average of 2k/day just two or 3 weeks ago. A lot of the figures on the VDH page are 'inception to date', but I've been keeping a spreadsheet and updating daily so I can calculate some of the 'per day' numbers.


----------



## mainshipfred

Thanks, that takes care of 1 and 3 in Virginia, but not 2 and especially 4.


----------



## ibglowin

The 4 Corners region is still a huge hot spot for the State. The rest of NM has peaked and is on the decline. We have not relaxed anything still. Down South in Roswell, NM Hobby Lobby tried to open up and try their hand at defying the Governor's order on essential businesses. They didn't even last one day and the NMSP arrived and shut them down immediately. Roswell appears to still be in NM and not TX which has allowed Hobby Lobby to reopen going on 2 weeks ago now.


----------



## sour_grapes

mainshipfred said:


> 4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.



Your phrasing of the "I can almost guarantee" sentence is ambiguous. I cannot tell if you are saying that you predict that non-Covid deaths in 2020 will be higher or lower than in previous years.

Nonetheless, this study should interest you, as it addresses your question. They found much higher rates of deaths from all causes in 2020 than in previous years, and higher rates attributed to pneumonia in particular.

Here is a popular account of the study: The US experienced 15,400 'excess deaths' from March to April 4 compared with last year, suggesting coronavirus death toll is higher than known


> *The US experienced 15,400 'excess deaths' from March to April 4 compared with last year, suggesting coronavirus death toll is higher than known*




And here is the study itself: Estimating the early death toll of COVID-19 in the United States


> Results There were notable increases in the rate of death due to P&I in February and March 2020. In a number of states, these deaths pre-dated increases in COVID-19 testing rates and were not counted in official records as related to COVID-19.


----------



## Chuck E

mainshipfred said:


> I'm sure social distancing has helped tremendously as did the stay at home orders and shut downs. However the increase in cases is somewhat relative to the number of tests given which is also increasing. There are several statistics that I have not been able to find.
> 1. The number of people tested vs. the number of positive cases. Positive cases should be higher since most are tested with symptoms.
> 2. The number of people that test positive and show little, mild or no symptoms and have recovered.
> 3. Perhaps along with #2 the number of people that had/have to be hospitalized.
> 4. The average number of people that have historically died monthly or annually prior to the pandemic from Pneumonia, heart attack, stroke, COPD, the flu or the like compared to the number of deaths recorded for these conditions during the same average time period. I can almost guarantee the number of historical deaths are going to be far lower.



Try this web site: Political Calculations 

On the entry for May 6th, he has graphs for every state. The only number that many states are not reporting are the numbers of patients who have recovered.


----------



## Chuck E

ibglowin said:


> The 4 Corners region is still a huge hot spot for the State. The rest of NM has peaked and is on the decline. We have not relaxed anything still. Down South in Roswell, NM Hobby Lobby tried to open up and try their hand at defying the Governor's order on essential businesses. They didn't even last one day and the NMSP arrived and shut them down immediately. Roswell appears to still be in NM and not TX which has allowed Hobby Lobby to reopen going on 2 weeks ago now.



View attachment 61072


Does the NW corner have the Navajo Nation in it?


----------



## ibglowin

Yes.
The Navajo Nation encompasses 4 States so some articles reference the numbers for the entire Nation and some will include only that portion of the State that you are reading about.



Chuck E said:


> Does the NW corner have the Navajo Nation in it?


----------



## ibglowin

*If the Navajo Nation were a state, it would have the highest rate of coronavirus cases per capita after New York. At least 100 people have died from the virus and 3,122 people have tested positive.*










Coronavirus Infections Continue To Rise On Navajo Nation


At least 100 people on the Navajo Nation have died from the virus and 3,122 people have tested positive. Several factors, including lack of running water, make the situation there difficult.




www.npr.org


----------



## Boatboy24

Just back from Wegman's and no shortage of meat, as has been noted by some others. In fact, they were stocked to just about capacity and two people were topping up the pork section with baby backs and butts. The store was quieter than it has been in the last several weeks (I've usually been going on Tuesdays around the same time). Still not a single Bounty paper towel to be seen though - pretty sure they've not been in stock since early March. Only Wegman's brand, and only single roll packs.


----------



## ceeaton

Just went to our local Giant and the 10 briskets I saw last time are gone. Beef is very rare so I got a 3 lb chubb of chuck. They had plenty of pork, chicken and lamb. 

On a side note I got my UC PIN today! It took them 2 days (I applied Wednesday they mailed Friday from Charlie Tuna, PA) to process it, I applied 4 business days ago, so the horror stories about waiting a month for your PIN are exaggerated, unless you mess up the application. As with any State form it has it's gray areas, but the hints they list answer all of those.

What a weight off my shoulders!


----------



## Boatboy24

Wow! Did not realize they'd halted wine sales in South Africa. Still illegal to sell domestically, but at least they can fulfill international orders. 









South African Wine's Whiplash Continues—Exports and Bottling Permitted Again


The government lifts its ban on alcohol exports, but continues to forbid domestic sales




www.winespectator.com


----------



## Chuck E

ceeaton said:


> On a side note I got my UC PIN today! It took them 2 days (I applied Wednesday they mailed Friday from Charlie Tuna, PA) to process it, I applied 4 business days ago, so the horror stories about waiting a month for your PIN are exaggerated, unless you mess up the application. As with any State form it has it's gray areas, but the hints they list answer all of those.



What is a UC Pin?


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> What is a UC Pin?



I am not Craig, but I would imagine it is an Unemployment Compensation Personal Identification Number.


----------



## ceeaton

Chuck E said:


> What is a UC Pin?


Ding, ding, ding! Paul is right (see you are very intelligent). You need to use your pin to file the bi-weekly claim to get your benefit check/deposit. You are at their mercy, so I was happy to see it only took two days for them to process it. I think it is all processed programmatically unless you botch up the online application. That's where the wait can come in since there is no one in L & I (Labor and Industry) to manually fix/check etc to process the application.


----------



## ceeaton

Going to our church's leadership meeting tonight. Haven't had one for three months. We will be discussing when we will reopen for onsite services and what precautions we will take. I tend to be at the conservative end of the spectrum so I think we should wait until the Commonwealth of PA lifts the stay at home orders, scheduled now for June 4th. We'll see if that really materializes. Most of our congregation is older than I am (late 50s) so I don't see the need to expose a portion of the at higher risk population to potential exposure. I'm sure there will be many opinions, so this should be an interesting meeting.

Edit; Today is Wednesday, isn't it? Meeting is tomorrow night...time for another beverage!


----------



## Darrell Hawley

Gov Evers of Wisconsin was overruled by the Wis Supreme Court and Wisconsin is now open. Several city mayors have already put the "stay at home" back in. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days.


----------



## Boatboy24

Virginia begins 'Phase 1' of reopening tomorrow - except for Northern Virginia, where most people in the state live. I'm not happy about it, but it makes sense, given the population density, and our proximity to Maryland and DC.


----------



## ibglowin

Darrell Hawley said:


> Should be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days.


----------



## cmason1957

Missouri, except for St. Louis City and County are mostly back open. Restaurants are getting customers, but only allowed to use 25% of their available space, workers are temperature tested every morning and must wear gloves and masks. I am taking a minor change approach to it all, continuing to mostly isolate, which is very easy for me, since I have been an at home worker for a long time, nothing really much changed.


----------



## sour_grapes

Darrell Hawley said:


> Gov Evers of Wisconsin was overruled by the Wis Supreme Court and Wisconsin is now open. Several city mayors have already put the "stay at home" back in. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days.



My wife pointed out that the Wisconsin Supreme Court heard this case by video conference. Should we assume they will now go back to working in person today?


----------



## Darrell Hawley

sour_grapes said:


> My wife pointed out that the Wisconsin Supreme Court heard this case by video conference. Should we assume they will now go back to working in person today?


From what I read this morning, just about all the major cities have put the "stay at home" back in at least until the May 20 or 26. So it just looks like the smaller shops (not malls) can be open now per Gov Evers and all of the rest will wait until at least one of those dates unless extended.


----------



## sour_grapes

Darrell Hawley said:


> From what I read this morning, just about all the major cities have put the "stay at home" back in at least until the May 20 or 26. So it just looks like the smaller shops (not malls) can be open now per Gov Evers and all of the rest will wait until at least one of those dates unless extended.



Good point. I did not think of that. I now see that Dane County's Public Health Officer has ordered a Safer at Home mandate until May 26, so I suppose there will be no in-person Court work.


----------



## joeswine

I was at Home Depot this afternoon and it was full of shoppers.
Checkout was very cool (self) you pushed your cart thought a plastic window the attendant on the other side rang your order the pushed your cart thought another port and their you are done.they accually had to hire people for a self checkout line????
And everyone had masks
Everyone.


----------



## mainshipfred

ibglowin said:


> View attachment 61132



You just may get in trouble for this one.


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> Virginia begins 'Phase 1' of reopening tomorrow - except for Northern Virginia, where most people in the state live. I'm not happy about it, but it makes sense, given the population density, and our proximity to Maryland and DC.



Several if not all wineries in Northern Virginia are petitioning the governor to allow them to open. The requirements are one way in and different way out and the separation is 10' which is no real problem for wineries since they typically have tons of space. I get periodic updates from the owner of the winery we are building. If they are not allowed to open this weekend my wife and I are going to make a trip to Charlottesville which will be allowed to open.


----------



## Kraffty

Our daughter lives in Wisconsin and her husband was posting on facebook about their towns bars being full of unmasked patrons celebrating the court overturning the stay at home orders. They also plan to sit back and watch the natural selection process at work.
Mike


----------



## GreginND

We opened on May 1. This is the result . . . Cass County has 25% of the state's population.


----------



## ibglowin

Looks like you only took 11 days to blow up......... 



GreginND said:


> We opened on May 1. This is the result . . . Cass County has 25% of the state's population.


----------



## sour_grapes

It's almost like it took roughly one incubation period to manifest itself! Shocking!


----------



## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> Our daughter lives in Wisconsin and her husband was posting on facebook about their towns bars being full of unmasked patrons celebrating the court overturning the stay at home orders. They also plan to sit back and watch the natural selection process at work.
> Mike



Now I get to return the invitation: If you ever come to visit her, we'd be delighted to host you in Milwaukee!


----------



## Boatboy24

GreginND said:


> We opened on May 1. This is the result . . . Cass County has 25% of the state's population.
> 
> View attachment 61147




That's an enormous spike, and cause for concern. How does it compare to the number of tests administered though?


----------



## Kraffty

Thanks Paul, she's in Eau Clair and we're probably heading that way next summer. We'd planned for july this year but just doesn't look like that's in the cards now. We've been on the prowl for a newer used, west coast car to give to them but it may have to wait for a bit.
Mike


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Several if not all wineries in Northern Virginia are petitioning the governor to allow them to open. The requirements are one way in and different way out and the separation is 10' which is no real problem for wineries since they typically have tons of space. I get periodic updates from the owner of the winery we are building. If they are not allowed to open this weekend my wife and I are going to make a trip to Charlottesville which will be allowed to open.



Hey @mainshipfred . Just ran across this and most of it is common sense, or commonly known, but figured I'd pass along.









What to know before heading out to Virginia wineries during Phase 1 - WTOP News


Before you take a scenic drive out to wine country when Virginia enters the first phase of the coronavirus reopening plan, here’s what you need to know.




wtop.com


----------



## vineyarddog

mainshipfred said:


> Several if not all wineries in Northern Virginia are petitioning the governor to allow them to open. The requirements are one way in and different way out and the separation is 10' which is no real problem for wineries since they typically have tons of space. I get periodic updates from the owner of the winery we are building. If they are not allowed to open this weekend my wife and I are going to make a trip to Charlottesville which will be allowed to open.



My wife and I love Charlottesville. We drive down there a few times a year. It looks like a lot of the wineries are opening up for outdoor seating.


----------



## David Clark

I'm in Alabama where Fox News dictates state policy so out of 4.9 million 144k have been tested. Of those 11k are positive, with 473 deaths. That means 1 in 13 in Alabama likely are or have been infected, or about 375k just in Alabama if all here were tested. We have no way of knowing who is infected and who to stay away from so you should stay away from everyone. I went to Lowes last week and now I will buy online and have them bring it to the car. The only people there with mask were the employees, The shoppers could care less who they infected. It's the Old West here, you protect yourself because most here where I am honestly think it's all a hoax and the common flu is worse.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Darrell Hawley said:


> Gov Evers of Wisconsin was overruled by the Wis Supreme Court and Wisconsin is now open. Several city mayors have already put the "stay at home" back in. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days.


You are too anxious. Give it two to three weeks for cases to show up. 
Wisconsin is generously being a model of what the rest of the country will experience after Memorial Day.


----------



## GreginND

Boatboy24 said:


> That's an enormous spike, and cause for concern. How does it compare to the number of tests administered though?



Statewide testing is about 3.8% positive, in Fargo/Cass County it is 15.5% positive.


----------



## Rice_Guy

I think your number is a bit high. Based on the rate meat plants with 1 to 2 K workers are going down I’d guess 1/1000.


David Clark said:


> I'm in Alabama where Fox News dictates state policy so out of 4.9 million 144k have been tested. Of those 11k are positive, with 473 deaths. That means 1 in 13 in Alabama likely are or have been infected, or about 375k just in Alabama if all here were tested. We have no way of knowing who is infected and who to stay away from so you should stay away from everyone. I went to Lowes last week and now I will buy online and have them bring it to the car. The only people there with mask were the employees, The shoppers could care less who they infected. It's the Old West here, you protect yourself because most here where I am honestly think it's all a hoax and the common flu is worse.


Hate to say it but the brother at GB used to say hoax and today says infringement of constitutional rights.


----------



## ZebraB

I really question the 6' feet rule of thumb. I was walking outside to our mailbox yesterday and our neighbor's are having some construction done (ok in phase 1 in WA). The worker was smoking a cigarette and I was smelling the smoke and I was at least 12' away. Wonder what else I could be breathing in? (It wasn't a windy day either)


----------



## 1d10t

David Clark said:


> It's the Old West here, you protect yourself because most here where I am honestly think it's all a hoax and the common flu is worse.



I think it's more like Russian Roulette attitude. Even if they get it THEY won't be the ones that have serious symptoms and they can swagger around blustering about how brave and cavalier they were. I remember one doctor treating a gun shot wound patient that was sure he was going to die. His reasoning was that people in the movies can take several bullets and keep on going. Since his hurt like hell, it must be a fatal wound. I had a splinter the other day that was painful enough.


----------



## sour_grapes

1d10t said:


> I remember one doctor treating a gun shot wound patient that was sure he was going to die. His reasoning was that people in the movies can take several bullets and keep on going. Since his hurt like hell, it must be a fatal wound.



To be fair, if I were in a hospital being treated for a gunshot wound, the possibility of my shuffling off this mortal coil would likely be high on my list of concerns, too!


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> Hey @mainshipfred . Just ran across this and most of it is common sense, or commonly known, but figured I'd pass along.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What to know before heading out to Virginia wineries during Phase 1 - WTOP News
> 
> 
> Before you take a scenic drive out to wine country when Virginia enters the first phase of the coronavirus reopening plan, here’s what you need to know.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wtop.com



I made reservations for Vint Hill which is not on the list but open. We have a pick up for Effingham which they are going to bring to Vint Hill (same Owners and we belong to both) They are doing 2 sessions, the first is 12:45 to 3:00 and the second which we signed up for is 3:45 to 5:30. Was told they sanitize in between. The general public is required to purchase a $50.00 gift certificate which you can use immediately but club members are exempt. We normally spend more than that anyway. We could have also gone to Pearmund which is nice because you are in the middle of their vineyard but Vint Hill plays some really good old music.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> I made reservations for Vint Hill which is not on the list but open. We have a pick up for Effingham which they are going to bring to Vint Hill (same Owners and we belong to both) They are doing 2 sessions, the first is 12:45 to 3:00 and the second which we signed up for is 3:45 to 5:30. Was told they sanitize in between. The general public is required to purchase a $50.00 gift certificate which you can use immediately but club members are exempt. We normally spend more than that anyway. We could have also gone to Pearmund which is nice because you are in the middle of their vineyard but Vint Hill plays some really good old music.



Vint Hill is in Prince William County, right? I thought PW wasn't opening.


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> Vint Hill is in Prince William County, right? I thought PW wasn't opening.


 
It actually is in Faquier as well


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> It actually is in Faquier as well



I'm sure Old Bust Head Brewing (next door) will be very busy.


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> I'm sure Old Bust Head Brewing (next door) will be very busy.



Not sure where the county line is but Bust Head is North of Vint Hill by a parking lot.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Not sure where the county line is but Bust Head is North of Vint Hill by a parking lot.



If VH is Faquier, then I'm pretty sure OBH is too. Been a while since we've been over there - just a few miles from our old house.


----------



## Rice_Guy

I am curious how the country survived Mother’s Day.

I observe that we are having a spike in cases 5 days after Mother’s Day, the spike is showing up in counties state wide, however it isn’t as bad as a spike in cases when it starts transmitting in two meat plants.
It will be interesting to see if there is a state wide spike about May 20th which follows after the state Supreme Court struck down safer at home rules, and TV showed packed bars.
EDIT; _on Saturday the state reached a new record, doesn’t seem to be related to number of tests since the percent of positives is also spiking up._
OOPs had grand kids first time in nine weeks
, ,, but it was a good Mother’s Day, miss the kids!


----------



## Rice_Guy

You have a good point


ZebraB said:


> I really question the 6' feet rule of thumb. I was walking outside to our mailbox yesterday and our neighbor's are having some construction done (ok in phase 1 in WA). The worker was smoking a cigarette and I was smelling the smoke and I was at least 12' away. Wonder what else I could be breathing in? (It wasn't a windy day either)



I find myself wishing that there was background human behavior information, ex.
the risk in a meat plant with 1000 buddies is—— 1/5
the risk in choir practice with 60 buddies is —— 1/4
the risk in Aldies (food store) with 40 shoppers is — 1/ *?*
the risk in Walmart with a store limit of 450 shoppers is — 1/ _*?*_
the risk in a grade school with 24 kids is ——— 1/ *?*
the risk in a college dorm with 100 kids is —— 1/ *?*
etc etc

To your observation about cigarette smoke, the particle size of smoke is supposed to be significantly smaller than a droplet from sneezing therefore sneezing was calculated to fall to the ground within 2 meters. If we take a smaller molecule like oxygen it has been calculated that everyone alive is breathing a few oxygen molecules that Alexander the Great or Jesus once breathed.


----------



## Boatboy24

I survived another weekly shopping trip to Wegman's today. Also made a quick Costco run to check meat supplies and look for paper towels. Again, Costco was relatively quiet and the meat department was well stocked. The gentleman walking in ahead of me was politely reminded he needed a mask to enter the store, after which he pulled one out of his pocket and put it on. Aside from that little slow-down, no wait to get in the store. Noted as missing: Brisket, and Prime NY Strip. Plenty of everything else though. I got a pack of Choice Filets and a large pack of boneless, skinless chicken breasts. BSBs were $2.89/lb. I usually buy them at Wegman's for $1.99/lb, but grabbed the Costco ones since I wasn't sure if Wegman's would have them. Also missing: paper towels. I did see a few people in the store with some in their carts, so I must've just gotten there a little late. No wait getting to the head of the line, and subsequently to the self checkout - someone was just leaving as I walked up. 

Next, on to Wegman's for the 'regular' weekly shopping. Meat department was well stocked. Again, they had full Angus packers at $5.99/lb. Plenty of everything else, including the $1.99 BSBs. I noted a very good supply of baby backs and spares. Spares were $4.59/lb, which is up from what I think is normally $3.49 there. Baby backs were $3.79 - I think that's the usual price there. Everything else in the store was available and in stock from milk to produce to chips. Except for paper towels that is. 

In short, pretty easy trips today. Crowd size was very manageable. Meat was in good supply, albeit a little more expensive than normal for some things. Paper towels are gold, pure gold, and are as easy to find as leprechauns.


----------



## Kraffty

Glad to hear that Jim, our meat supplies seem just fine too, maybe some lessons learned from the toilet paper shortages. We have paper goods, limited choices and amounts but plenty overall. Our main shortages seem to be mostly kitchen cleaners and sanitizers. Other than that the amount people are buying seems to be much smaller quantities but my main complaint is the lack of people wearing masks. At Walmart yesterday my rough guess would be about 75 to 80 percent NOT wearing them. 

Still expecting to see a rise or blow up in cases in the next couple of weeks but truly hoping I'm wrong.
Mike


----------



## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> Paper towels are gold, pure gold, and are as easy to find as leprechauns.


If you really need some paper towels, I can UPS you some. I seriously can get them most times at the Weis Mkt. Now the Giant is a different story, they must have found a way to eat them or something.


----------



## Ajmassa

anyone been out golfing at all? They have restrictions/group limits still or they back to 4somes?


----------



## BernardSmith

Boatboy24 said:


> No wait getting to the head of the line, and subsequently to the self checkout - someone was just leaving as I walked up.



Interesting and it may just be that you never mentioned it but at our local supermarket there are staff at the self checkout sanitizing the station between customers so you are not touching the screen or the credit card reader (if you are using a debit card it asks for your password) and your groceries are not on an uncleaned deck where someone may have shed viral material.


----------



## ceeaton

Ajmassa said:


> anyone been out golfing at all? They have restrictions/group limits still or they back to 4somes?


I passed a golf course the other day, looked like 4somes to me, but maybe they were being bad (no one would possibly break the rules, thinking mulligans here).


----------



## Ajmassa

ceeaton said:


> I passed a golf course the other day, looked like 4somes to me, but maybe they were being bad (no one would possibly break the rules, thinking mulligans here).


I’ll be headed downashore this weekend. The beaches are essentially fully opened. Supposed to be social distancing, but households obviously do not have to keep distance. Which means everyone will be in their groups as they would normally. And I don’t see how it can be enforced anyway. 
The only difference will be 1 lifeguard per stand instead of 2.

unfortunately (or fortunately?) it’s supposed to rain Friday & Saturday. Sunday should be a madhouse though.


----------



## ceeaton

Ajmassa said:


> unfortunately (or fortunately?) it’s supposed to rain Friday & Saturday. Sunday should be a madhouse though.


Yeah, but they change the forecast about every three hours. It was supposed to be raining here now according to last Saturdays forecast. Hope you guys have fun!


----------



## mainshipfred

Ajmassa said:


> anyone been out golfing at all? They have restrictions/group limits still or they back to 4somes?



Around here 4somes are allowed the rule is 2 bags on a cart but only one person in the cart and two carts per 4some. The one person per cart is kind of nice if you are the walker, kind of like having a caddy.


----------



## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> At Walmart yesterday my rough guess would be about 75 to 80 percent NOT wearing them.



I was surprised when I went to Micro Center on Saturday - they were offering masks and gloves to those that didn't have them. Wegman's is now requiring their employees to wear them and they've actually had them in stock and for sale a couple times in the last week, from what I've heard. I haven't been to Giant, Target, or Walmart in quite a while, so not sure if they are any different, but I'd say 80% or more of the customers at Wegman's were wearing masks today.


----------



## joeswine

I've noticed Sam's club is loaded with things again yet the meat section is light, Perdue products are bulk packaged and traffic is gaining volume.
Older people who are the biggest part of my business Nate scared to death as well as noted to death.
HVAC work is picking up for now and the weather is good and mid 60,s no good .
Oh well my wine making for others has not stopped.


----------



## Boatboy24

BernardSmith said:


> Interesting and it may just be that you never mentioned it but at our local supermarket there are staff at the self checkout sanitizing the station between customers so you are not touching the screen or the credit card reader (if you are using a debit card it asks for your password) and your groceries are not on an uncleaned deck where someone may have shed viral material.



Same at my Wegman's, but not the case at Costco - you're on your own.  I keep a bottle of hand sanitizer in the driver side door of the car. As soon as I open that door my hands (and the keys they just touched) get hit before I even get in.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Around here 4somes are allowed the rule is 2 bags on a cart but only one person in the cart and two carts per 4some. The one person per cart is kind of nice if you are the walker, kind of like having a caddy.



How'd it go at the wineries over the weekend?


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> How'd it go at the wineries over the weekend?



Couldn't be any safer. Everything was done outside. They asked but didn't demand you wear a mask when getting your wine, bottle purchases only. We sat at a picnic table by ourselves and there about 12 other tables occupied. We're able to talk to the others nearby so there was some nice, long awaited socializing at a distance.


----------



## ibglowin

Things are not getting better for the Navajo Nation.









Navajo Nation leads the nation in COVID-19 cases per capita


According to the data, the Navajo Nation has 2,304 cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people. In comparison, New York has a rate of 1,806 per 100,000.




www.kob.com


----------



## sour_grapes

mainshipfred said:


> Couldn't be any safer. ... They asked but didn't demand you wear a mask when getting your wine,



So it COULD HAVE been safer?


----------



## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> So it COULD HAVE been safer?



Apparently, it couldn't have been.


----------



## mainshipfred

sour_grapes said:


> So it COULD HAVE been safer?



LOL! But everyone did wear their masks.


----------



## joeswine

Things haven't been good for the American Indians, since we came to this Continent ( but that's another subject).
I've been installing UV light systems , they've been around for quite a while cleanrooms, operating rooms and homes. They help.


----------



## Boatboy24

joeswine said:


> I've been installing UV light systems , they've been around for quite a while cleanrooms, operating rooms and homes. They help.



Actually looked into it when we had our winter service. Not terribly expensive, but we have two units so we'd have to double up.


----------



## ceeaton

Got my first UC payment, only about 7 hours later than my work would have deposited my paycheck, if I got paid anything, LOL.


----------



## joeswine

Boatboy -do one zone at a time 1st. Floor first. 1 year later zone 2.
Creeaton- ever little bit helps.


----------



## ZebraB




----------



## GreginND

Despite the rhetoric out there, masks do make a difference.


----------



## ibglowin

Wow, who hasn't seen this guy on most any day on the trading floor until they shut it down months ago. So glad he survived but 38 days of He// and still ongoing....... 









Wall Street's most photographed trader on beating Covid-19: It was a beast - CNN Video


NYSE trader Peter Tuchman, AKA Einstein, tells CNN's Alison Kosik about his experience battling Covid-19. On March 26, Tuchman announced he had Covid-19 and has since recovered from the virus.




www.cnn.com


----------



## Boatboy24

OK, this is really getting serious now. Normally, I can count on Lowe's and Home Depot having Memorial Day sales that drastically cut the price of Kingsford Charcoal. A twin pack of 20lb bags usually goes for $20 (or more), but around Memorial Day, they drop the price to under $10 ($9.88, $9.99, something like that). This year, that $19.99 deal is marked down a whopping $3 to $16.99. Usually, I stock up at this time of year; but for three bucks, I'm not going to take the risk of making a special trip to Lowes. 

Whining over...


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> OK, this is really getting serious now. Normally, I can count on Lowe's and Home Depot having Memorial Day sales that drastically cut the price of Kingsford Charcoal. A twin pack of 20lb bags usually goes for $20 (or more), but around Memorial Day, they drop the price to under $10 ($9.88, $9.99, something like that). This year, that $19.99 deal is marked down a whopping $3 to $16.99. Usually, I stock up at this time of year; but for three bucks, I'm not going to take the risk of making a special trip to Lowes.



Me too and me too! I.e., same on both counts.

Perhaps more interesting in the grand scheme of things is that I did not know it was Memorial Day weekend already.


----------



## Ted Brumleve

Please give up the Kingsford or any other briquettes and use hardwood lump charcoal.
Yes, it will cost a little more but it's like having butter instead of margarine!


----------



## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> OK, this is really getting serious now. Normally, I can count on Lowe's and Home Depot having Memorial Day sales that drastically cut the price of Kingsford Charcoal. A twin pack of 20lb bags usually goes for $20 (or more), but around Memorial Day, they drop the price to under $10 ($9.88, $9.99, something like that). This year, that $19.99 deal is marked down a whopping $3 to $16.99. Usually, I stock up at this time of year; but for three bucks, I'm not going to take the risk of making a special trip to Lowes.
> 
> Whining over...


Darnet, I was about to head to Hanover and get two two packs, guess I'll go with the lump at my local Ace hardware, they'll drag it out and put it in your trunk, no risk at all.


----------



## Kraffty

This is also terrible to admit but I just realized it was memorial weekend when I saw a listing for a replay of the indi 500 this weekend.
Mike


----------



## ibglowin

Costco is your friend......






Boatboy24 said:


> Whining over...


----------



## Boatboy24

Ted Brumleve said:


> Please give up the Kingsford or any other briquettes and use hardwood lump charcoal.
> Yes, it will cost a little more but it's like having butter instead of margarine!



Agree. And I use a lot of lump too. There's a lot of 'junk lump' out there, but I've had good luck with Royal Oak or Wegman's brand (which is made by RO)


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> Costco is your friend......
> 
> View attachment 61462



That's what I'm going with. Just a tad cheaper than the Lowe's deal. Unfortunately, a limit of 2. But that should carry me until the 4th of July, when Lowe's will have a sale to get rid of their overstock.


----------



## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> That's what I'm going with. Just a tad cheaper than the Lowe's deal. Unfortunately, a limit of 2. But that should carry me until the 4th of July, when Lowe's will have a sale to get rid of their overstock.


I bought 6 x 20 lb bags about nine weeks ago, I'm down to a hand full. I don't understand why I'm grilling so much more? 

Also almost out of propane, I had a full 20 pounder plus about half of one one the grill.


----------



## ibglowin

Smiths (Kroger) had the 16lb Kingsford on sale for $6.99 this week so I picked up a couple bags yesterday with my $3/lb Brisket......  





I use the lump for long cooks in the Kamado but like the charcoal for short cooks on the Weber.





Boatboy24 said:


> That's what I'm going with. Just a tad cheaper than the Lowe's deal. Unfortunately, a limit of 2. But that should carry me until the 4th of July, when Lowe's will have a sale to get rid of their overstock.


----------



## Boatboy24

ceeaton said:


> I bought 6 x 20 lb bags about nine weeks ago, I'm down to a hand full. I don't understand why I'm grilling so much more?
> 
> Also almost out of propane, I had a full 20 pounder plus about half of one one the grill.



I need to check my propane status. Aside from using the patio heater a few weeks ago, it's been a while. I'm getting some parts I wanted for my Genesis for my birthday and am going to give it a good cleaning and parts swap this weekend. Will be 'cooking with gas', as they say, soon.


----------



## sour_grapes

Ted Brumleve said:


> Please give up the Kingsford or any other briquettes and use hardwood lump charcoal.
> Yes, it will cost a little more but it's like having butter instead of margarine!



Personally, I use a mix. I lay a loose base of briquettes on the grill, and I start a chimney of ~3/4 lump and ~1/4 briquettes (that were left over from last grilling). Then I dump the lit chimney on the base. Best of both worlds, IMHO.


----------



## 1d10t

ceeaton said:


> , they'll drag it out and put it in your trunk, no risk at all.


Well, there is always a risk.  That said, they are saying it is harder to get CV19 from surface contact than originally thought. It is still possible so just don't be stupid.


----------



## ceeaton

1d10t said:


> Well, there is always a risk.  That said, they are saying it is harder to get CV19 from surface contact than originally thought. It is still possible so just don't be stupid.


I usually leave it in my trunk until I remember to get it out, could be four or five days at least.

Plus I have a Toyota Corona, already tested positive.

Plus, plus I'm more worried about exposing people to me since my wife works in an operating room that regularly does surgeries on COVID positive patients. If I stay in the car and pop the trunk, all they have to do is put it in, I get out after they walk away and close the trunk (they know me pretty well, have discussed the procedure with them in the beginning of this).


----------



## Arne

Google up make your own chaarcoal. Havn't tried it yet, but looks pretty easy and once you get the setup should be pretty cheap if you can get some hardwood to make it out of. Arne.


----------



## sour_grapes

I love this. Only on WMT could the LONE thread about Coronavirus spiral off into a discussion of preferred BBQ fuels! On another forum that I pay some attention to, it has been just the opposite: EVERY thread has devolved into a coronavirus discussion.

Here's to us, none finer.


----------



## Boatboy24

Well, when that little virus impacts our ability to get cheap fuel, we're going to get upset about it.


----------



## Kraffty

we could just use gas


----------



## ceeaton

Kraffty said:


> we could just use gas


And a beautifully newly rebuild grill.


----------



## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> we could just use gas


----------



## Kraffty

how bad could unleaded summer blend be?


----------



## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> how bad could unleaded summer blend be?



Isn't it funny that 45 years after catalytic converters were introduced (and ~30 years after leaded gas was essentially unavailable, and 24 years after it was actually unavailable), we still say "unleaded"? And I suppose we always will....


----------



## Kraffty

I think I'll ask for unleaded paint next time I'm in home depot.... great point.


----------



## sour_grapes

I wasn't making a point! Just observing.

Actually, I think you NEEDED to say it the way you said it in your post. For the joke to work, you couldn't say the word "gas," so you needed to use a term that signified you meant gasoline. "Summer blend" by itself wouldn't quite cut it. "Unleaded summer blend" was perfect.


----------



## mainshipfred

I was really happy when posts got on the lighter, less political side and all those charts and graphs are not showing up as much. Perhaps people are now realizing they didn't depict truly accurate information.


----------



## sour_grapes

mainshipfred said:


> Perhaps people are now realizing they didn't depict truly accurate information.



Not clear what you mean by that. Which graphs do you feel were inaccurate?


----------



## bstnh1

If you're interested in spending a few hours reading exhaustively detailed reviews of lump charcoal see the link below:

The Lump Charcoal Database Reviews -- Naked Whiz Charcoal Ceramic Cooking


----------



## Boatboy24

bstnh1 said:


> If you're interested in spending a few hours reading exhaustively detailed reviews of lump charcoal see the link below:
> 
> The Lump Charcoal Database Reviews -- Naked Whiz Charcoal Ceramic Cooking



I've been down that rabbit hole...


----------



## mainshipfred

sour_grapes said:


> Not clear what you mean by that. Which graphs do you feel were inaccurate?



All along I've been trying to stay out of this thread although at times it has been very hard. When I referred to political I wasn't referring to governmental politics but rather differing opinions of ones views of a topic, in this case COVID 19. Perhaps inaccurate may not be the best word but rather inconclusive, ambiguous or equivocal but nonetheless there is reason to question the results. 

The political correct thing to say about the deaths is no death is acceptable, or the like, but the fact is people are going to die from this. My issue is how the deaths are reported and I just can't accept probable. Then they say people that die at home are not always counted and the numbers may be higher so my question is why are they not. There is much literature out the that tell how deaths from this or other causes are determined and it varies from State to State, so what parameters are they using. As far as probable goes there are causes of death that have the same or similar symptoms and my understanding is the probable count is done without testing just similar symptoms. Also just because someone dies with these symptoms and shows positive for COVID 19, was the death directly related to having it or underlying conditions. The lack of standards makes the death count questionable.

The number of new cases is also questionable and is directly related to the number of tests given so I don't see the growth rate charts as definitive. There will be more cases as time progresses but the growth rate chart would not be as vertical as it indicates if a similar amount of test were given in the beginning as are given now. What does the number of confirmed cases really indicate? So what is someone is confirmed positive if they show little or no or even moderate symptoms, there are far more cases with these results as not. 

One thing that can't be debated is we just don't know enough about this pandemic to have any answers that are not to some degree speculative or questionable. This is only my take on the situation and not my intention to enter into a debate. Everyone has the right to their opinion. My Mom had a great saying when things like this would come up "why do you think God gave us a brain".


----------



## GreginND

I posted the following on my Facebook feed and thought I would share it here. Common sense has gone out the window. I think the main problem is having rules without really educating the public about why a rule is there and what risk it is mitigating (or not). My fear that the general public that had been just resisting the blanket mandates now swing 180 degrees when restrictions are lifted to think the rule is gone, so back to normal is being realized in my state. Anyway, read if you want . . .

----- Posted 5-22-2020


So, most of you probably know that I have been a proponent of taking things slowly and waiting to understand this virus more before "letting 'er rip". But, I think some misunderstand me. For many reasons I have a problem with one size fits all arbitrary government mandates. In a number of states, businesses and churches are complaining about certain restrictions on them operating. I have to admit that some of the executive orders by politicians are not applicable for every place across a state. 

For example, in some states there is an absolute number restriction that nothing can have more than 50 people. What if a venue has acres of space that you could easily spread out 200 people 100 feet apart? Is that less safe than putting 10 people at one table in a restaurant? It doesn’t make sense; common, scientific or medical. It is not hard to craft guidelines that are aligned with the actual risks. Arbitrary numbers made up by politicians are not what is needed. That actually creates a false security for those places where 50 would be 40 people too many. 

Another example - some states closed all golf courses. What could be safer than having people out in fresh air, getting some exercise, and being hundreds of yards away from other golfers? We need sun and vitamin D right now. The only thing here that needed to be shut down was the nineteenth hole. 

Guidelines should reflect the appropriate distancing, ppe, etc, but then be flexible to adapt to each unique space. Why is that so hard? A rule that says if you are within 10 feet of anyone outside of your family bubble, you need a mask, is reasonable. Even if people decide they are ok with higher risks than others, a reasonable guideline is to make sure businesses only allow groups who choose to congregate, to have adequate distance from other customers and staff. All we can do is provide a safe space for customers to chose where they are safe and comfortable. We can do this safely with some smart common sense. We should continue to educate the public with facts and science and convince them what works to minimize risks. And only mandate that which provides businesses with guidance and assurance that they can enforce their safety guidelines based on those facts. 

I have rambled on too much. I hope you understand what I am saying here. Keep washing hands, distancing and wearing your masks to protect others when you are close.

-----


----------



## GreginND

FYI - the "Let 'er rip" comment came from my governor's press conference yesterday. He basically told the public all restrictions are no longer in place and the guidelines are "suggestions". They actually said "Let 'er rip". There will be no enforcement, no accountability. This right after our numbers are spiking to their highest levels yet and continue an exponential climb. Especially in my county were Fargo is . . we have a large fraction of the cases.


----------



## 1d10t

Given the seriousness of the illness on some people and the ease of spread is it really too much to expect people to wear a face mask until we get a vaccine? Years ago a friend in Japan sent a picture and I noticed a few people wearing surgical masks. It's 'been a thing' there for a long time with some people. Afraid God won't recognize you in church if you are wearing a mask and she won't credit you with being there?


----------



## ibglowin

I feel like this country is broken beyond repair. If we can't come together as one to fight a worldwide pandemic we're pretty much effed as a nation. This has sadly now become a battle between the mask wearers and the AR15 toting, State capital storming, Pandemic deniers.....


----------



## 1d10t

ibglowin said:


> I feel like this country is broken beyond repair. If we can't come together as one to fight a worldwide pandemic we're pretty much effed as a nation. This has sadly now become a battle between the mask wearers and the AR15 toting, State capital storming, Pandemic deniers.....


Which makes you feel safer or offers more protection now? An N95 or an AR15?


----------



## Kraffty

Well our daughter is officially quarantined and scared and angry and pissed. She's an assistant manager at a restaurant and had a manager living with family members who were exposed. The manager kept going into work without telling anyone. Her family members then tested positive and this manager still went to work until finally being contacted by the local health department, tested, found to be positive and then quarantined. In the mean time Emma has followed all guidelines religiously and is probably not infected. She went to be tested today and was told to just go home and isolate for 14 days. If symptoms show they will test her, if not they won't. Does not seem like much of a help to us. In the mean time she has a 4 year old baby and a husband that she worries she could have exposed because of the actions of this manager. In addition there are all of the other employees and patrons that visited when that manager was on duty. We have to assume and hope that the masking and sanitizing rules in effect at the restaurant minimized the chances but will have to wait and see.

So, in this case, a N95 would have made me, my wife, our daughter and her entire family feel much safer than an AR15.

Mike


----------



## ibglowin

And that is just plain BS. She should be tested. Not sure what State she lives in I think you mentioned WI but not sure. Here in NM anyone who wants a test can and will be tested. She falls into the category of being possibly exposed by a coworker so she should be tested immediately and without hesitation.

NM is now approaching 8% of the State population being tested.



Kraffty said:


> She went to be tested today and was told to just go home and isolate for 14 days. If symptoms show they will test her, if not they won't. Does not seem like much of a help to us.


----------



## bstnh1

ibglowin said:


> And that is just plain BS. She should be tested. Not sure what State she lives in I think you mentioned WI but not sure. Here in NM anyone who wants a test can and will be tested. She falls into the category of being possibly exposed by a coworker so she should be tested immediately and without hesitation.
> 
> NM is now approaching 8% of the State population being tested.


Here in NH, anyone can get tested for the active virus and for antibodies. My wife and I were both tested and all tests were negative. I would have liked to have a lot of antibodies, but no such luck!


----------



## Kraffty

Yeah, I got fired up and Lori, while on the phone with Em, kept saying "she's dealing directly with the health department". Great...... and yes it's WI
What I don't get is a basic lack of common sense in so much of this.
Mike


----------



## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> Well our daughter is officially quarantined and scared and angry and pissed. She's an assistant manager at a restaurant and had a manager living with family members who were exposed. The manager kept going into work without telling anyone. Her family members then tested positive and this manager still went to work until finally being contacted by the local health department, tested, found to be positive and then quarantined. In the mean time Emma has followed all guidelines religiously and is probably not infected. She went to be tested today and was told to just go home and isolate for 14 days. If symptoms show they will test her, if not they won't. Does not seem like much of a help to us. In the mean time she has a 4 year old baby and a husband that she worries she could have exposed because of the actions of this manager. In addition there are all of the other employees and patrons that visited when that manager was on duty. We have to assume and hope that the masking and sanitizing rules in effect at the restaurant minimized the chances but will have to wait and see.
> 
> So, in this case, a N95 would have made me, my wife, our daughter and her entire family feel much safer than an AR15.
> 
> Mike



While I can certainly understand that some people must work, that is ridiculous. And there should be penalties for knowingly exposing dozens (or more) to a deadly disease. Hopefully, Emma is not infected and can confirm that with a test so a little peace of mind can be had.


----------



## sour_grapes

That is a real shame, Mike. Yes, that person was beyond irresponsible.

I cannot recall where you said your daughter lives. In my area, testing sites are now available. This page shows current testing sites statewide (but if she is working with the Health Dept., my page is probably not necessary). COVID-19: How to get tested


----------



## reeflections

I found this to be apropos to our time.


----------



## mbleill

ZebraB said:


> View attachment 61403


----------



## mbleill

ZebraB said:


> View attachment 61403


Hello ZebraB, Do you know the source of this information? I am not debating it but I posted it on my facebook page and I am being asked to provide the source of the informations and their assumptions. Thanks for your understanding. Best regards.


----------



## ZebraB

It was on my linked in account and assumed it was ok since my contacts are all from the medical device and pharm industry. I did not see it there now and saw this article. My apologies. 









Partly false claim: Wear a face mask; COVID-19 risk reduced by up to 98.5%


Illustrations widely shared on social media claim to show the percentage decreases in the risk of COVID-19 contagion when people wear face masks. ( https://www.facebook.com/peacefulparenting/photos/a.10153890804242671/10157139567162671/?type=3&theater , https://www.facebook.com...




www.reuters.com


----------



## DizzyIzzy

Kraffty said:


> Well our daughter is officially quarantined and scared and angry and pissed. She's an assistant manager at a restaurant and had a manager living with family members who were exposed. The manager kept going into work without telling anyone. Her family members then tested positive and this manager still went to work until finally being contacted by the local health department, tested, found to be positive and then quarantined. In the mean time Emma has followed all guidelines religiously and is probably not infected. She went to be tested today and was told to just go home and isolate for 14 days. If symptoms show they will test her, if not they won't. Does not seem like much of a help to us. In the mean time she has a 4 year old baby and a husband that she worries she could have exposed because of the actions of this manager. In addition there are all of the other employees and patrons that visited when that manager was on duty. We have to assume and hope that the masking and sanitizing rules in effect at the restaurant minimized the chances but will have to wait and see.
> 
> So, in this case, a N95 would have made me, my wife, our daughter and her entire family feel much safer than an AR15.
> 
> Mike


Kraffty, so sorry to hear about your daughter: all because of someone else's inconsideration and selfishness!! The restaurant should FIRE that manager!


----------



## GreginND

Don't be sorry. While the numbers may not be 98.5% risk reduction, there certainly IS risk reduction if all wear masks. This is particularly true for those infected to stop as many droplets as possible from circulating. This video is fascinating and shows what happens when people simply gather and talk to each other. Bottom line - wear masks, distance and spend less time indoors where the air is stagnant.


----------



## GreginND

FYI . . . on the good news front, the number of deaths reported in the US has dropped to levels we haven't seen since before April 1. While new infections per day continue on a flat trend and active cases is still slowly rising, lives are being saved.


----------



## ZebraB

Krafty,

I am sorry about your daughter and family. I think a firing is not enough for people who know that they have COVID-19 and do not pass on that information to others that they are potentially infecting. For HIV there were reckless endangerment and attempted murder laws to people who knowingly transmitted HIV. I don't see the difference with Covid-19 until we have a cure





__





HIV and STD Criminalization Laws | Law | Policy and Law | HIV/AIDS | CDC


During the early years of the HIV epidemic, a number of states implemented HIV-specific criminal exposure laws.




www.cdc.gov


----------



## mbleill

ZebraB said:


> It was on my linked in account and assumed it was ok since my contacts are all from the medical device and pharm industry. I did not see it there now and saw this article. My apologies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Partly false claim: Wear a face mask; COVID-19 risk reduced by up to 98.5%
> 
> 
> Illustrations widely shared on social media claim to show the percentage decreases in the risk of COVID-19 contagion when people wear face masks. ( https://www.facebook.com/peacefulparenting/photos/a.10153890804242671/10157139567162671/?type=3&theater , https://www.facebook.com...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Thank you for clarifying. Best regards and cheers! Mike


----------



## Kraffty

So at the risk of continuing my rant, can someone explain in a way that makes sense, why testing is so important. Even though the health dept. didn't want to test our daughter in Eau Clair she went ahead and got tested on her own this morning. She'll have results in 24 to 48 hours. Now here's where my confusion over testing kicks in. I asked if she tests negative can she go back to work (skip 14 day quarantine) and the answer is no. I guess you can test and have it but maybe in incubation stage or false negative.

I'm in favor of just about anything we can do in hopes of slowing this thing until they come up with a vaccination but unless you're showing symptoms I don't see how testing adds any really useful information.

Mike


----------



## GaDawg




----------



## ibglowin

Testing is critical so you can track cases and isolate and slow the continued spread. Without testing you can't slow the spread so it just continues to blow up unhindered by any means of isolation or quarantine. Many places seeing Covid-19 transmission are following an exponential growth trajectory. That is, the rate of the spread of the infection is proportional to the number of people infected. Each infected person is expected to infect a certain number of people — around 2.5 right now — who each in turn go on to infect 2.5 more, and on and on, unless drastic measures are taken to reduce social contact and isolate the infected from others. 

Think about counting doubles — 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and so on. How many times would you have to double to get to more than 1 million? 20. How many doubles to get to more than 16 million? 24.




Kraffty said:


> So at the risk of continuing my rant, can someone explain in a way that makes sense, why testing is so important. Even though the health dept. didn't want to test our daughter in Eau Clair she went ahead and got tested on her own this morning. She'll have results in 24 to 48 hours. Now here's where my confusion over testing kicks in. I asked if she tests negative can she go back to work (skip 14 day quarantine) and the answer is no. I guess you can test and have it but maybe in incubation stage or false negative.
> 
> I'm in favor of just about anything we can do in hopes of slowing this thing until they come up with a vaccination but unless you're showing symptoms I don't see how testing adds any really useful information.
> 
> Mike


----------



## Kraffty

I guess the point I'm asking about is that based on Emma's test and assuming the result is neg. All they can tell for sure is that she may or may not have it. Otherwise they'd be able to tell her she needs to isolate or she can go back to work.

Maybe it's as simple as needing the positive result count to understand the effect to the population.
Mike


----------



## ibglowin

The more we test the more we learn about this virus as far as the transmission rate. Remember the test is not perfect and not always 100% reliable depending on the test type and how long it has been since you may have been exposed to the virus which makes this all even harder to figure out (with absolute certainty) but we still learn as we go. If she comes back negative you can breath a sigh of relief but I think it would be wise to continue to self quarantine and have a second test in a week. More data is almost always better than less data unless its garbage data and considering some of the struggles States are having trying to get testing kits and supplies all we can do is hope we are getting better and more accurate results as time goes by and not worse. I saw where WA State received a delivery of what was supposed to be nasal test swabs for COVID-19 from the federal government a few weeks back and what they were sent was a jumbo package of Q-Tips. You can't use a Q-Tip as a nasal swab for this virus........


----------



## Kraffty

Thanks for trying patiently to clarify the basic reasoning for me Mike. It just becomes so much less statistical when it's closer to home. We're confident she doesn't have it, and if she did, she's in the group that would probably have minimal effects from it but Mama Bear get riled up and then the whole sleuth get their hackles up.

Thanks again,
Mike


----------



## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> Thanks for trying patiently to clarify the basic reasoning for me Mike. It just becomes so much less statistical when it's closer to home. We're confident she doesn't have it, and if she did, she's in the group that would probably have minimal effects from it but Mama Bear get riled up and then the whole sleuth get their hackles up.
> 
> Thanks again,
> Mike



But EXCELLENT casual use of "sleuth," even in the midst of your troubles!


----------



## DizzyIzzy

ZebraB said:


> Krafty,
> 
> I am sorry about your daughter and family. I think a firing is not enough for people who know that they have COVID-19 and do not pass on that information to others that they are potentially infecting. For HIV there were reckless endangerment and attempted murder laws to people who knowingly transmitted HIV. I don't see the difference with Covid-19 until we have a cure
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> HIV and STD Criminalization Laws | Law | Policy and Law | HIV/AIDS | CDC
> 
> 
> During the early years of the HIV epidemic, a number of states implemented HIV-specific criminal exposure laws.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cdc.gov


Zebra, I thoroughly agree with you!


----------



## ZebraB

Attached is a meta analysis study on the use of face masks. A meta analysis study is a study that reviews all previously studies and outcomes. It is used to determine the common outcomes of all the various studies. Single studies can be skewed by single institution, Lab environment, OR environment, Asia and US (facial charatistics) etc... As you will see there is a statical benefit for using masks..... 

"The risk of influenza, SARS, and COVID-19 infection were reduced by 45%, 74%, and 96% by wearing masks, respectively, which were consistent with previous meta-analyses during the SARS outbreaks"

"for non-healthcare populations, reduced risk of 54% was found in western countries, and a reduced risk of 49% was found in Asia."









Efficacy of face mask in preventing respiratory virus transmission: A systematic review and meta-analysis


Conflicting recommendations exist related to whether masks have a protective effect on the spread of respiratory viruses.The Preferred Reporting Items…




www.sciencedirect.com


----------



## joeswine

Better to be safe than sorry,an ounce of prevention is with a pound of cure, any others?


----------



## ibglowin

Just heard this on Spotify for the first time. Nice words.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Weird visit to the big box lumber.
Am needing to replace a plain Jane 18 cf fridge in a rental. They had a run on 18 fridges in March and have not gotten restocked. This is turning out harder to fix, last time it was drive up to door 6 and load one.


----------



## ibglowin

Yep, when the meat/frozen foods hoarding started people went out and snapped up all the inexpensive freezers and refrigerators in all the big box stores. The supply chain from China is still almost at a standstill.



Rice_Guy said:


> They had a run on 18 fridges in March and have not gotten restocked.


----------



## cmason1957

Rice_Guy said:


> Weird visit to the big box lumber.
> Am needing to replace a plain Jane 18 cf fridge in a rental. They had a run on 18 fridges in March and have not gotten restocked. This is turning out harder to fix, last time it was drive up to door 6 and load one.



My bonus son and daughter had to replace a fridge last month, the one they had just died. Big box stores said 3 to 6 weeks and they wouldn't give them a definitive time. They ended up going to the local scratch and dent selling place, got a slightly smaller fridge, with a minor scratch on the back for a very good price, delivered the next day. Might be a place for you to look.


----------



## joeswine

Something new comes my way, yesterday on the way from a service call I noticed at least 10 state trooper cars traveling at high speeds on this major highway, when I got home my lady said people were throwing bricks from the over passes, and had caused 2 accidents already , now I know why the trooper'severywhere.
So this brings to a saying ,"never let a good crises go to waste".
On a lighter note I finally got a haircut appointment. Will wonders never ceases".
But not till July 3rd??¿


----------



## Rice_Guy

I have been amazed at some of the things which get posted here on WMT.
THANKS, a great article.


ZebraB said:


> Attached is a meta analysis study on the use of face masks. A meta analysis study is a study that reviews all previously studies and outcomes. It is used to determine the common outcomes of all the various studies. Single studies can be skewed by single institution,


----------



## Rice_Guy

cmason1957 said:


> My bonus son and daughter had to replace a fridge last month, the one they had just died. Big box stores said 3 to 6 weeks and they wouldn't give them a definitive time. They ended up going to the local scratch and dent selling place, got a slightly smaller fridge, with a minor scratch on the back for a very good price, delivered the next day. Might be a place for you to look.


The local dealer who has been here for 50 years still had 18’s, ,,, and only 150 more than the apartment variety.


----------



## Kraffty

Arizona relaxed restrictions over the last couple of weeks and based on the lack of masks we see when we go out now I guess a lot of people think that means the pandemic is over. Well, shock of all shocks..... back to work on my Bunker.... I mean Winery.......
Mike


----------



## Boatboy24

@Kraffty that is a very concerning spike. How's total testing compared to a few weeks ago?

Most of Va opened two weeks ago. The counties here close to the District just opened last Friday ('phase 1, that is). At the same time, the Governor mandated that masks be worn in any public building. So far, things remain pretty good statewide. We'll see how things look in another week. I have to admit, it was a little strange driving by a couple restaurants yesterday and seeing a few people in the outdoor seating areas.


----------



## joeswine

For those who work from home or can what can I say, but for me I'm on the streets everyday here in new Jersey and for what it's worth more cars on the highway each day.
What I do is take each article by its self anyone in business knows you can make numbers do what ever you want them to , I listen to my friend and fellow winemaker ( head controller for a leading hospital ) ,as per her comment, " it's like know one has passed away from anything else, no strokes, , heart attacks just c19, and for every death attributed to c,19 it's an extra 4000,00 to the hospital per patient.
I know there's people out their who will think I'm nuts,cold hearted etc.
But know one knows this virus ,know one..knows.all conjecture , and maybes
My customers I service are as a rule seniors, and there confused and scared, or just don't care. It's a sad state of affairs. Just my thoughts .


----------



## Boatboy24

Northern Virginia moving to phase 2 on Friday. New infections and the % of positive test results have been dropping significantly. Here's to hoping that remains steady, or continues to fall.  I'm still somewhere between phase 0 and phase 1 though.


----------



## 1d10t

I've read that things are looking bad in Arizona.


----------



## sour_grapes

I just went and got a nose swab! Very funny feeling. Hoping (and expecting) the results come back negative.


----------



## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> I just went and got a nose swab! Very funny feeling. Hoping (and expecting) the results come back negative.



Are you symptomatic?


----------



## ceeaton

sour_grapes said:


> I just went and got a nose swab! Very funny feeling. Hoping (and expecting) the results come back negative.


I had a coworker who just had to have a stent inserted in one of her arteries after a minor heart attack. She thought the COVID swab test was worse than the stent procedure. She said something about thinking they swabbed out part of her brain during the test.


----------



## Kraffty

Our Yavapai County Arizona Health Department Director gives a daily update and talked about the reports of major increases in cases here. She also broke down hot spot counties vs counties where the numbers are staying flat or declining. South and South Central counties are blowing up. Maricopa (phoenix) and Yuma, Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise counties (all four on the mexican border) are seeing huge increases. Cottonwood is in Northern Arizona which was low (except for the Navajo Nation at the 4 corners) is unchanged overall. Our Governor did hold back on moving to Phase 2 but it sure seems he should be working harding at enforcing restrictions and educating the public that this is nowhere near finished.


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> Are you symptomatic?



No, no, nothing like that. Our public health department has enough capacity, and so is encouraging people to get tested proactively. I was exposed to a lot of people over the weekend, so I thought it would be a good idea.


----------



## bstnh1

The states that had no lockdown did not fare any worse than the states that did.


----------



## joeswine

Imagine that  even my seniors are growing tired of this loneliness especially the women there needs to be some kind of relief for these people not even there activity centers are there for them ,it's not mentally healthy .


----------



## sour_grapes

Well, I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like my father-in-law is going to make it!  He is in a nursing home in another state (Missouri), and slowly but surely Covid swept through the facility. About half of the residents got it (as well as some staff). Of the residents who got it, about 25% have died, and about half have already recovered, and 25% still sick. It looks like my F-I-L has now joined the "recovered" group. (I want to post a celebratory smilie here, but it seems disrespectful to the ones who didn't make it.)

Still no idea when we will be able to see him...


----------



## joeswine

I can't imagine have to be put in a care center and then not being able to at least see your family from time to time, I've done business with seniors long before I became one and I know for them it can be a long and lonely road without family or friends or associates to come and visit you.
You here about all the dark spots and the room and gloom on the TV , what you don't here quit enough is the breakthroughs and the recovery sides of the story.
Although my street customers ( not in a retirement devopment) are going strong and purchasing new equipment .
That's a bright spot for me


----------



## sour_grapes

Buckle up!


----------



## joeswine

If younger people are carrier's and if that age group is becoming more tested than it would stand to reason their would be a spike.
Just by testing for body temperature doesn't mean C19. There could be a dozen reasons why, I just say,in.
Maybe it's the younger generation that needs to stay home.
With all the. Protest that are out there how many of them have contacted C19.


----------



## ZebraB

FDA advises consumers not to use hand sanitizer products manufactured by Eskbiochem due to the potential presence of methanol (wood alcohol), a substance that can be toxic when absorbed through the skin or ingested.

All-Clean Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-002-01)
Esk Biochem Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-007-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-008-04)
Lavar 70 Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-006-01)
The Good Gel Antibacterial Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-010-10)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-005-03)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-009-01)
CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-003-01)
Saniderm Advanced Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-001-01)









FDA Advises Consumers Not to Use Eskbiochem Hand Sanitizers


FDA Advises Consumers Not to Use Eskbiochem Hand Sanitizers due to the potential presence of methanol




www.fda.gov


----------



## Kraffty

Our govener has bailed on requiring face masks but last week suggested each city set their own rules. Most larger cities are enacting polices making them mandatory. A little late again.


----------



## joeswine

Nice, even this has a problem, I'm going to brunch today. Happy father's day all.


----------



## sour_grapes

joeswine said:


> Just by testing for body temperature doesn't mean C19. There could be a dozen reasons why, I just say,in.



Those numbers are for confirmed Covid cases, not fevers. 



> With all the. Protest that are out there how many of them have contacted C19.



I agree that protests and rallies are potentially dangerous. At least most of these have been outdoors, and, at least in my area, people typically wear masks.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

ZebraB said:


> FDA advises consumers not to use hand sanitizer products manufactured by Eskbiochem due to the potential presence of methanol (wood alcohol), a substance that can be toxic when absorbed through the skin or ingested.
> 
> All-Clean Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-002-01)
> Esk Biochem Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-007-01)
> CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-008-04)
> Lavar 70 Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-006-01)
> The Good Gel Antibacterial Gel Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-010-10)
> CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-005-03)
> CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-009-01)
> CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol (NDC: 74589-003-01)
> Saniderm Advanced Hand Sanitizer (NDC: 74589-001-01)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FDA Advises Consumers Not to Use Eskbiochem Hand Sanitizers
> 
> 
> FDA Advises Consumers Not to Use Eskbiochem Hand Sanitizers due to the potential presence of methanol
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.fda.gov


Zebra, Thanks for the update.......................good to know!.....................Dizzy


----------



## ibglowin

Tourism in post pandemic world.


----------



## Boatboy24

Well, we seem to be holding steady here in Virginia - well into Phase 2 and about to enter Phase 3. Despite the loosening, a lot of people here are still living 'pandemically'. We had an average of 927 new cases per day in the month of May. In June, that was 606 - the last two weeks averaged 527/day. Hoping it continues and the hot spots in other parts of the country can start to cool down.


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> Well, we seem to be holding steady here in Virginia - well into Phase 2 and about to enter Phase 3. Despite the loosening, a lot of people here are still living 'pandemically'. We had an average of 927 new cases per day in the month of May. In June, that was 606 - the last two weeks averaged 527/day. Hoping it continues and the hot spots in other parts of the country can start to cool down.



Glad to hear that about VA. Meanwhile, about those hotspots....


----------



## ibglowin

Your graph seems to be missing a State! I would like to add it as a fine example of what happens when you don't believe in science......

Edit: The Black counties are currently "winning" the race.







sour_grapes said:


> Glad to hear that about VA. Meanwhile, about those hotspots....


----------



## Boatboy24

Oh, and we've already been notified that a 100% in-school scenario is NOT an option for the coming school year. We can either opt to have our kids 100% on line, or in-school two days a week, with the remainder at home. Understandable, but there are a lot of working parents up in arms. And apparently large groups of teachers who want no in-school education at all. It's going to be interesting watching this play out. Our kids are split - one really wants to be in school and the other is happy on line.


----------



## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> Oh, and we've already been notified that a 100% in-school scenario is NOT an option for the coming school year. We can either opt to have our kids 100% on line, or in-school two days a week, with the remainder at home. Understandable, but there are a lot of working parents up in arms. And apparently large groups of teachers who want no in-school education at all. It's going to be interesting watching this play out. Our kids are split - one really wants to be in school and the other is happy on line.


Our school board just came up with three options (at least). The main one that I think they will go for is two days a week with in school classes, staggering half the students between their two days a week. I think they are more worried about the close proximity on the buses to and from school. 

As with your boys, our two who are still in school are split. My son is very good at the online thing and actually raised his grades higher at home (he's a brainiac, not sure who his parents are, he's smarter than my wife and I combined), my daughter needs the hands on and show me type of instruction.


----------



## NoQuarter

Even my county has now had 2 deaths. Over 40 cases have been identified.
I moved out into the country to get away from these kind of things but people still go into the big cities for work or even weekend partying.
Ill have to continue to remain on the farm I suppose.


----------



## joeswine

Have no fear it will find you , don't feel left out..
On the other hand , don't believe all you see or hear take it for what it's worth , believe what concerns you , enjoy a good glass of wine. 
We can't stop what my or may not happen and the movement of others we can only control our own actions.And what we do our selves. Nothing more.


----------



## NoQuarter

True words... With an average age of 75 for c-19 deaths and mostly pre-existing conditions, I'm not too worried about it. Still don't want it.
I have been able to get a LOT done over the last few months that have been put off too long. Now this doggone web-site has me wanting to do a bunch of wines I never thought of. Don't know what I'm gonna do with all of the wine I plan on making.


----------



## Kraffty

AZ gov. Ducey held a conference yesterday basically closing down many of the "gatherings" type businesses where an awful lot of people seemed to be in full denial that a pandemic existed. He still refuses to mandate masks in public though. A really sad and telling poll was run and the next morning results from over 30,000 Arizonians had over 70% of responses disagreeing with the govener's decision to slow things back down. Hope we can come around to follow whatever it is that states like Virginia have done or it's going to be a long long summer.


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> Your graph seems to be missing a State! I would like to add it as a fine example of what happens when you don't believe in science......
> 
> Edit: The Black counties are currently "winning" the race.
> 
> View attachment 63034
> View attachment 63035




Okay, here is one with Texas for you. BTW, on this per-capita graph, Nevada essentially overlapped Texas; I removed it for clarity:


----------



## sour_grapes

Oh, and, no, the increases are not just due to increased testing: (Graph shows number of tests/day, normalized to population.)


----------



## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> Oh, and we've already been notified that a 100% in-school scenario is NOT an option for the coming school year. We can either opt to have our kids 100% on line, or in-school two days a week, with the remainder at home. Understandable, but there are a lot of working parents up in arms. And apparently large groups of teachers who want no in-school education at all. It's going to be interesting watching this play out. Our kids are split - one really wants to be in school and the other is happy on line.



Haven't heard that one yet but then again I don't follow it since mine are all older.


----------



## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Haven't heard that one yet but then again I don't follow it since mine are all older.



It's interesting. Both options will be available (all at home, or 2 days/week in school). We have to register by 7/10 to indicate which option we want. From there, the schools will figure out how to staff accordingly and figure out lesson plans.


----------



## ibglowin

One of these things is not like the other..........


----------



## Boatboy24

Fascinating how those two curves are almost identical for their first 60-75 days, with the US, just trailing by two weeks. It all changed after that.


----------



## ZebraB

*239 Experts With One Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne*
The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.......

But in an open letter to the W.H.O., 239 scientists in 32 countries have outlined the evidence showing that smaller particles can infect people, and are calling for the agency to revise its recommendations. The researchers plan to publish their letter in a scientific journal next week.









239 Experts With One Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne (Published 2020)


The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.




www.nytimes.com


----------



## ibglowin

NM just spent $67K running a tourism ad this weekend in all newspapers in both TX and AZ. 





Basically saying we would love to see you but now is not the best time to visit and if you do, bring a mask, wear it, oh and BTW, we have a 14 day quarantine if you do come. Some friends of ours went to Santa fe this weekend to deliver meals for the elderly and shut-ins. Afterwards they drove to a food truck on the plaza. All the locals where wearing a mask in line. A group of 4 older women strolled up to the line. None were masked. When the line turned to tell them the need to be masked you can guess what happened next. The women (from Texas) got into a screaming shouting match with everyone. Insults were hurled in both directions. They were told to go back home. The food truck refused to take their order without a mask. They finally got back in their car and left.


----------



## Boatboy24

Such a shame that people can't just put on a stupid mask for a few minutes out of common courtesy/decency. I hate wearing the damn things, but for all I know, I could be carrying this bug around and I'd rather not spread it to friends OR strangers.


----------



## 1d10t

I think we're also starting to see people claiming 'medical exemption' to NOT wear a mask like the people smuggling small ponies onto airplanes as 'support' animals. I saw one woman screaming she couldn't wear a mask for medical reasons. Her lungs seemed to be in fine shape.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Boatboy24 said:


> It's interesting. Both options will be available (all at home, or 2 days/week in school). We have to register by 7/10 to indicate which option we want. From there, the schools will figure out how to staff accordingly and figure out lesson plans.


Yes school plans are interesting, , but extremely raw yet, , 
the wife looks at the lack of detail and wonders about retiring early, I/ we know covid will be in the building, it is a numbers game
some how I don’t hear the big point yet, it will cost more,,, and some details like who will be a sub in your classroom technically may not exist (the liscensed subs seem to be mainly retired teachers)


----------



## Kraffty

I saw one woman screaming she couldn't wear a mask for medical reasons. Her lungs seemed to be in fine shape. 

...Although based on what I heard coming out of her mouth those lungs were quite dirty.....


----------



## Ajmassa

Well it was a nice run I had going up until now. I’ve personally known multiple people who have contracted Covid over here in jersey and PA. Not sure exact number but a lot. Couple dozen maybe. But up until now not a single one ended up sick or really shown any symptoms at all. 
Found out last night my neighbor who contracted the virus fell very ill. We share a backyard fence. Was told that our area hospital said he was the most complicated case they had seen yet and had to send him to another. He passed away yesterday. Only 59yrs old. No underlying issues at all. His wife and daughter told me he was the healthiest 59yr old she’s ever known. Which I believe. His yard is a work of art. Spent hours upon hours every single day out there tending to it. 
He was originally tested for his job. Had zero symptoms at that point. Stay safe out there


----------



## sour_grapes

Thanks for sharing, Andrew. Sorry to hear.


----------



## Ajmassa

sour_grapes said:


> Thanks for sharing, Andrew. Sorry to hear.


Yea it’s certainly an eye opener for me. Not that I haven’t taken this seriously at all- because I have. But I was more or less going with the flow because ya just kinda have to. Masks. Social distance. Washing hands etc. I mean around here even if don’t agree with the mask thing you still do it because it’s a necessity. Can’t do anything without it. And also don’t wanna piss off anyone around me lol. Nobody’s fighting it. They just do it. 

Places like Texas I guess it’s different when a safety precedent hasn’t already been set and people have been set in their ways. I dunno.
Also it’s noteworthy to point out the majority of people I know who have contracted it recently have been teenagers. It’s running through entire crowds. My good friends daughters entire shore house. Friends of ours son at a party — entire party tested positive. Every one. But up until my neighbor Brian I can’t lie, there was still a part of me that wasn’t respecting the reality of dying from it


----------



## sour_grapes

Ajmassa said:


> But up until my neighbor Brian I can’t lie, there was still a part of me that wasn’t respecting the reality of dying from it



This resonates with me -- I have shared that feeling. And I am essentially the same age as your friend!


----------



## GreginND




----------



## Boatboy24

A little bit of good news - at least for those of us in Northern Virginia.









Northern Virginia continues to avoid COVID-19 spikes seen elsewhere


Northern Virginia continues to avoid the kind of spikes in COVID-19 cases seen elsewhere in the country, including recent increases in other parts of the state.




www.insidenova.com


----------



## ceeaton

sour_grapes said:


> This resonates with me -- I have shared that feeling. And I am essentially the same age as your friend!


Yeah, 57 and pretty healthy. No bad habits other than drinking (which I think is a good habit). I guess it depends how bad you get it. Now that I'm going into work three days a week (we have mandated mask wearing anywhere on the company property, including the parking lot with no one in site (I know, I got yelled at but hadn't read the company email that was sent that morning yet)) I'm somewhat concerned for others (wifey works in a hospital OR).

Guess I'm glad I dropped a few pounds.


----------



## ibglowin

AJ,

Condolences to his family. 



Ajmassa said:


> Well it was a nice run I had going up until now.


----------



## Ajmassa

. 


ibglowin said:


> AJ,
> Condolences to his family.


 yeah. my same thoughts as well. It’s pretty gut wrenching to think about. Feel absolutely terrible for the girls. And the dogs too! Both his dogs and mine would go nuts when he comes outside! He’s out there tossing the ball every day for his two border collies as my two run up and down the fence line and he always leans over giving them attention. It’s their morning and afternoon routine

eh. To change gears here, anyone rocking any cool/unique masks? My favorite is this breathable stretchy doo-rag material mask I’ve been using. It’s not really a mask per se. can be a headband, bandana, full face etc. just wear around my neck and pull it up as needed. Been my go-to for a month now.


----------



## sour_grapes

Ajmassa said:


> . My favorite is this breathable stretchy doo-rag material mask I’ve been using. It’s not really a mask per se. can be a headband, bandana, full face etc.



Bill Nye would prefer you to wear something with at least two layers of cloth: Bill Nye on TikTok


----------



## ZebraB

Just remember if someone around you had covid when the mask was on, then there is a potential for the droplets to be on the outside. So when you touch your mask from around your neck to cover your face again, then it could be on your hands. Sanitizer will solve that


----------



## 1d10t

My daughter-in-law sorta has to go to her brother's wedding tomorrow. Long sad story there that I'll spare you from and myself from typing. 

I had a friend with some spare N95's from a bad fire season in California so he sent me some. I gifted 1 to her and 1 to my son. I told her if she wears it tomorrow, my recommendation, that she should maybe wear a scarf over it to keep it clean for possible reuse in the future.


----------



## ZebraB

Below is a link on re-use guidance. My dental hygienist wore a surgical mask over her N95. I just use the N95 mask with a coffee filter underneath so I don't soil the inside and store it in a paper bag for at least 7 days. (similar to the 5 mask rotation timeline also in the following guideline. I definitely would throw it out if I knew I was exposed to the virus. 









N95 Mask Re-Use Strategies - SAGES


Personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic have precipitated a wave of creative solutions for repurposing of N95 masks. A growing influx of new information can make it difficult to discern best practices for mask re-use.




www.sages.org


----------



## stickman

I let my mask bake at 140F with UV radiation in the front dash of my car, it's not ideal but is the best I can do.


----------



## ceeaton

Ajmassa said:


> To change gears here, anyone rocking any cool/unique masks? My favorite is this breathable stretchy doo-rag material mask I’ve been using. It’s not really a mask per se. can be a headband, bandana, full face etc. just wear around my neck and pull it up as needed. Been my go-to for a month now.


My wife made me a Philadelphia Eagles mask. Lots of Steelers fans around here, so it is definitely unique. Haven't been punched out yet...


----------



## sour_grapes

Craig, even before Covid, when I wear a mask, it makes people LESS likely to want to punch me!


----------



## ceeaton

For me it is my boss, he says I talk too much, not quite sure why he thinks that, LOL. I do talk less with a mask on so I don't get it all moist and stuff. Don't want that Eagles green to fade!


----------



## ibglowin

That is what I do since its at least that on a daily basis inside our vehicles and usually 4-5 days between trips to the grocery store for supplies. So far (N=1) it seems to be working just fine. Not dead yet...... We have more UV than most people so extra bonus.






stickman said:


> I let my mask bake at 140F with UV radiation in the front dash of my car, it's not ideal but is the best I can do.


----------



## ceeaton

Me too. I just bake on the dashboard. But if I talk too much (I don't know why people think I do that) and get enough spittle on the cloth I just wash it, maybe once every two days or so. Being in work I have extra masks that my wife bought and rotate them when moist, which isn't very often since I don't talk too much.


----------



## GreginND

Rocking my mask. On a sad note, with the cases spiking here in ND and elsewhere, we have decided to cancel our big “Maker’s Market” festival in August. This is our biggest event of the year. I don’t think the folks who refuse to take this seriously understand the impact they are causing on small businesses.


----------



## Boatboy24

Virginia is on the rise now. We'd been averaging between 400-600 new cases per day. The last 3 have been over 900 on average. Testing is up quite significantly as well though and the % of positives is flat or declining. I'm very curious to know how many of these positives are actually symptomatic. I've worried moving to phase 3 on 1 July was premature.


----------



## Chuck E

Boatboy24 said:


> Virginia is on the rise now. We'd been averaging between 400-600 new cases per day. The last 3 have been over 900 on average. Testing is up quite significantly as well though and the % of positives is flat or declining. I'm very curious to know how many of these positives are actually symptomatic. I've worried moving to phase 3 on 1 July was premature.



Positive cases are not a great statistic. Cases in hospital beds seems better to me.


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> Positive cases are not a great statistic. Cases in hospital beds seems better to me.



Ask and ye shall receive:


----------



## GreginND

Many states, including mine, are living by the Percent Positive rate. Our state has been reporting this as quite low, between 1-2%. But they are likely fudging the numbers. They calculate based on total original positive cases, but it seems the total number of tests value they divide by includes all repeat tests. There are many in health care and other fields that are getting tested over and over again regularly. They also do fewer tests in the high population areas and more tests in the areas that are less impacted to get more negative tests for the bottom line. Our local positivity rate is really around 10% or so but they don't report that.


----------



## Boatboy24

GreginND said:


> Many states, including mine, are living by the Percent Positive rate. Our state has been reporting this as quite low, between 1-2%. But they are likely fudging the numbers. They calculate based on total original positive cases, but it seems the total number of tests value they divide by includes all repeat tests. There are many in health care and other fields that are getting tested over and over again regularly. They also do fewer tests in the high population areas and more tests in the areas that are less impacted to get more negative tests for the bottom line. Our local positivity rate is really around 10% or so but they don't report that.



I've been watching that as well. Locally, we're continuing downward, but the rest of the state is on the rise. Statewide, we're reporting just under 7%, with my county just under 6%. Those numbers are remaining somewhat steady, with only a very minor increase in the last two weeks. We ended June with a 7 day average of 12k tests daily. We are currently over 15k per day. Unfortunately, as Paul noted, hospitalizations are on the rise.


----------



## sour_grapes

GreginND said:


> Many states, including mine, are living by the Percent Positive rate. Our state has been reporting this as quite low, between 1-2%. But they are likely fudging the numbers. They calculate based on total original positive cases, but it seems the total number of tests value they divide by includes all repeat tests. There are many in health care and other fields that are getting tested over and over again regularly. They also do fewer tests in the high population areas and more tests in the areas that are less impacted to get more negative tests for the bottom line. Our local positivity rate is really around 10% or so but they don't report that.



I dunno, Greg. The Johns Hopkins dataset has you creeping up to the 5-6% positivity rate now:


----------



## bstnh1

I look at it this way .... the more people that get the virus, the closer we get to herd immunity. All the precautions taken from day one were only intended to slow the spread, not stop it. We have succeeded in slowing the spread to the point where health are facilities are not being overwhelmed. And that's all the masks, social distancing, etc. were intended to achieve.


----------



## 1d10t

Current data suggests that herd immunity, without a vaccine, may be a myth because anti-body effectiveness may be gone at 3/4 months, especially in people with less severe or no symptoms. Slowing the spread also saved lives because it gave the science and medical communities more time to understand the implications of the disease and come up with treatments. That also includes ramping up production of things like remdesivir. PPE is still in short supply in places and getting worse. There is NO WAY we should be caught with our pants down a second time on this, but, there ya go.


----------



## ibglowin

Not going to happen.









We're wasting time talking about herd immunity | CNN


William Haseltine writes that we should not waste time trying to build herd immunity against Covid-19, because it's unlikely we will ever be able to achieve it. New research on the development and decline of Covid antibodies and a wealth of epidemiological evidence on coronaviruses as a whole...




www.cnn.com








bstnh1 said:


> I look at it this way .... the more people that get the virus, the closer we get to herd immunity.


----------



## ZebraB

Only a few months of antibody life does not bode well for a vaccine effectiveness over the long haul. A vaccine is designed for you to create the antibodies to protect yourself. Will everyone in the world need a vaccine every few months? How could we produce that much for everyone to get?

Biologics that they are trying to create are the antibodies needed to protect for ones that do not create antibodies from the vaccine. (Just like the flu vaccines are not 100% effective). Biologics are expensive and tricky production so it is unlikely that biologics can be produced for the entire world prophylacticly . Scary stuff if those studies about short timespan for antibodies hold true. 

I know that there are a few drugs currently on the market that could potentially help that are being tested to help reduce the symptoms. That may be our best bet if antibodies are short term.


----------



## GreginND

My guess is that drugs that activate T-cell responses will be an important part of the solution.


----------



## 1d10t

Yeah. There are warnings that the first solutions will be way better than nothing but far from perfect. I'll be happy with something good enough to let me hug my grand daughters again.


----------



## ZebraB

I had to go looking for a study on this topic 



https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.092619v2.full.pdf



"Here we report on 149 COVID-19 convalescent individuals. Plasmas collected an average of 39 days after the onset of symptoms had variable half-maximal neutralizing titers ranging from undetectable in 33% to below 1:1000 in 79% while only 1% showed titers >1:5000. (". thus the lack of long term immunity). but.......

"Nevertheless, rare but recurring RBD-specific antibodies with potent antiviral activity were found in all individuals tested, suggesting that a vaccine designed to elicit such antibodies could be broadly effective"


----------



## Kraffty

this article popped up on my news today, sounds like a promising start...









Moderna coronavirus vaccine shows 'promising' safety and immune response results in published Phase 1 study, but more research is needed | CNN


A Covid-19 vaccine developed by the biotechnology company Moderna in partnership with the National Institutes of Health has been found to induce immune responses in all of the volunteers who received it in a Phase 1 study.




www.cnn.com


----------



## ibglowin

We are in the same boat. We missed our grand daughters 2nd birthday in early March. Normally we would be out for a visit every 3-4 months and its starting to feel like she is growing up in front of us on a phone video chat. Not the same as being there. 



1d10t said:


> I'll be happy with something good enough to let me hug my grand daughters again.


----------



## Chuck E

My Covid began on March 14th and lasted until April 13th, then 21 more days under "house arrest." I was hospitalized for 13 day, 7 in ICU. When I left the hospital, I had about 60% of my lung capacity. I was terrified that my lungs would never heal. 

Since then, my lungs have regained most of their function. My most recent CT scan showed most of the disease has "resolved itself." I have the anti-bodies, and I am considering donating my plasma. My pulmonologist has been able to fine tune the therapies they use in the hospital. He has not lost a patient in the last month. The current best practice has patients lying prone, high O2, high dose steroids for inflammatory response control, and convalescent plasma. 

Since this virus is a member of common cold family of virii, it is unlikely we will get a vaccine that works for years. The virus mutates pretty rapidly too. I don't believe we will achieve herd immunity, but 99.5% of us will not have a severe case of complications either.


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> Since then, my lungs have regained most of their function.



So glad to hear that you are recovering your lung function. Great news.


----------



## Johnd

Newlyretired said:


> Deleted post was quoted here.



LOL, you haven't hurt my feelings, just aroused my distaste for intolerance. Whether you are right or wrong is immaterial, everyone is entitled to an opinion. If you can't let others have an opinion without feeling like theirs threatens "the health of myself, my family, friends and coworker", all the while offering exactly zero facts or evidence, perhaps your skin is a bit too thin. That poster is no more threat to your world than I am.

When someone has a different opinion, it's unhealthy, unproductive, and useless to hate, insult, and slander. This is a huge problem in our society today. Try to learn to let others have their opinion, disagree respectfully if you so choose, and realize that no one is out to get you.


----------



## Kraffty

"When someone has a different opinion, it's unhealthy, unproductive, and useless to hate, insult, and slander. This is a huge problem in our society today. Try to learn to let others have their opinion, disagree respectfully if you so choose, and realize that no one is out to get you."

Well said John, the overwhelming respect that most people show each other here is one of the things I love about this site. There are plenty of sites where you can go to shout names at anyone who doesn't share your exact thoughts.
Thanks


----------



## sour_grapes

bstnh1 said:


> I look at it this way .... the more people that get the virus, the closer we get to herd immunity. All the precautions taken from day one were only intended to slow the spread, not stop it. We have succeeded in slowing the spread to the point where health are facilities are not being overwhelmed. And that's all the masks, social distancing, etc. were intended to achieve.




Let's talk about herd immunity. It is not a simple concept, it turns out.

Let me preface this post by acknowledging that I have agreed (in this very thread!) with the notion that all we were trying to do was "flatten the curve." To allow us to manage the disease without overwhelming our healthcare system, and to buy us time to develop better therapeutics, and possibly a vaccine. And those things are very important! But we must think a little more carefully about herd immunity, and what it means in the context of a novel disease.

The definition of herd immunity really boils down to having a R0 (or some people write Rt) of less than one. That is, for every person that is infected, they go on to infect fewer than one more person on average. Under those conditions, the disease eventually dies out. If R0 > 1, the disease spreads.

But our _behavior_ influences the value of R0. I suspect that most of us have been thinking about "herd immunity" only under the conditions that we lived life, say, last year. Under those conditions, estimates are that something like 70% of people had to have immunity to Covid to achieve R0 < 1. (I should note that we don't even know yet if people who recover from the disease gain immunity, or how long it lasts if they do, let alone whether a vaccine will be developed.)

However, under a different set of behaviors, the transmission rate is different. So mask-wearing, hand-washing, etc., are not just buying us time, they are altering the dynamics of the spread of the disease, that is, they are altering the threshold when "herd immunity" is achieved. Of course, the "herd" is a different herd than we are used to; our behaviors would be different. But we as a society could _choose_ to be part of a herd where the disease doesn't spread as rapidly (at some social costs), and the herd immunity threshold is lower. Or we could choose to be part of a herd where the disease spreads rapidly, the threshold of herd immunity is much higher, and many more people are sickened or die.

Want to be convinced that the foregoing statements are true? With the framework discussed above in mind, compare these curves. I am not aware of any _intrinsic_ differences between the US and the EU that would explain these different outcomes.


----------



## Chuck E

@sour_grapes 
I think your post is correct. Your graph can be explained by the amount of tests being conducted in the US. For the data to be useful, I think age has to be accounted for. Younger than 40, your chance of death by Covid is drastically lower.


----------



## ibglowin

These are trying times for many of us. No insults allowed here folks. Play nice or you'll be be placed in a WMT 14 day quarantine.....


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> Your graph can be explained by the amount of tests being conducted in the US.



No, no it cannot. Deaths don't care about tests. And the positivity rate in the US is higher than the EU.


----------



## Johnd

ibglowin said:


> These are trying times for many of us. No insults allowed here folks. Play nice or you'll be be placed in a WMT 14 day quarantine.....



Can I get a WMT mask to use during my quarantine????


----------



## ibglowin

Paul,

Can you explain this part of the graph?

What happened in both the EU and US to cause that?


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> Paul,
> 
> Can you explain this part of the graph?
> 
> What happened in both the EU and US to cause that?
> View attachment 63493



No, I cannot fully, but I can shed some light on it.

All of the data show a strong hebdomadal (weekly) variation, surely an artifact of human weekly activity cycles. Accordingly, showing a 1-week average is the best choice, as it exactly washes out this artifact. For both the US and the EU, there was a large, one-day increase in reported deaths. I do not know this, but I suspect that probably some batch of deaths was post-facto attributed to Covid. That spike then remains in the averaged record for exactly a week. Here are the underlying daily data, where you can see the one-day spikes:


----------



## sour_grapes

Johnd said:


> Can I get a WMT mask to use during my quarantine????



Which do you prefer:


----------



## NoQuarter

Does that second one there have an ear strap option? I don't want to hold it there all day....


----------



## Johnd

Personally, I try to look at the situation very simplistically. According to the Johns Hopkins tracking, the following numbers are being reported:

Global Infections - 13,360,401 human beings 579,546 have died 4.34% death rate
US Infections - 3,434,636 human beings 136,463 have died 3.97% death rate

Number of viruses cured by humanity - none that I could find (cures, not vaccines or treatment regimens, cures)

Speculation is that it will take 12 - 18 months to develop a sound vaccine. Even when it is, some will get it, some will think it's a government conspiracy, or a left wing conspiracy, or a right wine conspiracy, or a violation of their rights, or aimed at some other target, and won't partake. This virus will be around for quite some time to come.

I live in Louisiana, early in cases and pretty hard hit. We were early on the state government mandated shutdown, social distancing, etc. train. Within a few weeks, the downward trend in new infections was evident, despite increased testing. Conclusion: Washing your hands, staying away from places and people who may be infected drastically changes the rate at which the disease spreads. We flattened the curve. Not rocket science.

When we went into Phase I, opened most businesses, low capacities at restaurants, etc., cases increased lightly, but were manageable, those who still limited their activities, practiced social distancing and personal cleanliness did fine.

Phase II doubled the capacities in restaurants, and worst of all, opened bars. Since then, we've seen skyrocketing cases, the majority of them in 18 - 40 year olds, and hospitalizations increasing at an alarming rate. The young folks aren't getting terribly ill, but they're bringing the virus home to older folks who, statistically, have more serious issues. One region of our state is nearing hospital capacity. Our governor issued a mandatory facemask policy this past Saturday. You'd think he ordered mass sterilizations from all of the uproar. We'll see in a few weeks if it indeed helps. I choose to comply.

Personally, I don't put my family at risk. We don't partake in high risk activities, we cancelled our annual family trip to Florida, we don't eat at restaurants, we wear masks when we (rarely) go in public places around other people. All of our parents are in their 70's and still alive, we'd like it to stay that way. This is our choice. If it provides one break in the transmission chain that saves one life, whether it's someone I know or not, it's worth the effort to me.

No one has to do what I do, some do more, some do less. Some don't care because they think they won't get really ill. Some want to pass laws to make everyone do what they think is right. Some want no rules so we can get it over with quickly. I have no disdain for anyone who handles this or any other situation differently than me, whether I agree or not. Avoiding a few things I like to do, slopping a little hand sanitizer on and wearing a mask occasionally just isn't that big of a sacrifice for me, there are lots of other things I've learned to enjoy in the interim.

In the end, in this country, for the most part, we are pretty free to do what we like. Freedom runs rampant in this great land of ours, and I thank God for that. It will probably prolong our exit from this situation.

Off my soap box. Stay safe, make and drink wine, and be smart. Cheers!!


----------



## Johnd

sour_grapes said:


> Which do you prefer:


I like the second one, but would request a strap to keep the wine engaged with my mouth...............


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> Paul,
> 
> Can you explain this part of the graph?
> 
> What happened in both the EU and US to cause that?
> View attachment 63493



I tracked down the US spike. On that day (June 25), New Jersey reported ~1800 cases that previously had been deemed as "probable" Covid cases as Covid cases. I don't know the origin of the EU spike, but I imagine it was something similar.


----------



## 1d10t

Now that it is known that asymptomatic people can spread the disease it should be a wake up call to everyone. This surprising development really changed the dynamic about what we collectively understood about the disease. This isn't hard and making a political football/statement out of this is just simply mind boggling.

But, let's look at what kind of things we are up against. True story explaining to a customer why their refrigerator doesn't work the way she expects it to. Me after getting nowhere after 10 minutes of trying to explain the how and why and then finally:

Me: That would violate the laws of physics.
Customer: God damned government ruins everything.
THAT she accepted so I scooted. People make up in their minds what they WANT to be true and will manage to find others to help them cement that into 'fact'. Social media has only made it worse. Far worse in some cases.

*Coronavirus updates: CDC chief says masks could halt outbreak in 4-6 weeks;*

*








Coronavirus updates: CDC chief says masks could halt outbreak in 4-6 weeks; more stimulus checks possible; vaccine candidate shows promise


California updated its testing guidelines. Best Buy and some Starbucks will require face masks. France plans to reopen school. Here's the latest news.



www.usatoday.com




*


----------



## Chuck E

Wrong thread


----------



## Kraffty

True story from this last weekend about people believing what they choose to believe. A friend of my wife's who's not too bright, but also not a dumb-dumb, read or heard an antidotal story about 5 girls who attended a party where there were Covid infected guests. Three of the girls smoked pot while two did not. The 2 who didn't became infected while the other 3 did not. My wife's friend is now convinced pot will keep you from catching the virus (she had never smoked in the past) and had her husband round some up so she could smoke a joint in order to be safer. At least she is still continuing to follow the standard guidelines strictly which, if she continues to be virus free, will probably only convince her more that the pot protected her.

It's going to be hard to keep a straight face whenever I see her face to face in the future, especially if she brings this up in anyway.


----------



## 1d10t

PolitiFact - Might cannabis prevent COVID-19? Preliminary study provides only scant evidence


Weed preventing COVID-19? That high hope seemed to rise from this headline: "Cannabis May Stop Coronavirus From Infectin




www.politifact.com


----------



## ibglowin

Probably night a good time to light up (anything) since CV likes to attack the lungs.

Go for the edibles though. If anything you'll sleep a little better!


----------



## ceeaton

ibglowin said:


> Probably night a good time to light up (anything) since CV likes to attack the lungs.
> 
> Go for the edibles though. If anything you'll sleep a little better!


Now have you tried those? If I act kooky enough I can get a prescription for that in our state. I'd love to sleep better, but I can only imagine the after effects the next morning. I think I'll stick to my morning walk regiment, LOL, seems to be working so far.


----------



## sour_grapes

I just came across this statement (really, a series of tweets) from the governor of Mississippi, (Tate Reeves, R). I think this was well said:

"
1) "Let's talk about herd immunity. I've listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I'm not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:"
2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."
3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"
4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."
5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."
6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."
7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!"
"


----------



## Chuck E

That's the way a governor should respond to the people. Hearing a "please wear a mask," is refreshing after being mandated here in Illinois.


----------



## sour_grapes

I don't like wearing pants. I would prefer the freedom to go buck naked if I wished. Yet somehow, society has mandated that I need to wear pants _every damn time_ I go out in public, or face legal consequences. It seems like it has always been this way.


----------



## 1d10t

GreginND said:


> My guess is that drugs that activate T-cell responses will be an important part of the solution.


On last night's news there was a blurb about the Oxford vaccine having a T-cell response and potentially lasting years. I think Moderna did say theirs kicks up a much higher anti-body response than recovered patients show so should last longer, but it sounds like it could be two shots a month apart to get to a year's level of protection with theirs. Also injection reactions seem higher than normal. Going to be interesting to see what vaccines become available, and when, and where and if we have to go out and start making 'informed decisions' on which one we ultimately get?


----------



## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> Which do you prefer:




The girl.


----------



## joeswine

like the glass better ??however ??


----------



## GaDawg




----------



## ZebraB

I have been trying to find apple cider vinegar in my local store to cook with for weeks. Anyone else noticing the same?


----------



## mainshipfred

ZebraB said:


> I have been trying to find apple cider vinegar in my local store to cook with for weeks. Anyone else noticing the same?



Fruit Flies?


----------



## joeswine

yesterday we got word down the line that heating and air conditioning plants down on the border are closing down and that shipments of parts for hvac industry coming from Japan,china and the like are shutting down which means if your in need of a furnace or heat pump don't wait I'm already waiting for a customer 2 weeks for a heat pump condenser, in 32 years of doing this,,*this is a first*.


----------



## GaDawg

sour_grapes said:


> I don't like wearing pants. I would prefer the freedom to go buck naked if I wished. Yet somehow, society has mandated that I need to wear pants _every damn time_ I go out in public, or face legal consequences. It seems like it has always been this way.


Mask protect my lungs, just like pants protect my eyes


----------



## ibglowin

Things are looking up in the great State of Texas.........


----------



## Boatboy24

ZebraB said:


> I have been trying to find apple cider vinegar in my local store to cook with for weeks. Anyone else noticing the same?



Back in March/April it was hard to come by. But it's been readily available here since.


----------



## Boatboy24

joeswine said:


> yesterday we got word down the line that heating and air conditioning plants down on the border are closing down and that shipments of parts for hvac industry coming from Japan,china and the like are shutting down which means if your in need of a furnace or heat pump don't wait I'm already waiting for a customer 2 weeks for a heat pump condenser, in 32 years of doing this,,*this is a first*.



Thanks for the heads up. We are due for our 'summer inspection' but have been holding off due to COVID and my lack of employment. Hoping the latter will be remedied soon and that is high on the list of things to do the moment I've got an offer in hand.


----------



## ibglowin

Quite the tale here......



https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/21/arizona-struggles-neighboring-new-mexico-found-more-cautious-path-sustained-growth/


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> Quite the tale here......
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/21/arizona-struggles-neighboring-new-mexico-found-more-cautious-path-sustained-growth/



I hate the Post. Can't view a damn thing without subscribing.


----------



## Kraffty

That’s odd opened fine for me. Southwest thing.......


----------



## ibglowin

Magic man.......



Boatboy24 said:


> I hate the Post. Can't view a damn thing without subscribing.


----------



## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> That’s odd opened fine for me. Southwest thing.......



I suspect that, like Jim, I go to WashPo enough that they "cut me off."


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> Magic man.......


----------



## Boatboy24

Our schools just announced a change of course. We had been asked to choose between a 2-day/week in school option vs all online. Parents voted 60/40% in favor of 2 days in school. Those who chose not to go would be able to do 100% online. Teachers voted 48% to go to school for two days. As I expected, it was just announced that we'll be 100% online. Mixed emotions on this - especially in regards to my oldest, who is starting middle school. Fortunately, it seems our summer baseball season has gone well (still just shy of two weeks to go), so I'm hopeful that fall baseball will be in full, COVID compliant, swing. So there's at least one opportunity for in-person socialization and formation of friendships.


----------



## 1d10t

Boatboy24 said:


> I hate the Post. Can't view a damn thing without subscribing.


You have to 'toss your cookies'. 

Seriously. I have my browsers set to clear cookies when I close them. Sometimes I have to go and clear a site, like the Post, to read something.


----------



## ibglowin

Somehow between Mrs IB and myself we have paid subscriptions to:

LA Times
Seattle Times
WA Post
NY Times
San Antonio Express News
ABQ Journal

Doing our part to keep the journalist employed and the press "free".


----------



## 1d10t

I found this an interesting read and it so far seems to be under the radar.









Potent Neutralizing Antibodies Isolated From COVID-19 Patients – Could Be Mass-Produced to Suppress Virus


Researchers at Columbia University Irving Medical Center have isolated antibodies from several COVID-19 patients that, to date, are among the most potent in neutralizing the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These antibodies could be produced in large quantities by pharmaceutical companies to treat patients, esp



scitechdaily.com


----------



## ZebraB

joeswine said:


> yesterday we got word down the line that heating and air conditioning plants down on the border are closing down and that shipments of parts for hvac industry coming from Japan,china and the like are shutting down which means if your in need of a furnace or heat pump don't wait I'm already waiting for a customer 2 weeks for a heat pump condenser, in 32 years of doing this,,*this is a first*.




Yes. I live near Pugent Sound and when Covid hit China there was no real shipping activity that I saw . Typically you can see cargo ships most of the times. I has increased some just as seeing a few plane going to land at SEA, but neither are normal. We were talking to our boat mechanic and he stated that motors are hard to come by these days. I think we are going to find out the hard way how much we rely on the Asian countries.





__





COVID-19: Alliances outline extensive blank sailings for Q3


Continued aggressive capacity reductions in major container trades are a clear indication of low demand expectations from carriers for the next few months, and possibly into the trans-Pacific peak season.




www.joc.com


----------



## Boatboy24

Rumor mill from my sister in MD is they are going to be rolling back by at least one phase. I suspect Virginia is strongly considering doing the same. Here in the DC suburbs of Northern Virginia, things have remained stable, or gotten even better. The rest of the state is a different story. OBX vacation in a few weeks and I'm closely monitoring North Carolina. A few states further north are already mandating 14 day quarantine for visitors from VA.


----------



## vineyarddog

I have a lake house in MD and in March they prohibited renting houses — during the time of March - May 15 there were only 3 confirmed cases in the county.. As of May 15th, in coordination with Phase One, they lifted the ban and people were again able to rent houses on the lake.. The county just confirmed its 34th case.


----------



## Boatboy24

vineyarddog said:


> I have a lake house in MD and in March they prohibited renting houses — during the time of March - May 15 there were only 3 confirmed cases in the county.. As of May 15th, in coordination with Phase One, they lifted the ban and people were again able to rent houses on the lake.. The county just confirmed its 34th case.



Where in MD? I have friends w/ places in Deep Creek - most spent the initial phases of the shutdown up at the Lake.


----------



## vineyarddog

Boatboy24 said:


> Where in MD? I have friends w/ places in Deep Creek - most spent the initial phases of the shutdown up at the Lake.


Nice, that’s where my place is. I spent a few weeks there working remotely and it was great. Just about 2 hours from home so it’s nice to load up the car full of groceries and drive up during the week. Garage to garage — never have to be out in public!


----------



## Rice_Guy

Business is good in 2020; 
reading one of the trade journals they are pointing out that “off site” alcohol purchases were up 25% in the first week of April 2020 versus 2019.


----------



## sour_grapes

I am going to take the (relatively) good news where I can find it. It really looks to me like AZ is on the downward trend, and I have my fingers crossed for FL, too. (These are not normalized to population.)


----------



## sour_grapes

And again, no, it is not due to increased testing. (The dashed line is what you would expect if positivity rates remained what they were in early June. Moreover, you would expect that more testing would lead to a _decreased_ positivity rate if all else was equal.)



> The average number of tests conducted nationwide has grown by 80 percent since early June, to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215 percent in the same period.


----------



## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> And again, no, it is not due to increased testing. (The dashed line is what you would expect if positivity rates remained what they were in early June. Moreover, you would expect that more testing would lead to a _decreased_ positivity rate if all else was equal.)
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 63858




The positivity rate is on the rise here in VA. What I really, really would like to know is the 'nature' of these positives. How many are actually symptomatic?


----------



## ibglowin

I found this interactive map to be very enlightening especially now. It is updated daily. This is a LANL spinoff company. Usually a couple guys with some nice IP get together and take an "entrepreneurial leave".

You can zoom in to your hearts content and at the click up a button get all the CV-19 data you really need. At a glance you can see just how "hot" the hot spots are.









COVID-19 Map | Infections For Each County In The USA


Estimated actual infectious cases per capita calculated from confirmed cases reported in the past 7 days (NYT) and test positivity (the COVID Tracking Project).



www.descarteslabs.com


----------



## ibglowin

So far Miami-Dade is "winning"...........


----------



## Kraffty

Why does looking at new mexico on that map make the lyrics "clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right" pop up in my brain.......


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> I found this interactive map to be very enlightening especially now. It is updated daily. This is a LANL spinoff company. Usually a couple guys with some nice IP get together and take an "entrepreneurial leave".
> 
> You can zoom in to your hearts content and at the click up a button get all the CV-19 data you really need. At a glance you can see just how "hot" the hot spots are.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> COVID-19 Map | Infections For Each County In The USA
> 
> 
> Estimated actual infectious cases per capita calculated from confirmed cases reported in the past 7 days (NYT) and test positivity (the COVID Tracking Project).
> 
> 
> 
> www.descarteslabs.com



Boy, all of that talk back in March about 'Maybe the heat and sunshine will kill it..." didn't turn out to be true. In fact, looking at the map, it seems the heat and sunshine actually incubate it!


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> Boy, all of that talk back in March about 'Maybe the heat and sunshine will kill it..." didn't turn out to be true. In fact, looking at the map, it seems the heat and sunshine actually incubate it!



Yes, but you are probably aware of the other interpretation: it spreads so much better indoors. The theory is that if people in the south are driven inside due to A/C, they are more likely to spread it. The bad news is obvious for those of us in the north come winter.


----------



## berrycrush

Check this out:
http://covid-19map.us/


----------



## Kraffty

On the good news that our total new cases and hospitalizations are dropping in AZ I'll post something more lighthearted.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Most probable number
when I was a kid working in the micro lab we ran a serial dilution test for E. coli, ,, counted the number of positive in each dilution, ,, went to a table and then gave the MPN for the bug. I wish this was calculated for covid in every county in the US.

ex,,, if all US meat plants with 3000 employees are hot spots the covid MPN was one in 3K
if one person in the church cohort has it let’s see,,, one in 200
if the wife’s school district had ten in June, ,,, twenty one in July and ,,, August maybe double the risk is N in N hundred. and so on. ,,,, risk day by day is a numbers game, and we all live it deciding what neighborhood is OK or to toss out the canned product that is bulging

Where this all leads is it is coming will it be this week or next year? ,,, This feels kinda like going to the dentist.


----------



## sour_grapes

sour_grapes said:


> Well, I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like my father-in-law is going to make it!  He is in a nursing home in another state (Missouri), and slowly but surely Covid swept through the facility. About half of the residents got it (as well as some staff). Of the residents who got it, about 25% have died, and about half have already recovered, and 25% still sick. It looks like my F-I-L has now joined the "recovered" group. (I want to post a celebratory smilie here, but it seems disrespectful to the ones who didn't make it.)
> 
> Still no idea when we will be able to see him...



Sadly, my father-in-law passed away this afternoon. This won't count as a Covid death, and nor should it, but it certainly didn't help. He did recover from the disease, but it was sort of downhill from there. His decline (already in progress) accelerated quickly after the bout with Covid, and he entered hospice a bit over a week ago. We never got to see him again. Godspeed, Steve!


----------



## ibglowin

So very sorry to hear this Paul. Sincere condolences to you and the family. 



sour_grapes said:


> Sadly, my father-in-law passed away this afternoon.


----------



## Boatboy24

Very sorry to hear, Paul. My thoughts are with you, Mrs SG, and the family.


----------



## Chuck E

My condolences to you and your family.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Sorry to hear that Paul


----------



## cmason1957

Sorry to hear of your loss Paul. I just found out my oldest daughter has been diagnosed with covid, but nasal swab. She is 36. Having some breathing issues, high temps, but doing okay. She was supposed to start the new school year on Monday 24, I suppose that won't be happening for her.


----------



## knockabout

sour_grapes said:


> Sadly, my father-in-law passed away this afternoon. This won't count as a Covid death, and nor should it, but it certainly didn't help. He did recover from the disease, but it was sort of downhill from there. His decline (already in progress) accelerated quickly after the bout with Covid, and he entered hospice a bit over a week ago. We never got to see him again. Godspeed, Steve!


So sorry for your loss.


----------



## Johnd

sour_grapes said:


> Sadly, my father-in-law passed away this afternoon. This won't count as a Covid death, and nor should it, but it certainly didn't help. He did recover from the disease, but it was sort of downhill from there. His decline (already in progress) accelerated quickly after the bout with Covid, and he entered hospice a bit over a week ago. We never got to see him again. Godspeed, Steve!


 
Very sorry for your loss Paul.


----------



## GaDawg

So sorry for your loss Paul


----------



## Kraffty

Paul, this seems so cruel considering the whole situation. My sympathies to you and your family.
Mike


----------



## Mcjeff

sour_grapes said:


> Sadly, my father-in-law passed away this afternoon.


Sorry to hear about your loss.


----------



## ZebraB

SG: Sorry to hear about your loss. These times make it harder.

cmason1957: Hope you daughter will be ok.


----------



## cmason1957

ZebraB said:


> cmason1957: Hope you daughter will be ok.



Thanks, talked go her today and she said she actually got up and ate something. Then went back to bed. But I think that it's certainly sounding good. Needless to say, my wife and I aren't going over to visit her.


----------



## Dennis Griffith

To SG: Sorry to hear of this. We lost my wife's father in late April under much the same conditions. He was 90. My wife still deals with the emotions of not being allowed to be there for the last couple of months of his life. The best she was allowed was to see him through a window and talk with him on the phone. The sad part of this whole business is seeing people die alone.


----------



## David Violante

Paul, so sorry to hear about your loss~


----------



## joeswine

Sorry to hear of your loss..


----------



## sour_grapes

Thank you all.


----------



## Paulietivo

@sour_grapes I feel your pain. I also lost my father in law last Friday 8/14/20 to a sudden heart attack. He was only 66 and had just retired from Amtrak after 30 years. Steve was allergic to most things red like cherries so he mostly enjoyed chardonnay. He influenced my winemaking because I started making whites so he could enjoy them with us. He was meticulous with everything he did. His garden had blueprints measured to scale and had just hand built 3 arbors for his garden, ours and his sons. I am going to put a picture of his garden as my chardonnay label and call it 3 Arbors in his memory. Salute!


----------



## sour_grapes

So sorry, Paulie. You lost him way too young. I wish you and your wife's family peace.

Non excidet!


----------



## Boatboy24

Very sorry to hear, Paulie.


----------



## RichardC

In my country, the ministry of health has been doing as good a job as they can, and recently we've moved into the 'community spread' phase. I am however completely baffled by their recent trend of continuing to recommend that people cough or sneeze into a tissue or the crook of their elbow. One flyer said NOT TO cough or sneeze into a mask.. SERIOUSLY?? with recommendations like that, I'm properly scared now.


----------



## RichardC

Please accept my condolences sour_grapes


----------



## BernardSmith

My condolences to those who have recently lost loved ones.


----------



## BernardSmith

RichardC said:


> In my country, the ministry of health has been doing as good a job as they can, and recently we've moved into the 'community spread' phase. I am however completely baffled by their recent trend of continuing to recommend that people cough or sneeze into a tissue or the crook of their elbow. One flyer said NOT TO cough or sneeze into a mask.. SERIOUSLY?? with recommendations like that, I'm properly scared now.



I suspect that virus dimensions are such that for most masks the fibers will allow any and all viruses in a sneeze (or hard cough) to be expelled through the mask so it may not be so silly to suggest that folk sneeze and cough into the sleeve at their upper arm. The cloth and arm might capture much of the viral material. 
That doesn't mean that masks don't help protect both the wearer and those the wearer comes into contact with. Normal inhaling and exhaling through the mask will not have the explosive force a sneeze or cough has and while the fibers don't form a net small enough to capture virus material the net they do form is likely to prevent enough virus from being expelled into the surrounding environment through normal breathing, which is precisely what the facial barrier is supposed to do - together with inhibiting the wearer from touching their nose or mouth and so introducing viral material to exactly the locations this virus needs if it is to access lungs and reproduce.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

Paulietivo said:


> @sour_grapes I feel your pain. I also lost my father in law last Friday 8/14/20 to a sudden heart attack. He was only 66 and had just retired from Amtrak after 30 years. Steve was allergic to most things red like cherries so he mostly enjoyed chardonnay. He influenced my winemaking because I started making whites so he could enjoy them with us. He was meticulous with everything he did. His garden had blueprints measured to scale and had just hand built 3 arbors for his garden, ours and his sons. I am going to put a picture of his garden as my chardonnay label and call it 3 Arbors in his memory. Salute!
> [/QUOT
> Sorry for your loss. Your label will make a lovely tribute to the man.......................................Dizzy


----------



## DizzyIzzy

RichardC said:


> In my country, the ministry of health has been doing as good a job as they can, and recently we've moved into the 'community spread' phase. I am however completely baffled by their recent trend of continuing to recommend that people cough or sneeze into a tissue or the crook of their elbow. One flyer said NOT TO cough or sneeze into a mask.. SERIOUSLY?? with recommendations like that, I'm properly scared now.


What country do you live in?......................................Dizzy


----------



## RichardC

Dizzy, Caribbean: Trinidad and Tobago ( one country, two islands) We have only started community spread a couple weeks now, so the lag time had people very complacent and as with most populations, there is a wide range of 'compliance to common sense' so we may be paying the price now.

Bernard, I understand your point a little, and it would make a little more sense if long sleeves were common, and the ministry specified to remove mask for sneezes only, which tend to be 'wetter' and more powerful, than coughs.
I sneezed and coughed down the neck of my t-shirt pre covid, which to me, provides a much larger surface to catch particles, and does not itself come into contact with other people or surfaces.

With a mask on. Most instinctive responses to irritation is consciously surppressed. Haha.


----------



## joeswine

none of it makes any sense to me you're right if you're wrong is wrong if you're right they still don't know what they're doing.


----------



## David Violante

Paulie, so sorry to hear about your loss... I love the idea of 3 Arbors... peace to you and your family~


----------



## Old Corker

Just saw these posts this morning. So sorry for your losses Paul and Paulie. So much of this is difficult to make sense of.


----------



## Kraffty

It's been a while since seeing a post here, I suppose we're all becoming a bit complacent, I know I'm not as careful as I was a month or two ago. I'm thinking the rising numbers after a few months of success at lowering them proves that point. Anyway we've been out and about and sightseeing over the past week, wearing our masks and trying to use common sense the whole time and I just wanted to share a pic and some brief history about a building we visited up in Jerome. It's called the Liberty Movie Theatre and was built in 1918. It wasn't opened until 1919 due to the Spanish Flu Epidemic. When it finally opened it was incredibly successful, even paid for itself in one year. While it closed as a movie theater in 1929 because the owners didn't want to invest in sound equipment for the modern Talkies the building is still standing and has served a number if different functions over the years. I guess that's just a really long way of saying we'll eventually make it through this and get back to a normal life, in the mean time try to stay diligent.


----------



## 1d10t

The number of active cases per 100K doesn't sound scary. Then you see the toll it is taking on hospital workers and the families of those that did suffer the worst of it. People still in financial distress. When you are fortunate enough that it hasn't encroached closely into YOUR life past the stage of inconvenience, you are truly fortunate.


----------



## ZebraB

On the lighter side..... SNL last Saturday had a skit on the social aspect of Covid. It is funny and is not political


----------



## Rice_Guy

COVID is getting personal 
* the brother in law tested positive a week back, he has fever but mostly OK
* his wife came in positive three days after
* the nephew (19 year old) feels fine,,, and continues to go to work,,, and pal with his girl friend,,, and live with his parents,,, BUT doesn’t want to get tested

_and the wife wonders how to do Thanksgiving for all 28 of the family?_


----------



## joeswine

I've been to Jerome need artistic community, really 
Up there in the montains of Arizona.


----------



## GaDawg

IMHO It would be a great time to bring back drive-in movies.


----------



## Kraffty

We’ve had pop up drive in events here lately. We also have a series of drive in concerts that have been really successful.


----------



## 1d10t

I got duped by click bait on an article mentioning vaccine efficacy percentage in the title. Of course, none was given in the article. Blind studies means no one really knows yet. Complete fails would probably be weeded out early though because they would already have the requisite number of positive case to start unmasking the data.


----------



## GreginND

So, North Dakota has been in a very bad spot for a while now. A couple weeks ago our cases per 100,000 were the highest in the world. Our hospitals are full and the White House even sent Dr. Brix over last week to slap our governor and said Bismarck was the worst place she had seen for safety compliance. I have friends right now in their 30's and 40's hospitalized and some in ICU. The lack of beds has caused problems for people with this and other emergencies having to go even out of state to get care. Yet, people still deny it. It is getting really frustrating.


----------



## 1d10t

It seems the vaccine trials are going to take a little longer. Could it be that people volunteering for the studies are more likely to be careful to start with so getting to the requisite number of infections is taking longer? Let's face it. I'm willing to bet zero anti-vaxxers have signed up. COVID deniers? I'm sure they didn't sign up either. Probably a lot of overlap in that group. The people conducting the research should have set up shop for the Sturgis rally.


----------



## Kraffty

Those are scary numbers, No and So seem to be at the worst in the states right now. We're pretty much back to hunkering down and only heading out for groceries and post office runs. Stay safe!


----------



## ibglowin

We are right behind you. So much misinformation coming from covidiots of all shapes and sizes these days. It really is a test of Darwin's Theory. I feel sorry for the elderly who stayed home, stayed safe only to get sick and pass from a younger family member who brought it home because they didn't think it was serious or worse because they heard "we are rounding the corner"..........






GreginND said:


> So, North Dakota has been in a very bad spot for a while now.


----------



## Boatboy24

Things in Virginia are on the rise, although only very slightly here in the Northern part of the state. Was starting to get comfortable in Sept and early October, but am wanting to start hunkering down again. In fact, going on a supply run tomorrow, probably start filling the freezer up again too. Baseball ends this weekend, so aside from grocery stores, we won't have much need to go out. Now if I could just keep my mother-in-law home and/or away from our house....


----------



## Kraffty

"Now if I could just keep my mother-in-law home and/or away from our house...."

Is that Covid related at all?


----------



## ibglowin

I figured out an easy way to do that a long time ago. You move 1000 miles away from the MIL!


----------



## ZebraB

ibglowin said:


> We are right behind you. So much misinformation coming from covidiots of all shapes and sizes these days. It really is a test of Darwin's Theory. I feel sorry for the elderly who stayed home, stayed safe only to get sick and pass from a younger family member who brought it home because they didn't think it was serious or worse because they heard "we are rounding the corner"..........
> 
> View attachment 67597


an old friend from high school brother died from Covid. The son was a bartender in CA and did not wear a mask. It did not really hit the kid much. Sis is really mad at the son. Family feud. really sad. It did not have to be this way. Especially when you look at the asian countries who have lower stats and their economy is growing.


----------



## Joel

I have been working through this since it started, just trying to stay sane, not letting it, the politics (NOT Talking about), or work to drive me crazy. It honestly reminds me of being in the navy underway, I wake up, get dressed, eat breakfast, go to work, eat lunch, eat dinner, have a watch, and work out/shower, stuck into the equation somewhere then off to bed for the next day for months at a time.


----------



## bstnh1

We're doing fine in NH. Cases are up a bit, but for the most part people are wearing masks and social distancing. Indoor dining has been open for a while now with either lower capacity or barriers between tables. But not many people are going inside. All stores are busy, but as I said, people are wearing masks and social distancing. Many stores are requiring masks to enter. Deaths have mostly been associated with long term care facilities. ICU occupancy is only 4%.


----------



## kmk

1d10t said:


> I got duped by click bait on an article mentioning vaccine efficacy percentage in the title. Of course, none was given in the article. Blind studies means no one really knows yet. Complete fails would probably be weeded out early though because they would already have the requisite number of positive case to start unmasking the data.


Actually a blind study means that the researchers do not know control from experimental subjects. It is one method of increasing validity of the study.


----------



## ibglowin

We are going back to full lockdown on Monday (11/16) for 2 weeks (at least).......




Things have gone from bad to worse the last 2-3 weeks. Restaurants are closed for any indoor or outdoor dining. Take out only. Beauty salons and barbershops are closed, liquor stores closed, Churches are closed (no in person services) only online services. Big box and grocery stores can operate at 25% capacity or 75 people max which means Walmart, Costco etc can only have 75 people in the store at a time. Grocery stores are the same so there will be lines a mile long and people will be hoarding once again so they don't have to come back or wait in a line for an hour to get inside.

Hospitals are almost at 100% capacity. If you go into the hospital due to Covid here in NM you have a 20% chance you will leave in a body bag. They interviewed a nurse yesterday in El Paso who was in tears. She said they lost every single patient they were caring for in the ICU on her shift.


----------



## Boatboy24

Things are tightening here in VA starting tomorrow as well. Bars and restaurants have to close early, liquor sales stop even earlier, capacity reduced, size of acceptable gatherings reduced. My nephew tested positive yesterday.


----------



## bstnh1

All these lockdowns makes me wonder what's supposed to happen to the virus during the lockdown. And when the lockdown is over, will the virus magically be gone? Europe had extensive lockdowns and all they did was delay the spread. People need to use common sense and wear a mask, social distance, use hand sanitizer, wash their hands and avoid large gatherings in confined spaces.


----------



## Boatboy24

bstnh1 said:


> All these lockdowns makes me wonder what's supposed to happen to the virus during the lockdown. And when the lockdown is over, will the virus magically be gone? Europe had extensive lockdowns and all they did was delay the spread. People need to use common sense and wear a mask, social distance, use hand sanitizer, wash their hands and avoid large gatherings in confined spaces.



It's just about slowing the spread so the health care facilities aren't overwhelmed. A slower spread just means there will be ICU space and ventilators available for those who need them, when they need them.


----------



## Rice_Guy

_MEANWHILE, , _the Wisconsin governor who has had his hand slapped with earlier orders being rescinded in the court system, so Wednesday he gave recommendations. ,,, the legislature needs to approve any legal mandate, the same legislature which set up districts in a way such that with a minority of state votes, they can hold a legislative majority.
_MEANWHILE_, , , the wife has had a student a day get quarantined due to covid in the family.
_and we can’t explain why, ,_ , Wisconsin shows up in the national news as a hot spot.

an interesting small study form Columbia Hospital this week. Kids response is explained . . . At what age will the antibody response turn more adult, , 18? , , 28?
Children Produce Different Antibodies in Response to SARS-CoV-2


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> We are going back to full lockdown on Monday (11/16) for 2 weeks (at least).......
> 
> View attachment 68263
> 
> 
> Things have gone from bad to worse the last 2-3 weeks. Restaurants are closed for any indoor or outdoor dining. Take out only. Beauty salons and barbershops are closed, liquor stores closed, Churches are closed (no in person services) only online services. Liquor stores closed. Big box and grocery stores can operate at 25% capacity or 75 people max which means Walmart, Costco etc can only have 75 people in the store at a time. Grocery stores are the same so there will be lines a mile long and people will be hoarding once again so they don't have to come back or wait in a line for an hour to get inside.
> 
> Hospitals are almost at 100% capacity. If you go into the hospital due to Covid here in NM you have a 20% chance you will leave in a body bag. They interviewed a nurse yesterday in El Paso who was in tears. She said they lost every single patient they were caring for in the ICU on her shift.



Yikes. 

The upper midwest is on fire, sadly. We are not going into lockdown, however. The state legislature has gotten the state supreme court to overturn essentially any action the governor takes. (Edited to add: Just as @Rice_Guy said just before me.)


----------



## GreginND

I can't believe that just a couple weeks ago when I thought things were bad, they were just beginning. Our hospitalizations have almost doubled, deaths have been increasing, our new cases are skyrocketing and North Dakota is essentially the highest per capita cases and deaths in the world right now. Our governor has only just last night instituted the first mask mandate. He has also told our health care workers they should still work even if they test positive but are so far asymptomatic! That is because we have a shortage of nurses right now. They are already pulling double shifts and being burnt out. This will only get worse before it gets better.


----------



## Ldypink

ibglowin said:


> We are going back to full lockdown on Monday (11/16) for 2 weeks (at least).......
> 
> View attachment 68263
> 
> 
> Things have gone from bad to worse the last 2-3 weeks. Restaurants are closed for any indoor or outdoor dining. Take out only. Beauty salons and barbershops are closed, liquor stores closed, Churches are closed (no in person services) only online services. Big box and grocery stores can operate at 25% capacity or 75 people max which means Walmart, Costco etc can only have 75 people in the store at a time. Grocery stores are the same so there will be lines a mile long and people will be hoarding once again so they don't have to come back or wait in a line for an hour to get inside.
> 
> Hospitals are almost at 100% capacity. If you go into the hospital due to Covid here in NM you have a 20% chance you will leave in a body bag. They interviewed a nurse yesterday in El Paso who was in tears. She said they lost every single patient they were caring for in the ICU on her shift.


That is So Very Sad!! Here in Pa, our # are 5-6k ... uneducated, Selfish people Still thinking it's a hoax!! Not wraring masks & actualliy Strutting around not wearing masks.


----------



## Kraffty

The results on the two vaccines that came out over the last couple of days is so encouraging. My wife and I will both be in line for it as soon as it becomes available to whatever group we fall into. I'm wondering what HighRisk groups include since they are said to get the vaccine first. Probably not the best time to be an Anti-Vaxer.


----------



## ibglowin

Kraffty said:


> The results on the two vaccines that came out over the last couple of days is so encouraging. My wife and I will both be in line for it as soon as it becomes available to whatever group we fall into. I'm wondering what HighRisk groups include since they are said to get the vaccine first. Probably not the best time to be an Anti-Vaxer.


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> View attachment 68321



So I'll be able to get mine once 80% of the population has theirs.  

Maybe there will be benefits to not being an early adopter on this one.


----------



## Kraffty

There is absolutely that concern, side effects include.........


----------



## Rice_Guy

as with past vaccines there will be an advantage in seeing what complications are, normal is to measure in # per 10,000 so the risk is in the range of taking other meds.


Boatboy24 said:


> So I'll be able to get mine once 80% of the population has theirs.
> Maybe there will be benefits to not being an early adopter on this one.


* the density estimate nation wide is almost one in three hundred are carriers
* the oldest daughter relates that covid has taken over 7th and 8th floor at the hospital, and they don’t want to give up more space since surgery’s bring in more money, ,, _AND_ most of the new covid patients are in their 30’s and 40’s, ,,, _KIDS _
* interesting what #3 son was told, ,,, a coworker has tested positive so he should stay home three or four days to wait for symptoms, ,,, given this he is home _BUT _has not gotten tested, ,,, gurr _KIDS _


----------



## ZebraB

The logistics of distribution this vaccine to the community at large will take a while. I would imagine that distribution will take place first and locations where they can treat a lot of people in one location (like large corporations, manufacturing plants, schools, etc ). So it likely will be later than "April 2021". There are a couple other mRNA vaccines that are in initial testing. One of which has lower dose level (likely fewer side effect) and doesn't have the freezer distribution requirements. So there is a good chance things will speed up in the 2nd half of 2021. These are a completely new class of immunization so being a little later might not be a bad thing. 

The biologic neutralizing antibody cocktails might also give some more freedom before the vaccine is widely available to individuals. Biologics are more difficult to manufacture to take prophylactically, but they can be a game changer if you get Covid. So when these get formal FDA approval and manufacturing ramps up, I will feel much more inclined to travel and lead a more normal life. Of course with masks to keep the spread down.










Lilly's neutralizing antibody bamlanivimab (LY-CoV555) receives FDA emergency use authorization for the treatment of recently diagnosed COVID-19 | Eli Lilly and Company


The Investor Relations website contains information about Eli Lilly and Company's business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.




investor.lilly.com













Regeneron's COVID-19 Outpatient Trial Prospectively Demonstrates that REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail Significantly Reduced Virus Levels and Need for Further Medical Attention | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.


TARRYTOWN, N.Y. , Oct. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Today's data, involving an additional 524 patients from the ongoing Phase 2/3 trial, provides definitive final virology results and meets the clinical endpoint of reducing medical visits Regeneron has shared these results with the U.S.




investor.regeneron.com


----------



## Rice_Guy

There is a real neat risk indicator out which goes county by county everyday to estimate the risk of contact with covid in a group.

In the micro lab we used to run _MOST PROBABLE NUMBER for E. coli._ Finally some statistics folks did the math behind this infection and transmission risk


----------



## sour_grapes

Rice_Guy said:


> There is a real neat risk indicator out which goes county by county everyday to estimate the risk of contact with covid in a group.



Sounds useful. Would you mind sharing the link?


----------



## bobofthenorth

At the risk of tying this thread back to wine making ..........

We live in Canada where our overall risk of exposure is relatively low c/w the rest of the world. In Canada we live in the province with the lowest population density and the lowest incidence of the bug. In that province we live in a little tiny forgotten remote village which we like to describe as a retirement community without the fence and guard shack. So all that is by way of saying that our personal risk of catching the bug is pretty low as long as we stay home which we do. We never went very far anyway so it wasn't a big adjustment but in anticipation of increased time at home alone with the old woman I am married to I decided to revive my wine making skills.

I made fermented beverages in my youth but my standards were minimal and I stored my output in empty milk jugs because they were readily available and because I only needed 1/6th as many as I would have if I used real wine bottles. I'm also a cheap prick so imagine my joy when I started searching FB Marketplace and Kijiji. I discovered that I could acquire much better and more equipment than I could ever have imagined for pennies on the dollar. So you could say the China Flu drove me to wine making and I'm having a blast. Right now I've got a WinExpert Stag Leap Merlot bulk aging; a WinExpert Washington Riesling recently bottled, a carboy++ of Dragon's Blood slowly clearing; another carboy++ of my own cider interpretation mostly cleared and a fermenter full of Skeeter Pee. Plus a couple of Costco kits on their way to my door. I'm ready for a winter of isolation. Really ready.


----------



## Rice_Guy

sour_grapes said:


> Sounds useful. Would you mind sharing the link?


Well Paul that was the intent, i can google it but not copy the link (yet) it is called:
COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
by Georgia Institute of Technology and Stanford University
it was a story on the TV this morning and public radio (WHAD) yesterday, ,,, this iPad hasn’t let me copy that article and I haven’t booted up the desk top lately.

@bobofthenorth i envy Canada’s social concern for neighbors
old farts have permission to not figure out how this box works, ,,, today I am seventy, ,,, which in part is why I get pissed at the COVID19 response I see with some of the kids and the neighbor who fixes things at six Walmart stores and then wants to share a glass of his current wine. Age equals one percent risk


----------



## Johnd

Rice_Guy said:


> Well Paul that was the intent, i can google it but not copy the link (yet) it is called:
> COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool
> by Georgia Institute of Technology and Stanford University
> it was a story on the TV this morning and public radio (WHAD) yesterday, ,,, this iPad hasn’t let me copy that article and I haven’t booted up the desk top lately.
> 
> @bobofthenorth i envy Canada’s social concern for neighbors
> old farts have permission to not figure out how this box works, ,,, today I am seventy, ,,, which in part is why I get pissed at the COVID19 response I see with some of the kids and the neighbor who fixes things at six Walmart stores and then wants to share a glass of his current wine. Age equals one percent risk


Here is the link for you:









COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool






covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu


----------



## sour_grapes

Rice_Guy said:


> old farts have permission to not figure out how this box works, ,,, today I am seventy, ,,,



Happy birthday!


----------



## 1d10t

So 260 million of 330 million are among the first? Math seems right to me. I've had my evening quota of wine and going back for more.



ibglowin said:


> View attachment 68321


----------



## sjjan

We are employing UVC lights to kill off anything in the room (in view), vehicle or private aircraft. It is easy to deploy and takes just a few minutes. This is apart from washing hands, staying at a distance of at least 1,5 meter and so on. 

Sorry, seemingly a response to a first page in this thread while I now see there is much more to read!


----------



## ZebraB

WHOO HOOO ....How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study — the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.


(study to large to attach, but it is linked by clicking the red portion)


----------



## GreginND

North Dakota has now achieved the status of the highest mortality rate per capita in the world. *sigh. Freedumb.


----------



## joeswine

Happy birthday SG...


----------



## ibglowin

And the poor nurses who now have to sit and listen to these people in the ICU now dying from Covid in the "Antimask States" are actually saying to them "I can't be dying from Covid it's not real........."


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> And the poor nurses who now have to sit and listen to these people in the ICU now dying from Covid in the "Antimask States" are actually saying to them "I can't be dying from Covid it's not real........."



On another forum I spend too much time on, somebody was accusing that South Dakota nurse of lying about that patient -- denying the reports of the plight of the deniers!


----------



## ibglowin

Well it's 2020 so it seems the world is full of deniers of most anything even when it's staring back right at them in the mirror.


----------



## sour_grapes

ibglowin said:


> Well it's 2020 so it seems the world is full of deniers of most anything even when it's staring back right at them in the mirror.



THAT IS NOT TRUE!

(  )


----------



## bstnh1

I signed up for, and was selected for, the Astra Zeneca Covid vaccine phase 3 trial. Two shots. I get the first on Nove. 30.


----------



## Johnd

We must also remember, in regards to our eating habits, that, technically, we’re only harming ourselves by eating like crap. (until we have government sponsored healthcare (aka: “free” healthcare), where the results of ones poor eating habits costs considerably more money than healthy habited folks healthcare does.) I digress.

Conversely, the unwillingness to wear a mask exposes not only the anti-masker, but also everyone else they come in contact with. It’s not just a personal decision, but one of care, concern, and respect for our fellow citizens. Some people weren’t in line when the Lord handed out care, concern, and respect, and therefore must be led by the nose ring in the proper direction.

We’ve already had the virus, and still wear masks at the appropriate times, not because we need to protect ourselves or others, we can’t get it or infect anyone else with it, we do it out of respect and concern for others, it’s just not that freakin hard to do.


----------



## Newlyretired

sjjan said:


> We are employing UVC lights to kill off anything in the room (in view), vehicle or private aircraft. It is easy to deploy and takes just a few minutes. This is apart from washing hands, staying at a distance of at least 1,5 meter and so on.
> 
> Sorry, seemingly a response to a first page in this thread while I now see there is much more to read!


What type of UV light do you use?


----------



## ibglowin

Remember to please keep the discussion about the virus and not politics or your personal belief of what Government is or is not.


----------



## Rice_Guy

_in the US_,,, , ,
When formulating food for Europe the rules do tell me to use less salt than in the US (but at 9 cents a pound I like salt)
When running a par fry as frozen fish sticks the FDA told me that trans fats cause cancer so we had to stop using them, as far as percentage composition we do try to reduce fat since this seems to be what the market is asking for.
Two generations before _X Foods _hired me, the US had producers who used saw dust flour as a cheap ingredient and the FDA started a testing program so we couldn’t do it.
The FDA is actively sampling shrimp imported from China since some foreign suppliers use formaldehyde to reduce micro count (isn’t formaldehyde what school embalmed that rat I had to dissect), ,, humm yummy shrimp and pea pods
The FDA decided that listeria was capable of causing food poisoning so a producer had to destroy peanut butter and E. coli caused food poisoning so prepackaged salad was destroyed several times.
A few folks died when air bags inflated with too much reactant and the government forced them to be replaced.
The government regulated tobacco so that the consumer was warned that there is a correlation with cancer and hypertension and heart attack.

There is a tool called _hazard analysis and critical control points_ (HACCP). The risk for an old fart dying of COVID is 1%. This is significantly higher than risk of death from any of the government regulated situations above. , ,,,, (oh, the risk of lung damage that makes one tired all day is about 2% and 40 year olds get this symptom)

,,, industry paid me to reduce the risk you are exposed to when you buy groceries, lots of university pHd’s tell me what to be concerned about.


----------



## Johnd

ibglowin said:


> Remember to please keep the discussion about the virus and not politics or your personal belief of what Government is or is not.


Not sure if that's directed at my comment or not, but please know that I worked really hard and edited a number of times to try to keep it apolitical, focused on humanity and how we treat each other. It wasn't a criticism or promotion of what any local, state, country or world government has or is doing, or what I think they should be doing, just my thoughts on basic human respect for our fellow human beings.


----------



## Kraffty

So they're denying that the deniers are denying?


----------



## sjjan

Newlyretired said:


> What type of UV light do you use?


UVC lights. There are lots of them around. See e.g. the one below where it cleans the air with UVC light.




See also this NYTime article about the use (or not) of scrubbing surfaces: 

The Coronavirus Is Airborne Indoors. Why Are We Still Scrubbing Surfaces?


----------



## joeswine

I install UV light purification systems and the reality is they can be harmful on your cornias, for them to. Be effective in removing bacteria and mold as well as viruses they should be totally contain ,no UV light exposed .
Just a thought.


----------



## sjjan

joeswine said:


> I install UV light purification systems and the reality is they can be harmful on your cornias, for them to. Be effective in removing bacteria and mold as well as viruses they should be totally contain ,no UV light exposed .
> Just a thought.


That is correct, you should not be in the same room at the time yoiu turn it on and for the time they are on. But in 20-30 minutes you can clean a room. It is a proven method used also in hospitals and operating rooms. It is not perfect as it also reaches out to those areas that the uvc-light can see.

If I fly on safaris or in business/small aircraft, I use such an UVC light as well before I actually enter the aircraft. I place one of these UVC lights, turn it on for 20 minutes and then the UVC light goes off. Then, the cockpit or smaller aircraft is more or less clean. In the mean time, I do the walk around. You could also use it in car rentals. We have a B&B as well and we use these lights there as well.


----------



## bstnh1

Johnd said:


> Not sure if that's directed at my comment or not, but please know that I worked really hard and edited a number of times to try to keep it apolitical, focused on humanity and how we treat each other. It wasn't a criticism or promotion of what any local, state, country or world government has or is doing, or what I think they should be doing, just my thoughts on basic human respect for our fellow human beings.


No, I believe that was directed at a comment I posted since it has been deleted.


----------



## Boatboy24

bstnh1 said:


> I signed up for, and was selected for, the Astra Zeneca Covid vaccine phase 3 trial. Two shots. I get the first on Nove. 30.



Question on that: will you get the vaccine, then be given the virus? Assume that's the case - how else would you test it? If so, thanks for putting yourself out in harm's way.


----------



## bstnh1

Boatboy24 said:


> Question on that: will you get the vaccine, then be given the virus? Assume that's the case - how else would you test it? If so, thanks for putting yourself out in harm's way.


Egads noo! Periodically they check your blood for antibodies. They said at no time would I receive or be exposed to the virus. Because it's a blind study, some people will get a placebo (saline solution I assume).


----------



## Newlyretired

sjjan said:


> That is correct, you should not be in the same room at the time yoiu turn it on and for the time they are on. But in 20-30 minutes you can clean a room. It is a proven method used also in hospitals and operating rooms. It is not perfect as it also reaches out to those areas that the uvc-light can see.
> 
> If I fly on safaris or in business/small aircraft, I use such an UVC light as well before I actually enter the aircraft. I place one of these UVC lights, turn it on for 20 minutes and then the UVC light goes off. Then, the cockpit or smaller aircraft is more or less clean. In the mean time, I do the walk around. You could also use it in car rentals. We have a B&B as well and we use these lights there as well.


That may work on areas that the uncle light has contact with, how do you treat the surfaces that have no Vic light exposure


----------



## Newlyretired

Newlyretired said:


> That may work on areas that the uncle light has contact with, how do you treat the surfaces that have no Vic light exposure


Sorry about that auto correct, uncle and Vic should read UVC.


----------



## crushday

Johnd said:


> We’ve already had the virus


John, wait... You had the virus?


----------



## Johnd

crushday said:


> John, wait... You had the virus?


Yep


----------



## GreginND

So, I have been tracking the data on weekly number of deaths due to ALL CAUSES. This number in the US and even in a small state like North Dakota generally varies very little. The total deaths each week is pretty constant year after year and fluctuates slightly higher during the winter months due to seasonal flu. As you can see from my graph below, 2020 is a huge anomaly. I am tired of the argument that goes something like . . . "Did they die OF covid or WITH covid?" It is moot. The fact is, just in North Dakota, we have already seen almost 1000 more people die in 2020 than the statistical average. The only thing different in 2020 is the presence of COVID-19. The fact is many people are dying that should be alive today. In the country, this number of excess deaths is over 300,000.


----------



## sjjan

Newlyretired said:


> That may work on areas that the uncle light has contact with, how do you treat the surfaces that have no Vic light exposure


You are right. The UVC light does not reach everything but is a good start next to normal cleaning efforts with water and soap.


----------



## Chuck E

GreginND said:


> So, I have been tracking the data on weekly number of deaths due to ALL CAUSES. This number in the US and even in a small state like North Dakota generally varies very little. The total deaths each week is pretty constant year after year and fluctuates slightly higher during the winter months due to seasonal flu. As you can see from my graph below, 2020 is a huge anomaly. I am tired of the argument that goes something like . . . "Did they die OF covid or WITH covid?" It is moot. The fact is, just in North Dakota, we have already seen almost 1000 more people die in 2020 than the statistical average. The only thing different in 2020 is the presence of COVID-19. The fact is many people are dying that should be alive today. In the country, this number of excess deaths is over 300,000.



I'm not trying to pick a fight here. BUT, your graph shows that ND had a near normal year until week 32. You cannot say the "only thing different is the presence of Covid 19." Cause of death is not broken out of your data. 

The fact remains, that a majority of persons in the US MUST get Covid, by either exposure or vaccine, in order for this to end. There is no other way.


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> I'm not trying to pick a fight here. BUT, your graph shows that ND had a near normal year until week 32. You cannot say the "only thing different is the presence of Covid 19." Cause of death is not broken out of your data.



Yes, well, lessee if we can assess why things started to change at about week 32:







> The fact remains, that a majority of persons in the US MUST get Covid, by either exposure or vaccine, in order for this to end. There is no other way.



Probably true under present circumstances. But it did not have to be that way:



sour_grapes said:


> But our _behavior_ influences the value of R0. I suspect that most of us have been thinking about "herd immunity" only under the conditions that we lived life, say, last year. Under those conditions, estimates are that something like 70% of people had to have immunity to Covid to achieve R0 < 1. (I should note that we don't even know yet if people who recover from the disease gain immunity, or how long it lasts if they do, let alone whether a vaccine will be developed.)
> 
> However, under a different set of behaviors, the transmission rate is different. So mask-wearing, hand-washing, etc., are not just buying us time, they are altering the dynamics of the spread of the disease, that is, they are altering the threshold when "herd immunity" is achieved. Of course, the "herd" is a different herd than we are used to; our behaviors would be different. But we as a society could _choose_ to be part of a herd where the disease doesn't spread as rapidly (at some social costs), and the herd immunity threshold is lower. Or we could choose to be part of a herd where the disease spreads rapidly, the threshold of herd immunity is much higher, and many more people are sickened or die.


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> Cause of death is not broken out of your data.



Moreover, the point of Greg's chart was that you do not NEED to break out the deaths by cause to know that something is afoot. But, such data are available. I posted "new cases" above, but we can also get a graph of "new deaths" attributed to COVID:


----------



## Chuck E

I believe the death rate is down, because the medical profession has gained vast knowledge in treatment strategies. I think that our behavior changes only the time when Ro is attained.


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> I believe the death rate is down, because the medical profession has gained vast knowledge in treatment strategies. I think that our behavior changes only the time when Ro is attained.



I agree with you about the improvements in death rate. I am very grateful that you survived.

I am not sure, but, from your comment, I don't think you have the right idea of what R0 is? It is not "attained" at some time. It is a measure, at all times, of what the new infection rate per existing infected person. Our behavior indisputably changes what the value of R0 is.


----------



## Chuck E

I should have wrote: when Ro<1


----------



## sour_grapes

Chuck E said:


> I should have wrote: when Ro<1



Ahh, okay. I perhaps should have made that inference unaided.  

But, now I am further confused. If you agree that our behavior can change whether R0 < 1 or not, then surely you must agree that it would be possible for the disease to die out without the necessity of "the majority of people in the US" to get COVID. Like it did for SARS?

I agree that this is not likely at this stage of the game, however.


----------



## Chuck E

Yes, I agree it is/was possible for the disease to die out due to our reactions, but that possibility existed at the onset. Where we are now is another matter entirely. PPE works in a clinical setting. The strict protocols of disposal after each contact is NOT what happens in the USA. I believe we should focus our efforts at keeping the elderly and folks with co-morbidities safe. The rest of us will need to take our chances with exposure or the vaccine. More and quicker testing would help immensely. As would a reduced focus by the news media on positive cases. Hospital capacity should be more of a focus. Flatening the curve in hospital usage within a locality seems to be more important to me.


----------



## Rice_Guy

The wife (extrovert) and I (introvert) had a emotional discussion yesterday about “do we _NEED _a 25 pound turkey this year”? , , was it ever really possible to prevent the infection when we can’t agree on what is real? My logic answer after stewing over what thanksgiving looks like is “no, COVID is not real”. We as a society have enough resources that most of us won’t personally see covid.
The brother in law made it through with fever and headache/ sister in law claims no symptoms. , , , ie it is not real in the emotional mind , , , and so much on the TV and Facebook or thanksgiving is emotion driven.



Chuck E said:


> Yes, I agree it is/was possible for the disease to die out due to our reactions, but that possibility existed at the onset. Where we are now is another matter entirely. PPE works in a clinical setting. The strict protocols of disposal after each contact is NOT what happens in the USA. I believe we should focus our efforts at keeping the elderly and folks with co-morbidities safe. The rest of us will need to take our chances with exposure or the vaccine. More and quicker testing would help immensely. As would a reduced focus by the news media on positive cases. Hospital capacity should be more of a focus. Flatening the curve in hospital usage within a locality seems to be more important to me.


----------



## DizzyIzzy

sjjan said:


> You are right. The UVC light does not reach everythinb but is a good start next to normal cleaning efforts with water and soap.


I have purchased a hand-held UV light scanner to scan small items like cameras, phones, remotes, etc. Purchased it for traveling, primarily, but who knows when we will be able to do that again? My thoughts.........................every little bit of protection is a good thing!..............................................DizzIzzy


----------



## DizzyIzzy

Rice_Guy said:


> The wife (extrovert) and I (introvert) had a emotional discussion yesterday about “do we _NEED _a 25 pound turkey this year”? , , was it ever really possible to prevent the infection when we can’t agree on what is real? My logic answer after stewing over what thanksgiving looks like is “no, COVID is not real”. We as a society have enough resources that most of us won’t personally see covid.
> The brother in law made it through with fever and headache/ sister in law claims no symptoms. , , , ie it is not real in the emotional mind , , , and so much on the TV and Facebook or thanksgiving is emotion driven.


My boyfriend's eldest daughter (age 50) was in a coma, and intubated for one month, not expected to live through the ordeal, which she did fortunately. Just today got a call from my church stating that our pastor and one of the deacons are both hospitalized with Covid AND pneumonia, not yet intubated, thank God. We all live in a rural part of Ohio with minimal outside contact. If it can hit here, it can hit anywhere. Covid is definately real!!...............................DizzyIzzy


----------



## sour_grapes

DizzyIzzy said:


> My boyfriend's eldest daughter (age 50) was in a coma, and intubated for one month, not expected to live through the ordeal, which she did fortunately. Just today got a call from my church stating that our pastor and one of the deacons are both hospitalized with Covid AND pneumonia, not yet intubated, thank God. We all live in a rural part of Ohio with minimal outside contact. If it can hit here, it can hit anywhere. Covid is definately real!!...............................DizzyIzzy



So glad to hear your friend's daughter recovered. Good luck to her and all in your community.


----------



## GreginND

Chuck E said:


> I'm not trying to pick a fight here. BUT, your graph shows that ND had a near normal year until week 32. You cannot say the "only thing different is the presence of Covid 19." Cause of death is not broken out of your data.
> 
> The fact remains, that a majority of persons in the US MUST get Covid, by either exposure or vaccine, in order for this to end. There is no other way.




No fight. Good discussion! Our number of cases have been very low until recently. After 32 weeks, our number of cases started rising exponentially. However, that does have some variability depending on how testing is done. Our test positivity rates also have been rising to very high numbers (even over 40%) indicating we are not testing enough. All that being said, the main indicators of a real problem are hospitalizations and deaths. Currently our hospitals are beyond capacity and our death rates have increased dramatically. Those graphs for North Dakota are shown below. It looks like we may have peaked in new cases, active cases and hospitalizations. Deaths will lag.

I think you are correct that we have learned better how to treat the disease after six months of experience. Early in the pandemic, death rates in the country were much higher and we have helped that with knew knowledge and better treatments. This is why I criticized the Sweden model as they had a very high number of deaths (10 times their neighbor, Norway) early in the pandemic. If they could have slowed the spread, many of those who died early in the summer would likely have been saved if they were to get infected now. No, we can't stop it, but we can mitigate the deaths due to it by slowing the spread to manageable levels. This is even more critical for the hospitals. There will likely be, and we have already seen, deaths from other critical accidents and diseases like heart attack and stroke because patients can't get the care they need from our overwhelmed health care system. "Flattening the curve" is even more important now than ever before as the situation in health care is dire in large swaths of the country now. Here are today's graphs for North Dakota.


----------



## Boatboy24

Nice to see those trend lines moving downward. I was tracking that closely for VA through early August and noticed that we had several cycles of peaks and valleys on the trend before it sorta stayed down for a while (of course, we're now higher than ever for the state, but the northern region is still doing reasonably well). Hopefully, SD just sinks, and quickly.


----------



## Chuck E

@sour_grapes I believe in what's called the Avalon-Hill model of how the virus affects people. That is, it depends on a combination of viral load and patient vulnerability. 
My problem with “keep R below 1″ is that it is a representative-agent model. That is, it treats everyone the same, with identical probability of getting or spreading the disease. But in fact people differ greatly in terms of vulnerability and in terms of propensity to spread the disease.


----------



## BernardSmith

But Chuck E - why would it matter what model undergirds the infection rates for this virus? If the goal was to ensure that the R factor is kept below 1 so that across the entire population the rate of infection is equivalent to any one person who is infected infects fewer than 1 other person. That might mean that if 10,000 people are newly infected today, tomorrow, fewer than 10,000 are infected and the next day, fewer than that smaller number are infected... That said, we will need to do more work to maintain that negative trajectory IF vulnerability and viral load is not uniform.. But aiming for an R of less than 1 is critical no matter what - and I would argue that until the vaccine is being given to 100 percent of the world population we need to require a total lockdown - TOTAL - except for emergencies, and that that lockdown remains in effect for at least 3 weeks.. Then, no matter the load and no matter your vulnerability the virus would be unable to reproduce and would die out assuming emergency workers were kept isolated from their immediate families. And to begin that lockdown we would need to provide *everyone* with enough food and meds for their needs for that lockdown and so that lockdown might ot be able to begin for another few weeks. But then the economy would completely close ... but it would close for 3 weeks and not be hobbled for months and months and months.


----------



## ceeaton

Just had my boss text me that his wife is showing flu like symptoms. He's been going on site every day and doing things that need done in there to support the rest of the staff (including sales people) since the rest of us are working from home for the most part. 

Looks like I'll be heading into work a lot more starting tomorrow, possibly the weekend too. He can't come in unless she tests negative (possibly twice depending on the type of test used). If she does have it he'll be working from home for 14 days starting the day her symptoms fully subside, unless he gets tested 5 days from today and tests negative.

Here's hoping and praying that she doesn't have it!


----------



## DizzyIzzy

sour_grapes said:


> So glad to hear your friend's daughter recovered. Good luck to her and all in your community.


Thankyou sour grapes! Pastor Dave today will be receiving nutrition by IV. We are praying for recovery!...............................DizzyIzzy


----------



## DizzyIzzy

ceeaton said:


> Just had my boss text me that his wife is showing flu like symptoms. He's been going on site every day and doing things that need done in there to support the rest of the staff (including sales people) since the rest of us are working from home for the most part.
> 
> Looks like I'll be heading into work a lot more starting tomorrow, possibly the weekend too. He can't come in unless she tests negative (possibly twice depending on the type of test used). If she does have it he'll be working from home for 14 days starting the day her symptoms fully subside, unless he gets tested 5 days from today and tests negative.
> 
> Here's hoping and praying that she doesn't have it!


Lets hope so.........................Times are so difficult now....................................DizzyIzzy


----------



## ibglowin

We are the only County in the State of NM not RED........


----------



## bstnh1

Not my creation. This was sent to me by a friend:

*T’was a Month Before Christmas 2020
*
T’was a month before Christmas,
And all through the town,
People wore masks,
That covered their frown.

The frown had begun
Way back in the Spring,
When a global pandemic
Changed everything.

They called it corona,
But unlike the beer,
It didn’t bring good times,
It didn’t bring cheer.

Contagious and deadly,
This virus spread fast,
Like a wildfire that starts
When fueled by gas.

Airplanes were grounded,
Travel was banned.
Borders were closed
Across air, sea and land.

As the world entered lockdown
To flatten the curve,
The economy halted,
And folks lost their verve.

From March to July
We rode the first wave,
People stayed home,
They tried to behave.

When summer emerged
The lockdown was lifted.
But away from caution,
Many folks drifted.

Now it’s November
And cases are spiking,
Wave two has arrived,
Much to our disliking.

Frontline workers,
Doctors and nurses,
Try to save people,
From riding in hearses.

This virus is awful,
This COVID-19.
There isn’t a cure.
There is no vaccine.

It’s true that this year
Has had sadness a plenty,
We’ll never forget
The year 2020.

And just ‘round the corner –
The holiday season,
But why be merry?
Is there even one reason?

To decorate the house
And put up the tree,
When no one will see it,
No-one but me.

But outside my window
The snow gently falls,
And I think to myself,
Let’s deck the halls!

So, I gather the ribbon,
The garland and bows,
As I play those old carols,
My happiness grows.

Christmas ain’t cancelled
And neither is hope.
If we lean on each other,
I know we can cope.

_*Author unknown*_


----------



## Rice_Guy

_at this point I have to argue that we need universal testing, we are blind _


Chuck E said:


> . . . But in fact people differ greatly in terms of vulnerability and in terms of propensity to spread the disease.


it has been an interesting week, 
I had the annual physical which felt like it was minimal, “they will get close enough to give a flue shot but really didn’t want to stand in front and listen to the breathing/ cough or scope the ears/ nose/ mouth. The doctor is frustrated that they really don’t know a lot about why corona acts so erratic.
Todd the neighbor who services mechanical systems at six regional Walmarts two days ago said that he felt sick saturday and Sunday, ,, mild stuff congestion/ fever, ,, and Friday he was at one of the kids so the girlfriend decided Todd might have exposed her and she ought to get tested, ,, and yesterday the test came back positive, ,, so Todd called his boss to discuss what to do? the boss deciding well you are asymptotic and have been servicing your accounts Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday so why stop to quarantine on Thursday. Todd isn’t going to bother getting a test, ,,, _would be nice if he did the antibody though, ,_, would be nice if he masked up when he walked over a week ago.

Oh Sugar! ,,,, 
if I look at Korea and Singapore as models infrared scanning is common, you go in to work and your temp is checked, to school and your temp is checked, ,,, why not change the rules so that a church that wants to go to court isn’t _ORDERED_ to stop having gatherings above ten people, but instead ORDERED that they have everyone scanned or quick tested every time they hold a gathering above ten people, ,,, and likewise for Walmart or other big businesses
WE ARE BLIND, and Todd is a gregarious type which could make a super spreader event


----------



## BernardSmith

We are a society that has absolutely no understanding of the difference between public health and personal illness. In fact I would argue that US society is a clone of the Thatcher approach to society in the UK in the 1970s. She said, and I quote: Society? there is no such thing as society. 
Here we admit that you and I can get sick and die . That's personal illness but no such thing as public health. We are now dying at a faster rate than 1 person a minute every day BECAUSE of this virus. Well, it looks like we are racing pell mell towards the iceberg while our federal government is reclining on their deckchairs sipping martinis or playing rounds of golf.


----------



## Chuck E

@Rice_Guy The state of Washington has a nice testing regime. People take the test themselves and send in the samples. You log in to web portal for the results in a couple of days. The US is testing a million people a day, but it needs to test more. My wife has tested 3 times negative, and 1 negative antibody test. She has been exposed to me and at least 3 other positive carriers. My pulmonologist has seen many reports of this in his study group. His theory is that many people have been exposed to other corona viruses (common cold types) which confer some immunity. There are also studies on "viral load" which indicate that you need a large exposure to become infected. 

@BernardSmith The Federal government does not have the constitutional authority to do much more than they have done. Public health has always been a state/local responsibility. I believe that is as it should be.


----------



## BernardSmith

Constitutional authority? I am talking about providing states with necessary resources and consistently offering best practice advice neither which this government has felt able, bound, or desirous to offer. In another country this would be called gross and blithering negligence.


----------



## Rice_Guy

@Chuck E , an interesting model is out which suggests that anosmia is a function of mucosal immune response (Russell, University of Buffalo)


----------



## Rice_Guy

This is the US, ,,,, yes constitutional, the Wisconsin court knocked down mask orders based on the governor not having the legal right to give such a state wide order, kinda funny the lame duck session when Walker lost the last election narrowed the new governor’s authority more


BernardSmith said:


> Constitutional authority? I am talking about providing states with necessary resources and consistently offering best practice advice neither which this government has felt able, bound, or desirous to offer. In another country this would be called gross and blithering negligence.


* the federal government has taxing and funding tools which are persuasive, ex schools buy into expressing equal rights as a cost of accepting funding
* it is OK to be negligent if it keeps one political tribe in power, decades ago I observed that an emotional argument is every bit as strong as a logic or statistical risk argument, ,,,, so what a few thousand old farts die, but the base will be happy

* _what would a wise leader/ person do?_


----------



## BernardSmith

I guess we need to work to change the constitution to make it befit the 21st century rather than the 18th. The 13th amendment still permits slavery and if the constitution does not permit the government to issue orders to protect people from viruses that are a life form unknown to the Founding Fathers then perhaps we need to bring the constitution into the 21st Century; health, being a human right and not simply a private benefit for those who can afford it.


----------



## BernardSmith

Chuck E said:


> @Rice_Guy The state of Washington has a nice testing regime. People take the test themselves and send in the samples. You log in to web portal for the results in a couple of days. The US is testing a million people a day, but it needs to test more.



Not an epidemiologist, but tests need to be performed routinely and regularly. The private school (K-12) where my wife teaches history tests teachers and students every few weeks and they are moving to group testing (to reduce the cost) but they still maintain that testing needs to be done regularly and I completely agree. Even those who are asymptomatic can still infect others and if you are asymptomatic why would you think to get tested?


----------



## bstnh1

Health care a human right???? Well, we need clothing, housing, transportation, food, personal care items and a whole lot more. Should we make those "human rights" too?? It amazes me how many people think the government should provide everything they need while they sit back and say "gimme more".


----------



## BernardSmith

I am not sure that admins of this forum want this to be used for philosophical discussions, so if they think that this is inapropriate they may delete this but I am very happy to pay the taxes needed to ensure that public goods are produced and equitably distributed and if your needs are greater than my needs then an equitable distribution would mean that you should get more of the scarce resources than I. I have no problem with that. 

I don't sit back and say "gimme ME more. I work to try to get everyone what THEY need. My needs are few and small. But many of the things you mention should be PUBLIC GOODS and not private goods to be sold and bought to enrich a select few. Housing, education, health, transportation and food are fundamental parts of the infrastructure of society yet we have created a social system and a society where these essential public goods have been transformed into private goods that produce gtreat wealth for a few. We have created a social systen where you MUST buy into these goods as if they are private goods and not part of the public wealth. Those with power and authority have created laws and to treat these things as private goods. 

But the thing is - and contra Ronald Reagan - You and I are the government. Government is not some alien creature distinct from us all . Government is neither good nor bad. It is only as good as we make it. Government is not the problem unless we, the people, are the problem. And we, the people, are not the problem.


----------



## David Violante

Part I and II of the book Sapiens by Yuval Harari explains fairly well one theory of human behavior as related to this topic among many others like it. It is a very interesting read if only to see another perspective and ponder it. 

I have been involved in Public Health for many years locally and internationally. What I've found in that arena and other public benefit type programs like it (read: designed for the public at large, not designed for individuals at the public's expense) is that people tend to believe and do what is best for everyone until a personal threshold is reached. That threshold declines over time with exhaustion, confusion, politics, economics, confounding factors, social influence, belief systems, etc... We are far into that threshold for many reasons, right, wrong, good, bad, or otherwise, and trying to swim among all the information, experiences and influences. The influences are the toughest piece, especially within the social media driven scape we live (watch The Social Dilemma for yet another perspective). 

To that end, discussion is good at every level, and we are very uniquely positioned to be able to have it, as opposed to some other places around the world that are not. Maybe it's here, maybe it's not, but a place to have the discussion is paramount to not having it at all.


----------



## Chuck E

@Rice_Guy Thanks for the tip on the U of Buffalo article. Very interesting. Since I've recovered from Covid, I read just about every scholarly journal report I can get my hands on. This is the first I've seen on developing immunity in the upper respiratory system.


----------



## Chuck E

BernardSmith said:


> But the thing is - and contra Ronald Reagan - You and I are the government. Government is not some alien creature distinct from us all . Government is neither good nor bad. It is only as good as we make it. Government is not the problem unless we, the people, are the problem. And we, the people, are not the problem.



I disagree with you. Government is a problem on many levels. Ie: the bureaucracy and lack of motivation to do good work. Over-dependency on functions it is unsuited for. Over regulation. I could go on, but you get the idea. As a society, we have lost our appetite for risk. Consequently, we expect the government force the precautionary principle on to all of us. Each of us breaks numerous laws everyday, because there are so many no one can know them all.


----------



## BernardSmith

If we think that bureaucracy prevents needed actions we have the power to change that. If we refuse to change what we think is wrong then that is not the fault of "government" . That is our fault. When was the last time you called your local, state or federal representatives? When was the last time you lobbied to get what you want government to do? Some reguklations are good, some are poor, and some are bad but regulations as a tool are neither good nor bad. They are what allows us to control and manage our very complex civil society. To argue otherwise is like saying that your car brakes and accelerator is bad. Those are "regulators" and they are bad only if they don't work when you need them to or you don't know how to apply them appropriately.


----------



## Rice_Guy

@bstnh1 Good question, ,,, the human right is to be treated fairly.

the job of government is to do actions for the common good, frequently this is health (ex covid), and defense, and regulations, and improving the economic well being of all.
A century ago it was considered common good to find a cure for polio, for cholera, for small pox, , , we have stories as typhoid Mary who was confined against her will because she was an asymptomatic super spreader. The court decided that she could be confined for the common good even though she had not committed a crime, ,,, was typhoid Mary treated fairly? ,,, Today we have a similar outbreak in covid. asymptomatic people are spreading it and some unfortunates then get sick, with about 2% developing lasting lung damage and about 1% of symptomatic folks get to die. What is fair? the majority will live, ,,,, reduce the risk for all with masks/ capacity limits/ etc ,,, and why has our neighbor’s health become a tribal issue? apparently not enough have died yet and we have lost the memory of iron lungs/ polio.
I laugh that monoclonal antibodies were used a month ago to treat the leader with covid. Science took fetal stem cells and manipulated genetics to make the cocktail,,,, Was this fair? the leader did not earn that health care (and also he's against the health care which produced the fetal cells which turned into new technology to allow him recover symptom free), ,,, and so far you and I are not offered this technology, at any price. Good question above, ,, is health care a right, better question, what would be fair if it were your kid?
The Japanese system is designed so the lowest paid worker and highest paid are separated by 70x. The US is a lot farther apart, I see numbers in the high 200s every year. With covid we are calling lots of bottom wage workers “essential”, really? if they really are/ were essential then why not treat the bottom more equally? ,,,, did the CEO get paid health care and transportation? probably, ,,, do we as a people find it important that all are treated fairly? (especially the next generation)

_OPINION; no the government should not and frankly can not give everyone everything, work is good and individuals who have stupid behavior patterns should not have them rewarded ,,, HOWEVER the rules should be established so that all are treated fairly, AND especially that the kids all have a chance to be productive and smart and honest and lead happy lives, kinda treated like we would want ourselves and our grandkids to be treated.
I worked in research which only existed because we as a society have enough resources that we can burn through our surplus and never go hungry, we are a rich species! I have also seen the other side, ,,, I was willing to be a single parent of a special needs kid, was willing to be the 24 hour care giver, and on food stamps, and on mom care etc ,,,, because I love my kid. What would you want if it were you? what is the common good if it is you?

We as a species have developed monoclonal antibodies, electricity, clothing, wine, basically everything today, , , , , only because we have worked together for the common good_



bstnh1 said:


> Health care a human right???? Well, we need clothing, housing, transportation, food, personal care items and a whole lot more. Should we make those "human rights" too?? It amazes me how many people think the government should provide everything they need while they sit back and say "gimme more".


----------



## BernardSmith

I think you touched on one of the incredible "ironies" of these times: the fact that POTUS was treated with stem cell produced antibodies that came from fetal tissue and no one who objects to stem cell research called foul...


----------



## jswordy

In the rural county where I live in Tennessee, NO ONE wears a mask and the state does not have a masking mandate nor does the county. I just got back from a farm store in town, and ONE employee was masked, ZERO customers masked. That's typical all across the county, which ranks as having an epidemic of COVID and is sixth in Tennessee in daily new cases. I wear a mask at all times when I am rarely out in public, and I get angry stares for doing it. 

Even as these folks are seeing their friends and relatives get seriously ill and die, they refuse. Even as COVID has overtaken heart disease as the #1 killer of Americans (source: NBC News), they refuse. I can only surmise that, in the face of all science and research and empirical evidence of an epidemic level of local infection, the motivation for not wearing a mask is mostly political. People here are the "Don't Tread on Me" type and they say masks infringe on their freedoms.

I just can't see, for my part, that there's much freedom in a box with six feet of dirt on your chest. Just can't see it.

Because of this insanity and my ability to work from home, we don't go out anywhere unless absolutely necessary for food or supplies. And we won't for months yet to come. We're higher risk, and I am not going to die of it just from sheer complacency.


----------



## BernardSmith

To me this is "political" in the more philosophical sense - Nothing to do with party politics as much as a deeply ingrained ideology that dismisses the social almost entirely and invokes the individual as the only thing that matters. Public health has absolutely no meaning in that ideology. YOU are on your own. I take care ONLY of myself. 

But in reality, wearing a mask has really as much to do with my NEED to protect YOU in order to also protect myself. The refusal of people to understand that we all have a need to protect each other at least as much as we need to protect ourselves is a recipe for the end of the American Century. Of course, I come from an understanding of the world that views the "individual" as a particular aspect of the more fundamental social organization and not the social system as being made up of a collection of "individuals" who have made some "contract" with one another. (individuals can exist, literally, only within the context of a social system and cannot exist prior to any social system - language could never have evolved otherwise).


----------



## DizzyIzzy

BernardSmith said:


> We are a society that has absolutely no understanding of the difference between public health and personal illness. In fact I would argue that US society is a clone of the Thatcher approach to society in the UK in the 1970s. She said, and I quote: Society? there is no such thing as society.
> Here we admit that you and I can get sick and die . That's personal illness but no such thing as public health. We are now dying at a faster rate than 1 person a minute every day BECAUSE of this virus. Well, it looks like we are racing pell mell towards the iceberg while our federal government is reclining on their deckchairs sipping martinis or playing rounds of golf.


I just found out our pastor went to live with the Lord today at 4PM. I am so devastated!! He was the glue that held the congregation together. I don't know how our small country church will survive this blow. Others are sick, one of our congregation's twin brother died last week of the virus..................when is this going to end??.................blessings to all...................................DizzyIzzy


----------



## GreginND

I know I've posted this for North Dakota before, but here is the data for all of the US. This is a graph of total weekly deaths due to any and all causes for the last four years. You can see that 2020 is simply not normal. We have experienced an unprecedented number of excess deaths over, what is typically, a very stable statistical average. Whether or not the death certificates state these excess deaths are due to COVID-19, the pandemic is the one factor different in 2020. You can even see at the tail end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 a slight increase in deaths over normal. THIS was due to the worst flu season we have had in 100 years. This pandemic blows that all away. I think this is what people really need to see to understand that this is simply not the flu and their lack of regard for their friends and neighbors are killing people.


----------



## Rice_Guy

University hospital Udine Italian reported that in 40% of positive covid antibody individuals loss of smell and taste was the only covid symptom.
Also in individuals who were admitted to the hospital and tested positive for covid, 63% reported loss of smell and taste ,, and for almost 25% this was the first symptom.


----------



## ZebraB

*Vaccine or vodka? Russians told to choose their shot*

“The intake of alcohol needs to stop at least two weeks prior to immunization,” Popova said in an interview with Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda.

Recipients should then abstain from alcohol for “42 days after the first injection,” Popova added. “Immunity is being formed and one needs to take care.”

Needless to say there was some push back from the Russians. Later the vac developers made the following public statement

“We strongly recommend abstaining from alcohol for three days after each injection,” Gintsburg said.
"Excess alcohol consumption suppresses the immune system, reducing Sputnik V’s effectiveness “or even rendering it meaningless,” he added “Of course we’re not talking about a complete ban on alcohol during vaccination,” Gintsburg said.










No Alcohol for 2 Months, Russia Tells Coronavirus Vaccine Recipients - The Moscow Times


The vaccine's developer later clarified that "a single glass of champagne never hurt anyone."




www.themoscowtimes.com






Note: Their Vax is like AstraZeneca’s vaccine which is a viral vector inoculation that is based on a weakened version of a common cold virus (adenovirus) and not a mRNA based vax. But OH is believe to weaken the immune system.


----------



## Boatboy24

ZebraB said:


> *Vaccine or vodka? Russians told to choose their shot*
> 
> “The intake of alcohol needs to stop at least two weeks prior to immunization,” Popova said in an interview with Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda.
> 
> Recipients should then abstain from alcohol for “42 days after the first injection,” Popova added. “Immunity is being formed and one needs to take care.”
> 
> Needless to say there was some push back from the Russians. Later the vac developers made the following public statement
> 
> “We strongly recommend abstaining from alcohol for three days after each injection,” Gintsburg said.
> "Excess alcohol consumption suppresses the immune system, reducing Sputnik V’s effectiveness “or even rendering it meaningless,” he added “Of course we’re not talking about a complete ban on alcohol during vaccination,” Gintsburg said.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No Alcohol for 2 Months, Russia Tells Coronavirus Vaccine Recipients - The Moscow Times
> 
> 
> The vaccine's developer later clarified that "a single glass of champagne never hurt anyone."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.themoscowtimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Note: Their Vax is like AstraZeneca’s vaccine which is a viral vector inoculation that is based on a weakened version of a common cold virus (adenovirus) and not a mRNA based vax. But OH is believe to weaken the immune system.



Well, I guess I know which vax I'll be seeking out when I'm eligible in 2024.


----------



## Rice_Guy

_an argument for lowering the curve, AKA mask wearing._


https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2016.2562



In brief, the rate of mutation on an infection is high in the initial reproduction phase (exponential growth phase) when lots of copies of the virus are produced. 
* IF we have a high infection rate we have lots of individuals who host the organism and shorten how much time is required for the next major step in the evolution of the disease. 
* IF we slow transmission we can starve the organism of new hosts who are willing to let the organism evolve to the next infectious agent and in a case like small pox the organism went extinct.


----------



## winemanden

My CEO (Wife) and I had our first Jab Dec 18, 2nd one due Jan 8. I take no notice of the anti vaccine crap that's being circulated, nor the no mask, social distancing crap. As for people saying the Government is using it to collect your data, well that's crap as well.
If you pay income tax, have a driving licence, credit or bank card, passport, use social media, forums such as this, they already have it. 
It's getting to the stage where WE THE PEOPLE have to make a stand. Let's do it. Play safe. stay safe, get the jab.


----------



## ibglowin

The US past 20,000,000 cases of COVID today. 

It took 292 days for the US to reach its first 10 million cases, and just 54 more days to double it.

Let thank sink in for a minute.


----------



## sour_grapes

winemanden said:


> WE THE PEOPLE



Hey! You aren't allowed to say "We the people™" over there in the UK!


----------



## winemanden

Under strict lockdown again in the UK.  
A front line doctor from a London hospital said, 'Scientists are saying it's a mutant variant of the virus that's causing it to spread so rapidly. Viruses don't spread on their own, it's human beings who are doing the spreading.' 
My grand-daughter is on the front line giving people the needle at the Health Centre in the next town, I hope she stays safe.
I had my first jab of vaccine Dec 18, next one due this coming Friday, no problems at all.
As for lockdown, as long as I have a couple of biscuits, a piece of strong cheese and a glass of good wine I can put up with it.
I wish you all a Happier and Healthier New Year. Stay Safe.


----------



## winemanden

sour_grapes said:


> Hey! You aren't allowed to say "We the people™" over there in the UK!


Of course we are. We taught you lot the language!


----------



## Rice_Guy

We debate. To retire or not to retire on Feb 17th? ?

The wife is looking at her high school going back to in person classes on Feb 17th. What the school nurse sent out would say that nation wide at December the risk of a school staff team member catching covid has been 1 in 200 for in person schools. Students is 1 in 400. School staff is about a third higher than the risk seen in the communities the districts are in. (Data Includes asymptomatic cases).

The state/ county are awfully slow at giving projected schedule info on vaccination. I wish there was a daily press briefing to”encourage” the health folks to have a plan. I like Florida letting Publix distribute through their pharmacies, , , , wine maker 101 *PATIENCE!*


----------



## joeswine

HUM?


----------



## Venatorscribe

I wonder if they also need to reduce their intake of antifreeze and brake fluid




ZebraB said:


> *Vaccine or vodka? Russians told to choose their shot*
> 
> “The intake of alcohol needs to stop at least two weeks prior to immunization,” Popova said in an interview with Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda. Recipients should then abstain from alcohol for “42 days after the first injection,” Popova added. “Immunity is being formed and one needs to take care.”


----------



## ibglowin

Kinda says it all.


----------



## GreginND

Yes, I've been tracking the number of deaths due to all causes for months and see the same thing. Note that the 2017-2018 flu season shows up there. That was the worst influence epidemic in 100 years. COVID-19 makes it pale in comparison.


----------



## Rice_Guy

_The debate on going back to in person teaching in February or suddenly retiring has been answered._ 
The school district sent out invitations about “get your vaccination” so she has one down and the second shot is on the calendar. , , , humm a few more years 


Rice_Guy said:


> We debate. To retire or not to retire on Feb 17th? ?
> 
> The wife is looking at her high school going back to in person classes on Feb 17th. What the school nurse sent out would say that nation wide at December the risk of a school staff team member catching covid has been 1 in 200 for in person schools. Students is 1 in 400. School staff is about a third higher than the risk seen in the communities the districts are in. (Data Includes asymptomatic cases).
> 
> The state/ county are awfully slow at giving projected schedule info on vaccination. I wish there was a daily press briefing to”encourage” the health folks to have a plan. I like Florida letting Publix distribute through their pharmacies, , , , wine maker 101 *PATIENCE!*


The politics of limited supply is interesting, I in the old fart category have not been prioritized and the wife’s father at age 90 also isn't on a priority list.
. ,,,, For some in this area the pandemic is not real, ,, example a niece just came here to visit her grandfather *without wearing a mask, ,,*, and Yet another student was symptomatic/ tested positive last Wednesday, , my wife worries about how unconcerned most school kids are.,,, however life would be a lot easier if she picked out a younger husband and father, ,,, maybe for the next pandemic,,,,


----------



## VinesnBines

So in Virginia, they moved the over 65 and the 16 to 64 year with serious health conditions to phase 1b. Some counties are in phase 1b but the pharmacies are saying they are waiting on the vaccines or it will be a 2 month wait...one county health department is saying only the age 75 or older. So it appears the move of groups to a higher phase has done no good. 
Oh well, I didn't want to quit teleworking anyhow.


----------



## Boatboy24

They lowered it to 65 here in Fairfax County, but apparently have no vaccines available. When they opened it up to 75 and older last week, my mother in law tried a few times to call and register with no luck even getting the cal to go through. Finally on Friday, she went through the website and got an immediate confirmation saying "thanks for getting in line. we'll hold your place until there's some vaccine available and will let you know when that happens". Doesn't make a lot of sense to me to open it up to a wider audience when you can't even serve the audience it's already been opened up to.


----------



## joeswine

Same response here in New Jersey I got online to go nowhere no phone calls returned no nothing imagine that what happened to all the millions of serums that were supposed to be out there ? And I fit into the critical profile.


----------



## VinesnBines

I had a notice from the Vineyard Association that as a grower, I and my workers are eligible in phase 1b. I sent the email in but like Jim's mother-in-law, I got a "thank you, don't call us..." reply.


----------



## NoQuarter

joeswine said:


> Same response here in New Jersey I got online to go nowhere no phone calls returned no nothing imagine that what happened to all the millions of serums that were supposed to be out there ? And I fit into the critical profile.


It must be a state thing. All the over 65s in my small town have gotten round 1. Across the line in Florida you make reservations and it takes a week to get in for over 65s at the medical centers and a couple big parking lots around town.. Also a lot of places doing walk ups over 65s... monday, jan. and feb. birthdays,...tuesday its march and april birthdays etc...
Now all the local Publix supermarkets are starting to give the shots.... just a matter of time, hang in there.


----------



## Rice_Guy

I envy you ,,,,, and I am counting the days


NoQuarter said:


> It must be a state thing. All the over 65s in my small town have gotten round 1. Across the line in Florida you make reservations and it takes a week to get in for over 65s . . . . just a matter of time, hang in there.



well let’s count ,,, if the 38 YO daughter tested positive Thursday
and the wife’s clan came for football playoffs Saturday (which had food/ drinks),,, that is five days
and if she was symptomatic enough to take the test that would have probably been Tuesday so that makes three days from football
and the incubation for most viruses is two to three days so, possibly one day, possibly zero days from football
- -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
distribution is interesting since three times this week the clinic has said they don’t have any vaccine in the building or just wait ”My Chart” will notify you when it is your time, _however _the wife got round one at this clinic with a magic phone number from the school superintendent
well let’s count, if the age cut off drops to 65 on Monday and if the state adds another 700,000 eligible to get a vaccine multiplied by maybe 75,000 doses shipped per week, , , , how many weeks?


----------



## NoQuarter

Wow, can't imagine living near 700,000 people. Much less 700,000 eligible ( over 65 + healthcare and pre existing types). I can see where enough vaccine for everyone could be a problem. You might want to tell your family members to not visit for football games etc. till you can feel more safe. That distancing stuff may be your best bet. Good luck, hope you and yours stay well.


----------



## Rice_Guy

NoQuarter said:


> . You might want to tell your family members to not visit for football games etc. . . That distancing stuff may be your best bet.


_a part of the story is missing, the wife, brother in laws, sister in law, kids, her dad really really really love Packers for long enough to , , , , 
well marriage is work ,,,, however I wonder about opening the windows and turning the vent fans on for the next play off this weekend_


----------



## sour_grapes

Rice_Guy said:


> _a part of the story is missing, the wife, brother in laws, sister in law, kids, her dad really really really love Packers for long enough to , , , ,
> well marriage is work ,,,, however I wonder about opening the windows and turning the vent fans on for the next play off this weekend_



Sorry for your troubles, Rice.

Maybe we should root for the Pack to lose this weekend, so you don't have to suffer through the Superbowl!


----------



## VinesnBines

Tell me about counting. Been doing that all the way through. Son that lives with us had a couple co-workers test positive in August. Got through that. Every time he visits a friend I start counting. I count after we see our daughter (not since Christmas and we all wore masks). Made a grave error in judgement and had a couple in the house for about one hour right after Christmas. Found out later that one of them had possibly been exposed....that was a long 14 days.

Rice_Guy, one of the families in our community keep getting together; seven tested positive and they buried my 82 year old former co-worker last Friday.


----------



## mainshipfred

sour_grapes said:


> Sorry for your troubles, Rice.
> 
> Maybe we should root for the Pack to lose this weekend, so you don't have to suffer through the Superbowl!



My gut tells me they will have to suffer through the Superbowl.


----------



## sour_grapes

mainshipfred said:


> My gut tells me they will have to suffer through the Superbowl.



From your lips to God's ears!


----------



## mainshipfred

sour_grapes said:


> From your lips to God's ears!



Just because I don't understand your response, all I was referring to was I think Green Bay is going to win.


----------



## sour_grapes

mainshipfred said:


> Just because I don't understand your response, all I was referring to was I think Green Bay is going to win.



I understood your post.

"From your lips to God's ears" is an idiom that means "I sure hope that what you said comes true!"


----------



## wood1954

Rice_Guy said:


> I envy you ,,,,, and I am counting the days
> 
> 
> well let’s count ,,, if the 38 YO daughter tested positive Thursday
> and the wife’s clan came for football playoffs Saturday (which had food/ drinks),,, that is five days
> and if she was symptomatic enough to take the test that would have probably been Tuesday so that makes three days from football
> and the incubation for most viruses is two to three days so, possibly one day, possibly zero days from football
> - -.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-
> distribution is interesting since three times this week the clinic has said they don’t have any vaccine in the building or just wait ”My Chart” will notify you when it is your time, _however _the wife got round one at this clinic with a magic phone number from the school superintendent
> well let’s count, if the age cut off drops to 65 on Monday and that adds another 700,000 eligible to get a vaccine multiplied by maybe 75,000 doses per week, , , , how many weeks?


Right, living in Waupaca means I’ll be lucky to get vaccinated by May


----------



## Rice_Guy

wood1954 said:


> Right, living in Waupaca means I’ll be lucky to get vaccinated by May


I have been amazed how clinics have had access to the vaccine. _ALSO _There are other companies who are working on a lower technology normal storage temperature dose (J&J). It will come! ,,,, In Waupaca I would hope for our age group to be vaccinated by the end of March. Another up side for you is that there are quite a few folks who still don’t want to have it, just because we have 700K eligible Monday doesn’t mean they will take it.
Now to complicate the picture, Dr Fauci in today’s press conference mentioned that the strain developed in South Africa is showing resistance to monoclonal antibodies, ,,,, *current vaccine may not be as effective!* ,,,, He also pointed out that RNA viruses evolve fairly fast so as long as a high percent of the population can get infected we will see more adaptation of this organism to its food source. ,,,,,,


----------



## GreenEnvy22

Rice_Guy said:


> I have been amazed how clinics have had access to the vaccine. _ALSO _There are other companies who are working on a lower technology normal storage temperature dose (J&J). It will come! ,,,, In Waupaca I would hope for our age group to be vaccinated by the end of March. Another up side for you is that there are quite a few folks who still don’t want to have it, just because we have 700K eligible Monday doesn’t mean they will take it.
> Now to complicate the picture, Dr Fauci in today’s press conference mentioned that the strain developed in South Africa is showing resistance to monoclonal antibodies, ,,,, *current vaccine may not be as effective!* ,,,, He also pointed out that RNA viruses evolve fairly fast so as long as a high percent of the population can get infected we will see more adaptation of this organism to its food source. ,,,,,,



Yes it's possible some strains might make some vaccines less, we don't know yet. Even if they do though, we're starting from 95% or so, this gives us quite a bit of leeway before reduced effectiveness is a problem. Even at 75% the vaccine would still be wildly successful. They were aiming for 50% or higher in development.

In less good news, the LTC my wife works at has now been in outbreak for over a week. She works in Laundry which hasn't had any staff get sick, until today (well confirmed today).
So now we're much more nervous, and work is begging her to work more often because they are so short staffed. She's had one shot of pfizer but #2 won't be for almost 3 weeks.
Balancing needs of the LTC and its residents vs health of her and our family is a delicate and stressful discussion.


----------



## Darrell Hawley

wood1954 said:


> Right, living in Waupaca means I’ll be lucky to get vaccinated by May


We called yesterday at 5:45am and got through, so my wife and I (65+) will get our first shots on Feb 25. Happy about that.
Moving into our new house next weekend, but already moved all the wine equipment into the wine room and moving as much as possible this weekend into the basement that's unfinished. But, of course, Sunday afternoon will be watching the Packers play. The first 3 words that all my 4 grandchildren spoke were "ma ma", "da da" and "TOUCHDOWN"(with both hands in the air). That's that way it is in Green Bay.


----------



## Rice_Guy

yup ! , hard to operate from a logic point and keep the emotion out.


GreenEnvy22 said:


> . . . . She's had one shot of pfizer but #2 won't be for almost 3 weeks. Balancing needs of the LTC and its residents vs health of her and our family is a delicate and stressful discussion.


good news! on the daughter so far symptoms are just “very tired”. Looks like she will do the two weeks and be back to normal. Secondly is she had one day for test results (not three days) so we probably did not host a spreader football playoff event. Third gramps got scheduled for shot #1 on Monday so I am the main one who is at risk.

_. . . . . . . awfully hard to not have a fear based reaction . . . . ._


----------



## VinesnBines

If you have to stay in the house when hosting the playoffs, you can wear a mask or a double mask. It will protect you to some degree. Maybe others will take the hint.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Green envy said it well, ,,, a “delicate and stressful discussion”, ,,, football is a _TRADITION _which has to involve food and drinks and yelling. Some how the masks come off after going to the kitchen.


VinesnBines said:


> If you have to stay in the house when hosting the playoffs, you can wear a mask or a double mask. It will protect you to some degree. Maybe others will take the hint.


Maybe there is another choice, camping till it’s over.


----------



## VinesnBines

Take loads of vitamin d3, Pepcid, zinc and vitamin c. Mega doses of d3 have been shown to help the severity and possibly decrease chances of contracting COVID. 
I like the camping idea best!


----------



## ibglowin

Some interesting research that the OTC sleep aid Melatonin can help individuals.









Melatonin a Promising Candidate for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19


After adjusting for comorbidities, melatonin usage was associated with reduced risk




consultqd.clevelandclinic.org


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> Some interesting research that the OTC sleep aid Melatonin can help individuals.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Melatonin a Promising Candidate for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19
> 
> 
> After adjusting for comorbidities, melatonin usage was associated with reduced risk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> consultqd.clevelandclinic.org



Interesting. I'll take a small dose every so often if I wake up in the middle of the night and can't get back to sleep. I went to buy some a couple weeks back and there wasn't any. Perhaps this is why and I'm just late to the party...


----------



## ibglowin

My go to source is in stock!



https://www.costco.com/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10701&storeId=10301&langId=-1&krypto=%2BaWkStNVKFl%2FXwj9F7aGvhhgqpLVUhZ%2BrMx%2BgUnDWsR%2FGtB%2F95Xe71Aj%2Fns9C17wJflJ%2FenuO6mVGFA4iXpFp8EAK%2BD3jCaJcefDmteZYtg%3D&ddkey=http%3ALogoff







Boatboy24 said:


> Interesting. I'll take a small dose every so often if I wake up in the middle of the night and can't get back to sleep. I went to buy some a couple weeks back and there wasn't any. Perhaps this is why and I'm just late to the party...


----------



## Boatboy24

ibglowin said:


> My go to source is in stock!
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.costco.com/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10701&storeId=10301&langId=-1&krypto=%2BaWkStNVKFl%2FXwj9F7aGvhhgqpLVUhZ%2BrMx%2BgUnDWsR%2FGtB%2F95Xe71Aj%2Fns9C17wJflJ%2FenuO6mVGFA4iXpFp8EAK%2BD3jCaJcefDmteZYtg%3D&ddkey=http%3ALogoff



Ooh! 5mg! The strong stuff! I think I take either 2 or 3.


----------



## ibglowin

LOL 

Melatonin, the gateway drug to sleep!

You can break these in half easily if you want.


----------



## bstnh1

Got online when the registration for shots opened here in NH and scored big time. My wife and I get our first shots on Wednesday, Feb. 3.


----------



## ibglowin

Find out where your state sits......

*States ranked by percentage of COVID-19 vaccines administered: Jan. 22*





__





States ranked by percentage of COVID-19 vaccines administered: Nov. 30


Wisconsin has administered the highest percentage of COVID-19 vaccines it has received, according to the CDC's COVID-19 vaccine distribution and administration data tracker.




www.beckershospitalreview.com


----------



## Boatboy24

Something very wrong here in Virginia. While I know a few people who have gotten theirs, most people I know can't even get an appointment. And those with appointments aren't scheduled to get theirs until late February.


----------



## VinesnBines

My take on Virginia (I am a reformed state employee though not in the Department of Health) is the underfunding of state agencies by the General Assembly. It is a decades old problem that comes to light in the face of emergencies. Recall the shambles of unemployment in Virginia in the early days of the pandemic?


----------



## Boatboy24

VinesnBines said:


> My take on Virginia (I am a reformed state employee though not in the Department of Health) is the underfunding of state agencies by the General Assembly. It is a decades old problem that comes to light in the face of emergencies. Recall the shambles of unemployment in Virginia in the early days of the pandemic?



Our governor is a doctor. One would think we could do better than 49 out of 50.


----------



## ibglowin

Just got a TXT from NM-DOH. I am signed up for 1st Vaccine this coming Tuesday afternoon.

Our State created a single database for everyone to sign up. If you have any underlying conditions you can tick boxes for a list of common ones.


----------



## Kraffty

@Boatboy24 we're right there with you, just don't understand. Lori started checking into it and we don't even have a vaccination site yet in town. I did read this morn a couple of sites are opening soon.


----------



## ibglowin

Interactive map of the US with how your State is doing with the vaccine rollout. (ignore the robot comment)









More Than 11.9 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker


Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories




www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Boatboy24

Well, my Dad got annoyed and sent his Dr an email last night. Got a call at 8am this morning to schedule and is going in on Wed.


----------



## cmason1957

ibglowin said:


> Interactive map of the US with how your State is doing with the vaccine rollout. (ignore the robot comment)
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> More Than 11.9 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker
> 
> 
> Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 US states and territories
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.bloomberg.com



I like your link better than others i have seen. In the others Missouri is number 1 (or is that Number 50) you want some vaccine, get outta here.


----------



## ibglowin

Well...............


----------



## sour_grapes

Wasn't sure if this belonged here or on the Meme thread!


----------



## mainshipfred

sour_grapes said:


> Wasn't sure if this belonged here or on the Meme thread!
> 
> View attachment 71017



Either one, it's great, it could have use hot dogs as well and I'm sure more.


----------



## cmason1957

sour_grapes said:


> Wasn't sure if this belonged here or on the Meme thread!
> 
> View attachment 71017


Pretty much any processed meat could be there.


----------



## wood1954

Got my vaccine yesterday, Walgreens in my area is taking appointments on line, they have 100 doses a week I think in my small town. Hope everyone gets vaccinated, it really doesn’t change your DNA like a friend claims.


----------



## bstnh1

wood1954 said:


> Got my vaccine yesterday, Walgreens in my area is taking appointments on line, they have 100 doses a week I think in my small town. Hope everyone gets faxed, it really doesn’t change your DNA like a friend claims.
> [/QUOTE It doesn't change your DNA??? Well, surely it must have a chip in it that the government is implanting so they can see your every move, right?  I got two shots of the real thing in the Astrazeneca trial and have gotten my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine. So far I have not grown any horns, my eyeballs have not fallen out, I haven't developed webbed feet and I get no strange tingles when I'm near a cell tower. Maybe all that stuff is in the second shot, eh?


----------



## wood1954

Has there been a dumbing down in schools regarding science education in the last fifty years? It sure seems like there are a lot of scientific illiterate citizens nowadays


----------



## NoQuarter

WOW could not believe this is not commonly known. Seems the senate knows though.

Dr Kory Ivermectin
COVID 19 Doctors Speak Out 013 - Dr Kory - Pleads For Review


----------



## bstnh1

NoQuarter said:


> WOW could not believe this is not commonly known. Seems the senate knows though.
> 
> Dr Kory Ivermectin
> COVID 19 Doctors Speak Out 013 - Dr Kory - Pleads For Review



The info is out there. But that's not the whole story. There's a lot of negatives and unknowns for this drug's use in treating Covid. My dog takes it as a heartworm preventative.


----------



## NoQuarter

I have a couple bottles in fridge myself. I wont start taking it myself till I really need it. Never harmed any of my animals though.
I have not seen a Dr. since leaving the military in 2003. During those 20 years I had enough medicine to last a couple lifetimes. I would rather get old and die at home with family. Nice to live where "when" I still have a choice about that. It is good to see all the old folks around here that wanted those vaccines get them. N.Florida and S.Georgia has been on the ball.


----------



## Rice_Guy

I listened to sen Johnson’s hearing on Fox live. My biggest memory was Johnson yelling at a fellow senator for being a liar and after that Johnson asked all the questions, no other Republicans or Democrats were still there.


NoQuarter said:


> WOW could not believe this is not commonly known. Seems the senate knows though.
> Dr Kory Ivermectin
> COVID 19 Doctors Speak Out: Dr Kory -


I have reviewed journal publications and had a time deadline. If the article Dr Kory refers to passed the review it would be done by now and should be available on line. If the several reviewers found that the article was missing data or jumped to conclusions the article would be sent back so Dr Kory could fix it.
On my part, I trust the scientific method. The key to scientific method is “can the model drug/ theory be reproduced over and over?” or is there some artifact in the test which was actually more important to the observed outcome?
The rich parts of the planet are doing a vaccine as fast as the vaccine is available so “we” should be out of this this year. Poorer parts of the planet are predicted to take till 2023 to get out of the pandemic, ,,, so if ivermectin works (95%, or 75%, or 50%, or 1%) we will find out.


----------



## ibglowin

WOw, the Covid 19 Booster shot is not for sissies......

That is all.


----------



## Kraffty

You - take - shots - like a GIRL ..........!


----------



## joeswine

Just got my first shot Monday, go back in march for the second. process was spot on well controlled by the National guards had a 9:45 approximant and was out by 10;45. we'll see if there any after effects.


----------



## CDrew

ibglowin said:


> WOw, the Covid 19 Booster shot is not for sissies......
> That is all.



But, please everyone, don't let @ibglowin 's report here, even stated in jest, keep you from getting your vaccine. I've had both shots too, and didn't think it was bad at all. 2nd shot had 24 hours of a mildly sore arm. Not even enough to alter my day's activities at all. 

Please get vaccinated as soon as you can, when your turn comes.


----------



## Kraffty

Lori and I are still a group or two away but plan on being at the front of the line as soon as we're allowed.


----------



## REDRUM

Here in Australia they're only just starting the vaccine rollout to frontline workers etc. But we've been EXTREMELY lucky with keeping the virus at bay (well, a combination of luck and good public policy) .. only a few sporadic cases in recent months of it getting out into the community. I think at the moment there are 0 community cases, with the only infections being people in medi-hotel quarantine who have come into the country from abroad. Daily life is pretty much normal (save for a few concessions like signing in when visiting somewhere, to aid contact tracing) - restaurants, bars, sporting events etc all good.


----------



## ibglowin

I would rather have the flu for 24-36 hours than be on a Vent or worse. I haven't seen my 86YO mom in assisted living for 14 months or my oldest daughter in San Antonio for that matter.

Got my second dose yesterday morning. Started running a fever, chills, headache, body ache around 4AM. Even with Tylenol fever has slowly crept up all day today. Now up to 100.7 which is not terrible.

The booster shingles shot I got last summer did me in worse actually. Much more chills and a fever over 101 for ~24 hours and just didn't feel right for about a week.

As a 62YO Male with a few underlying conditions there is no way I would not get the vaccine. I will take my chances with it over the real virus any day of the week.

I got the Moderna version which they say has a bit more side effects as it has a little higher dosage of mRNA in each syringe.

YMMV.


----------



## bstnh1

I had the first dose of Pfizer last month. Had some chills and a fever 0f 100.3 for a day. End of second day I was fine. The way I see it - it's a lot better than being on a ventilator or getting a ride in a hearse.


----------



## bstnh1

bstnh1 said:


> I had the first dose of Pfizer last month. Had some chills and a fever 0f 100.3 for a day. End of second day I was fine. The way I see it - it's a lot better than being on a ventilator or getting a ride in a hearse. Second shot coming up this Friday.


----------



## winemanden

Had two shots over the Christmas period. No problems at all, neither me nor my wife. Some people seem to be affected, but I think that their body is just doing it's job. Stay safe people!


----------



## ibglowin

Fever broke during the night. This morning feeling almost normal. Sore arm where I got the shot still.

Time to live life once again without fear!


----------



## GreginND

I'm getting the J&J jab tomorrow. Finally!


----------



## BernardSmith

I got mine Thursday and my arm was a wee bit achy Thursday night and Friday morning.


----------



## sour_grapes

I've had my first shot of Pfizer/BioNTech last Wed.  No reaction to speak of, just a small amount of soreness at the injection site. (Of course, this was only the first shot!)


----------



## CDrew

GreginND said:


> I'm getting the J&J jab tomorrow. Finally!



Great to hear. Nice thing is, you'll have basically a complete response in 2 weeks. Makes for a very appealing vaccine, where every week makes a difference.


----------



## Old Corker

Got my 1st shot of Pfizer last Wednesday. Soreness in the arm for a couple of days as the only side effect. CVS schedules both shots at the same time so I get my second on the 26th. Was never more excited about getting a shot.


----------



## wpt-me

Got first shot Feb 12 getting second this Fri Mar 12.

NBill


----------



## Cap Puncher

I would still go for the Pfizer or Moderna (if you have a choice). I got Pfizer back in late December. Their efficacy data is far better (even 14 days after 1st shot). Also, Pfizer and Moderna efficacy is based on "any symptoms". The J&J efficacy was based on moderate to severe disease. That is more apples to oranges when comparing efficacy rates. If you have a choice great, most places don't give a choice.


----------



## heatherd

Got the first shot of Moderna on 2/14 and I was a mess for a week and a half with chills, fever, joint pain, headache, and fatigue. My injection site was hot, rashy, swollen, and discolored, and still is discolored nearly a month later. Still better than dead.


----------



## Mrose

I received my 2nd Pfizer shot Monday, no problems with 1st or 2nd shot.


----------



## VinesnBines

Everyone is all over the place with reactions. My husband got the Pfizer and was fatigued and achy four days after the first shot. His arm was sore for a couple days. After the second shot, he woke up three days later miserable with body aches. He was pretty much better the next day. Our youngest son just got the first of the Moderna and his arm was sore for two days and he kept waking up drenched in sweat. I got the first shot of the Pfizer on Tuesday and my arm hurt a tiny bit Tuesday night. I might have been a little fatigued Wednesday night but so far nothing else. 

All in all much better than sick or worse. Just as my husband was going to take his first shot we heard that an classmate of his had died with COVID the day before.


----------



## olusteebus




----------



## GreginND

I got my Johnson & Johnson shot. So far so good. A sore arm and just a little fatigue for only one day and now I feel great. 

Comparing efficacy for this vaccine to the others is really apples and oranges. They were tested under very different conditions with different strains of the virus out and about. For hospitalizations and deaths, it is equal to the others. Frankly, I took the first one I could get and I'm glad I did.


----------



## sour_grapes

GreginND said:


> I got my Johnson & Johnson shot. So far so good. A sore arm and just a little fatigue for only one day and now I feel great.
> 
> Comparing efficacy for this vaccine to the others is really apples and oranges. They were tested under very different conditions with different strains of the virus out and about. For hospitalizations and deaths, it is equal to the others. Frankly, I took the first one I could get and I'm glad I did.



I got a Pfizer/BioNTech, but I absolutely agree with you: The vaccine I recommend is the one that is offered to you!


----------



## olusteebus

I sure did not shop around. Moderna was the first to be easily accessible and my wife and I jumped on it. My wife had minor reactions on the second shot. I had none on either. A friend said if you don't have a reaction, it isn't working - I say that it just means my immune system is working well. Now mind you, I am not a doctor - but I have made some wine. That is proof enough that I am a pretty smart dude. Huh?


----------



## VinesnBines

olusteebus said:


> IA friend said if you don't have a reaction, it isn't working - I say that it just means my immune system is working well.


Like everything else in this pandemic; nobody knows anything for certain. Don't sweat it; do your part: wear a mask properly; get in line for your jab - don't be silly and say "I don't want to jump the line" or "I could get one but I want to wait for my spouse" (Both from clergy members, by the way.) Everyone needs the vaccine and the faster we get it in arms the sooner we can knock it back.


----------



## wpt-me

Got second shot today, done , hopefully now protected. G.F. has many issues

Bill


----------



## ibglowin

It takes 2 weeks post booster shot for full protection but yes, welcome to the club!  



wpt-me said:


> Got second shot today, done , hopefully now protected. G.F. has many issues
> 
> Bill


----------



## bakervinyard

My wife and I got our first shot 10 days ago. Second shot is scheduled for the end of the month. We received the Moderna vaccine. We both just had a sore arm for about 48 hours. 
on the debate about which vaccine to get. Let me tell you what my son said who is a scientist with a major pharmaceutical company. He said “ Get the first vaccine that you’re able to. Then you know you won’t die.”
Bakervinyard


----------



## ibglowin

I could not agree more!



bakervinyard said:


> He said “ Get the first vaccine that you’re able to. Then you know you won’t die.”
> Bakervinyard


----------



## joeswine

get my second shot next Tuesday, *DONE.  *


----------



## Dennis Griffith

The doctor told me that the reaction will be worse if you have already had covid. I know of one person that had it last year, and this year got moderately sick when she got the second (Moderna) shot. I'm waiting for my second in a few days.


----------



## Jovimaple

I get my J&J in 3 hours!


----------



## cmason1957

Got the email late last night to sign up for the shot. Missouri has started doing what they call critical infrastructure folks and being in IT qualified me for it. No clue which type of vaccine it will be, until you arrive.


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## mainshipfred

Got my first one Saturday, Pfizer


----------



## ibglowin

Mrs IB got her TXT this AM and luckily she was staring at her phone when it hit. She came running from the back of the house. I had her event code entered in no time via my laptop which had everything cached from before. She goes in this Wednesday PM. Getting Moderna like I received. A BFF down the street got the TXT and didn't see it until about 10 mins later and all the slots were taken already. If that happens you wait for someone to cancel and if no cancelations they will send you another event code sometime in the future. Bottom line is you have to be paying attention and fast.........


----------



## VinesnBines

mainshipfred said:


> Got my first one Saturday, Pfizer


What county in Virginia are you in Fred? I got mine as 16-64 with underlying condition, same for my youngest son. My daughter is getting the J&J on Thursday; I think work related.

Our health district is having trouble filling all the slots and are starting to post the extras 24 hours before available. I think that is working well.

My daughter and youngest son have been the weak links in the immediate family. Neither could work from home and several of my daughter's staff had COVID over the last few months. What a relief!


----------



## joeswine

Just got my final shot


----------



## Rice_Guy

got the second dose of Moderna yesterday  so far no reaction, less sore than the first one was.
EDIT, well at 18 hours felt chilled, ,, and at 27 hours dr mom thinks I am at 100.4F, ,,,
at 38 hours feel normal/ 98F ,,, it is interesting how variable the response is.

Time for future looking, the youngest daughter wants to get married at StAugustine in may. The look is that we avoid the airport and drive, it’s only 19 hours of holding one hand with the wife. . . . . . _and the vinters club is scheduling a trip down the Danube ? ? ? retirement celebration when the wife retires ? ? ? _


----------



## mainshipfred

VinesnBines said:


> What county in Virginia are you in Fred? I got mine as 16-64 with underlying condition, same for my youngest son. My daughter is getting the J&J on Thursday; I think work related.
> 
> Our health district is having trouble filling all the slots and are starting to post the extras 24 hours before available. I think that is working well.
> 
> My daughter and youngest son have been the weak links in the immediate family. Neither could work from home and several of my daughter's staff had COVID over the last few months. What a relief!



Fairfax, the entire process went very smoothly. I'm 65 but people of all ages were getting their shots.


----------



## VinesnBines

I knew Fairfax County was using their own system of notification. Early on in the Mount Rogers Health District, it was better to get on the individual pharmacy waiting list but now the health district has caught up with scheduling. While the state really hasn't started the "mass clinics" the local health districts are doing their own mass clinics. 

Glad everyone seems to be getting a shot at a jab! Congrats Fred and everyone!


----------



## Jovimaple

Hubby and I both got J&J yesterday. Slight fatigue, maybe a touch of muscle soreness. It's been more than 24 hours so I am hopeful the side effect window is passed. Hubby's mom got her 2nd (Pfizer) a couple weeks ago and wasn't feeling well for a couple days. My folks get their 2nds this weekend (Pfizer) and next (Moderna) so we'll see how they react. Now the pressure is on to clean my house because Mom says they're coming over to visit in mid-April!!


----------



## Old Corker

It seems like, and this is just my impression, no one has told me this. But it seems like in Texas rural areas there are a lot of people who are eligible but don't want the shot. That leaves a lot of appointments untaken and the providers *really* want to give the shots. So they are vaccinating anyone who can finagle an appointment. My wife cyber-stalked all of the registration services in our area until she got us appointments. I'm 65 and she has underlying condition. She was then able to get our two youngest sons (22 and 20) appointments just by filling out the forms. She drove them to the over there, worked their way through the line and they got their shots. No one asked them about their age. Only confirmed their address and ID. It helps when you have an unemployed mama bear advocating for you. I hear it is hard to get appointments in the big cities here but we didn't have to go too far to get ours.


----------



## Jovimaple

Old Corker said:


> It seems like, and this is just my impression, no one has told me this. But it seems like in Texas rural areas there are a lot of people who are eligible but don't want the shot. That leaves a lot of appointments untaken and the providers *really* want to give the shots. So they are vaccinating anyone who can finagle an appointment.


I have read that certain segments of the population don't want to get vaccinated. Struggling with that with some friends with whom I want to hang out but they aren't interested in getting vaccinated. I am hoping peer pressure (everyone is doing it!) will convince them. In the meantime, I am taking care of me and my family and living my best life!


----------



## Mcjeff

My lunch group , most of whom are now retired (I’m the young one and still have a ways to go), we are all sharing when we get our shots and planning a get together when we are all covered. I’m getting my first shot tonight. You need multiple sources of influence to get people to change. I agree pressure is a good one to use!


----------



## BernardSmith

Pressure may be one method but modeling is a better one, in my opinion. When others see those who are vaccinated and see the benefits and none of the problems that they may have heard about from those who provide disinformation then they are likely to scramble onto the modeled band wagon rather than the garbage put out by those with a very different agenda.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Peer pressure works to get conformity. Being forced seems to create resentment.

As @BernardSmith said what is the agenda of the folks who create new information. Tribal society had Mother Earth or the Gods on mount olympus, so looking for a world view seems natural to humans. 
I use modeling at work and can measure every day if the model is working (AKA the formula in the PLC that runs the machines). I hate to say it but emotion seems to drive more folks than a stimulus -> response model. ,,, Peer pressure seems to work.


----------



## 1d10t

Even before the second dose, BNT162b2 was highly efficacious, with a vaccine efficacy of 92.6%, a finding similar to the first-dose efficacy of 92.1% reported for the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna).3



https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242



The second dose is about increasing antibody levels so they have a longer lasting effect. 'Statistically' you are better off after 2 weeks with either Phizer or Moderna than J&J. 

I'm not advocating one over the other or being stupid about exposure. None are 100%.


----------



## CDrew

1d10t said:


> Even before the second dose, BNT162b2 was highly efficacious, with a vaccine efficacy of 92.6%, a finding similar to the first-dose efficacy of 92.1% reported for the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna).3
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242
> 
> 
> 
> The second dose is about increasing antibody levels so they have a longer lasting effect. 'Statistically' you are better off after 2 weeks with either Phizer or Moderna than J&J.
> 
> I'm not advocating one over the other or being stupid about exposure. None are 100%.



There are different ways of looking at "effective". All 3 currently available vaccines, are nearly 100% at preventing hospitalization and death. So get what you can when you can. From a public heath perspective J&J has significant advantages. It's one shot, easy to store and administer and effective at 2 weeks. 

It's hard for me, working in the field, to recommend one over the other. Get what you can as soon as you can. Let's put this whole thing in the rear view mirror. Disclaimer, I got the Pfizer vaccine in December and January. But if not, I'd take the J&J today. And the practicalities of one shot vs two are huge for a population based effort.


----------



## Jovimaple

1d10t said:


> Even before the second dose, BNT162b2 was highly efficacious, with a vaccine efficacy of 92.6%, a finding similar to the first-dose efficacy of 92.1% reported for the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna).3
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242
> 
> 
> 
> The second dose is about increasing antibody levels so they have a longer lasting effect. 'Statistically' you are better off after 2 weeks with either Phizer or Moderna than J&J.
> 
> I'm not advocating one over the other or being stupid about exposure. None are 100%.


We went with whatever we could get as soon as we could get it. I've been working from home but my husband has to go into the office every couple of weeks. In the last month, 2 of his direct coworkers have gotten Covid. One posted pictures on FB about his vacation down south somewhere on a beach, came back into work (without quarantining), and a few days later tested positive. Luckily, they are required to wear masks in the building, because he was standing near and talking to my husband for a few minutes when he was most likely contagious. My husband got tested after that, just for peace of mind, not only for us but also because he helps out his 80 yr old mother (who wasn't fully vaccinated yet).

The other coworker has made questionable choices in the past (dinner party during the first lockdowns, then says he has to stay home because someone at his party tested positive the next day). I haven't heard how he and his wife think they got it, but I guess they were pretty sick for the last couple of weeks. Then he was planning to come into the building this week and several coworkers went to management and said they weren't comfortable with that, even with masks.

Long story short, I feel relief that we are mostly protected against the bad choices of others. The medical community will have better data as we go along so we'll know if we need booster shots, and I'm hopeful by then the vaccine supply will have caught up to the demand.


----------



## reeflections

We got our 2nd Moderna jab 1 1/2 weeks ago. I little fever and soreness for about 24 hours. Good to go.

We are done unless a new vaccine resistant variant happens along. That's the biggest danger of all of these people making bad choices. Every time the virus is passed on, the chance of a serious mutation is increased. I hope we don't have to start over again.

I'm glad most on this forum seem to be in agreement about the seriousness of this virus and the importance of precautions. I know of other forums and groups that consider this subject "political" and will not even allow discussion.


----------



## 1d10t

CDrew said:


> There are different ways of looking at "effective".


Just passing along some info I found interesting while doing some research because my mother had a stroke and is in 'rehab'. They would treat my visits differently if I were "fully vaccinated" so the statistical anomoly between my 'paritial' status and the J&J 'full' status is a little less humorous right now. Still, even 99.9% isn't 100% and it would suck to be that .1%.


----------



## Arne

Got the first jab in Dec. At 71 still with the fire dept. Got it because of that. Second shot in Jan. Bit of a sore shoulder one day of not feeling quite right. Kathy is getting her second dose on Thursday. Hoping her reactions are small. Arne.


----------



## 1d10t

Nice, simple. If you need to help explain it to someone that just doesn't seem to WANT to understand.


----------



## reeflections




----------



## reeflections

So, besides making wine, my main hobby is playing music with friends. For the last year, we have still been playing - but outdoors and distanced. Over the winter, we have played less but any time we see a upper 50s or lower 60s in the forecast, and no rain, we light a fire pit and play and sing away.

We are all over 65 so now that we have all been vaccinated and waited a couple weeks for full efficacy, we are having our 1st indoor party at our house in over a year. 13 close friends, unmasked and hugging, sharing food and drink. Hopefully, some new vaccine resistant variant won't come along and curtail our new found freedom. But for now, it is such a relief.


----------



## sour_grapes

Just got my second shot!


----------



## winemanden

Latest scientific info from Glasgow University. The common cold virus will kill Covid if infected within 24 hours. Influenza will kill any other virus.
Maybe we should start a Flu pandemic


----------



## Kraffty

sour_grapes said:


> Just got my second shot!


Congratulations! How was your reaction compared to your first injection? Lori and I are getting our first this afternoon, finally.


----------



## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> Congratulations! How was your reaction compared to your first injection? Lori and I are getting our first this afternoon, finally.



So, my reaction was pretty mild to both shots. I have a fairly sore arm, and I slept pretty deeply/soundly, but that is all. My wife fared a bit worse: slight fever, malaise, and a bit of fatigue so far. I had a video meeting with a coworker this morning, and he came 1/2 hour late. He had his second yesterday, too, and, in his words, he "had to explore the couch a lot this morning." 

I hope you and Lori fare well!


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## Kraffty

Thanks Paul, your explanation mirrors almost exactly that of a friend I talked with yesterday. He even said the same about the comparison of his verses his wife's reaction but the general feeling of no real big deal. I think we'll just plan for a lazy afternoon and night after the second and line up a couple of good movies with popcorn and blankets. We're off to get Coronated!


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## sour_grapes

Kraffty said:


> Thanks Paul, your explanation mirrors almost exactly that of a friend I talked with yesterday. He even said the same about the comparison of his verses his wife's reaction but the general feeling of no real big deal. I think we'll just plan for a lazy afternoon and night after the second and line up a couple of good movies with popcorn and blankets. We're off to get Coronated!



Yes, good idea. Except for the aforementioned zoom meeting (whose timing was predetermined), I have taken the day off, or at least, made any work optional.


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## Darrell Hawley

Wife and I got our second shot this morning. Glad to get that over. So far today, no soreness for either of us.


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## VinesnBines

The reaction spectrum is odd. My husband had a slight reaction to both doses of the Pfizer but they were delayed by 3 days each time. Shot on Tuesday, did heavy farm work - cutting trees and hauling brush that afternoon; Friday night, fatigue, body aches.

Youngest son had one Moderna. Sore arm, woke up in a sweat several times that night. Daughter had J&J and had chills, aches, had to miss work the next day.

I had the first Pfizer on a Tuesday; same tree work - no reaction not really a sore arm. I could tell on Wednesday night that the muscle ached a bit but nothing else. Next dose on the 30th. We'll see.


----------



## Boatboy24

I got a tetanus booster today. Does that count for anything?  On the 'interesting' side, my Dr told me he expects that I'd be able to get the vaccine within the next month or so, based on what he's hearing. I'm in the "you're last in line" group, so that was welcome news, though I didn't press for more deets.


----------



## VinesnBines

Boatboy24 said:


> I got a tetanus booster today. Does that count for anything?  On the 'interesting' side, my Dr told me he expects that I'd be able to get the vaccine within the next month or so, based on what he's hearing. I'm in the "you're last in line" group, so that was welcome news, though I didn't press for more deets.


Jim, Start looking around. Some health districts are posting the extra slots. People that are working the clinics are sending out texts that they have extra slots and all are free to come. Ask around and you may fined someone who works in a pharmacy or clinic that will give you a call when they have slots. My son and daughter in law in NC are lined up for a FEMA clinic this weekend and they are the last in line there. I'm sure you will get one soon. After this weekend, all my kids will have at least one shot.


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> I got a tetanus booster today. Does that count for anything?  On the 'interesting' side, my Dr told me he expects that I'd be able to get the vaccine within the next month or so, based on what he's hearing. I'm in the "you're last in line" group, so that was welcome news, though I didn't press for more deets.





VinesnBines said:


> Jim, Start looking around. Some health districts are posting the extra slots. People that are working the clinics are sending out texts that they have extra slots and all are free to come. Ask around and you may fined someone who works in a pharmacy or clinic that will give you a call when they have slots. My son and daughter in law in NC are lined up for a FEMA clinic this weekend and they are the last in line there. I'm sure you will get one soon. After this weekend, all my kids will have at least one shot.



Although I think you are supposed to wait 2 weeks between any vaccines, even ones for different diseases.


----------



## VinesnBines

sour_grapes said:


> Although I think you are supposed to wait 2 weeks between any vaccines, even ones for different diseases.


Actually they ask that when setting up the appointments. So Jim has two weeks to work on an appointment.


----------



## Johnd

Everyone in my company that wanted the vaccine got it several weeks ago. We assembled a list of our folks, with cell phone numbers, and went to our local CVS, Walgreens, and a hospital, and put them in line for unclaimed vaccine. When folks didn't show up for the vaccine, the leftovers were distributed at the end of the day, they called our folks, they hopped in their cars and drove right over and were vaccinated. Worked pretty well for us. Here in Louisiana, we'll be open to all citizens over 16 starting on Monday.


----------



## skyfire322

I tested positive a few days ago so I'm pretty much locked in my music room. I have been writing quite a bit, but it gets a bit tiring after awhile so Netflix and Hulu are a good escape! There's nothing like finding some obscure documentary about something like the history of Roman plumbing practices at 3AM


----------



## sour_grapes

skyfire322 said:


> I tested positive a few days ago so I'm pretty much locked in my music room. I have been writing quite a bit, but it gets a bit tiring after awhile so Netflix and Hulu are a good escape! There's nothing like finding some obscure documentary about something like the history of Roman plumbing practices at 3AM



Sorry to hear that, Skyfire! Good luck on the convalescence!


----------



## Boatboy24

skyfire322 said:


> I tested positive a few days ago so I'm pretty much locked in my music room. I have been writing quite a bit, but it gets a bit tiring after awhile so Netflix and Hulu are a good escape! There's nothing like finding some obscure documentary about something like the history of Roman plumbing practices at 3AM



Hopefully, your symptoms are minimal and your recovery quick.


----------



## Kraffty

Got our first shots and reactions or lack of reactions pretty much exactly as most have reported. I was pleasantly surprised that the injection itself was painless. I put my thumb on the back of the nurses hand and told her "great shot, it felt just like you pressed your thumb lightly against my shoulder" she laughed and said "that's because that's what I did, but, in the morning, it's going to feel like I punched your shoulder with a whole bunch of thumbs!" She was right about that but really pretty minor.

As a separate thought, wouldn't it be great to see the percentages of Vaccinated vs. Un-vaccinated when they release the total new cases of Covid every day. You'd think after a while of 1,000 new cases reported, 999 un-vaccinated, 1 vaccinated person, more people would start "getting it".


----------



## ibglowin

Finally got to see my 86 YO mom in assisted living last week. First time in 16 months. That smile says it all I think.


----------



## Kraffty

I'm sure there's a great big smile under your mask too! Glad you're finally able to be with her again.


----------



## ibglowin

How is your State doing? NM created an online web portal from the get go. No calling around, no searching for a site that has shots every day. Just signup, enter your DOB, and any underlying conditions and wait for an email or TXT for your event code to get your vaccine. 
















How are the COVID-19 vaccine and booster campaigns going in your state?


The U.S. is striving to vaccinate as many people as possible against COVID-19 — and keep them up-to-date with boosters. But some states are lagging behind. See how yours is faring.




www.npr.org


----------



## bstnh1

ibglowin said:


> How is your State doing? NM created an online web portal from the get go. No calling around, no searching for a site that has shots every day. Just signup, enter your DOB, and any underlying conditions and wait for an email or TXT for your event code to get your vaccine.
> 
> 
> View attachment 72952
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How are the COVID-19 vaccine and booster campaigns going in your state?
> 
> 
> The U.S. is striving to vaccinate as many people as possible against COVID-19 — and keep them up-to-date with boosters. But some states are lagging behind. See how yours is faring.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.npr.org


NH is doing great. The governor replaced the federal CDC scheduling site with a NH developed site that's so much easier to use. Right now anyone 50 and over can schedule. In a couple of days it's opening up to anyone 30 and older.


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## Jovimaple

MN just opened up to everyone 16 and older yesterday. Sometimes tough to find appointments - there is a state website to register to get an appointment and I know some people who have gotten it that way. My county is holding clinics and I was able to sign up a few weeks ago to get mine, instead of waiting for my health care provider or the state to let me know when an appointment is available. I know of people who are getting them at Walmart and other pharmacies, but you have to be on the ball and know when they update the appointments when they know what their vaccine supply for the week will be. The appointments go very quickly! (I keep an eye out on availability because my brother is now eligible and he's looking, as are some friends and coworkers.)

I'm not sure exactly how people are prioritized. My dad is 83 and my mother in law is 80. They both are with the same health care organization (but go to different locations for their health care needs). My mother in law had her 2nd shot before my dad was even contacted to get his first. (He just got his second last week. Yay!) But given the massive challenges for this vaccine effort, I'm amazed at how quickly and well the rollout is going.


----------



## Boatboy24

Well, COVID has already cancelled opening day here in DC.


----------



## Robert R

I got my second Pfizer shot Tuesday morning. Had a slight fever at 8:30pm, 103.4 by 4:00 am. Yesterday was spent in my chair under a blanket, feeling like I'd been run over by a herd of elephants in the Sahara at high noon. Fever broke during the night and i felt well enough to go in to the office. My wife and her 88-yo mom got their's Tuesday afternoon, only had sore shoulders.


----------



## BernardSmith

Got my second Moderna shot yesterday and I feel fine. Not sure if that is a good sign or not. Not so good if it suggests that my body's response to the second jab did not recognize what was in the first shot... But fine if your body may or may not respond AS IF you are infected when you get the second shot.


----------



## mainshipfred

Got my second Pfister this morning. Time will tell of the affects.


----------



## sour_grapes

mainshipfred said:


> Got my second *Pfister* this morning. Time will tell of the affects.



Did they inject you in the Delta-oid muscle? Did it make you Moen? 

Congrats, Fred!


----------



## mainshipfred

sour_grapes said:


> Did they inject you in the Delta-oid muscle? Did it make you Moen?
> 
> Congrats, Fred!



Clever as usual Paul! No it was just an American Standard shot and pretty Peerless. Although waiting inline outside it was a little Kohler than I would have liked.


----------



## sour_grapes

Well played, Fred!


----------



## Snafflebit

of course I get a teatnus shot right before April 1 when I am eligible for the damn Covid shot. Doctor says I have to wait 2 weeks


----------



## Boatboy24

Snafflebit said:


> of course I get a teatnus shot right before April 1 when I am eligible for the damn Covid shot. Doctor says I have to wait 2 weeks



I did the same. Cannot kick myself enough. Counting down to later this coming week when I'm eligible again.


----------



## Boatboy24

Well, we said 'screw it' and went to Williamsburg yesterday to enjoy Busch Gardens for Friday and Saturday. First night in a hotel and first day in an amusement park since 2019. The park is operating at limited capacity, but sadly, is staffed as such as well. Certainly got our fix of walking around, taking in the park and getting a few rides, but not as many as we would want (always the case though). Still, an enjoyable 40 hours or so out of the house. Stay tuned to see if we're all coughing up a lung in a few days. A pic from lunch today. Beer and a chaser, COVID style. Bells Two Hearted and some hand sanitizer.


----------



## Ty520

BernardSmith said:


> Got my second Moderna shot yesterday and I feel fine. Not sure if that is a good sign or not. Not so good if it suggests that my body's response to the second jab did not recognize what was in the first shot... But fine if your body may or may not respond AS IF you are infected when you get the second shot.



I am hearing reports now (anecdotal so far) that a strong reaction more often than not tends to occur in people who got COVID; i don't think it is a sign one way or another as to its efficacy


----------



## Boatboy24

Venting in frustration - we are so close to being out of the woods, and now are seeing setbacks. My son plays on 2 baseball teams - one travel team and one 'house' team. The two organizations are affiliated. Every game so far this season has been rained out. We are back from a short Easter break and had a practice on Monday and a house game tonight. I dropped my son off an hour ahead for warmups and batting practice. 20 minutes later, he's calling me saying I have to pick him up and he can't play tonight. Turns out a kid on his travel team (that had practice on Monday night) tested positive last night. No further decisions at this point, but obviously he isn't playing tonight. He most likely won't be able to play on Saturday, and the entire travel team will probably miss the double header scheduled for Sunday. Could be out next week too. The poor kid is heartbroken. We got through all spring/summer and fall seasons without a single case in these leagues. On the bright side, I get shot #1 Friday morning if I don't come down with COVID by then.


----------



## cmason1957

I got shot #2 of Pfizer today. So far nothing but a sore arm. My wife and 94 year old dad born had Pfizer and no major after effects. So I am hopeful. I did read an article that said most folks over 56 have little side effects.


----------



## sour_grapes

Boatboy24 said:


> Venting in frustration - we are so close to being out of the woods, and now are seeing setbacks.



This. We gotta just hang on a bit longer!


----------



## Boatboy24

sour_grapes said:


> This. We gotta just hang on a bit longer!



So, news got worse. Turns out his teammate didn't test positive, but the teammate's sibling had symptoms on Monday and went for a test. Subsequently, said teammate was brought to practice Monday night. Teammate's sibling's test came back positive today. Teammate started showing symptoms yesterday and got tested today. Irresponsible parents! Ugh!


----------



## ibglowin

Hope the kids are wearing mask (properly) at all times! 

For the longest time (like 6 mo) last year our highest rates of infection were not in the usual 20-29 age bracket but the 10-19 age bracket. It was like parents didn't seem to care if their kids were out playing with their friends cause they are immune to the virus and if they do get it there won't be much consequence. Well then we started seeing a spike in the 30-39 age bracket as the kids were then spreading it to their parents......... 

On one quick trip to Smiths a few months back I counted 12 kids out and about playing with friends and not a single one had a mask on!



Boatboy24 said:


> So, news got worse. Turns out his teammate didn't test positive, but the teammate's sibling had symptoms on Monday and went for a test. Subsequently, said teammate was brought to practice Monday night. Teammate's sibling's test came back positive today. Teammate started showing symptoms yesterday and got tested today. Irresponsible parents! Ugh!


----------



## cmason1957

Boatboy24 said:


> So, news got worse. Turns out his teammate didn't test positive, but the teammate's sibling had symptoms on Monday and went for a test. Subsequently, said teammate was brought to practice Monday night. Teammate's sibling's test came back positive today. Teammate started showing symptoms yesterday and got tested today. Irresponsible parents! Ugh!



This kind of irresponsibility is making this hard to fight, for sure. I don't get it. I know when my daughter suspected her kids had been exposed (and then of course her, indirectly) she made everyone stay home and play alone in the yard. They even canceled camping trips. That's what you gotta do, it's called being a responsible adult parent. No fun, but sometimes you gotta make some harder decisions. Oh well. I suppose this to shall pass.


----------



## Boatboy24

cmason1957 said:


> This kind of irresponsibility is making this hard to fight, for sure. I don't get it. I know when my daughter suspected her kids had been exposed (and then of course her, indirectly) she made everyone stay home and play alone in the yard. They even canceled camping trips. That's what you gotta do, it's called being a responsible adult parent. No fun, but sometimes you gotta make some harder decisions. Oh well. I suppose this to shall pass.



Yep. We have the joyful duty of informing the kids that not only can they not attend sporting events this weekend, but the social activities they had planned will have to be missed as well. Likely the same for all of next week. We were supposed to meet some friends at a brewery (w/ lots of outdoor space) on Saturday and now have to skip that. In addition, my scheduled vaccination for tomorrow is now at risk. Going for a rapid test later. Ugh!


----------



## ibglowin

Those are pretty worthless (high rate of false -) unless your are actively showing signs/symptoms.



Boatboy24 said:


> Going for a rapid test later. Ugh!


----------



## opus345

There were no after effects from first Pfizer injection. The main problem was the procedure. No, the nurses were aces, it was the patient who was the problem. I have had severe needle phobia (Trypanophobia) for a number of years. The nurse rolled her eyes when I sat down and told her I had rules. "Please don't show me what is going on and don't talk about it". She sticks me and then sez, "Wow, do you always get a big welt when you get shot?" I looked at her with big eyes and said through my mask, "I don't know, I haven't had a shot in like 10/15 years!" She then puts band aid on and tells me to go sit in the special observation area. Not in the next room with everyone else, but 5 feet away from where they are administering injections. Texting my wife about the progress, the nurse stops by every couple of minutes to ask if I'm doing OK. I looked at her and said, "I think your violating the rule about talking about it". Managed to not hyperventilate and escaped after 15 minutes.

Got second Pfizer last night. No drama this time. Dragging a little this morning. Could also have been the celebratory wine consumption.

And then in the WTF department, I read about this, "Pfizer unveils its *oral *SARS-CoV-2 inhibitor"


----------



## joeswine

Yes , this to shall pass


----------



## Old Corker

We are sooo close in my household. All four of us have had two Pfizer shots and my wife and I will pass the 14 day incubation period this weekend. We may go out and eat food not prepared in our home for the first time in over a year. There's a local vineyard/winery we like to support that has a pretty darn good restaurant attached to it. It's the last place we went before the pandemic hit so fitting.


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## Boatboy24

Well, a good day today. I got my first shot this morning. And I just learned that the county health department has completed their assessment/investigation and we are clear to play ball this weekend.


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## mainshipfred

Got my second shot last Saturday. Wasn't sick, sore or have a headache and my appetite was fine I was just exhausted on Sunday and cat napped most of the day. However I was out of town with work the prior Thursday and Friday and Saturday was pretty much spent on work as well so it could have been the cause. Woke up Monday morning as if nothing had happened.


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## Kantuckid

A NYT's article detailed the % of people in the trials who had what after effects from Pfizer & Moderna vaccines for both 1st & 2nd shots. Both vaccines have a majority of those getting a 2nd shot having after effects. Yes-it's commonplace to have 2nd shot after effects, the majority do. 
It's not an indication of ones poor health, or being an issue for most people other than that after effects can be nasty after the 2nd shot. Percentages run from 52% to 80% for those vaccines but not lasting effects that I'm talking about, these go away. 
Mine were nasty! We both had our 1st with only sore arms from Moderna. 2nd shot my wife had minor fever and not much else.
The next day, I had a serious fever, sore body joints all over and extremely lethargic, bad overall feelings plus a headache-which I never have headaches, ever. It lasted ~ 36 hours for me, less for her.
Beats being dead or in an ICU.


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## joeswine

Sounds like a normal day for me.


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## Boatboy24

2nd shot down this morning. Waiting for symptoms...


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## mainshipfred

Boatboy24 said:


> 2nd shot down this morning. Waiting for symptoms...



Hopefully you'll be like most and just not have any energy tomorrow or even better no affects whatsoever.


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## Boatboy24

mainshipfred said:


> Hopefully you'll be like most and just not have any energy tomorrow or even better no affects whatsoever.



I have no energy now, LOL! In fact, ten minutes after my post, I fell asleep.


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## Kraffty

That was the same for us. Last thursday was our second, on friday I was really feeling no effects, I had 4 beers down in the winery and was just wiped out. Headed up and had to take Lori's ribbing about looking like I'd been pounding them for hours. I pretty much called it an evening by 8:30 Fri, Sat AND Sun. No other side effects at all though.

Glad it went well for you Jim and Fred too.


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## Boatboy24

Kraffty said:


> That was the same for us. Last thursday was our second, on friday I was really feeling no effects, I had 4 beers down in the winery and was just wiped out. Headed up and had to take Lori's ribbing about looking like I'd been pounding them for hours. I pretty much called it an evening by 8:30 Fri, Sat AND Sun. No other side effects at all though.
> 
> Glad it went well for you Jim and Fred too.



Good to hear. I really wanted to open a big, fat, red wine to go w/ dinner, but decided to play it safe. Perhaps tomorrow...


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## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> Good to hear. I really wanted to open a big, fat, red wine to go w/ dinner, but decided to play it safe. Perhaps tomorrow...


Jim, which "flavor" of shot did they offer? I get my 2nd Pfizer shot tomorrow. My boss had no reaction, but then he had covid back in December, LOL.

When I went for shot #1, one nurse said no alcohol, and they stopped me from dropping out of line (I didn't sign up for that kind of suffering). The second nurse who administered the vaccination said "whoowee", just drink in moderation. I asked back, compared to normal, she said yes, so I kept it under a 12 pack for the evening...


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## Bossbaby

mainshipfred said:


> Clever as usual Paul! No it was just an American Standard shot and pretty Peerless. Although waiting inline outside it was a little Kohler than I would have liked.


Are there other wine making plumbers other than me on here ?


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## Boatboy24

ceeaton said:


> Jim, which "flavor" of shot did they offer? I get my 2nd Pfizer shot tomorrow. My boss had no reaction, but then he had covid back in December, LOL.
> 
> When I went for shot #1, one nurse said no alcohol, and they stopped me from dropping out of line (I didn't sign up for that kind of suffering). The second nurse who administered the vaccination said "whoowee", just drink in moderation. I asked back, compared to normal, she said yes, so I kept it under a 12 pack for the evening...



Pfizer. My shot was at 10am. By noon, I was feeling kinda tired. Got a second wind and powered through the rest of the work day, but by 5, was feeling tired, warm and very sleepy. I slept for about an hour. Got dinner done and have been laying low since. Just a little tired and achy now.


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## sour_grapes

Bossbaby said:


> Are there other wine making plumbers other than me on here ?



Well, I don't make my living that way, but I have done my share...


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## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> Pfizer. My shot was at 10am. By noon, I was feeling kinda tired. Got a second wind and powered through the rest of the work day, but by 5, was feeling tired, warm and very sleepy. I slept for about an hour. Got dinner done and have been laying low since. Just a little tired and achy now.


Mine's at 11:20 am this morning. Might find something to put in the crockpot for this evening since I normally feel tired, warm and sleepy by 5 pm, LOL. Slept in until 6 this morning verses the normal 4:30 am, hopefully that helps a little.


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## Boatboy24

ceeaton said:


> Mine's at 11:20 am this morning. Might find something to put in the crockpot for this evening since I normally feel tired, warm and sleepy by 5 pm, LOL. Slept in until 6 this morning verses the normal 4:30 am, hopefully that helps a little.



Between the body aches, high winds, and a malfunctioning alarm system at 12:30am, I didn't get much sleep last night. Looking forward to napping. For now, coffee.


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## heatherd

My first Moderna shot left me feeling cruddy for like nine days with fever, chills, aches, fatigue, and headache. My second was similar with the addition of nausea for three days. I'm past my two weeks now and am really happy to be able to hug vaccinated people again!


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## Kraffty

Heatherd you’re so right. We’ve had a few visitors this last month, all vaccinated, and I’d forgotten how nice it is to hug or even just shake hands with friends and family.


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## Boatboy24

Wow. Almost as quickly as it came on, it went away. Was feeling pretty lousy overnight and this morning, but some time on the couch and a Nationals win seem to have cured me!


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## ceeaton

Just hit the wall about 75 minutes ago. Was toying with the tractor (remove the deck, adjust stuff, put it back together, more of a PIA than the old tractor). Seems the wire that pulls the contraption that engages the blades is a bit looser than last year, only spins the blades at a low rpm so can't cut the lawn. Did a pulled pork, only had to add some charcoal around 2 pm. It was a real effort to pull it, plus I had to walk some of it up to a neighbor, maybe a 1/4 mile round trip. My wife got back and said "what is wrong with you"...I was falling asleep in the lawn chair.

Will be lucky to make it to 9 pm, saving grace is that my wife got shorted on sleep last night and had clinicals today, so she'll be heading to bed early vs. staying up late and studying.

Jim, nice to hear the symptoms passed pretty quickly, maybe tomorrow isn't a total loss after all. I'll warn the congregation that I might doze off during the sermon at church, maybe our pastor will take pity on me and cut it short, LOL.


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## Bossbaby

I got my second maderna shot on thursday, Sore arm the next day, the wife had headache,body aches and chills. I moved 12 yards of dirt today in and out of the back of my pickup and am now feeling some affect, normally I wouldnt be this sore,,


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## Boatboy24

ceeaton said:


> Just hit the wall about 75 minutes ago. Was toying with the tractor (remove the deck, adjust stuff, put it back together, more of a PIA than the old tractor). Seems the wire that pulls the contraption that engages the blades is a bit looser than last year, only spins the blades at a low rpm so can't cut the lawn. Did a pulled pork, only had to add some charcoal around 2 pm. It was a real effort to pull it, plus I had to walk some of it up to a neighbor, maybe a 1/4 mile round trip. My wife got back and said "what is wrong with you"...I was falling asleep in the lawn chair.
> 
> Will be lucky to make it to 9 pm, saving grace is that my wife got shorted on sleep last night and had clinicals today, so she'll be heading to bed early vs. staying up late and studying.
> 
> Jim, nice to hear the symptoms passed pretty quickly, maybe tomorrow isn't a total loss after all. I'll warn the congregation that I might doze off during the sermon at church, maybe our pastor will take pity on me and cut it short, LOL.



Hopefully, your symptoms are like mine and gone in about 24 hours. Rest and hydrate.


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## Boatboy24

@ceeaton : hopefully the symptoms are subsiding this morning.


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## ceeaton

Boatboy24 said:


> @ceeaton : hopefully the symptoms are subsiding this morning.


Believe it or not, still getting a bit too tired in the evenings, feel great in the mornings. The first dose seemed to do the same thing to me. Not sure if it was the shot or that I'm almost back to full time working this week. It's hard to ramp it up for work being semi-retired for a year, LOL.


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## sour_grapes

ceeaton said:


> Believe it or not, still getting a bit too tired in the evenings, feel great in the mornings. The first dose seemed to do the same thing to me. Not sure if it was the shot or that I'm almost back to full time working this week. It's hard to ramp it up for work being semi-retired for a year, LOL.



Hope you are feeling in fine fettle forthwith! Good luck.


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## heatherd

Kraffty said:


> Heatherd you’re so right. We’ve had a few visitors this last month, all vaccinated, and I’d forgotten how nice it is to hug or even just shake hands with friends and family.


YES! Same. I'm excited to just be near people! Hopefully my elderly parents get theirs as we're planning a reunion of their life-long friends in the summer. Haven't seen them in over a year.


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## Kraffty

Facts, we don't need no stinking Facts.....


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## newbiegj

sour_grapes said:


> Citation?


Here's 1 article from Colorado: In Colorado, They're Counting Gun Shot Fatalities as COVID Deaths


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## cmason1957

newbiegj said:


> Here's 1 article from Colorado: In Colorado, They're Counting Gun Shot Fatalities as COVID Deaths



ah yes, Townhall.com certainly a bastion of truthfulness and reliable fact reporting. 

Now where is that sarcasm font when you need it??


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## cmason1957

bugout said:


> I guess you don't believe CBS either :
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Grand County Coroner Raises Concern On Deaths Among COVID Cases
> 
> 
> The Grand County coroner is calling attention to the way the state health department is classifying some deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> denver.cbslocal.com



Well I did read the link you just posted and I got a somwhat different read than I believe you did. The folks with gunshot wounds were counted as HAVING COVID (which it says they did), but not as Covid caused the death. That seems like a pretty important number to know, how many folks have covid. I doubt we will ever agree on much regarding this subject.


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## sour_grapes

Rice_Guy said:


> looking
> at the projected curve for the virus
> it is very well known to me
> we have watched it many times
> from outside, , the glass carboy
> 
> looking
> at the growth curve for yeast innoculum
> 5 grams, , exponential, , plateau, , toss the lees
> it feels so strange waiting, , in the carboy
> looking, , out the glass window



Wow, this was an interesting flashback. It happened that @Lucyray liked a post of mine regarding that post that @Rice_Guy made in MARCH 2020, so I read it again, 14 months later. You were prescient, Rice.


----------



## sour_grapes

Sorry, I am missing something. Honest question: What point are you trying to make, exactly? You are not seriously disputing that there have been hundreds of thousands of deaths due to Covid, are you?

Here is a plot of ALL deaths over the last 4 years. No distinctions made between causes of death. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that something unusual happened over the last year. (Excess Deaths)


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## Rice_Guy

an update on an old thread,
Interesting covid numbers again, the wife was saying high school had roughly 1 out of 20 students out for covid or testing covid the week before break.

Today is the first day back in class with roughly 1 out of 9 out for covid or testing covid, ,,, and two teachers are out , ,,,,, and the principal got a positive test tonight after being at work all day.

After a bit of a laugh her observation was if I knew this would happen I would have retired last summer.


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## BernardSmith

Not quite so bad where my wife teaches high school in NYC, but a number of teachers are out with the infection and a number of kids have come down with Omicron, too. BUT teachers were all being tested both with home test kits and saliva kits yesterday and again tomorrow (and the school is reproting results to public health). I gotta say, that the virus is given all the space it needs to replicate because 30 % or more people are refusing to be vaccinated (not in my wife's school - You can teach if you are fully vaccinated or you have a medical exemption - no one asked for a religious exemption which I think might really only apply to Christian Scientists and perhaps 7th Day Adventists) but those refusing to be vaccinated to protect others are not anti-vaxxers in my book. Quite simply they are pro-virus. These tend to be the same people who refuse to wear masks. I gotta wonder whether we are living in the middle of a horror movie where this virus makes people behave in ways that the virus needs to better replicate...


----------



## wood1954

My son and his wife just got over Covid, not too bad but worse than a bad cold. My sister had her husband’s family over for Christmas and everyone got Covid from his nephew. My neighbors in their twenties both got very sick from it. Several of our friends have survived it as well. I’m vaccinated and I guess I still have to worry about it as I have mild copd. I worry that people who have a mild illness will end up with long term problems.


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## ratflinger

wood1954 said:


> My son and his wife just got over Covid, not too bad but worse than a bad cold. My sister had her husband’s family over for Christmas and everyone got Covid from his nephew. My neighbors in their twenties both got very sick from it. Several of our friends have survived it as well. I’m vaccinated and I guess I still have to worry about it as I have mild copd. I worry that people who have a mild illness will end up with long term problems.


May I ask what you and your family took to get over it?


----------



## Johnd

ratflinger said:


> I believe the purpose of the vax is to protect yourself, not others. However, I will say that I got a smallpox vax and I never expect to get smallpox. Can you say the same for this?


You‘re pretty much way over the edge of staying out of making political statements on the site, but I will say:

You did a poor job educating yourself if you expected the vaccine to 100% prevent you from contracting the original virus. That’s all I’ll say, if I really unleash, @ibglowin might have to boot me.


----------



## Dennis Griffith

I do question the total cases reported. I think they may be a bit low, and this is based on my experience. I know of 5 people within my extended family that got sick, self tested positive for Covid, and then self isolated to recover. These 5 cases went unreported as these were self tests at home. So, I think the total case count may be higher do to my experience. No proof, just an hypothesis.


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## Newbie Mel

Don’t we hear enough about covid on all our news feeds? I thought this was a wine making forum.


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## cmason1957

ratflinger said:


> I believe the purpose of the vax is to protect yourself, not others. However, I will say that I got a smallpox vax and I never expect to get smallpox. Can you say the same for this?



Part of why you got a smallpox vax and never expect to get smallpox that you may not be aware of, smallpox is generally regarded as a HUMAN alone virus. It doesn't infect other species. While Coronoviruses can and do infect other species and jump from one species to another. It is going to be much harder to eradicate. Also please investigate first smallpox vaccine was developed in about 1790, considered eradicated in the 1970's.


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## Rice_Guy

*absolutely! the world wide vaccination effort is being done to stop transmission*.
we are in a situation similar to 1940 where we grow a virus in chicken eggs (_or folks who carry long COVID_) and it replicates and evolves to become better adapted to the chicken (human), and then we have future strains develop with resistance to the host defenses.

covid in humans isn’t very different from black rot on grapes ,,, can you get a crop if you never spray your grapes?


ratflinger said:


> I believe the purpose of the vax is to protect yourself, not others. However, I will say that I got a smallpox vax and I never expect to get smallpox. Can you say the same for this?


----------



## reeflections

Newbie Mel said:


> Don’t we hear enough about covid on all our news feeds? I thought this was a wine making forum.



Well this is the "Chit Chat" section of the forum with a thread title of "Corona virus day to day" which is something that affects all of us. It would be easy enuf to skip the thread if you are not interested.


----------



## reeflections

Dennis Griffith said:


> I do question the total cases reported. I think they may be a bit low, and this is based on my experience. I know of 5 people within my extended family that got sick, self tested positive for Covid, and then self isolated to recover. These 5 cases went unreported as these were self tests at home. So, I think the total case count may be higher do to my experience. No proof, just an hypothesis.



I can't imagine that the "total cases" figure could be any kind of indicator of where the virus is at. It certainly has a lot to do with the amount of testing being done which is pretty variable. The data points I'm looking for is hospitalizations, deaths, number of vaccinated people per capita in given areas. Also, how well hospitals are equipped with staff and equipment. Even percentage of positives in a given area is more helpful.


----------



## Jovimaple

Just lost an unvaxxed friend (57, no underlying conditions except like most Americans, he was overweight) in December.

My fam all tested negative with at home tests before gathering for Christmas. Two days later, my vaxxed but not eligible for boost nephew tested positive with minor cold symptoms. None of the rest of us (all boosted) who had spent 2 or more days with him tested positive at all, although some of us had some sniffles.

It really hits home after the loss of my friend, and I'm so grateful hubby's family and mine all have the opportunity (and pay attention to the science) to be vaxxed and boosted. My nephew would have been devastated if anyone had gotten really sick or died, knowing he was the one who was positive. Sister's fam tries to be careful about balancing the kids' needs for school and sports with safety.


----------



## Johnd

Dennis Griffith said:


> I do question the total cases reported. I think they may be a bit low, and this is based on my experience. I know of 5 people within my extended family that got sick, self tested positive for Covid, and then self isolated to recover. These 5 cases went unreported as these were self tests at home. So, I think the total case count may be higher do to my experience. No proof, just an hypothesis.


My experience is the same here in LA, most of my employees and friends are using home tests these days, none of the tracking mechanisms, as far as I know, are tracking those positives. Thank goodness this strain doesn't seem to be as bad as previous ones.


----------



## Old Corker

My daughter lost her MIL in December to COVID. Her children’s paternal grandmother. It was very sad and somewhat infuriating. They were adamant anti-vaxers. Daughter’s husband was the only one on that side of the family who got vaccinated. They are all getting it now after they lost their mother, grandmother, aunt, wife and caregiver to her husband (FIL) who suffers from Parkinson’s. Such a waste and totally preventable.


----------



## Jovimaple

My friend's kids and wife are all vaxxed. His kids are devastated and very angry with him for refusing to get vaxxed. One of them wrote "parents say they would die for their kids. But would you live for them?"


----------



## Rice_Guy

well said


Jovimaple said:


> My friend's kids and wife are all vaxxed. His kids are devastated and very angry with him for refusing to get vaxxed. One of them wrote "*parents say they would die for their kids. But would you live for them*?"


----------



## Bossbaby

My wife and I got our booster shots on sunday, was scheduled to get it 2 weeks sooner but She,I and my 1 yr old son spent christmas quarantining with covid, The first few days were no fun at all stuck in bed with Fever and a headache from hell, The biggest worry was for our son but he was a champ. The only benefit to being off for 10 days was having the time to rack over all the wines from the fall season.


----------



## Jovimaple

@Bossbaby Glad you all are feeling better and got boosted, AND got your wine taken care of. A great start to 2022!


----------



## mainshipfred

I got my booster and flu shots today. It was the first flu shot I ever got.


----------



## Boatboy24

Regardless of vax status, beliefs, etc; it's frightening to think that almost two years into this, over 800k new cases were reported in the US yesterday alone (according to the CDC). As others have noted, that doesn't include those who tested at home and didn't confirm with a clinical test elsewhere. At that pace, the entire country would've had COVID in about a year, so this thing is certainly morphing and people are getting it repeatedly.


----------



## Newbie Mel

reeflections said:


> Well this is the "Chit Chat" section of the forum with a thread title of "Corona virus day to day" which is something that affects all of us. It would be easy enuf to skip the thread if you are not interested.


My bad. I was thinking maybe the post had something to do with possible contamination of wine due to exposure to the virus. I will be more prudent about what I click on in the future


----------



## Boatboy24

Newbie Mel said:


> My bad. I was thinking maybe the post had something to do with possible contamination of wine due to exposure to the virus. I will be more prudent about what I click on in the future






Oh, gosh! I hope the ABV and low pH can kill the virus if it's present.


----------



## Bossbaby

I've been contemplating making a covid 19 themed label for a batch of elderberry/mulberry wine I made recently but I almost feel its disrespectful to a really nice wine.


----------



## Rice_Guy

Time does magic, as a relational point; if a few seconds of 60% alcohol rubbed on the hands kills a target (alcohol is a dehydrating chemical), if three days in an air drying environment also kills the target, being held a week under 11% alcohol ought to also do the job. , , , The micro courses never made mention of virus transmission being a risk in beer at 5% alcohol.


Boatboy24 said:


> I hope the ABV and low pH can kill the virus if it's present.


----------



## ibglowin

Well they say "there's a snapshot in time in every bottle of wine" or something like that......



Bossbaby said:


> I've been contemplating making a covid 19 themed label for a batch of elderberry/mulberry wine I made recently but I almost feel its disrespectful to a really nice wine.


----------



## stickman

Maybe a good name would be Winevermectin.


----------



## Rice_Guy

_Update from a small rural high school where everyone knows everyone’s business some 40 minutes away from the state capital_:

* First period 7 out of 18 were out (not specified why) this class is freshmen so it is more frustrating, kind of like herding cats with the mrs tells them over and over “keep your mask on”. The older kids are better as 2 or 3 per class out.
* the frustration is bad but this story had a laugh, ,,, one of the kids who was out Monday was back Tuesday all day, he is a “this is just a flue believer” and the parents complained to the school board about mask mandates. Tuesday evening his parents took him to the hospital with a 104 fever.
* the state positive covid numbers have set records Tuesday and again Wednesday

_This is awfully close to home, a cousin in Milwaukee spent Christmas in intensive care with covid, , If I take off the logical microbiology hat, ,,,,,,, I know I will be pissed if I get to feed the cows because of this disease, ,,,, my little brother, ,,, who took over the family farm instead of college is one of the folks who has not been vaccinated. ,,, I pray he is smart._


----------



## Boatboy24




----------

