Corona Virus & Day to Day

[GreginND]

Our local sporting goods store was packed with people today. I don't understand.

 

[Boatboy24]

Our local sporting goods store was packed with people today. I don't understand.

How is that an essential business? Oh, I guess people are feeding their families with the lures and ammo they get there.

 

[Stressbaby]

Total projected deaths are still less than the 1968 Swine Flue that killed 1 million worldwide and 100,000 in the U.S.

Not exactly. It's widely accepted that ~33,800 persons died from influenza 1968-1969. The 100K total is over 3-4 years.
Projected COVID deaths this year ~93K.

 

[GreginND]

How is that an essential business? Oh, I guess people are feeding their families with the lures and ammo they get there.

Guns and ammunition? Just a guess.

 

[sour_grapes]

Our local sporting goods store was packed with people today. I don't understand.

Wait! How do you know?

 

[Boatboy24]

Seafood markets at The Wharf in DC yesterday were shut down because there were so many people and nobody was practicing social distancing.

I feel bad for the employees. Video I saw showed them telling patrons to space out or they'd be shut down. Many of them are showing up to work this morning and just then finding out they don't have a job.

 

[GreginND]

Wait! How do you know?

Reports from several folks driving by saw the parking lot packed full.

 

[ibglowin]

Very interesting research paper coming out of China.

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID...N-6DkFkBFvr8w7Eksl2NhCljuwGrTkILuD_vs7pRZ0zz0

 

[Stressbaby]

Some good news: the UWash projections are now better than they were a couple of days ago. IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Total deaths down to 81K from 93K. Peak resource usage has shifted down and back by 2-3 weeks. These projections assume continued social distancing through May.

 

[Johnd]

Some good news: the UWash projections are now better than they were a couple of days ago. IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Total deaths down to 81K from 93K. Peak resource usage has shifted down and back by 2-3 weeks. These projections assume continued social distancing through May.

The folks behind the scenes at IHME have re-evaluated and adjusted their modeling, resulting in all of the projections getting less severe, and moving time lines closer, pretty much across the board.

 

[Johnd]

Some good news: the UWash projections are now better than they were a couple of days ago. IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Total deaths down to 81K from 93K. Peak resource usage has shifted down and back by 2-3 weeks. These projections assume continued social distancing through May.

Here in LA, where we were supposed to peak sometime this week, we’re now 6 days past the peak. We should now be seeing the results of shutting down nearly everything 3 weeks ago. Hope all other states follow suit. No complaints.

 

[ibglowin]

Very interesting article from the LA Times. On a lighter side note make sure to read to the end.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-05/viagra-discovery-could-treat-coronavirus-patients

 

[Boatboy24]

Here in LA, where we were supposed to peak sometime this week, we’re now 6 days past the peak. We should now be seeing the results of shutting down nearly everything 3 weeks ago. Hope all other states follow suit. No complaints.

I've been pretty confused by some of the projections I'm seeing. In my state of Virginia, the governor locked down non-essentials a week ago, yet the predictions were for infections to peak in late May. The math doesn't add up to me. I'm hopeful that our peak is more like some time next week. However, that doesn't mean we all go back to normal. Continued social distancing will be needed to keep this trend going.

 

[ZebraB]

That study is interesting, especially Favipiravir!. This could be a game changer Japan may have it approved in May. Wonder about US and our astringent FDA guidelines.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china.....
Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.
......
But a Japanese health ministry source suggested the drug was not as effective in people with more severe symptoms. “We’ve given Avigan to 70 to 80 people, but it doesn’t seem to work that well when the virus has already multiplied,” the source told the Mainichi Shimbun....Favipiravir would need government approval for full-scale use on Covid-19 patients, since it was originally intended to treat flu......A health official told the Mainichi the drug could be approved as early as May. “But if the results of clinical research are delayed, approval could also be delayed.”

 

[sour_grapes]

I've been pretty confused by some of the projections I'm seeing. In my state of Virginia, the governor locked down non-essentials a week ago, yet the predictions were for infections to peak in late May. The math doesn't add up to me. I'm hopeful that our peak is more like some time next week. However, that doesn't mean we all go back to normal. Continued social distancing will be needed to keep this trend going.

Where are you getting the late-May projection? The IHME model referenced above has you peaking on April 20th.

 

[Boatboy24]

Where are you getting the late-May projection? The IHME model referenced above has you peaking on April 20th.

It was another projection I saw over the weekend.

Reminds me of the old saying: 'Opinions are like @#$@#(&* - everybody's got one.'

 

[sour_grapes]

Reminds me of the old saying: 'Opinions are like @#$@#(&* - everybody's got one.'

Yup! "And they all stink!"

 

[joeswine]

I don't think anyone has an idea of ,what ,how or when and that kind of rambling is infectious and not productive.
Stores are running low on bascis and don't seem to be filling up at all.
This is the world we live in at present, soon a brighter note the wine cellar is full and the tastings have been good to excellent I'm making raviolis ( homemade) and cooking more than ever.
Oh well , I'm just rambling.

 

[Johnd]

Just a note, the IHME projections have changed in the last day or so. I read an article about why they changed, apparenetly due largely to the model that was created to make the projections. As the data has flowed in, the actual numbers just weren't following the projections created by the model, so it was adjusted. I can only imagine the difficulty in creating a model like that with no precedents, other than what has been seen in other countries, which one do you use? Do you use a blend of their experiences? Do you completely ignore the numbers from China with the same land mass as the US, but 4 times the population? Pretty tough gig for sure. The upside is, hopefully, the refining that has been done to the model is more indicative of how the numbers play out, and this thing us under control sooner rather than later, with a lot less loss of life and economic impacts to us all. Best wishes to you all!!

 

[joeswine]

Amend