Corona Virus & Day to Day

[ZebraB]

Without enough PPE and ample testing how do we let everyone go back to normal

 

[1d10t]

Herd immunity will limit this virus once 60+% of us have been exposed. That is likely to happen before any vaccine can be in widespread use, about 18 months. So unfortunately, we'll have to catch it to be immune.

I just read that about 14%(?) tested positive in a German town.

 

[bstnh1]

It really doesn't look good.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-JE3L1Cc_Xxp2p8SscTak9IiNhTMFvYHL_3tliWt2s4rA

But some researchers say reinfection is an unlikely explanation for patients who test positive twice, and note the possibility that testing errors, and releasing patients from hospitals too early, are more likely to be the cause of patients who retest positive.

“If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,” Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, told The Los Angeles Times in March. “To get reinfected again when you’re in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right.”

 

[bstnh1]

Massachusetts has detected a much higher than expected amount of Covid 19 in municipal sewerage systems leading officials to suspect that many more people have been infected than has been reported. This would mean a lot more people have antibodies against the virus.

 

[Boatboy24]

But some researchers say reinfection is an unlikely explanation for patients who test positive twice, and note the possibility that testing errors, and releasing patients from hospitals too early, are more likely to be the cause of patients who retest positive.

“If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus,” Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, told The Los Angeles Times in March. “To get reinfected again when you’re in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right.”

Wondering if it's a matter of people getting different 'versions'?

 

[bstnh1]

Wondering if it's a matter of people getting different 'versions'?

According to Dr. Fauci, the virus hasn't mutated so there are no other versions.

 

[ibglowin]

60% of the US population (328 million people) is 197 million folks that would need to be exposed to the virus to provide herd immunity. At a death rate of 3% that means we would have to let almost 6 million people die in the US in order to take this approach. We should probably stick to social distancing for awhile.

 

[Rice_Guy]

Some good news, this state has enough testing so that we have eliminated the two week lag for results. (currently 20 state and contract labs testing)
I agree with @ibglowin that we need to plan for a seconday wave. Flattening the curve means we are making the uninflected population exposed to risk longer. Politically are we willing to put resources into keeping the human herd healthy? Will we act wise with our resources/ wealth?

 

[1d10t]

60% of the US population (328 million people) is 197 million folks that would need to be exposed to the virus to provide herd immunity. At a death rate of 3% that means we would have to let almost 6 million people die in the US in order to take this approach. We should probably stick to social distancing for awhile.

The results I mentioned above in Germany puts the death rate much lower than the 3% figure but still there would be too much death to just let this run its course. Oxford thinks they can have a vaccine in 6 months based on current results and it may go into production early so that it will be available before the end of the trials for rapid deployment. 80% effective figure thrown out but way to early to know.

 

[ibglowin]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattl...esting,+tracking,+rolling_4_11_2020&utm_term=

 

[bstnh1]

We do not have any numbers on the number of people who have had the virus beyond those who saw a doctor and/or we admitted to a hospital. Because so many people have very mild symptoms, it's suspected that a lot more people have actually had the virus making the actual death rate well below 1%.

 

[sour_grapes]

We do not have any numbers on the number of people who have had the virus beyond those who saw a doctor and/or we admitted to a hospital. Because so many people have very mild symptoms, it's suspected that a lot more people have actually had the virus making the actual death rate well below 1%.

Ratios have both numerators and denominators. We also don't have good numbers on deaths. Sometimes, people die in their homes, so no cause of death is known. In NYC, about 200 people per day MORE THAN USUAL have been found dead in their homes in recent weeks. (Usually 50/day die at home, recently 250/day.) Total deaths are necessarily sketchy, but likely figures would add 50% (~2500 deaths) to the "official" COVID death toll (~5500).

But, in any event, we don't need to speculate on what a full-scale, widespread infection looks like, regardless of what the "death rate" is. As of yesterday, 0.06% of people in NYC were known to have died of COVID-19. Not the percentage of people who had it, the percentage of people that live there. (And, as mentioned above, this is probably an undercount.) One result is that mass burials of unclaimed bodies in their potter’s field are now taking place 5 days a week. This is just for unclaimed bodies.

I am sure you have your own reasons, known only to you, for seeking, post after post after post after post, to minimize the situation we face. I am attempting to be clear-eyed.

 

[bstnh1]

Ratios have both numerators and denominators. We also don't have good numbers on deaths. Sometimes, people die in their homes, so no cause of death is known. In NYC, about 200 people per day MORE THAN USUAL have been found dead in their homes in recent weeks. (Usually 50/day die at home, recently 250/day.) Total deaths are necessarily sketchy, but likely figures would add 50% (~2500 deaths) to the "official" COVID death toll (~5500).

But, in any event, we don't need to speculate on what a full-scale, widespread infection looks like, regardless of what the "death rate" is. As of yesterday, 0.06% of people in NYC were known to have died of COVID-19. Not the percentage of people who had it, the percentage of people that live there. (And, as mentioned above, this is probably an undercount.) One result is that mass burials of unclaimed bodies in their potter’s field are now taking place 5 days a week. This is just for unclaimed bodies.

I am sure you have your own reasons, known only to you, for seeking, post after post after post after post, to minimize the situation we face. I am attempting to be clear-eyed.

No, I'm not seeking to minimize the situation. But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion. As of Saturday, there have been 533,378 confirmed Covid19 cases in the U.S. There have been 20,601 documented Covid19 and pneumonia deaths. Because many people exhibit very mild or no symptoms from Covid19, it's assumed the number of cases is much higher than what has been documented. Contrast those numbers with the numbers for the current seasonal flu season which, by all measures, has been milder than most. CDC estimates there have been between 39 and 56 million cases of the seasonal flu so far this season. Because the flu is not a reportable disease, the CDC develops estimates based on what data they have. CDC also estimates that there have been between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to the seasonal flu this season. CDC further estimates that there have been between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations for the flu and between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths from the seasonal flu through April 11th. Yes, Covid19 appears to be much more contagious than the seasonal flu. But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion. There is plenty of hype and fear mongering trying to convince us that Covid19 is going to bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to. But that's all it is - hype and fear mongering.

 

[Rice_Guy]

Now you tell me, and I have been in a rental snaking out a toilet line.

Massachusetts has detected a much higher than expected amount of Covid 19 in municipal sewerage systems leading officials to suspect that many more people have been infected than has been reported. This would mean a lot more people have antibodies against the virus.

It is fair to say a lot of this is fear mongering. From the start we knew we have a strong technical base and could minimize death rate.
.
The BBC comment that this is primarily a political problem rings true.
.
listening to “Hidden Brain” (NPR podcast) this week pointed out that some cultures dislike rules/ ie doing things for the common good,, Instead of “my” free choice. Therefore Italy and Spain have a significantly higher death rate than China Or Singapore.

 

[mainshipfred]

With my lack of medical knowledge and quite frankly lack of interest in learning about COVID 19 I should really stay out of this. This is not an attempt to down play the severity and I'm doing my part to protect myself, my family and my employees. However mathematically I can't get the numbers to add up. If using 330,000,000 people in the US and rounding up the total confirmed and presumptive cases to 500,000 and the total deaths rounded up to 20,000 as of yesterday's CDC count the death rate in the US is .0061% and only .15% have been confirmed or presumptive. The death rate of confirmed case is 4% so if the number of deaths is based on 4% of course you will see death rates in the millions but this is not accurate information. If this disease is as infectious as implied the number of positive unconfirmed cases could probably be increased 10 fold if not more further reducing the percentage of the death rate. Again I'm trying to do my part, social distancing is absolutely putting this thing in check and it is a real problem. I just feel the numbers are not representing what is real.

 

[Stressbaby]

No, I'm not seeking to minimize the situation. But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion. As of Saturday, there have been 533,378 confirmed Covid19 cases in the U.S. There have been 20,601 documented Covid19 and pneumonia deaths. Because many people exhibit very mild or no symptoms from Covid19, it's assumed the number of cases is much higher than what has been documented. Contrast those numbers with the numbers for the current seasonal flu season which, by all measures, has been milder than most. CDC estimates there have been between 39 and 56 million cases of the seasonal flu so far this season. Because the flu is not a reportable disease, the CDC develops estimates based on what data they have. CDC also estimates that there have been between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to the seasonal flu this season. CDC further estimates that there have been between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations for the flu and between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths from the seasonal flu through April 11th. Yes, Covid19 appears to be much more contagious than the seasonal flu. But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion. There is plenty of hype and fear mongering trying to convince us that Covid19 is going to bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to. But that's all it is - hype and fear mongering.

A couple of serious flaws/fallacies here...

First, we don't shut down the country for influenza. The COVID numbers are held lower as a result of shutting everything down.

The second relates to case fatality rates and the definition of cases. The CFR for influenza uses a clinical case definition, "influenza-like illness" (link). It's true that a number of people with COVID may be minimally or asymptomatic, and that the CFR including those as cases is unknown. However, that number is also unknown for influenza, because that's not how we define cases. The COVID CFR using a case definition analgous to influenza is known, within some range, and it is on the order of 10X higher than influenza.

And finally the Slippery Slope Fallacy - You conclude by saying that it will "bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to." If anyone said that in this thread, I missed it.

 

[sour_grapes]

But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion.


But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion.

Color me confused, then. The numbers you cite indicate a far, far higher fatality rate for COVID than the flu. But you temper that with the assumption (your term) that there are many asymptomatic COVID cases. Leading you to conclude that there are "no statistics to support" the conclusion that COVID has a higher fatality rate?

But again, we don't need to speculate what it would look like if the virus circulates widely. We already know what it looks like in New York, and that is with a shutdown.

 

[Johnd]

I don’t subscribe to media hype, ever, and have spent an inordinate amount of my time trying to stay gainfully informed.
It is my opinion, and only mine, that there is no such thing as acceptable losses as it relates to this virus. Whensomeone starts to minimize the life of another human as an acceptable number, it saddens my heart, particularly at this time of the year.
What sort of death numbers need to be generated before we start to care for one another?

 

[Newlyretired]

No, I'm not seeking to minimize the situation. But I like to deal on the basis of facts rather than emotion. As of Saturday, there have been 533,378 confirmed Covid19 cases in the U.S. There have been 20,601 documented Covid19 and pneumonia deaths. Because many people exhibit very mild or no symptoms from Covid19, it's assumed the number of cases is much higher than what has been documented. Contrast those numbers with the numbers for the current seasonal flu season which, by all measures, has been milder than most. CDC estimates there have been between 39 and 56 million cases of the seasonal flu so far this season. Because the flu is not a reportable disease, the CDC develops estimates based on what data they have. CDC also estimates that there have been between 18 million and 26 million medical visits due to the seasonal flu this season. CDC further estimates that there have been between 410,000 and 740,000 hospitalizations for the flu and between 24,000 and 62,000 deaths from the seasonal flu through April 11th. Yes, Covid19 appears to be much more contagious than the seasonal flu. But as far as being more deadly, there are no statistics to support such a conclusion. There is plenty of hype and fear mongering trying to convince us that Covid19 is going to bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to. But that's all it is - hype and fear mongering.

Wow if I say more i would be banned for life.

 

[bstnh1]

And finally the Slippery Slope Fallacy - You conclude by saying that it will "bring about the end of normal life that we've grown accustomed to." If anyone said that in this thread, I missed it.

I did not see that conclusion here. But I've heard it said in many different forms by various medical and non-medical people on TV. Some have made it sound like life as we know it will be brutally altered - ie .. stadium seating will be feet apart, concerts will no longer involve people crowded together, airline seats will be feet apart, we will no longer shake hands, etc., etc. IMHO, none of that will occur.