Napa and Sonoma wildfires

[richmke]

Any guess if enough vines were damaged to affect the cost of juice over the next few years while replacement vines get established?

 

[Rocky]

Any guess if enough vines were damaged to affect the cost of juice over the next few years while replacement vines get established?

Rich, the fires will surely not have a positive effect on prices. Where the vineyards have been destroyed it will require at least 3 years for any meaningful production. I am planning to stock up on kits that I might make this year and early next year. There is still South America and Italy but I expect to see upward pressure on pricing from California. I realize that this sounds cold and self serving, but it is the reality.

 

[pgentile]

Report on 23 wineries, with photo gallery.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/...he-22-wineries-damaged-by-wine-country-fires/

 

[GaDawg]

Rich, the fires will surely not have a positive effect on prices. Where the vineyards have been destroyed it will require at least 3 years for any meaningful production. I am planning to stock up on kits that I might make this year and early next year. There is still South America and Italy but I expect to see upward pressure on pricing from California. I realize that this sounds cold and self serving, but it is the reality.

Rocky, I agree, I also think lack of supply in California will also increase prices in other regions because it is a world market.

I would love to know how bad you believe it will be. How many kits do you usually make in a year and how many are you ordering? Thanks in advance.

 

[GaDawg]

What research has been done is largely in Australia, where bush fires have been increasing dramatically since 2002. The Australian Wine Research Institute publishes a fact sheet for growers on grapevine recovery from fire. Slight damage, such as some shriveled leaves, has little impact on growth or fruit production the next season. Medium intensity damage, in which the vine is scorched but has green wood visible under the bark, results in a reduction of fruit. Vines also don’t have to be on fire to be destroyed; damage can occur from heat radiating from adjacent burning forest or buildings. The grimmest prognosis comes with high intensity damage. If a substantial part of the trunk is damaged, “no remedial treatment is justified.” If a small slice into the vine wood shows brown or discolored tissue, you’ve got “tissue necrosis, organelle leakage, and vessel or cell death.” Even slightly damaged vines are vulnerable to pathogens like fungi. And you have to give up or start over.
http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...w_the_fires_might_affect_california_wine.html

 

[Rocky]

Rocky, I agree, I also think lack of supply in California will also increase prices in other regions because it is a world market.

I would love to know how bad you believe it will be. How many kits do you usually make in a year and how many are you ordering? Thanks in advance.

Dawg, I plan to make a full 200 gallons next year with both kits and juice buckets. I also buy a few lugs of grapes and make my own grape packs. I am thinking of 10-15 kits and the rest juice with grapes packs.

 

[Stressbaby]

NYT article from yesterday on the fires and effect on the wines:
Wildfires Spared the Vineyards, but the Wines Could Suffer

 

[4score]

NYT article from yesterday on the fires and effect on the wines:
Wildfires Spared the Vineyards, but the Wines Could Suffer

That was interesting....thanks for the link.

 

[pgentile]

Major fires are out and/or under control.

"The Napa Valley Vintners trade group reports that while wine inventories from previous vintages were generally unharmed and losses were minimal, the volume of the 2017 vintage will be lower than average; “How much lower is undetermined,” the group said on its website, “but early, anecdotal estimates project shortages to be comparable to other years affected by the common irregularities of farming, like drought, frost damage, etc. Napa Valley accounts for just 4 percent of all the wine made in California. Even if there are some losses for the 2017 vintage, there will be virtually no impact on the greater volume of the California wine industry. While some vineyards may need replanting, the actual number is not yet known and may not be understood until future growing seasons.”"

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/10/...ffectively-contained-the-wine-country-blazes/