Corona Virus & Day to Day

[hounddawg]

At the end of the day, it’s one of things I’m glad we have in common. We have a walking trail near our house. Generally people are non responsive and unfriendly-we simply lack deeper commonality. It’s weird to me that people easily ignore you even if you say “hi”.... @hounddawg - I’m glad we have this in common.

me too, and what you said about people ignoring you when you say hi, that's sad, But with trail nearby that to me sounds like heaven to me,,, anything that you and your's enjoy is all that truly matters, a stroll through nature is so calming, so therapeutic, it souths one's soul, an yes it is a honor to me to run across another vinter that has that connection with nature
Dawg

 

[sour_grapes]

“Explaining a joke is like dissecting a frog. You understand it better but the frog dies in the process.” ― E.B. White

At the risk of killing the frog, I just wanted to make sure @crushday understood me:

Ok... I’m glad I Iive where I love.

I am sure your wife is relieved to read that, too!

At the end of the day, it’s one of things I’m glad we have in common. We have a walking trail near our house.

You wrote that you are glad you live where you love, whereas I suspect you meant to say that you love where you live. The former has a different meaning than the latter!

 

[hounddawg]

“Explaining a joke is like dissecting a frog. You understand it better but the frog dies in the process.” ― E.B. White

At the risk of killing the frog, I just wanted to make sure @crushday understood me:







You wrote that you are glad you live where you love, whereas I suspect you meant to say that you love where you live. The former has a different meaning than the latter!

no offence but are you even understandable,,, lol
Dawg

 

[GreginND]

For those who are interested, I have been charting the data from Worldometer for some time when people started to compare Italy with the US. I also have been looking at Spain while it was a hotspot. It appears, based on the number of new daily cases, that we are on the cusp of it starting to slow down here in the US. For the first time yesterday, the number of new cases reported was less than the day before. IF that trend continues (a few more days of data will make me more confident), then we could see the rise in infections slow down over the next couple of weeks. Once we hit a peak of infections and start to see more recoveries, it will still be maybe 3-4 weeks before things start to be safer to open up. My prediction is we are probably looking at early May before we can even start to think about getting back to operating as a country again.

 

[hounddawg]

For those who are interested, I have been charting the data from Worldometer for some time when people started to compare Italy with the US. I also have been looking at Spain while it was a hotspot. It appears, based on the number of new daily cases, that we are on the cusp of it starting to slow down here in the US. For the first time yesterday, the number of new cases reported was less than the day before. IF that trend continues (a few more days of data will make me more confident), then we could see the rise in infections slow down over the next couple of weeks. Once we hit a peak of infections and start to see more recoveries, it will still be maybe 3-4 weeks before things start to be safer to open up. My prediction is we are probably looking at early May before we can even start to think about getting back to operating as a country again.View attachment 59655View attachment 59656View attachment 59657View attachment 59658View attachment 59659that

i just seen on the news, (((they are not super reliable to say the least))) that in china, it is being reported that a reinfection rate of 3 to 10%,,, and yes i am very interested in your research, dad;s 86, mom 76, i am 59 triple bypass, tracheostomy, diabetes type 2, an more, brother was exposed to chemical agents in baghdad 02 $ 03, we locked down in mid-february , thank you for your research,
Dawg

 

[ZebraB]

There is devil in the details. CA and TN still have case count growth and several cities are warning potential new hot spots. (Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit and possibly LA). However, China's example of a six-week lockdown is a reason for optimism for some areas of the country. Outside of Wuhan opened up in Feb, but Wuhan is now just opening up.

US has been testing over 100K people per day. The current test takes 5-days to get back results, but a 15 minute test was just approved by the FDA. Abbot Labs says it can deliver 50K rapid result tests per day beginning next week. So I anticipate that the case count will go higher just because we will be testing more people and more rapidly.

Below is a link that are government's list of disinfectants and timelines. Star San is not listed, nor does the company claim any antiviral effectiveness.

https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2
Some of these timelines are longer than practical. So we have set up a "hot zone" for incoming packages. 3 days before opening and then decontaminate the insides if practical or wait another 3 days before bringing in the house. Stay safe

 

[hounddawg]

There is devil in the details. CA and TN still have case count growth and several cities are warning potential new hot spots. (Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit and possibly LA). However, China's example of a six-week lockdown is a reason for optimism for some areas of the country. Outside of Wuhan opened up in Feb, but Wuhan is now just opening up.

US has been testing over 100K people per day. The current test takes 5-days to get back results, but a 15 minute test was just approved by the FDA. Abbot Labs says it can deliver 50K rapid result tests per day beginning next week. So I anticipate that the case count will go higher just because we will be testing more people and more rapidly.

Below is a link that are government's list of disinfectants and timelingloves each and every time, es. Star San is not listed, nor does the company claim any antiviral effectiveness.

https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2
Some of these timelines are longer than practical. So we have set up a "hot zone" for incoming packages. 3 days before opening and then decontaminate the insides if practical or wait another 3 days before bringing in the house. Stay safe

yes i too have places where things go before they enter the house, not to mention they are after a few days are opened out side, the the contents get the same put away in a different area before it is messed with, using exame ,gloves each and every time, i even set up a dry place for USPS, USP, FEDEX TO DROP OF ANYTHING COMING IN,
Dawg

 

[stickman]

I thought this program had some interesting information and data, some of the best I've seen so far at least in my opinion. Of concern is the aerosol that is emitted from people even as they talk, some of the material settles quickly, but some very fine material continues to float around the room for long periods of time. We can't overlook the packages and mail etc. that we bring into the home, but for most of us, going to the store is still probably one of the highest risks we take. The original link and YouTube link are below.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/

 

[mainshipfred]

About the only thing we are able to do around here is walk the trails at the parks and play golf. On Saturday I tried to book a tee time for Sunday and there wasn't one to be had. Every golf course within a 50 mile radius was either booked solid or closed and most were simply booked, at least until 5:00. The only restriction VA had for golf courses is they can't open the clubhouse except for the pro shop with the 10 person maximum.

 

[hounddawg]

I thought this program had some interesting information and data, some of the best I've seen so far at least in my opinion. Of concern is the aerosol that is emitted from people even as they talk, some of the material settles quickly, but some very fine material continues to float around the room for long periods of time. We can't overlook the packages and mail etc. that we bring into the home, but for most of us, going to the store is still probably one of the highest risks we take. The original link and YouTube link are below.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/

that is some spooky info,,,,
Dawg

 

[BernardSmith]

Rice_Guy, I was on a conference call the other day with among other people a doctor who works in a NYC hospital treating Covid-19 patients. He said that masks for the public are not really effective in the ways that people imagine - first because the virus is essentially not airborne so the problem is that you and I bring the virus into our mouths, eyes and noses by touch. In a hospital setting nurses and doctors might be sneezed on, coughed on and have other fluids from patients splashed on and so the more effective N95 masks are necessary (if you intubate a patient, for example, your face is inches from their mouth. However, where a mask IS effective is that it prevents the WEARER from touching two out of the three access points for the virus (mouth and nose). BUT if your mask is contaminated today and you wear it again tomorrow without sterilizing it you may be at greater risk than not wearing one because if you touch it and contaminate your fingers and then rub your eye or stick your finger in your mouth or nose then you have introduced the virus into your body in precisely the way it needs to reproduce and disturb your immune response which is , it seems, what is making you "ill" with this virus.

The other thing the doctor was saying was that social distance is not REALLY about protecting you and I from becoming infected. Sure it works to help that BUT the real issue is NOT personal health. It's public health and this is the model he used: He said that the risk to you and me if we go outside and mingle might be 1 in 1000. That risk is not tiny but it's not terrifyingly high either. Now in a community of 1 million people with the risk being 1 in 1000 , 1000 people will CERTAINLY become infected. And at this time if 1000 people are infected 500 will require ICU or ER care. Five hundred beds and the number of nurses that requires and doctors to take care ONLY of people suffering from Covid-19 will very quickly overwhelm hospital resources - but if you have 8 million people or 300 million people then you can see the problem.. So again, the real issues are not about personal health (your or my health in this epidemic) but about how the society can take care of (or not) the tens of thousands of folk who are almost certain to need critical care (and if someone needs a ventilator because they cannot breath by themselves, that person needs to be sedated and so needs constant supervision... and that's where the problems are... so for most of us IF IF you have to go out and IF you have to touch something another person has touched you MUST wash your hands with soap and water AND best to try to stay indoors and /or away from everyone while anyone might be shedding virus even while asymptomatic. And as the CDC says IF we can all cooperate to turn the curve of cases from rising to falling then doctors and nurses and hospitals and first responders will have the resources to deal with those who become infected (albeit that a percentage of those with other underlying medical conditions may not recover but if the hospitals do not have the resources they need to treat the cases that they receive then a far greater percentage of those infected are likely to die - so this is a public health problem more than a personal health problem.

 

[opus345]

Remember the models and forecasts are only as good as the assumptions and the forecasts may change as new data is received.

"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months."

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[opus345]

Like this guys perspective on data modeling.

"Brian Goebel: Making Sense of COVID-19 Data, Graphs and Models."

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/br...e_of_covid_19_data_graphs_and_models_20200330

 

[hounddawg]

this is a exponential health threat ,,, NYC & Jersey are just larger scale patterns of urban patterns that then flow down to eventually to very rural areas, so, a very big issue living further from more dense areas, are in the path, just at a slower rate, which means hygiene and social responsibility and personal distance is essential, to try to break this chain of events, containment is impossible, so social behaviour and adherence to protocol is key to try to slow these cycles, to give civilianization a chance, to come up with the means to counteract this threat to modern civilisation this is in no way a area problem,,, It is a every square inch of this planet, every style of life, ever creed, ever belief, ever race'S problem with the only factor of time and of hygiene. in which it will affect us all. Not anything in my personal opinion is in no way meant to be political, but a common sense problem, rich, poor, inbetween, this is a humankind moment, we either all come together or we descend back to primal, uneducational despair, this is a moment in time for all civilizational differences to come together as one,,, All agenda;s to be set aside for the benefit of modern society, at this point mask and gloves are played down in order to protect our only chance, the first line is the medical and scientific community , whom are immersing themselves into this virus in order to try to understanding,,, This so they can figure out cures and vaccines for this lipid enveloped virus,,, Like with hygiene and hand washing, multiple clothes washing is a must, So as is a staging area for incoming safe place transitioning for packages, mail, shoes clothes, to help make a barrier from the outer world to your inner world (((home)))be safe everyone, god bless, good luck, and best wishes from my heart to yawl one and all,,,
just my 2 cents
Dawg

 

[Rice_Guy]

@BernardSmith well thought out hazard analysis.
Yes! ! ,, The cellulose ones I use working in insulation either leak below or fog up the glasses. A mask is a social message to the 4 school age kids walking down the sidewalk ,,, to the four adults walking 4 dogs last night ,,, I don’t like the social message that this is not real, , as listening to Rush yesterday where he po pos experts who do COVID infection modeling.
@stickman excellent Japanese documentary! , , , I wonder who is getting sold what when I compare Fox vs CNN vs good morning america. , , I miss the fairness doctrine when I could trust all TV and not ask who is selling me.

 

[1d10t]

He said that masks for the public are not really effective in the ways that people imagine - first because the virus is essentially not airborne

This is being called into question by current research from the University of Nebraska.

 

[BernardSmith]

This is being called into question by current research from the University of Nebraska.

1d10t, Hmmm , I'd love to see exactly what this paper is in fact suggesting (rather than a reporter's report) but my albeit very limited understanding is that while those who are infected are shedding the virus and that their coughing and sneezing project the virus in microscopic and larger globules of liquid the fact that the virus is suspended in the air for any length of time is not in and of itself a problem. The problem is only when the virus has access to your lungs through your mouth , nose and tear ducts (eyes). It is POSSIBLE (I'd say PROBABLE) that in hospital settings you do NEED full protective gear but if you are outside in the open or in a room with no one who is shedding viruses is constantly shedding 24/7 in a fixed and closed locale (as in an ICU or ER or other hospital ward) then the actual danger or risk of infection is small if not tiny. I
would think that the rate of cases (despite the lack of routine testing) would be much greater if aerosol infections were a likely cause. But if their data suggests that the risk itself is large I would love to see their methods and findings.

 

[1d10t]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2

 

[hounddawg]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20039446v2

so far even the CDC & WHO recommendations has been a shifting target, this variante of the virus is a completely new ball game, yesterdays yes's can become tomorrow's no's,,,
Dawg

 

[1d10t]

A skeptical person might think that the CDC has been flat out lying to keep the general public from competing for the N95 masks. Chinese officials have been on record as saying the masks are necessary.